Energy Security:

Technology and Policy

Melanie Kenderdine
NCSE Energy for a Sustainable and Secure Future
Washington, DC
February 27, 2006
Energy Trends

Fossil Fuel Consumption, 2002/2025

(% increase/decrease 2002/2025)

FSU/ E. Europe
N. America W. Europe
+40% +63%
Ind. Asia

+49% +102% +43%

Mid. East Dev. Asia

C/S. America +146%

+113% Africa

+172%

Oil Gas Coal Energy Demand

Energy Trends

% Oil/Gas/Coal Reserves By Region

36
N. America
27 E. Europe
57
7
26 W. Europe
18
9
5 3 36 30

3 8
Asia/Oceani
Middle East
C/S. America 8 4
2 6 8 6
Africa

Oil Gas Coal

Energy Supply
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook, 2002
Geopolitics

OPEC Imports by Region 2001/2025

60 Industrialized World Developing World +118%

Total World
50

40
+71% +204%

30
+95% +130%
+60% +232%
20
+50% +633%
10

d g
a
ze ld in
ric pe ia li im na or op
0 e ro As al ir a R hi
W el
Am E u
ot st i fic C of e v
th . T du c t l D
or W In Pa R
e s
o ta OPEC Reliance
N T
Geopolitics

Middle East Oil Imports of the US

and its Strategic Allies
77%
80
70 53%
60
50
40

30 13%
20
10

0
US OECD Europe Japan

OPEC Reliance
Geopolitics
Reserve Distribution of LNG Suppliers*

Non-OPEC OPEC OPEC < Non-OPEC

90+ tcf 90+ tcf 90+ tcf < 90+ tcf

Norway
1770 tcf
Russia

46 tcf
2812 tcf
Indonesia
331 tcf Malaysia
Brunei
Trinidad Iran
Venezuela Iraq
Egypt
Peru Saudi Arabia
Algeria
Bolivia UAE Oman
Libya
Nigeria Yemen Australia
Angola Qatar
Eq. Guinea
Gas Cartel?
 US LNG Suppliers,
Geopolitics

2003 (bcf/yr.)

378

Trinidad
Algeria
Qatar
Nigeria
Oman
Malaysia
53
50
14
9
3

Source: Global LNG Market, EIA, 2003 United States

Geopolitics

LNG as Percent of Total Regional

Gas Consumption

1% 8% 97%

North Western Asia

America Europe

Supply Options Will Drive Features of Regional Markets

Market Differentiators
 Energy Security Challenges

Challenge #1 Challenge #2 Challenge #3 Challenge #4

The uneven Environmental The Key and
distribution of stress technologies expanding
oil and gas increases the and infrastructures
supplies and potential for fissionable required to
productive regional material move energy to
capacity, non- political associated demand
assured access instability and with the centers
to those tensions nuclear increases their
supplies, and power fuel vulnerability to
volatile energy cycle raise malevolent
prices threaten the specter threats
national, of nuclear
regional, and weapons
world stability proliferation
and economies
 CHALLENGE #1 POLICY OBJECTIVE TECHNOLOGY PATHWAY

Gas-to-liquids
The uneven Develop alternatives
distribution of oil to oil Biofuels
and gas supplies Diversify oil Heavy oil/tar sands
and productive resources
capacity, non- Reduce oil demand Higher efficiency
assured access to vehicles
Change
those supplies, transportation Hydrogen vehicles/
and volatile paradigm infrastructure
energy prices
threaten national, Increase/ enhance Unconventional/ ultra-
domestic natural gas deepwater gas
regional, and
supply Efficient turbines, end
world stability
use
and economies
Access stranded gas LNG safety, efficiency,
resources economics
Challenge

A Hemispheric Oil Strategy

Canada: 187
billion barrels
equivalent tar sands

Venezuela: 272
billion barrels
heavy oil

Saudi Arabia: 250 billion barrels

oil reserves Diversify Supply
Challenge

Developing Conventional/ Unconventional

Gas Resources

303
Technically
Recoverable
Resource Base
1,969 Tcf
284

329

Enhance Gas Supply

Challenges
Challenge #1: Developing Conventional/
% World Gas Reserves
Unconventional By Region
Gas Resources
GTI Project
Technology Management Idea Generation
Dissemination 75 Advisors
20 Companies

200 Papers 40 Major

Methane from Cost: $140 M over 10 yrs Contracts
Coal Seams Managed
CBM now 10% of domestic
Publication $140 million
100 Reports production
investment

Workshops, 3 Major Field

Forums, Symposia Experiments
12,000 50 Research
Attendees Wells

Demonstration Proof of Concept

Supply
 CHALLENGE #2 POLICY OBJECTIVE TECHNOLOGY
PATHWAY
Advanced vehicles
Increase the Combined heat and
efficiency of fossil power
fuel use
Environmental Industrial processes
stress increases Efficient power
the potential for generation
regional political Promote carbon Capture ready
capture and technologies
instability and
sequestration from
tensions Geologic reservoir
fossil fuel use
development
Capital cost reduction
for nuclear/renewables
Develop carbonless
technologies Nuclear spent fuel
management
Advanced modular
reactors
Challenge
Greenhouse Gas Stabilization Triangle
There are 15 options that would achieve a “wedge” each
of carbon avoidance. These include:
16
14
C / Yr.
4Gt
-- Buildings
12 t o 1 -- Coal to CCGT

r ea se -- CCS
n c
ne i
-- Efficient Power
10 li
i gh t -- Vehicle Efficiency

8 Stra -- Nuclear Fission

-- Wind Electricity

6
4 Constant carbon at 7GtC/Yr
2 for 50 years

0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Emissions Reductions
 US Policy/Technology Choices in
New Energy Law
• Promotion of LNG Imports
• Public Subsidies for Coal and Nuclear Power
Generation
• Market intervention for IGCC with carbon capture
“capability,” not carbon capture “ready”
• Selection of Hydrogen as the Preferred
Technology for “Oil Independence”

• Technology Development without “Carrots or

Sticks” for Deployment
 Additional US Policy Focus is Needed

• Research to monetize smaller stranded gas fields

utilizing CNG and other gas maritime transport technologies
• Deployment of technologies to promote more efficient use of gas
• Promotion of IGCC technology development, with carbon capture
• More robust R&D support for ultra-supercritical power
technologies
• Accelerated and effective R&D in carbon sequestration
• Development of technologies that will promote fossil fuel
interchangeability for power generation and transportation
• Promotion of methane capture as a near-term, low cost means of
addressing climate change
• Development and deployment of more efficient gas turbines, fuel
cells, and gas turbine/fuel cell hybrids
• More robust support for methane hydrates research
Challenge

Holding Fossil Use at 2000 Levels: Can Non-

Fossil Sources Make Up the Shortfall?

1200 Fossil Non-Fossil Current

Non-Fossil
1000 Energy Use:
1024
60 Quads
800

600 727

400
494
200

0
2% /YR 2.5% /YR 1.5% YR

Alternatives Investments
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook, 2001