CushmanWakefield Market Beat Q42011 Eng

MARKETBEAT
A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
Q4 2011
HANOI OFFICE: Room 602, Asia Tower, 6 Nha Tho Street, Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi, Vietnam Tel: (84) 4 3938 1786 Fax: (84) 4 3938 1781 HO CHI MINH CITY OFFICE: 2nd floor, Pathfinder Building, 52 Dong Du Street, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Tel: (84) 8 6291 4707 Fax: (84) 8 6291 4701
MARKETBEAT
OFFICE SNAPSHOT
HO CHI MINH CITY/VIETNAM
Q4 2011
ECONOMY
According to General Statistic Office (GSO), Vietnams GDP growth is estimated to be around 5.89% this year, lower than the 8-9% in the years before the global economic crisis in 2008. Inflation in Q4 has eased due to tightened monetary policy, which rose to less than 1% each month, much lower than the rate a few months earlier. Inflation in Vietnam in 2011 is forecast to be 18.13%. FDI inflow to Vietnam in 2011was estimated to reach US$14.7 billion, down 26% from the previous year, but total disbursement hit US$11 billion, the same as in 2010. FDI in the real estate market this year is expected to be the lowest in five years, accounting for only 5.8% this year, ranking it fourth on the FDIattraction list. Among the investors, Singapore was the largest followed by The Republic of Korea and Japan.
HCMC office market is expected to remain as a tenants market during 2012. It is further predicted that tenants will negotiate hard to achieve better lease conditions and terms, established, well respected landlords will retain their long standing tenants with small rental reductions at lease renewals due the large variance in the quality of building management in the market. Equally aging buildings with poor building management will risk losing their tenants due to the attractive relocation options in the market. The key for landlords during 2012 is to be proactive in accommodating tenants requirements to retain / secure a long standing relationship in these times of economic uncertainty. STATS ON THE GO
4Q11 Q-O-Q CHANGE Y-O-Y CHANG E 12 MONT H OUTL OOK
Overall Vacancy Grade A Overall Rents Absorption (sqm)
21.5% $49.49 5,654
-4.1% -1.7% 72.9%
-10.3% -11.3% 81 %
SUPPLY REMAINS STABLE

One new Grade B office building entered the market this quarter (approximately 5,000 sqm) which resulted in the total Grade B supply to increase slightly 1% q-o-q to 578,000 sqm from a total 43 buildings. Grade A supply remained unchanged y-o-y with 7 buildings that stand at approximately 137,000 sqm.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
VIETNAM GDP Growth CPI Growth Unemployment
SOURCE: GSO, World bank
2010 6.78% 9.19% 2.88%
2011 5.8% 18.12% 5%
2012F 6% 10.5% 5%
RENTS KEEP DECREASING

Net quoting rents of Grade A decreased slightly q-o-q by 2%, but suffered significant decrease of some 11% y-o-y (service charge included, VAT excluded). Rents are currently in the region of US$44 US$57 per sqm per month. Grade B quoting rents performed better with a reduction of 1% q-o-q and 5% y-o-y, in the region of US$17 US$42 per sqm per month (service charge included, VAT excluded). Rent reductions resulted in the occupancy rate for Grade A to increase 5% q-o-q and 11% y-o-y, to around 79%. Meanwhile, there was no change in the occupancy rate for Grade B, standing at 82%. Total net absorption area, Grade A and Grade B reached approximately 15,300 sqm this quarter, of which Grade B accounted for the majority of absorbed space, at 63%.
GRADE A OVERALL RENTAL VS. VACANCY RATES Q4 2011 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Grade A overall rent Vacancy 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
OUTLOOK
The supply of Grade A and B office space will increase substantially in the short to medium term, which will mainly concentrate in the CBD. The entrance of large new supply and vacancy of some 132,000 sqm will put strong pressure on rents which will continue to decrease. We anticipate significant delays in the office development pipeline due to current economic uncertainty and the large number of key projects currently under construction.
US$/sq.m/mth
HO CHI MINH CITY

