CHNG II:

THU THP V TRNH BY D LIU THNG K

Bi 2.1:
1.

Phn t cng nhn theo bc th:

Ta c:
1
3

1
3

n = (2 * k ) = (2 *84) = 6

Khong cch t: d =

X max X min (n 1) 7 1 (6 1) 1
=
=
n
6
6

Kt qu phn t cng nhn theo bc th:

Tn sut fi / f i

Bc th

S CN

xi

fi

13

0,15

13

0,15

23

0,27

18

0,21

0,1

0,07

0,02

Tng

84

2.

Biu din kt qu ln th:

25

S CN

20
15
10
5
0
1

Bc th

Bi 2.2:
d=

Khong cch t:

X max X min (n 1) 25 1 (5 1)
=
= 4
n
5

Ta c kt qu phn t:
fi

gi

S nhn vin

S ca hng

1-5

17.5

1.75

6-10

22.5

2.25

11-15

10

25

2.5

16-20

20

21-25

15

1.5

Tng

40

100

Bi 2.3:
d=

Khong cch t:

X max X min 25,3 19

=
= 0,9
n
7

Kt qu phn t:

fi

di

Thi gian

S CN

Tn sut

Tn s tch
lu

19 -19.9

0.1

19.9 - 20.8

0.12

11

20.8 - 21.7

0.18

20

21.7 - 22.6

0.1

25

22.6 - 23.5

0.14

32

23.5 - 24.4

14

0.28

46

24.4 - 25.3

0.08

50

Tng

50

V th tn s v tn s tch lu:
50

60

45
50 50

40
35

40

S CN

30
32

25
25

20
20

15
10
5

30

5
5

11
6

20

14

9
5

10

7
4

0
19 - 19.9 19.9 20.8

20.8 21.7
S CN

21.7 22.6

22.6 23.5

23.5 24.4

Tn s tch lu

24.4 25.3

Tn s tch ly

46

CHNG III:
M T D LIU BNG CC C TRNG THNG K
Bi 3.1:
1
Cc s tng i c th tnh ton l: tt : s tng i ng thi, tkc : s
tng i kt cu, tKG : s tng i khng gian.
2

V d minh ho:

tdt =

15959,1
100% = 124, 6%
12806,3

=> Tc tng trng v ch tiu vn u t xy dng c bn ca a phng

nm 2007 l 124.6%.

tkc =

8195.9
x 100%= 64%
12806.3

=> Ch tiu v vn u t xu dng ca b phn xu lp chim 64% tng vn du

t xy dng.
tkg =

8195,9
100% = 227, 4%
3603,5

=> Ch tiu v vn u t xy dng ca b phn xy lp so vi ch tiu ca b

phn thit b l 227.4%
Bi 3.2:
Tnh cc s tng i thch hp nhm nh gi k hoch doanh thu
ca tng ca hng v c cng ty.
Cc s tng i c th tnh c: tt , tnv , tht
Theo yu cu ca bi ton, chng ta ch tnh: tnv , tht

Tn ca
hng

Thc t
qu I

K hoch
qu II

Thc t
qu II

S tng
S tng
i NVKH i HTKH
y1 / y0

1
2
3
Cng ty

900
1300
1600
3800

1000
1500
2500
5000

1000
1800
2075
4875

1,1
1.15
1.5625
1,31

1
1,2
0,83
0,975

5000

kh
Ta c tnv = y = 3800 = 1,31
0

Nhim v t ra cho qu 2 v doanh thu phi tng so vi qu 1 l 31%.

tht =

y1
4875
=
=0, 975
yKH 5000

Nh vy, thc t qu 2 khng hon thnh k hoch t ra l 2,5%

Bi 3.3:
Tnh s tng i gim gi thnh:

Ta c:
tnv =

yKH
= 0, 95
y0

y1
tdt = =
y0

0,93

Ta c:

tdt = tht .t nv
tht =

tdt 0,93
=
= 0,98
tnv 0,95

Vy, ch tiu v gi thnh i vi sn phm ca k nghin cu hon thnh vt

mc k hoch l 3% ( v chnh lch gia s tng i nhim v v k hoch l
3%).
2

tnv = 0,96
tdt = 1,02
tdt
=
tnv

tht=

1,02
=
0,96

1,0625

Vy, ch tiu v thi gian lao ng hao ph ca k nghin cu khng hon thnh so
vi k hoch t ra.
3
tnv = 1, 08
tdt = 1,12
tht =

tdt 1,12
=
=1.03
tnv 1, 08

Vy trong k nghin cu x nghip khng hon thnh k hoch t ra v ch tiu

s lng l 3%.
Bi 3.4:
Tn
Hp tc x
A
B
C
1.
x1 =

x f
f

33 100 + 35 120 + 37 180

=35,5 Nng sut la bnh qun v h thu
400

x f
f

40 120 + 38 140 + 36 140

=37,9 Nng sut la bnh qun v ng xun.
400

i i

i i
i

2.

V ng xun
Nng sut
Din tch
(t/ha)
(ha)
40
120
38
140
36
140

Tnh nng sut la bnh qun v h thu, v ng xun ca ton x?

x2 =

V h thu
Nng sut
Din tch
(t/ha)
(ha)
33
100
35
120
37
180

Tnh nng sut la bnh qun mi v trong nm ca ton x?

x f
f

x=

i i

35, 4 400 + 37,9 400

=36, 65
800

Bi 3.5:
nh sau:

Tnh hnh thu hoch la trong nm ca 3 hp tc x thuc mt x

Hp tc x

Nng sut
(t/ha)

T trng din tch thu

hoch( %)

A
33
B
35
C
37
Nng sut la bnh qun trong nm ca ton x:
x=

xd
d
i

20
35
45

33 20 + 35 35 + 37 45
=35,5
100

Bi 3.6:
C ti liu v tnh hnh sn xut la v ma nm bo co ca 3
hp tc x trong cng mt huyn nh sau:
Hp tc x

1.

x1 =

Lng phn ho Nng sut la

hc bn cho
bnh qun
1 ha
(t/ha)
(kg/ha)
S 1
120
180
36
S 2
180
160
35
S 3
250
200
40
Lng phn ho hc bnh qun cho mt ha:

x f

i i

Din tch
gieo cy
(ha)

180 120 + 160 180 + 200 250

=182,5(kg )
550

Vy, lng phn ho hc bnh qun cho 1 ha la l: 182,5 (kg)

2.

