Course Syllabus Romanias Security Dilemma in the Cold War

Secret Diplomacy, Clandestine War, and the Significance of Intelligence Larry L. Watts
More than two decades after the fall of Communism writings on the Communist period in Romania whether appearing in Romania, elsewhere in Europe, or in North America remain overwhelmingly and often uniquely focused on the internal dynamics of the regime and its domestic policies. Moreover, myths regarding Romania that were purposefully created during the Communist era for example, that Romania was a Soviet Trojan horse or that the country lacked strategic significance for Soviet security policy continue to appear even in specialist literature. On one level this course serves as a corrective to the currentlypredominate narrow and often skewed view of recent Romania history. Addressing the security dilemma faced by Romanian elites preceding and during Cold War, this course focuses on the international dynamics and foreign and security policies of various Romanian regimes. On another level, this course addresses the impact of intelligence on Romanias Cold War international relations and foreign and security policies, and on Western interpretations of Romanian behavior. As much of that foreign policy was carried out through secret diplomacy, and countered by clandestine measures, the role of intelligence is of particular importance for understanding central dynamics of recent Romanian history. Thus, Romanias Security Dilemma in the Cold War introduces intelligence as an organized undertaking and examines its performance from various country perspectives in relation to Romanias strategic dilemmas and responses during most of the twentieth century. Topics addressed will include Cold War history, competing security and strategic interests, the intelligence cycle, endemic problems associated with intelligence analysis and counterintelligence, and various forms of covert action, with specific examples regarding Romania, the Warsaw Pact, the Soviet Union, and the US. Students will learn how the intelligence function works, its limitations and vulnerabilities, and how and why it fails, against the backdrop of Romanian security and foreign policy, its methods of secret diplomacy, the strategic aims it sought, and the political and intelligence countermeasures adopted by the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact to combat them.
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Course Requirements Students will be required to write one paper of eight (8) to ten (10) pages based on the assigned readings. The paper does not require additional reading. Students may choose from the list of proposed topics or may devise a paper topic of their own choice by submitting a proposed topic in writing and indicating how this topic will draw upon the assigned reading. The instructors written approval is required before a student may write on a topic she or he as designed. In writing papers, students should draw upon the assigned reading by specific references to assigned texts and the use of footnotes. Students may also draw on in-class lectures, as well as other reading with appropriate citations. There is no set format for writing the paper. Students are not expected to respond to topics in the particular order set out by the questions stated in the essay topic. Students are expected to present an analytical scheme that addresses the entire set of issues raised in a particular topic. Papers should have a clear analytical structure and also provide evidence for arguments made and conclusions drawn. The basis for grading a paper will be 1) the internal logic and consistency of a paper and 2) the strength of supporting evidence. The paper deadline is 18 January. Papers should be handed in on time so that late submissions do not have unfair advantage over prompt submissions. Late papers will be penalized by 25%, whether late by one day or one month. Paper Topics 1. What was the Romanian response to the imposition of Soviet military and political control during the Cold War? Give three (3) examples of Romanian response(s) and describe their impact on Soviet control, intra-Pact dynamics, and the East-West confrontation. 2. What are the main problems and vulnerabilities of the intelligence cycle? Give three (3) examples of how they were manifest in the interpretation of Romanian political intent and behavior during the Cold War. 3. Describe the nature and aim of active measures/disinformation using three (3) examples related to three or more of the following states: Romania, Egypt, Pakistan, USA, Hungary, USSR. 4. Why does anomaly cause such difficulty for intelligence analysts? Give three (3) examples of how failure to comprehend anomaly impacted US interpretation of Romania policy and behavior during 1956-1961, 19681971, and 1971-1975.
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Class Schedule Wednesday, October 12 Week #1: Intelligence and Romanias Security Dilemma Before Communism. Readings: Larry Watts, Fere te-m Doamn , de prieteni: R zboiul clandestine al blocului sovietic cu Romnia, Bucure ti, RAO, 2011, chapter 1, pp. 31-58. Wednesday, October 19 Week #2: Covert Action and the Comintern Readings: 1st Reading from Supplementary Readings, pp. 1-15 (Richelson Covert Action in Sword and Shield: Soviet Intelligence and Security Apparatus) Wednesday, October 26 Week #3: Clandestine Operations and the Manipulation of Internal Problems Readings: Watts, chapter 6, pp. 167-188; (Optional: 2nd Reading, pp. 16-39 Documents 1, 3, 22, 24, 48, 114 in Cojocaru, COMINTERNUL i originile moldovenismului and Document 246 in Arhivele de Stat, 23 August 1944 Documente: 1939-1943, vol. I) Wednesday, November 2 Week #4: Counterintelligence and Perception: Interpreting Anomaly Readings: Watts, chapter 8, pp. 210-234; 3rd Reading, pp. 40-50 (Bagley, Bane of Counterintelligence: Our Penchant for Self-Deception in Johnson and Wirtz, eds, Strategic Intelligence: Windows Into A Secret World An Anthology) Wednesday, November 9 Week #5: Subversive Diplomacy versus Covert Action: Mediating Away Soviet Advantage Readings: Watts, chapter 11, pp. 283-301 Wednesday, November 16 Week #6: Active Measures and Disinformation: Soviet and Warsaw Pact Practices Readings: Watts, chapter 12, pp. 302-332; (Optional: 4th Reading, pp. 51-63 (Dziak The CounterintelligenceActive Measures Tradition in Chekisty: A History of the
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KGB; Mitrokhin KGB Active Measures in Southwest Asia in 1980-82) Wednesday, November 23 (Week #8) Class does not meet Wednesday, November 30 Week #7: Roots of Intelligence Failure and the Invasion Crisis of 1968 Readings: 5th Reading, pp. 64-78 (Betts Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable in Johnson and Wirtz) Wednesday, December 7 Week #9: Ambiguity, Deception, and the Manipulation of Perceptions Readings: Watts, chapter 16, pp. 411-432; (Optional: 6th Reading, pp. 79-84 (Words of Estimative Probability in Diane E. Chido, editor, Structured Analysis of Competing Hypothesis: Theory and Application) Wednesday, December 14 Week #10: Secret Diplomacy, Intelligence and Covert Action Readings: 7th Reading, pp. 85-95 (Herman Intelligence and Diplomacy in Intelligence Power in Peace and War) Wednesday, December 21 (Week #12) Class does not meet Wednesday, January 4 Week #11: Executive Control and Countering Active Measures with Transparency Readings: Watts, chapter 22, pp. 529-558; (Optional: Review 3rd Reading, pp. 40-50 (Bagley Bane of Counterintelligence) Wednesday, January 11 Week #13: Propaganda, Penetration, and Disinformation Operations in the Early 1970s Readings: 8th Reading, pp. 96-106 (Bittman Disinformation Mills in The KGB and Soviet Disinformation: An Insiders View) Wednesday, January 18 PAPERS DUE! Week #14: Intelligence & Diplomacy: Mediation, and Confidence-Building Measures
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