SUBMARKET INVENTORY OVERALL VACANCY RATE UNDER CONSTR UCTION OVERALL YTD CONSTRU DIRECT NET CTION ABSORPTION COMPLETI ONS 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,600 10,950 16,550 -1,285 -1,285 15,265 GRADE A AVERAGE GROSS (SERVICE CHARGED INCL., VAT EXCLUDED) 3Q11 4Q11 $50.4 $32.8 $37.5 $21.3 $21.3 $32.9 $49.5 $32.8 $37.2 $20.6 $20.6 $32.6 US$ SF/YR EURO SF/YR
4Q11* $55.2 $36.6 $41.5 $22.9 $22.9 $36.3
4Q11* 42.4 28.2 31.9 17.6 17.6 27.9
CBD A - Grade CBD B - Grade CBD Non - CBD B - Grade NON - CBD TOTALS**
137,000 378,300 515,300 199,200 199,200 714,500
21.5% 18% 18.9% 17% 17% 18.4%
256,000 126,600 382,600 223,300 223,300 605,900
*RENTAL RATES REFLECT ASKING $PSF/YEAR
MARKET STATISTICS
SIGNIFICANT 4Q11 LEASE TRANSACTIONS BUILDING Bitexco Financial Tower Bitexco Financial Tower Bitexco Financial Tower Kumho Asiana Plaza Vincom Center Vincom Center Melinh Point MARKET CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD TENANT Samsung Adidas Microsoft P&G Dentsu MSIG Schlumberger BUILDING SQUARE METER CLASS A 3,198 A 1,000 A 1,000 A B B B 1,503 1,019 520 1,289
SIGNIFICANT 4Q11 CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS BUILDING Royal Tower MARKET Phu My Hung SQUARE METRE 102,148 COMPLETION DATE 2011
SIGNIFICANT4Q11 PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION BUILDING President Place Times Square Saigon One Le Meriden HTMC Building DB Tower MARKET CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD Non - CBD SQUARE METRE 14,000 14,900 49,000 9,000 26,000 12,700 COMPLETION DATE 3Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 3Q2012 3Q2012 3Q2012
* RENEWAL - NOT INCLUDED IN LEASING ACTIVITY STATISTICS
Cushman & Wakefield Viet Nam Level 2, Pathfinder Building 52 Dong Du, District 1, HCMC Tel: +(84-8) 6291 4707 www.cushmanwakefiled.com
This report contains information available to the public and has been relied upon by Cushman & Wakefield on the basis that it is accurate and complete. Cushman & Wakefield accepts no responsibility if this should prove not to be the case. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. 2012 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
MARKETBEAT
APARTMENT FOR SALE

HO CHI MINH CITY/VIETNAM
Q4 2011
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
According to General Statistic Office (GSO), Vietnams GDP growth is estimated to be around 5.8% this year, lower than the 8-9% in the years before the global economic crisis in 2008. Inflation in Q4 has eased due to tightened monetary policy, which rose to less than 1% each month, much lower than the rate a few months earlier. Inflation in Vietnam in 2011 is forecast to be 18.13%. FDI inflow to Vietnam in 2011was estimated to reach US$14.7 billion, down 26% from the previous year, but total disbursement hit US$11 billion, the same as in 2010. FDI in the real estate market this year is expected to be the lowest in five years, accounting for only 5.8% this year, ranking it fourth on the FDI-attraction list. Among the investors, Singapore was the largest followed by The Republic of Korea and Japan.
OUTLOOK
It appears very clear that homebuyers continue to wait for further price drops; resulting in developers facing critical shortage of capital and therefore seeking new sources of finance. M&A is expected to boom in the 2012. Coupled with the Directive 02/CT-NHNN that indicates a fall in future borrowing rates, the withdrawal of the property market from the non-productive areas, which is now being considered by the government, may address the capital shortage issue for both buyers and sellers.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
NATIONAL 2010 2011 2012F
GDP Growth CPI Growth
6.78% 9.19%
5.89% 18.13%
6% 10.5%
GRADE CS STOCK DOMINATED THE MARKET

Q4 2011, approximately 700 new Grade C units entered the market. Grade C remains the core product and accounted for 77% of total stock. Nearly 80% of total primary stock is concentrated in outer districts. Districts 7, 8 and Binh Tan remain the three largest suppliers, accounting for nearly 40%.
ASKING PRICE OF ALL SEGMENTS Q4 2011

6,000
5,000
US$/ sq m
4,000
3,000 2,000
GRADE C THE ONLY PERFORMER

The HCMC residential market is still experiencing low levels of activity, as many projects have been postponed in anticipation of poor sales performance. Amongst the three segments, Grade C performed the best with an absorption rate of 16%. Grade C had the most transacted units due to a reasonable price level, which ranged from approximately US$550 to US$1,550 per sqm (VAT excluded). More than 83% of the units absorbed in Q4/2011 were Grade C. Grade A and B had absorption rates of 5% and 13%, respectively. Grade A pricing ranged from US$1,660 to US$4,760; and from US$1,250 to US$4,200 (VAT excluded) for Grade B. Grade A continued its downward trend of nearly 4% q-o-q and 7% y-o-y.
1,000
Grade A Grade B Grade C
Lower asking price
Upper asking price
PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE Q4 2011