Nng sut thu hoch la bnh qun:

Gi thnh
1 t la
(1000)
74
76
70

x2 =

x f
f

i i

36 120 + 35 180 + 40 250

=37,5 (t/ha)
550

Vy, nng sut thu hoch la bnh qun ca 3 hp tc x trong cng mt huyn l:
37,5 (t/ha)
3.

Gi thnh bnh qun mt t la:

Ta c: Sn lng la thu c = nng sut x din tch

SL1 = 36 120 = 4320
SL2 = 35 180 = 6300
SL3 = 40 250 = 10000

Gi thnh bnh qun mt t la l:

Ta c : X 3 =

74 4320 + 76 63000 + 70 10000

= 72, 6
20620

Vy, gi thnh bnh qun 1 t la l: 72,6 (1000/t)

Bi 3.8:
C ti liu v phn t cc hp tc x thuc mt huyn theo nng
sut thu hoch la v ma nm bo co nh sau:

1.

Nng sut la (t/ha)

S hp tc x
30-35
10
35-40
20
40-45
40
45-50
25
50-55
5
C th tnh nng sut thu hoch la bnh qun ca ton huyn hay khng?

Tr li: khng th tnh nng sut thu hoch la bnh qun ca ton huyn.
2.
iu kin tnh c nng sut bnh qun: trc tin cn phi tnh tr s
gia ca mi t.
Nng sut la bnh qun:

X=

32,5 10 + 37,5 20 + 42,5 40 + 47, 5 25+ 52,5 5

= 42, 25
100

Vy, nng sut bnh qun la ca cc hp tc x nm bo co l: 42,25 (t/ha)

Bi 3.9:
1.
Tc bnh qun ca xe trong tt c lt i v v, bit rng qung ng t
nh ga n nng trng l 120 km
x=

M
M
x

4 120
= 43, 26
120 120 120 120
(km/h)
+
+
+
40 35 45 60

Vy, tc bnh qun ca xe trong tt c lt i v v vi qung qung ng

bng 120 l: 43,26 (km/h)
2.
Nu khng bit qung ng t nh ga n nng trng, trong trng hp
ny vn tnh c vn tc bnh qun. V qung ng l mt (nh nhau) nn ta c
th p dng cng thc:
x=

n
1
x
i

4
1
1
1
1
+ + +
40 35 45 60

= 43, 26

Vy, tc bnh qun ca xe trong tt c lt i v v l 43,26 (km/h)

Bi 3.10: C ti liu v 2 x nghip ch bin thuc Cng ty K cng sn xut mt
loi sn phm trong k nghin cu nh sau:
Qu

I
II
III
IV

X nghip X
Gi thnh
T trng sn
n v sn lng ca tng
phm
qu trong nm
(1000)
(%)
19,5
16
20,2
35
20,4
30
19,8
19

X nghip Y
Gi thnh
T trng sn
n v sn lng ca tng
phm
qu trong nm
(1000)
(%)
20,0
18
21,4
36
19,2
29
18,5
17

1.

Gi thnh bnh qun n v sn phm ca x nghip X:

x=

xd
d
i

19,5 16 + 20, 2 35 + 20, 4 30 +19,8 19

=17,307
100

Vy, gi thnh bnh qun n v sn phm ca x nghip X l: 17,307 nghn ng

2.

Gi thnh bnh qun n v sn phm ca x nghip Y:

x=

d
d
x

i
i

100
= 19,95
18 36
29
17
(nghn ng)
+
+
+
20 21, 4 19, 2 18,5

Vy, gi thnh bnh qun n v sn phm ca x nghip Y l 19,95 nghn ng.

Bi 3.11: C tnh hnh sn xut ti 2 x nghip Dt trong 6 thng ca mt nm nh
sau:
X
nghip

1.

Qu I
Qu II
Sn lng
T trng vi
Sn lng
T trng vi
vi (1000m)
loi I
vi (1000m)
loi I
A
240
90
250
92
B
360
92
350
94
T trng vi loi I bnh qun mi qu ca tng x nghip trong 6 thng:

x f
f
x f
=
f

xA =

i i

90 240 + 92 250
= 245, 05
182

360 92 + 350 94
=354,9
186

xB

i i
i

2.
T trng vi loi I bnh qun chung cho c 2 x nghip trong qu III, IV, v
trong 6 thng cui nm:
- Qu III:
x1 =

x f
f

i i

240 90 + 360 92
=300, 6
182

250 92 + 350 94
=300, 5
186

- Qu IV:
x2 =

x f
f

i i
i

- 6 thng cui nm:

x =

x f
f

i i
i

300, 6 182 + 300,5 186

= 300,54
368

Bi 3.12: C ti liu v tui ngh ca cng nhn 3 t trong mt x nghip c

kh nh sau:
T I 2

T II 3

10

12

15

16

T III 2

10

10

11

12

Trong mi t, tnh tui ngh bnh qun, s mt v s trung v?

* T I:
- Tui ngh bnh qun:

x1 =

2 + 2 + 5 +7 +9 +9 9+ 10+ 10+ 11+ 12 +

=
7, 81
11

- S mt:

Mode = 9

- S trung v: 11=2 x 5 + 1 V tr cha Med l v tr ca x6 => Me =9

* T II:
- Tui ngh bnh qun:
x1 =

- S mt :

3 + 5 + 8 + 10 + 12 + 15 + 16
= 9,85
7

Mode = khng tn ti

- S trung v : 7 = 2 x 3 + 1
* T III:
- Tui ngh bnh qun:

V tr cha Me l v tr ca x4 => Me = 10

x1 =

2 + 3 + 4 +4 +4 +5 5+ 7+ 7+ 8 +
=
4, 9
10

- S mt :

Mode = 4

- S trung v: 10 = 2 x 5

=> Me = (4 + 5) / 2 = 4,5

Bi 3.13:
Ta c ct tr s gia nh sau:
Phn t CN theo
Tr s gia
nng sut lao
ng ngy (kg)
400 450
425
450 500
475
500 600
550
600 800
700
800 1200
1000
Tng
1.
Nng sut lao ng bnh qun:
x=

x f
f

i i
i

S CN

10
15
15
30
5
75

Ri =

fi
di

0,2
0,3
0,15
0,15
0,125

425 10 + 475 15 + 550 15 + 700 30 +1000 5

=608,3
75

Vy nng sut lao ng bnh qun ca cc cng nhn trong m than l 608,3
(kg/CN)
2. Mt v nng sut lao ng ngy ca cng nhn:
f

i
Trc ht, do khong cch t khng u nhau nn ta phi tnh Ri = d . Qua ta
i

thy, t cha t Mode l t 2.

