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.

.


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.

c
c

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(380 360) (300-280)
%25
.

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()
(1) .
.

Source: D.A.J. Rand, R.M. Dell ,Hydrogen energy challenges and prospects, The Royal
Society of Chemistry, 2008.

:(1-1)
c
c

c
Source: D.A.J. Rand, R.M. Dell ,Hydrogen energy challenges and prospects, The Royal
Society of Chemistry, 2008.

:(2-1)
:
.

. (Hydrogen economy)

c
c

(2)

.

c


.
( )
.

,

.

.(3)

c
c

c
Source: A.-G. Collot, Prospects for Hydrogen from Coal, Report CCC/78, IEA Clean Coal
Centre, London, December 2003

PV , :(3-1)
FCVs , IT , ICEs ,
ICEVs ,


.




c
c

. %100


:
. c -1
.( ) c -2
. c -3
. c -4

national security of energy

2.1
:supplies

11059 1973 6035

1 /31/ %83 2004
2004 %49 2030 16500
.

ccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc

c:ey World Energy Statistics, 2004 and 2006 Editions, International Energy Agency, Paris,
2004 and 2006.
c

c
c

2030 1970 :(1-1)

1973

2004

2030

45.1

34.3

34.1

24.8

25.1

22.9

16.2

20.9

24.2

)
1
(

11.1

10.6

0.9

6.5

4.7

1.8

2.2

2.3

0.1

0.4

11.8

100 %

100.0

100.0

100.0

(Mtoe )

6034

11 059

16 500

) 1
(
.
Geothermal 2
2004 1973
. 2030
4.8*104 TJ Mtoe 3
:
D.A.J. Rand, R.M. Dell ,Hydrogen energy challenges and prospects, The Royal
Society of Chemistry, 2008.

c
. GDP

c
c

2030
.2002

.

.
IEA
.


%90 % 40 2
,

(2003 28 109 )
.
%83 %40 2004 1973

.


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.

ccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc
cD.A.J. Rand, R.M. Dell ,Hydrogen energy challenges and prospects, The Royal Society of
Chemistry, 2008.c

c
c

Source: D.A.J. Rand, R.M. Dell ,Hydrogen energy challenges and prospects, The Royal
Society of Chemistry, 2008.

2050-1930 :(4-1)

,
,
2005 25-20
. 60

c { 20 10 10 5

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Gt carbon/year1

60.02

1192

61.72

1202

1.7

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88

92.2

90

2.2

6.0

6.3

( )

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3.5

3.1

3.67 tonnes () tonne 1 1

5 2
4 .

Hadley .
.Meteorological Office
ccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc


cTechnology Opportunities to Reduce US Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Prepared by the

National Laboratory Directors for the US Department of Energy, October 1997; see
www.ornl.gov (quoted by C.F. Edwards in Stanford University Report: Carbon-free
Production of Hydrogen from Fossil Fuels).
4

Greenhouse Gases, Climate Change and Energy, Brochure from the US Energy Information
Administration, which quotes Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, a publication from
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, 2001.
c

c
c

:
: c -1

.
) :c -2
(
)
(
.
CFCS HFCS c -3
(HCFCS
HCFCS CFCS
.
(PFCS) Porfluorocarbons c -4
.
.
.
troposphere 1.7
21
( )
,
310
(3000-100) Hydrochlorofluorocarbons
Perfluorocarbons
(10000-5000)
.

( 0.8< )

2000 1860 (5) ,
( )270 ppmv (6)

c
c

( ) 380 ppm
.6.5 Gt 1860
400
( 380 )


,
.5 ,.

m 7
cccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc
. m 6

Source: Climate Change and the Greenhouse Effect. A Briefing from the Hadley Centre,
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, U: Meteorological Office, Exeter,
December 2005 (see also New Scientist, 12 February 2005, 41).

:(5-1)
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cNew Scientist, 15 November 2003, 6_7.

c
c

Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis

Center, http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/.
( )2000 -1750 :(6-1)
( )

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.
.

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.


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.

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6 % 16.2 2004

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c:ey World Energy Statistics, 2004 and 2006 Editions, International Energy Agency, Paris,

2004 and 2006.

c
c

.
.
.2004 - 1973
1973 (3-1)
2004

1973

2004

38.2

39.8

24.7

6.7

12.1

19.6

21.0

16.1

3.4

15.7

0.6

2.1

(%)

100.0

100.0

(TWh )

6111

17 450

1

:
:ey World Energy Statistics, 2004 and 2006 Editions, International Energy Agency,
Paris, 2004 and 2006.

31 2.8
.8.7% 2004-2002


.
(9)
IGCC , (Combined Cycle Gas Tubine ) CCGT

c
c

PF , (integrated gasification combined-cycle)

. ( ) (pulverized fuel)

c Source: World Energy Outlook 2006, International Energy Agency, Paris, 2006.

c
c

(a :(7-1)
(b
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. :g (
.
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40-30
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