12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 -
units
DEMAND FOR AFFORDABLE APARTMENTS

Homebuyers of Grade C apartments made up more than 70% of total buyers over the last few quarters, which confirms affordable apartments are in demand. Some developers in the high-end segment have switched to the more favourable of low and mid-end market.
Grade A
Grade B
Grade C
Unit sold
Accummulated primary supply
STATS ON THE GO
SIGNIFICANT RESIDENTIAL PROJECTS LAUNCHED IN 4Q 2011 BUILDING LOCATION EXPECTED COMPLETION 2012 2013 UNITS LAUNCHED SALE PRICE
Hoang Anh An Tien (Gold House) Everville (Block E)
Nha Be District Binh Tan
500 190
698 637
SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION BUILDING LOCATION DEVELOPER EST. NUMBER OF UNITS 180 364 328 204 975 EXPECTED COMPLETION
M&C Tower Thai Binh Plaza (Central Plaza) Cinco Building Khang Thong Apartment Spring Life
District 1 District 2 District 5 District 7 District 2
Saigon M&C JSC Binh Duong Ltd Cinco Khang Thong Group Khang Dien Saigon
2012 2012 2013 2013 2014
MARKETBEAT
SERVICED APARTMENT
HO CHI MINH CITY/VIET NAM
Q4 2011
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Tenants, especially singles, prefer to lease in the CBD due to the prime location. However, districts 2 and 7 attracted families due to the larger unit scale and concentration of many international schools.
OUTLOOK
Buy-to-let apartments and villas for rent will be strong competitors of serviced apartments for long-term stays due to lower rents. Twenty-one projects with more than 3,400 units are expected to come on line over the next five years. 21% of the total projects will be located in District 1. The CBD is believed to continue to be the priority choice for tenants at least in the medium term. RENTAL VALUES AS OF 4Q 2011
LOCATION AVERAGE RENT SQM/MTH %CHANGE MTH YEAR AGO AGO SHORT TERM OUTLOO K
GRADE A SUPPLY INCREASES

Q4 2011 witnessed the entrance of one Grade A serviced apartment building, raising the total supply to 711 units, an increase of 8% y-o-y. As of Q4 2011, there were 23 Grade A and Grade B serviced apartment buildings, providing 2,298 units, an increase of 2% y-o-y. In terms of number of units, District 1 had the highest market share, 54% total stock due to its prime/CBD location.
GRADE A CBD Non - CBD GRADE B CBD Non - CBD 27.9 22.0 1.2% -2.9% 4.3% 1.2% 31.2 21.8 2.0% -5.3% 2.3% 3.2%
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PERFORMANCE