Tr s gn ng ca Mode:
M 0 = xM 0 + iM 0

RM 0 RM 01

( RM 0 RM 01 ) + ( R M 0 R M 01 )

=450 +50

(0,3 0, 2)
=470
(0,3 0, 2) +(0,3 0,15)

(Ta thy: 450 < 470 <500 =>ng)

3.
S trung v v nng sut lao ng ngy ca cng nhn:
T c s Me l t 3
Tr s gn ng ca Me:

f
Me = xMe (min) + hMe

S( Me1)
f Me

75
(10 15)
= 500 +100 2
=583,3
15

Bi 3.14: C ti liu v tui ngh (TN) v tin lng (TL) ca cc cng nhn
nh sau:
TN(nm)
2
2
5
7
9
9
10
11 12
TL (10.000) 633 655 780 810 820 815 850 900 940
1.
Tnh khong bin thin, lch chun, lch tuyt i bnh phng,
phng sai, lch chun ca tng tiu thc?
V tui ngh: x1 = 7
R1 = 12 2 = 10
d=

x x

2 =

(x x )

2 7 + 2 7 + 5 7 + 7 7 + 9 7 + 9 7 + 10 7 + 11 7 + 12 7
= 3,11
9

(2 7) 2 + (2 7)2 + (5 7)2 + (7 7)2 + (9 7)2 + (9 7)2 + (10 7)2 + (11 7)2 + (12 7)2
=12,4
9

4
= 2 = 12, 44 3,52

3, 52

=> V1 = x 100% = 7 100% = 50, 28%

1
V tin lng: x2 = 800,3
R2 = 940 633 = 307
d =
2 =

x x
i

n
( xi x ) 2
n

633 800,3 + 655 800,3 + ............ + 940 800,3

= 74
9
=

(633 800,3) 2 + (655 800,3)2 + ....... + (940 800,3)2

= 9126, 4
9

= 2 = 9126, 4 = 95,5

95,5

=> V2 = x 100% = 800,3 100% = 11,9%

2
=> Ta thy, R1 > R2 bin thin v tui ngh nh hn bin thin v tin
lng tnh cht i biu ca s bnh qun v tui ngh cao hn tnh cht i
biu ca s bnh qun v tin lng.
Bi 3.15:

Nng sut lao ng

30 40
40 50
50 75
75 100
100 125
a.

x f
f

i i

b.

35 10 + 45 30 + 62, 5 40 + 87,5 15 +112,5 5

=60, 75
10 + 30 + 40 + 15 + 5

lch tuyt i bnh qun:

d=

x x f
f
i

35 60, 75 10 + 45 60, 75 30 + ....... + 112, 5 60, 75 5

=14, 6
100

lch chun v NSL:

(x x )
=
f

S CN
10
30
40
15
5

Nng sut lao ng ngy bnh qun:

x=

c.

Tr s gia
35
45
62,5
87,5
112,5

fi

(30 60, 75)2 10 + (45 60, 75)2 30 +....... +(112,5 60, 75) 25
383,18
=
100

= 2 = 10,5

d.
V=

H s bin thin v nng sut lao ng ngy ca cng nhn:

10,5
100% =
100% = 32, 09%
x
60, 75

Bi 3.16: C ti liu v tin lng ca cc cng nhn trong mt doanh nghip

nh sau:
Loi cng nhn
S cng nhn
Mc lng thng mi cng
(ngi)
nhn (10.000)
Th rn
2
170; 180
Th ngui
3
160; 180; 200
Th tin
5
170; 190; 200; 210; 230
1.
Tin lng bnh qun ca cng nhn mi loi v ton th cng nhn:
- Tin lng bnh qun ca cng nhn mi loi:
K hiu:
Th rn: x1
Th ngui: x2
Th tin: x3

x1 =

x2 =
x3 =

170 + 180
= 175 lng bnh qun ca th rn l 1,75 triu ng.
2

160 + 180 + 200

= 180 lng bnh qun ca th ngui l 1,8 triu ng.
3

170 + 190 + 200 + 210 + 230

= 200 lng bnh qun ca th tin l 2 triu
5

ng.
- Tin lng bnh qun ca ton th CN:
x=

x f
f

i i
i

175 2 + 180 3 + 200 5

=189
10

2.
Phng sai chung v cc phng sai t v tin lng:
- Phng sai chung:

(x x)
=

(170 189) 2 + (180 189)2 + (160 189)2 .......+ (230 189)2

= 409
10

- Cc phng sai t v tin lng:

12 =

(x x )

22 =

(x x )

32 =

(x x )

3.

(170 175) 2 + (180 175) 2

= 25
2

(160 180) 2 + (180 180)2 + (200 180)2

= 266, 66
3

(170 200) 2 + (190 200) 2 + (210 200) 2+ (230 200) 2

= 400
5

Phng sai cc s bnh qun t:

2 =

(x x )
f
i

fi

4.

Bnh qun ca cc phng sai t:

f
=
f
2

5.

(175 189)2 2 + (180 189) 2 3 + (200 189) 25

=124
10

25 2 + 266, 66 3 + 400 5
285
10

Dng quy tc cng phng sai kim tra li kt qu tnh ton:

2
2= +
i

=> 409 = 285 + 124 => ng

Bi 3.17: Trong tng s 10000 bng n ca X nghip bng n-phch phch
nc sn xut ra, ngi ta iu tra thy c 200 ph phm. Tnh phng sai ca tiu
thc phm cht bng n sn xut?
Ta c: T l bng n ph phm (xc sut)

p=

200
= 0, 02
10000

T l bng n t tiu chun: q = 1 p = 1 0, 02 = 0,98

Vy t l bng n t tiu chun l 98%
Phng sai ca tiu thc phm cht bng n l:
2 = p q = 0,02 0,98 = 0, 0196

Chng 4: DY S THI GIAN

Bi 4.1
a. y l dy s thi k v ta thy s liu ni v ch tiu kt qu, c th cng
dn.
b. th
c. Doanh thu bnh qun trong mt ngy ca tun 1( n v tnh: triu ng)
Y1

= 140 / 2 + 145 + 134 + 126 / 2 = 137.33

3

Tng t : Y2 =21.28 Y3 =22.85 Y4 =28.28

Doanh thu bnh qun trong c thng:
Y=

20.14 + 21.28 + 22.85 + 28.28

= 23.14
4

Bi 4.2
a. y l dy s thi im.
b. Gi tr hng ho tn kho bnh qun trong mi thng:( n v tnh: triu
ng)
Thng 1: Y1 =

122 + 120
= 121
2

Thng 7: Y7 =147

Thng 2: Y2 =124

Thng 8: Y8 = 146

Thng 3: Y3 = 127

Thng 9: Y9 = 142

Thng 4: Y4 =131

Thng 10: Y10 = 142.5

Thng 5: Y5 =137

Thng 11: Y11 = 130.5

Thng 6: Y6 =143
Thng 12: Y12 = 130
Gi tr hng ho tn kho bnh qun mi qu( triu ng):
Qu 1: Y! =

120 / 2 + 122 + 126 + 128 / 2

= 124
3

Qu 2: YII =

128 / 2 + 134 + 140 + 146 / 2

= 137
3

146 / 2 + 148 + 144 + 140 / 2

= 145
3
140 / 2 + 145 + 134 + 126 / 2
Qu 4: YIV =
= 137.33
3

Qu 3: YIII =

Gi tr hng tn kho bnh qun 6 thng u nm( triu ng):

Y =

124 + 137
=130.5
2

Gi tr hng tn kho bnh qun cho c nm( triu ng):

Y =

124 + 137 + 145 + 137.33

= 135.83.
4

Bi 4.3
a. Dy s v gi tr hng tn kho ca cng ty trong thng 1( n v tnh: triu
ng)
Ngy
1
5
10
20
25
30
Gi tr hng
320
370
310
410
346
346
ho tn kho
b.Gi tr hng ho tn kho bnh qun ti kho trong thng 1:
Y =

320* 4 + 370*5 + 310*10 + 410*5 + 346*6

= 345.2 (triu ng)
30

Bi 4.4
a. Dy s thi gian v s cng nhn trong danh sch ca x nghip nm N
( n v tnh: ngi)
Ngy
1.1
14.1
28.2
16.4
17.8
21.10
31.12
S CN
146
149
156
161
159
162
162
y l dy s thi im.
b. S cng nhn bnh qun trong danh sch ca x nghip:
Y =

146 *13 + 149*15 + 156* 48 + 161*123 + 159*65 + 162*72

= 158.17 (ngi)
366

( Trong nm c cc thng c 31 ngy l: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10, 12 v thng 2 c 29 ngy

v nm l nm nhun).

Bi 4.5
a. Gi tr sn xut thc t bnh qun mi thng (triu ng):
Y =

316 + 336 + 338

= 330
3

b. S cng nhn bnh qun mi thng:

300 + 304
= 302
2
304 + 304
Thng 2: Y2 =
= 304
2
304 + 308
Thng 3: Y3 =
= 306
2

Thng 1: Y1 =

S cng nhn bnh qun ca qu:

Y =

300 / 2 + 304 + 304 + 308 / 2

= 304
3

c. Nng sut lao ng bnh qun ca mi cng nhn qu 1( triu ng/ ngi)
Nng sut = Gi tr sn xut/ lao ng = Tng gi tr sn xut/ S lao ng bnh
qun.
fi =

316 + 336 + 338

= 3.25
304

d. T l % hon thnh k hoch bnh qun trong qu 1

y1
Theo cng thc: tht = y v x =
kh

316 + 336 + 338

Nn ta c: y = 316 + 336 + 338 = 103.68
102 105 104

Nh vy, t l hon thnh vt mc sn xut l 3.68%.

e. Dy s thi gian v nng sut lao ng bnh qun thng.

Thng
Gi tr sn xut thc t
( triu ng)
S cng nhn bnh
qun thng (ngi)
Nng sut lao ng

316

336

338

302

304

306

1.046

1.105

1.104

bnh qun thng (triu

ng/ ngi)
Bi 4.6
a. Lng tng tuyt i lin hon qua cc nm:
2 = y2 y1 = 2200 2000 = 200 ( gi tr sn xut nm 2003 cao hn nm 2002 l 200
triu ng).
3 = y3 y2 = 2442 2200 = 242 ( gi tr sn xut nm 2004 cao hn nm 2003 l 242
triu ng).
4 = y4 y3 = 2704 2442 = 262 ( gi tr sn xut nm 2005 cao hn nm 2004 l 262
triu ng).
5 = y5 y4 = 3040 2704 = 336 ( gi tr sn xut nm 2006 cao hn nm 2005 l 336
triu ng).
Lng tng tuyt i nh gc:
1 = y1 y0 = 0 ( v nm 2002 ly lm gc).
2 = y2 y0 = 200 ( gi tr sn xut nm 2003 cao hn so vi 2002 l 200 triu
ng).
3 = y3 y0 = 442 (gi tr sn xut nm 2004 cao hn so vi 2002 l 442 triu ng).
4 = y4 y0 = 704 (gi tr sn xut nm 2005 cao hn so vi 2002 l 704 triu ng).
5 = y5 y0 = 1040 (gi tr sn xut nm 2006 cao hn so vi 2002 l 1040 triu
ng).
b. Tc pht trin qua cc nm:
* Gi tr lin hon:
t2 =

y2 2200
=
= 1.1 ( tc pht trin ca nm 2003 so vi nm 2002 l 10%).
y1 2000

t3 =

y3
= 1.11 (tc pht trin ca nm 2004 so vi nm 2003 l 11%).
y2

t4 =

y4
= 1.108 (tc pht trin ca nm 2005 so vi nm 2004 l 10.8%).
y3

t5 =

y5
= 1.124 (tc pht trin ca nm 2006 so vi nm 2005 l 12.4%).
y4

Gi tr nh gc:
T1 = 1 (v ly nm 2002 lm gc)