The performance of the whole market was relatively stable. The occupancy of Grade A recorded at 89%, a slight decrease of 2% q-o-q and 1% y-o-y. Grade B was unchanged from Q3/2011 but increased 5.5% y-o-y. In terms of rental levels, both grades showed no significant change. Grade A remained at US$31 per sqm per month, increase 2.7% q-o-q, and 3.3% y-o-y. Grade B remained at US$25 per sqm per month (Service charge included, VAT excluded), an increase of 3% y-o-y. District 1 always performs well with the highest occupancy rate, approximately 90% this quarter even though it quoted the highest rent, at US$31 per sqm per month (Service charge included, VAT excluded) The main tenants for the serviced apartment segment come from Asian countries. Japanese business persons are returning to HCMC after Japans natural disaster. GRADE A & B OVERALL RENTAL VS. OCCUPANCY RATE 4Q 2011
STATS ON THE GO
SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS COMPLETION IN 4Q 2011 BUILDING Sai Gon Nikko Hotel LOCATION Nguyen Van Cu, District 1 LOCATION 87 Cong Quynh, District 1 628 Ha Noi Highway, District 2 22-36 Nguyen Hue, District 1 TENURE YEARS 50 UNITS LAUNCHED 53 LEASE PRICE 35
SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION BUILDING Golden Hill The Vista Time Square DEVELOPER Ngan Binh Investment and Construction Ltd Capita Land Quang Truong Thoi Dai JSC EST. NUMBER OF UNITS 300 250 100 EXPECTED COMPLETION 2013 2012 2012
MARKETBEAT
INDUSTRIAL SNAPSHOT
HO CHI MINH CITY/VIET NAM RETAIL SNAPSHOT
Q4 2011
MANCHESTER
ECONOMY
According to General Statistic Office (GSO), Vietnams GDP growth is estimated to be around 5.8% this year, lower than the 8-9% in the years before the global economic crisis in 2008.
have solid waste transfer station, and all the EPZs and IPs will have to be equipped with automatic observer systems. The city has placed priority to attract investment into four key industries: precise mechanical engineering, electricity and electronics, information technology, pharmaceutical industry and food processing.
Inflation in Q4 has eased due to tightened monetary policy, which MANCHESTER rose to less than 1% each month, much lower than the rate a few months earlier. Inflation in Vietnam in 2011 is forecast to be 18.13%. FDI inflow to Vietnam in 2011was estimated to reach US$14.7 billion, down 26% from the previous year, but total disbursement hit US$11 billion, the same as in 2010. FDI in the real estate market this year is expected to be the lowest in five years, accounting for only 5.8% this year, ranking it fourth on the FDIattraction list. Among the investors, Singapore was the largest followed by The Republic of Korea and Japan.
OUTLOOK
It is predicted that the total scale of IPs in HCMC up to 2020 will be approximately 3,100 hectares, increasing 82% from 2011. In terms of number of IPs, it is forecasted to have 30 IPs in 2020, adding 12 IPs to 2011s number. MARKET STATISTICS
SUBMARKET District 2 District 7 District 12 Binh Tan District Tan Phu District Thu Duc District Nha Be District Binh Chanh District Cu Chi District TOTAL AREA ( HA) 112 300 28 670 130 151 908 260 1,194 LEASABLE AREA (HA) 79 195 22 530 85 105 484 190 780 NUMBER OF IPS 1 1 1 3 1 3 2 2 4
OVERVIEW
Currently in HCMC there are 18 operating IPs with total area of approximately 3,750 hectares. The lettable area is estimated to be approximately 66% the total scale or about 2,475 hectares. The remaining LUR (Land use right) years range from 30 - 47 years, with the average number of LUR years remaining being approximately 39. Most of IPs is located in suburban districts, and mainly focused on the western districts of Binh Tan, Binh Chanh and Tan Binh. Cu Chi and Hoc Mon are the two districts that are considered new destinations for IPs as there are large available tracks of land. Most IPs in HCMC has occupancy rates at 95 -100% as they are established and have been operating for some10-20 years. However, due to 5 new IPs having occupancy rates under 50% the average HCMC occupancy rate is around 67 percent. Rent: HCMC is higher than that of the neighboured provinces, with average value of approximately US$140/square metre/term. This rental rate is considered two times higher than Long An and nearly three times higher than Binh Duong, Dong Nai and Ba RiaVung Tau.
SIGNIFICANT FUTURE PROJECTS

IPS Phong Phu Phu Huu AREA ( HA) 148 114 STATUS Under construction Under construction
PERFORMANCE BY DISTRICT Q4 2011

$300.00 $250.00 $200.00 $150.00 $100.00 $50.00 $0.00 psm/month % 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
EVIRONMENT CONCERNS
The industrialisation process has created air and water pollution. This provides practical reasoning for Industrial zones in the city to recently re-focus to attract hi tech and environment friendly projects. The Ho Chi Minh City Export Processing Zone Authority (HEPZA) stated that in the near future, 100% of IZs will have concentrated waste water treatment system, 100% to
Rent
Occupancy
MARKETBEAT
OFFICE SNAPSHOT
HANOI/VIETNAM
Q4 2011
ECONOMY
According to General Statistic Office (GSO), Vietnams GDP growth is estimated to be around 5.89% this year, lower than the 8-9% in the years before the global economic crisis in 2008. Inflation in Q4 has eased due to tightened monetary policy, which rose to less than 1% each month, much lower than the rate a few months earlier. Inflation in Vietnam in 2011 is forecast to be 18.13%. FDI inflow to Vietnam in 2011was estimated to reach US$14.7 billion, down 26% from the previous year, but total disbursement hit US$11 billion, the same as in 2010. FDI in the real estate market this year is expected to be the lowest in five years, accounting for only 5.8% this year, ranking it fourth on the FDIattraction list. Among the investors, Singapore was the largest followed by The Republic of Korea and Japan.
OUTLOOK
Next three years, office market is expected to see more than 1.5 million sqm for all grades entering the market nearly twice as much as the current supply. We forecast that there will be around 144,000 sqm of Grade A entering the market in 2012. With the increasing supply it is anticipated that the occupancy rate and rental rates for both Grade A & B office buildings should drop gradually. Also, there will be a trend of relocation to the West region of Hanoi. This could be explained by the fact that those office buildings there offer lower rental rates, good services and facilities. Market in 2012 shall turn to tenants as they have more choices.
STATS ON THE GO
4Q11 Q-O-Q CHANGE Y-O-Y CHANG E 12 MONT H OUTL OOK
SUPPLY INCREASE
Total Stock of Grade A office space was unchanged in comparison with the previous quarter and stands at approximately 190,000 sqm. Meanwhile, Grade B total stock received an additional 84,000 sqm, an increase of 19% q-o-q. The total stock of Grade B in Q4 2011 is estimated at 517,000 sqm.
Grade A Overall Vacancy Grade A Overall Rents Grade A Absorption (sq m) 13.3% $37.29 3,770 -2% 0% -231% -10% -4 % -47%
COMPETITIVE RENTS FROM THE WEST