T2 =

y2
= 1.1
y1

T3 =

y3
= 1.221 ( tc pht trin nm 2004 so vi nm gc tng 22.1%)
y1

T4 =

y4
= 1.352 (tc pht trin nm 2005 so vi nm gc tng 35.2%)
y1

T5 =

y5
= 1.52 (tc pht trin nm 2006 so vi nm gc tng 52%).
y1

Tc pht trin bnh qun:

t =

n 1

= 4 1.1*1.11*1.108*1.12 = 4 1.52 = 1.109

Tc pht trin bnh qun qua cc nm l 10.9%.

c. Tc tng qua cc nm:
*Gi tr lin hon:
a2 = t2 1 = 1.1 1 = 0.1 ( nm 2003 so vi nm 2002).
a3 = t3 1 = 1.11 1 = 0.11 (nm 2004 so vi nm 2003).
a4 = t4 1 = 1.108 1 = 0.108 (nm 2005 so vi nm 2004).
a5 = t5 1 = 1.124 1 = 0.124 ( nm 2006 so vi nm 2005).
*Gi tr nh gc:
b1 = T1 1 = 0 ( ly nm 2002 lm gc).
b2 = T2 1 = 0.11
b3 = T3 1 = 0.221
b4 = T4 1 = 0.352
b5 = T5 1 = 0.52

Tc tng bnh qun:

a = t 1 = 1.109 1 = 0.109 nh vy tc tng bnh qun qua cc nm l 10.9%.

d. Gi tr tuyt i ca 1% tng qua cc nm( 1% tng ng vi s tng ln mt

lng tuyt i).
c2 =

2
2000
=
= 20
a2 (%) 0.1*100

y2 2200
=
= 22
100 100
y
2442
c4 = 3 =
= 24.42
100 100
c3 =

c5 =

y4 2709
=
= 27.09
100 100

Bi 4.7
a. Ch tiu lng tuyt i l lng tng tuyt i lin hon( sn lng qua cc
nm u tng).
b. Bng tnh hnh sn xut ca mt x nghip:
Cn c lp bng
a97 =

G97 G96
G97 = G96 .a97 + G96 = 0,16 78 + 78 = 90, 48
G96

98 = G98 G97 G98 = G97 + 98 = 90, 48 + 13 = 103, 48

G99
= 1,13 G99 = 113
100
G
G .t
113 106
t00 = 00 100 G00 = 99 00 =
= 119, 78
G99
100
100
c00 =

G01 = G00 + 01 = 119, 78 + 9 = 128, 78

G02 =

t02 .G01 128, 78 105

=
= 135, 22
100
100

V p dng cc cng thc:

i = Gi Gi 1
G
ti = i
Gi 1
ai = ti 100

ci = i
ai

Ch tiu
1.Gi tr sn xut( G-triu
ng)
2.Lng tuyt i tng( triu ng)
3.Tc pht trin lin
hon(t- %)
4.Tc tng(a- %)
5.Gi tr tuyt i ca 1%

96
78
-

97
90,4
8
12,4
8

98
103,4
8

99

00

113

119,78

9,52

6,78

6,44

116

114,38 109,2

106

107,5

105

16
0,78

14,38
0,9

6
1,13

7,5
1,2

5
1,29

13

9,2
1,03

01
128,7
8

02
135,22

tng(c- triu ng)

c. Tc pht trin bnh qun hng nm ch tiu gi tr sn xut ca x nghip:
t = n 1 ti = n 1

yn 6 135, 22
=
= 109.59
y1
78

Nh vy, t nm 1996 n nm 2002 tc pht trin bnh qun ca x nghip l

9.59%/nm.
Bi 4.8
Tc pht trin nh gc ca ch tiu li nhun ca x nghip: (2001 = 100 % )
Nm
2001 2002 2003 2004
Tc pht trin nh gc(%)
100
112
134
146
b. Tc pht trin lin hon qua cc nm:
T2 =

y2
y 112 y1
= 112 y2 = 112 y1 t2 = 2 =
= 112 ( nm 2002 so vi nm 2001).
y1
y1
y1

134
= 119.6% (nm 2003 so vi nm 2002).
112
146
T4 = t4 .t3 .t2 = 146 t3 =
= 108.9% (nm 2004 so vi nm 2003).
112*119.6
T3 = t3 .t2 = 134 t3 =

c. Tc tng bnh qun li nhun trong ca giai on 2001- 2004:

Ta c:
t = 3 t2 .t3 .t4 = 113.4 nn a = t 100 = 13.4%
Nh vy, tc tng bnh qun trong giai on ny ca x nghip l 13.4%.
Bi 4.9
a. y l dy s thi k.
b. Ta c bn kt qu sn xut tng tun ca x nghip tron thng Hai:
Tun
GT sn lng(triu ng)
I
1409
II
1508
III
1547
IV
1694
Nhn xt: Gi tr sn lng tng dn theo tng tun.

c. iu chnh doanh s bng s bnh qun di ng vi khong cch san bng l

5:
Ngy
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

GT sn lng
( triu ng)
201
202
204
191
196
210
205
213
215
210
208
219
220
223

S BQDD

Ngy

198.8
200.6
201.2
203
207.8
210.6
210.2
213
214.4
216
213.2
209.6

15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

Gi tr sn lng
( triu ng)
196
190
228
230
234
233
236
234
238
239
245
242
246
250

Bi 4.10
Nm
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

Doanh thu
(t ng)
346
369
441
354
506
516
467
521
566
648

a. Xy dng ng hi quy tuyn tnh:

Phng trnh tuyn tnh: Yi = a + bti
Ta c:

= na + b ti

Th t nm ( t )
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

S BQDD
211.4
213.4
215.6
223
232.2
233.4
235
236
238.4
239.6
242
244.6
-

yt

i i

2
i

= 385

= a ti + b ti 2

= 4734

yt

i i

= 28460

4734 = 10a + 55b

28460 = 55 a + 385b

a = 311.866

b = 29.3696
Nh vy phng trnh tuyn tnh l: Yi = 311.886 + 29.3696ti

b. D bo doanh thu ca doanh nghip nm 2010:

Vo nm 2010 th ti =14, ta c doanh thu l:
DT = 311.866 + 29.2696*14 = 723.04 ( t ng).