Grade A quoting rent (VAT excluded, service charge included) stood in the range of US$27 US$53 per sqm per month, remained unchanged q-o-q but a decrease of 4% y-o-y. Grade B saw a notable reduction of 7% q-o-q and 12% y-o-y in the quoting rent and range from US$13 to US$40 per sqm per month (VAT excluded, service charge included). This decrease is explained by the supply and demand effect where supply well out ways demand and market forces are at play in the West of Hanoi. Occupancy rate of Grade A was 86.7%, an increase of 2% q-o-q and 10% y-o-y. Meanwhile, due to the additional supply in Q4 2011, Grade B witnessed a decrease of 2% q-o-q and 11% y-o-y in the occupancy rate, standing at around 80%. Total net absorption: Grade A and Grade B reached approximately 57,000 sqm, of which 46% of space is notably used as landlord offices. Transactions in Q4 2011 were generally attributable to buildings located in the West.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
VIETNAM GDP Growth CPI Growth Unemployment
SOURCE: GSO, World Bank
2010 6.78% 9.19% 2.88%
2011 5.8% 18.13% 5%
2012F 6% 10.5% 5%
GRADE A OVERALL RENTAL VS. VACANCY RATES

42 41 40 US$/sqm/mth 39 38 37 36 35 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Grade A overall rent Vacancy 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
ENTER MARKET NAME

SUBMARKET INVENTOR Y (SQM) OVERALL VACANCY RATE UNDER OVERALL YTD CONSTR CONSTRUC DIRECT NET UCTION TION ABSORPTIO (SQM) COMPLETIO N (SQM) NS 0 0 2,400 41,000 41,000 460,000 555,000 1,015,000 1,056,000 10,500 10,500 0 155,000 155,000 165,500 0 2,400 1,300 53,000 54,300 56,700 GRADE A AVERAGE GROSS (US$/SQM/MTH) 3Q11 $40.8 $31.8 $38.0 $30.6 $23.5 $24.4 $27.9 4Q11 $40.6 $29.8 $37.2 $30.8 $22.1 $23.2 $26.8 US$ SF/YR 4Q11* $45.2 $33.2 $41.5 $34.4 $24.6 $25.8 $29.8 EURO SF/YR 4Q11* 34.8 25.6 32.0 26.4 18.9 19.8 22.9
CBD A-Grade CBD B-Grade CBD TOTALS Non-CBD A-Grade Non-CBD B-Grade NON-CBD TOTALS TOTALS**
126,000 56,000 182,000 64,000 461,000 526,000 707,000
5% 7% 6% 30% 22% 23% 19%
MARKET STATISTICS
SIGNIFICANT 4Q11 LEASE TRANSACTIONS BUILDING Capital Tower Capital Tower TTC Viet A SIGNIFICANT 4Q11 SALE TRANSACTIONS BUILDING Vincom City Towers MARKET CBD Fringe BUYER Techcombank PURCHASE SQUARE METRE PRICE (US$) N/A 16,000 SUBMARKET CBD Fringe CBD Fringe Cau Giay Cau Giay TENANT Vietcombank - Cardif Life Insurance Navigos Novellus Amway BUILDING SQUARE METRE CLASS A 500 A B B 400 1,500 732
SIGNIFICANT 4Q11 CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS BUILDING Song Da Twin Tower Viet A Tower Nam Cuong Building SUBMARKET My Dinh Cau Giay Suburban MAJOR TENANT SUDICO Viet A Corp. Nam Cuong Group SQUARE METRE 38,190 13.277 33,000 COMPLETION DATE Q4 2011 Q4 2011 Q4 2011
SIGNIFICANT4Q11 PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION BUILDING Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower Habico Tower EVN Twin Tower Lotte Centre Hanoi Mipec Tower Hanoi Indochina Plaza SUBMARKET My Dinh My Dinh Ba Dinh Ba Dinh Dong Da Cau Giay SQUARE METRE 100,345 53,936 45,261 43,835 29,500 14,437 COMPLETION DATE Q1 2012 2013 2012 2014 2012 2012
Unit 602, Asia Tower 6 Nha Tho Str., Hoan Kiem Dist Hanoi Tel: +(84-4) 3938 1786 www.cushmanwakefield.com
MARKETBEAT
HANOI/VIETNAM
APARTMENT FOR SALE