Chng 5 : CH S
Bi 5.1
Gi bn
( 1000)
K
K bo
gc
co
(1)
(2)
300
320
175
180
140
150

Lng hng bn
(chic)
p1q1
p0 q1
p0 q0
Sn
K bo
phm
K gc
co
(3)
(4)
(5)=(2)(4) (6)=(1)(4) (7)=(1)(3)
A
4000
4200
1344000 1260000 1200000
B
3100
3120
561600
546000
542500
C
200
210
31500
29400
28000
Tng
1037100 1835400 1770500
a. Ch s phn nh tnh hnh bin ng v gi bn ring cho tng loi sn
phm:
* Sn phm A:
i pa =

p1 320
=
= 1.066
p0 300

p = p1 p0 = 320 300 = 20

Gi ca sn phm A vo k bo co tng 6.6% so vi k gc, tng ng mt s

tng v lng l 20000ng.
Sn phm B:
ip =

p1 180
=
= 1.028
p0 175

p = p1 p0 = 180 175 = 5

Gi ca sn phm B vo k bo co tng 2.8% so vi k gc, tng ng mt s

tng v lng l 5000ng.
Sn phm C:
ip =

p1 150
=
= 1.071
p0 140

p = p1 p0 = 150 140 = 10

Gi ca sn phm C vo k bo co tng 7.1% so vi k gc, tng ng mt s

tng v lng l 10000ng.
Ch s chung v gi bn:
Ip =

p q = 1937100 = 1.055
p q 1835400
) = p q p q = 1937100 1835400 = 101700
1 1

0 1

pq( p

1 1

0 1

Nh vy, k bo co gi chung cho tt c cc sn phm tng 5.5% tng ng vi

lng tng v gi l 101700000ng.
b. Ch s phn nh tnh hnh bin ng v lng bn ring cho tng loi sn
phm:
* Sn phm A:
q = q1 q0 = 4200 4000 = 200

iq =

q1 4200
=
=1.05
q0 4000

Lng bn ca sn phm A vo k bo co tng 5% so vi k gc, tng ng mt

s tng v lng l 200 chic.
Sn phm B:
iq =

q1 3120
=
= 1.006
q0 3100

q = q1 q0 = 3120 3100 = 20

Lng bn ca sn phm B vo k bo co tng 0.6% so vi k gc, tng ng

mt s tng v lng l 20 chic.
Sn phm C:
iq =

q1 210
=
= 1.05
q0 200

q = q1 q0 = 210 200 = 10

Lng bn ca sn phm C vo k bo co tng 5% so vi k gc, tng ng mt

s tng v lng l 10 chic.
Ch s chung v lng bn:
Iq =

p q = 1835400 = 1.036
p q 1770500
) = p q p q = 1835400 1770500 = 64900
0 1

0 0

pq( q

0 1

0 0

Nh vy, k bo co lng bn chung cho tt c cc sn phm tng 3.6% tng

ng vi lng tng v lng bn l 64900000chic.
c. Bng thng k cc ch s:
Sn phm
Ch s v gi bn
Ch s v lng bn
A
1.066
1.05
B
1.028
1.006
C
1.071
1.05
Ch s chung
1.055
1.036
Bi 5.2

Sn lng
(kg)
Z1Q1
Z0Q1
Z0Q0
T1
T2
Q0
Q2
(3)
(4) (5)=(2)(4) (6)=(1)(4) (7)=(1)(3)
A
5000 6000
114000
120000
100000
B
80
100
20500
21000
16800
134500
141000
116800
800
A
20
19 7000
152000
160000
140000
0
B
220
210
50
60
12600
13200
11000
Tng
164600
173200
151000
Tng ca tt c ch tiu
299100
314200
267800

Tn
Tn x
sn
nghip
phm
X

Gi thnh
(1000 )
T1
T2
Z0
Z1
(1)
(2)
20
19
210
205
Tng

a. Ch s phn nh bin ng v ch tiu gi thnh n v sn phm ca ton b

sn phm mi x nghip:

z q
z q
z q
=
z q
z q
=
z q
z q
=
z q

I PX =

1 1

1 1

0 1

164600
= 0,95 = 95%
173200

141000
= 1, 207 = 120, 7%
116800

173200
= 1,147 = 114, 7%
151000

I qY

I qX

134500
= 0,953 = 95,3%
141000

I PY

0 1
0

Gi thnh sn phm ca x nghip X gim 4,7%; ca x nghip Y gim 5%.

Sn lng sn phm ca x nghip X tng 20,7%; ca x nghip Y tng 14,7%.
b. Ch s phn nh cc ch tiu v gi thnh v sn lng ton b sn phm ca
cng ty:
Ip =

z q
z q

299100
= 0,9519 = 95,19%
314200

z q
z q

314200
= 1,173 = 117,3%
267800

1 1

0 0

Iq =

0 1

0 0

gi thnh sn phm ca cng ty gim 4,81%

S lng sn phm ca cng ty tng 17,3%.
c.Tnh ch s chung v gi thnh, s lng ca mi sn phm cng ty
Gi thnh
T1
T2
(1)
(2)

S lng
T2
(4)

T1
(3)