Q4 2011
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
According to General Statistic Office (GSO), Vietnams GDP growth is estimated to be around 5.89% this year, lower than the 8-9% in the years before the global economic crisis in 2008. Inflation in Q4 has eased due to tightened monetary policy, which rose to less than 1% each month, much lower than the rate a few months earlier. Inflation in Vietnam in 2011 is forecast to be 18.13%. FDI inflow to Vietnam in 2011was estimated to reach US$14.7 billion, down 26% from the previous year, but total disbursement hit US$11 billion, the same as in 2010. FDI in the real estate market this year is expected to be the lowest in five years, accounting for only 5.8% this year, ranking it fourth on the FDI-attraction list. Among the investors, Singapore was the largest, followed by The Republic of Korea and Japan.
Mid and low-income apartment segment are considered to be the focus point of Hanoi real estate market.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
NATIONAL GDP Growth CPI Growth 2010 6.78% 9.19% 2011 5.89% 18.13% 2012F 6% 10.5%
ASKING PRICE OF ALL SEGMENTS Q4 2011
STAGNANT MARKET
Residential market in the fourth quarter of 2011 continues to show signs of stagnation. In this quarter, the total number of units launched for sale for all segments was roughly 1,800. Among which, Grade B accounts for around 74% and the balance is Grade C. There was no new Grade A supply. Grade B increased approximately 28% compared with that in previous quarter. Due to poor sales performance, some projects have postponed their launch. Asking prices of all grades are following a further downward trend. Under payment pressure, many developers and secondary investors race to sell products at soft price and offer discount policies or other promotion programs. Quoting price for Grade A averages US$2,500/sqm, Grade B US$1,600/sqm and Grade C US$990. Compared with third quarter, prices were reduced by about 3% on average. PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE Q4 2011
WEAK DEMAND
Currently, demand comes mostly from end-users and the remaining from long-term investors who have idle capital and can hold the units until hand-over. Buyers still wait for a further drop in prices which adds to the current stagnation.
OUTLOOK
It is forecast that dozens of projects will be launched for sale next year. Due to oversupply in the market and tightening monetary and fiscal policies of the government, apartment for sale in the coming time will continue to face challenges and the downward trend is understandable. Accordingly, the absorption rate is likely to be low.
STATS ON THE GO
SIGNIFICANT RESIDENTIAL PROJECTS LAUNCHED IN 4Q 2011 BUILDING LOCATION TENURE (YEARS) UNITS LAUNCHED SALE PRICE
Hoa Binh Green City Hyundai Hillstate Daewoo Cleve Skyview Berriver Long Bien
Hai Ba Trung Ha Dong Ha Dong Cau Giay Long Bien
2014 2013 2017 2013 2014
200 742 150 60 180
1,147-1,571 1,238-1,381 1,400-1,800 1,548-1,595 1,285-1,380
SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION BUILDING LOCATION DEVELOPER EST. NUMBER OF UNITS 314 1,478 928 4,200 1,008 EXPECTED COMPLETION 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013
Mipec Mulberry Lane Hyundai Hillstate Royal City Mandarin Garden
Dong Da Ha Dong Ha Dong Thanh Xuan Cau Giay
Mipec Capital Land Hyundai E&C Vincom Hoa Phat
MARKETBEAT
HANOI/VIETNAM
SERVICED APARTMENT
Q4 2011
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Tay Ho District is always the priority choice for expatriates staying in Hanoi. As a result, the occupancy rate is higher than other locations, standing at around 89%. Tay Ho also provides large supply of townhouses and villas which are more suitable for families.
OUTLOOK
The serviced apartment market performance in Hanoi is likely to be gloomy due to the global economy effects. Buy-to-let apartments will continue to be strong competitors for serviced apartments due to the abundant supply and lower rents. 378 Grade A units from Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower Project are due to be launched in the first quarter of 2012, both occupancy and rental rates for Grade A is forecast to follow the continuous downward trend in the short-term. CAPITAL VALUES AS OF 3Q 2011
SUBMARKET AVERAGE RENT US$/SQM/MT H 33.6 33.5 19.5 20.6 % CHANGE MTH YEAR AGO AGO SHORT TERM OUTLOO K
UNCHANGED SUPPLY IN Q4
Hanoi serviced apartment stock, Grade A and B in the fourth quarter of 2011 was unchanged compared to the previous quarter. By the end 2011, there were 12 Grade A serviced apartment buildings, providing 1,372 units, an increase of 10% y-o-y. Meanwhile, Grade B stock remained unchanged in comparison with previous year, including 16 buildings or 820 units. Tay Ho District which is the top location for Western expatriates had the highest Grade A market share of 39% of total stock, followed by Ba Dinh and Hoan Kiem districts. Ba Dinh District occupies the largest Grade B market share, 38% followed then by Tay Ho District.
GRADE A CBD Non - CBD GRADE B CBD Non - CBD
0% -3% 0% -2%
-2% -6% -8% -8%
Grade A & B Overall Rental Vs. Occupancy Rate 4Q 2011
MARKET PERFORMANCE DOWNWARD TREND

The market performance in the fourth quarter of 2011 continued in a downward trend for both Grade A and B. Occupancy rate, Grade A was at 79%, a decrease of 2% q-oq and 3% y-o-y, most Grade A buildings have vacancies. Meanwhile, occupancy rate of Grade B fell slightly by 1% q-oq and 1% y-o-y, standing at 89%. Parallel to the low occupancy rates, quoting rents also kept decreasing in Q4 2011. Grade A rent was at US$33.5 per sqm per month (Service charge included, VAT excluded), a drop of 3% q-o-q and 4% y-o-y. Grade B rent reached US$20.5 per sqm per month, a decrease of 2% q-o-q and 8% y-o-y.
STATS ON THE GO
CURRENT SUPPLY BY GRADE IN 4Q 2011 GRADE A B C SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION BUILDING Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower Lotte Center Hanoi Elegant Tay Ho Le Roi du Soleil Vietinbank Tower HD Westlake LOCATION Tu Liem District Ba Dinh District Tay Ho District Tay Ho District Tu Liem District Tay Ho District DEVELOPER Keangnam Co. Lotte Duy Hoang Minh Tan Hoang Minh Corp. Vietinbank HD Group EST. NUMBER OF UNITS 378 254 80 N/A N/A N/A EXPECTED COMPLETION 1Q2012 2013 2012 2014 2014 Onward NO. OF BUILDINGS 12 16 15 NO. OF UNITS 1,372 820 207
MARKETBEAT
HANOI/VIETNAM RETAIL SNAPSHOT
INDUSTRIAL SNAPSHOT
Q4 2011
MANCHESTER
ECONOMY
According to General Statistic Office (GSO), Vietnams GDP growth is estimated to be around 5.8% this year, lower than the 8-9% in the years before the global economic crisis in 2008.
OUTLOOK
Up to 2020, Hanoi industrial market forecast is for significant additional supply of approximately 2,900 hectares, representing 160% of current supply. According to the development orientation of Hanoi to 2020, Hanoi will focus to attract projects applying advanced technologies; to continue to develop the key industries such as electronics & informatics, mechanics, garment & textile and food processing. Hanoi is further focussed on job creating industry to fulfil future supply. MARKET STATISTICS
SUBMARKET Gia Lam Long Bien Soc Son Me Linh Tu Liem Chuong My Dong Anh Thach That & Quoc Oai TOTAL AREA (HA) 97 40 100 344 30 170 274 705 LEASABLE AREA (HA) 78 32 70 240 24 111 206 619 NO. OF IPS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
Inflation in Q4 has eased due to tightened monetary policy, which MANCHESTER rose to less than 1% each month, much lower than the rate a few months earlier. Inflation in Vietnam in 2011 is forecast to be 18.13%. FDI inflow to Vietnam in 2011was estimated to reach US$14.7 billion, down 26% from the previous year, but total disbursement hit US$11 billion, the same as in 2010. FDI in the real estate market this year is expected to be the lowest in five years, accounting for only 5.8% this year, ranking it fourth on the FDIattraction list. Among the investors, Singapore was the largest followed by The Republic of Korea and Japan.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Hanoi has nine operating industrial and hi-tech parks with total scale of approximately 1,760 hectares, of which 1,380 hectares of lettable leasable area. Thach That and Quoc Oai have the biggest industrial land area with total leasable area of approximately 620 hectares, occupying approximately 45% of total current supply. The average leasing price in Hanoi has reached approximately US$113/sqm/term (terms generally range from 33-49 years, leasehold). Seven of the nine operating industrial parks have been fully occupied since 2009. Hoa Lac Hi-tech Park has the lowest occupancy rate, only 17%. As a result, the average occupancy across Hanoi rate is about 69%. The remaining LUR (Land use right) years in Hanois IPs range from 33 years to 49 years. Newly established IP, Hoa Lac Hi-tech Park has the highest remaining LUR years, at 49. Due to limited current supply, rental rate quoted by developers is relatively high and gives the developer/s power to select tenants as they prefer.
SIGNIFICANT FUTURE PROJECTS

IP NAME Phung Hiep North Thuong Tin Dong Anh DISTRICT Chuong My Thuong Tin Dong Anh AREA (HA) 401 470 470 STATUS Site clearance Site clearance Planning
PERFORMANCE BY DISTRICT Q4 2011

$180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
DIFFICULT IN SITE CLEARANCE

There is a fact that majority of local people, mostly farmers, dont want to convert their farm land to IP development purpose as they worry about future employment, others are not satisfied with the compensation. Therefore, many projects have slowed and face processing issues or face postponement.
psm/term
Rent
Occupancy
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2011
HANOI OFFICE: Room 602, Asia Tower, 6 Nha Tho Street, Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi, Vietnam Tel: (84) 4 3938 1786 Fax: (84) 4 3938 1781 HO CHI MINH CITY OFFICE: 2nd floor, Pathfinder Building, 52 Dong Du Street, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Tel: (84) 8 6291 4707 Fax: (84) 8 6291 4701

CushmanWakefield Market Beat Q42011 Eng

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MARKETBEAT

A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication

Overall Vacancy Grade A Overall Rents Absorption (sqm)

21.5% $49.49 5,654

-4.1% -1.7% 72.9%

SUPPLY REMAINS STABLE

2010 6.78% 9.19% 2.88%

2011 5.8% 18.12% 5%

RENTS KEEP DECREASING

HO CHI MINH CITY

4Q11* $55.2 $36.6 $41.5 $22.9 $22.9 $36.3

4Q11* 42.4 28.2 31.9 17.6 17.6 27.9

137,000 378,300 515,300 199,200 199,200 714,500

21.5% 18% 18.9% 17% 17% 18.4%

256,000 126,600 382,600 223,300 223,300 605,900

*RENTAL RATES REFLECT ASKING $PSF/YEAR

* RENEWAL - NOT INCLUDED IN LEASING ACTIVITY STATISTICS

APARTMENT FOR SALE

HO CHI MINH CITY/VIETNAM

GDP Growth CPI Growth

GRADE CS STOCK DOMINATED THE MARKET

ASKING PRICE OF ALL SEGMENTS Q4 2011

GRADE C THE ONLY PERFORMER

Lower asking price

Upper asking price

PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE Q4 2011

DEMAND FOR AFFORDABLE APARTMENTS

Accummulated primary supply

Hoang Anh An Tien (Gold House) Everville (Block E)

Nha Be District Binh Tan

District 1 District 2 District 5 District 7 District 2

2012 2012 2013 2013 2014

* RENEWAL - NOT INCLUDED IN LEASING ACTIVITY STATISTICS

HO CHI MINH CITY/VIET NAM

GRADE A SUPPLY INCREASES

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PERFORMANCE

* RENEWAL - NOT INCLUDED IN LEASING ACTIVITY STATISTICS

SIGNIFICANT FUTURE PROJECTS

PERFORMANCE BY DISTRICT Q4 2011

COMPETITIVE RENTS FROM THE WEST

2010 6.78% 9.19% 2.88%

2011 5.8% 18.13% 5%

GRADE A OVERALL RENTAL VS. VACANCY RATES

ENTER MARKET NAME

126,000 56,000 182,000 64,000 461,000 526,000 707,000

5% 7% 6% 30% 22% 23% 19%

* RENEWAL - NOT INCLUDED IN LEASING ACTIVITY STATISTICS

APARTMENT FOR SALE

ASKING PRICE OF ALL SEGMENTS Q4 2011

Hai Ba Trung Ha Dong Ha Dong Cau Giay Long Bien

2014 2013 2017 2013 2014

200 742 150 60 180

1,147-1,571 1,238-1,381 1,400-1,800 1,548-1,595 1,285-1,380

Mipec Mulberry Lane Hyundai Hillstate Royal City Mandarin Garden

Dong Da Ha Dong Ha Dong Thanh Xuan Cau Giay

Mipec Capital Land Hyundai E&C Vincom Hoa Phat

* RENEWAL - NOT INCLUDED IN LEASING ACTIVITY STATISTICS

-2% -6% -8% -8%

Grade A & B Overall Rental Vs. Occupancy Rate 4Q 2011

MARKET PERFORMANCE DOWNWARD TREND

SIGNIFICANT FUTURE PROJECTS

PERFORMANCE BY DISTRICT Q4 2011

DIFFICULT IN SITE CLEARANCE