X
Y

20
21

19
19

5000
7000

6000
8000

X
Y
Tng

210
220

205
210

80
50

100
60

Z1q1
(5) = (1)
(4)
114000
152000
266000
20500
12600
33100

Zoq1
(6)= (1)
(4)
120000
168000
288000
21000
13200
34200

Zoqo
(7)= (1)
(3)
100000
147000
247000
16800
11000
27800

IpA =

z q
z q

1 1

0 1

266000
= 0,923 = 92,3%
288000

IqA =

288000
= 1,165 = 116,5%
247000

IpB =

33100
= 0,967 = 96, 7%
34200

IqB =

z q
z q

0 1

0 0

34200
= 1, 23 = 123%
27800

gi thnh sn phm A ca c cng ty gim 7,7%, sn phm B ca cng ty gim

3,3%.
S lng sn phm A c cng ty tng 16,5%, sn phm B tng 23%.
3. phn tch cc yu t nh hng n s bin ng tng hi ph sn xut ton b
sn phm ca cng ty:

z q = z q .z q
z q z q z q
( z q z q ) = ( z q z q ) + ( z q z q )
1 1

1 1

0 1

0 0

0 1

0 0

-khi chi ph sn xut tng

11,68% th gi thnh sn
299100 299100 314200

=
.
phm gim 4,9% v sn
267800 314200 267800
(299100 267800) = (299100 314200) + (314200 267800) lng tng 17,3%.
1,1468 = 0,951.1,173
-chi ph sn xut tng
31300 = 15100 + 46400
31300(nghn ng) th gi
thnh sn phm gim 15100(nghn ng) v sn lng tng 46400(nghn ng).
1 1

0 0

1 1

0 0

0 1

0 0

Bi 5.3
Nhm hng
A
B
C

Mc tiu th(1000)
2007
2008
3000
3000
2500
4200
4500
7800
Poqo
P1q1

a.tnh ch s chung v gi c.

Tc pht trin (%) v

Gi bn
S lng
100
100
93,3
180
86,6
200
ip
Iq

Ip =

pq
pq
ip

1 1

1 1

300 + 4200 + 7800

15000
=
= 0,908 = 90,8%
300
4200
7800 16508,5
+
+
100% 93,3% 86, 6%

pq ( p ) = p1q1 p0 q0 = 1508,53

b.Ch s chung v lng hng ho tiu th.

Iq =

iqp q
p q

0 0

0 0

100.300 + 180.2500 + 200.4500

= 165%
3000 + 2500 + 4500

c.Phn tch nh hng ca s thay i gi c v lng hng ho tiu th i vi s

thay i mc tiu th hng ho.
Ta c: phng trnh kinh t:

M = pq
pq = pq p q
pq p q pq
1 1

1 1

0 1

0 0

0 1

0 0

15000 15000 16508,5

=

10000 16508,5 10000

1,5

= 0,9

. 1,65

( p1q1 p0 q0 ) = ( p1 q1 p0 q1 ) + ( p0 q1 p0 q0 )
(15000 10000) = (15000 16508,5) + (16508,5 10000)

5000
= ( -1508,5 ) + 6508,5
Nhn xt: Mc tiu th hng ho qua 2 nm tng 50% tng ng mt s tng v
lng l 5 triu ng, do nh hng ca 2 nhn t:
- Do gi bn gim 10%, tng ng lm mc tiu thu hng ho gim 1,508
triu ng.
- Do lng hng ho tng 65%, tng ng lm mc tiu th hng ho tng 6,5
triu ng.
Bi 5.4
T trng mc tiu th
hng ho k bo co
Tn hng

p1 q1
p1 q1

A
B
C

30
45
25

Ch s gi
(ip)
120
105
100

Theo gi thuyt: mc tiu th hng ho chung cho c 3 mt hng k bo co so vi

k gc tng 25%

pq
pq

= 125

1 1

0 0

V gi tr tuyt i ca mt phn trm tng l 1,2 t ng

p q = 1, 2
p q = 1, 2 100 = 120(ty )
(4) p q = 1, 25 120 = 150(ty )
0 0

0 0

1 1

p1q1 ( A)
= 30% p1q1 ( A) = 45
p1q1

Tng t: p1q1 ( B) = 67,5

p1q1 (C ) = 37,5
1.
Ch s chung v gi c:
Ip =

pq
pq
ip

1 1

1 1

150
= 1, 0769
45 67,5 37,5
+
+
1, 2 1, 05
1

tin chi thm ca ngi mua do tng gi

45 67,5 37,5
pq ( P ) = 150
+
+
= 10, 714(ty )
1
1, 2 1, 05

2. Ch s chung v lng hng ha tiu th:

Ip =

p1q1 = p1q1 = 1, 0769

poq1 p1q1

p 0q1 =
Iq =

ip
p1q1
= 139, 285
ip

p0q1 = 139, 285 = 1,1607

p0q0 120

tin chi thm ca ngi mua do mua thm hng ho

pq ( P ) = 139, 285 120 = 19, 285(ty )

c. phn tch nh hng ca cc nhn t n bin ng ca mc tiu th hng ho 2

k

 p1q1 = p1q1 p0q1

p0q0 p0q1 p0qo
p q p q = ( p q p q ) +( p q p q )
1 1

0 0

1 1

0 1

0 1

0 0

150
150
139, 285
=

(ty )
120 139, 285
120

(150-120) =(150 139.285) + (139,285 120)

1,25 =1,0769 1,1607
30= 10,715+ 19,285
Nhn xt: Mc tiu th hng ha 2 k tng 25%, tng ng mt s tng v
lng 30 t, do nh hng ca 2 nhn t:
-Do gi c ca 3 loi hng ha tng 7,69%, lm gi c bnh qun 10,715 (t
ng).
-Do c s thay i v kt cu lng hng ha mua ca 2 k lm gi c bnh
qun tng 19,285 t ng.
Bi 5.5

Sn phm

Gi tr sn xut
Q1
Q2

A
B

105
110
620
650
(zoqo)
(z1q1)
1.Tnh cc ch s chung theo th t
*ch s sn lng:
Iq =

iqz q
z q

0 0

0 0

1,15.105 + 1, 05.620
= 1, 0644
105 + 620

*ch s tng chi ph sn xut:

Izq =

z q
z q

1 1

0 0

110 + 650
= 1, 0482
105 + 620

*ch s gi thnh:
Iz =

Izq 1, 0482
=
= 0,9847
Iq 1, 0644

2.Tnh cc ch s chung theo th t:

*Ch s tng chi ph sn xut:

Tc tng sn
lng qu II so
vi qu I
15
5

Tc pht
trin q1/qo=iq
115
105

I ZQ =

z q
z q

1 1

= 1, 0482

0 0

*ch s gi thnh:

z q
z q

IZ =

1 1
0 1

M:
q1

z q = iq.z q = q
0 1

0 0

.z0 q0

= 1,15.105 + 1, 05.620 = 771, 75

Iz =

z q
z q

1 1

0 1

110 + 650
= 0,9847
771, 75

*ch s sn lng:
Iq =

Izq
= 1, 0644
Iz

Bi 5.6
a.Ch s chung v lng hng ha tiu th:
Iq =

i p q
p q
q

0 0

0 0

1, 05 0,3 + 1, 04 0, 25 + ... + 1,12 0, 07

= 1, 055 hay 105,5%
0,3 + 0, 25 + 0, 23 + 0,15 + 0, 07

b.Bng tnh hnh mc tiu th hng ha v lng hng ha ti mt th trng:

iq
Tn hng
T trng mc tiu th hng
ha k gc(%)
A
30
1,05
B
25
1,04
C
23
1,045
D
15
1,08
E
7
1,12
Ta c mc tiu th hng ha chung k bo co tng so vi k gc l 10% nn
I pq = 110% hay I pq = 1,1
I pq =

pq
pq

1 1

0 0

1,1

pq
M I pq = I p I q I p = I = 1, 05 = 1, 047
q

Bi 5.7

Sn phm
A
B
C

z0 q0
(%)
z0 q0

27
15
58

q1
= iq
q0

z0 q0

1,05
1,07
1,2

238,999
132,777
513,4073

Theo gi thuyt:

z q

1 1

= 956

z q = 1, 08
z q
zoqo = 885,185
Izq =

1 1

0 0

a.Ch s chung v khi lng sn phm:

Iq =

i z q
z q

q 0 0
0 0

105.238,999 + 1, 07.132, 777 + 1, 2.513, 4073

= 1,13999
885,185

b.Ch s chung v gi thnh:

Iz =

I zq
Iq

1, 08
= 0,9473
1,3999

c.phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n s thay i ca tng chi ph sn xut qua 2 k.

Ta c:

z q

0 1

n!

r !( n r )!

q1
z0q.
=0

z q = z q . z q
z q z q z q
z q =

( z q
) ( z q
1 1

1 1

0 0

0 1

1 1

0 0

iq z0=q. 0

1009,1091

0 0

1 1

z0q+
1

z( q
)

0 1

z0q0

1,08= 0,9473.1,13999
70,815 =53,1094+ 123,9241

Nhn xt:Tng chi ph sn xut tng 8% tng ng vi mt lng tng tuyt i

70,815 triu ng, do nh hng ca 2 nhn t:
-Gi thnh gim 5,37%, lm tng chi ph sn xut gim 53,1094( n v)
-Do c s thay i kt cu v khi lng 3 sn phm lm cho tng chi ph sn xut
tng 123,92 triu ng.

Bi 5.8.
aTtnh gi bn bnh qun 1gi hng ha trn cho tng thng.
*thng 6:
p0 =

pq
q

0 0
0

5,5.5000 + 5, 6.5000
= 5,55(ngdong )
10000

*thng 7:
p1 =

pq
q

1 1

6,5.7000 + 6, 25.6000
= 6,3846(ngdong )
13000

b.lp h thng ch s phn tch s bin ng gi bnh qun ni trn:

ta c:
p 01 =

pq
q

0 1

5,5.7000 + 5, 6.6000
= 5,5461(ngdong )
13000

p1
p p
= 1 . 01
p 0 p 01 p0

( p p ) = ( p p ) +( p
1

01

01

p0

6, 3846 6,3846 5,5461

=
.
5, 55
5,5461 5,55

( 6, 3846 5,55 ) = ( 6,3846 5,5461) + ( 5,5461 5,55)

1,15 = 1,151187.0,99
0,8346 = 0,8385 + 0, 0039

Gi bn bnh qun tng 15% tng ng vi tng 1lng tuyt i l 0,8346(ngn

ng).
Do gi bn ca 2 khu vc tng15,12% lm gi bn bnh qun tng 0,8385(ngn
ng).
Do c s thay i v kt cu lng hng bn ra ca 2 k lm gi bn bnh qun gim
0,0039( ngn ng).
c.phn tch bin ng ca doanh s bn ra theo nhn t: gi bn, kt cu lng hng,
khi lng hng bn ra.

 p q = 55500
p q = 83000
q = 10000
q = 13000
p . p p . p p . p
pq
=
.
.
p q p q p . p p . p
( p q p q ) = ( p p ) . q + ( p
0 0

1 1

1 1

0 0

01

01

1 1

0 0

01

01

p0 . q1 + ( p1 p0 ) . p0

82999,8 6,3846.13000 5,54651.13000 5,55.13000

=
.
.
55500
5,5461.13000 5,55.13000 5,55.10000
304599,8 = 10900,5 + ( 50, 7) + 10650

1, 5 = 1,15.0,819.1,3
27499,8 = 10900,5 50, 7 + 16650

Nhn xt: Doanh s bn ra tng 50%, tng ng mt s tng v lng l 27,499

triu ng, do nh hng ca 3 nhn t:
-Gi bn tng 15%, lm gi bn bnh qun 2 thng tng 10,9 triu ng.
-Do c s thay i v kt cu lng hng bn ra lm cho doanh s bn ra gim 50,7
nghn ng.
-Do khi lng hng bn ra tng 30% lm cho doanh s bn ra tng 16650 nghn
ng.
Bi 5.9.
a.Phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n s bin ng nng sut lao ng bnh qun
ton a phng:
Ta c: Nng sut= Gi tr sn xut/ s lao ng
0 0

W 01

01

W 1 W 1 W 01
=
.
W 0 W 01 W 0

(W

T1

W T . T
W

=
=
T
T

) (

) (

140
317
+ 8000.
200
200 = 50, 7721
140 + 317

15000.

W 0 = W 1 W 01 + W 01 W 0

1, 3319 = 1,5099.0,88211
19, 086 = 25,8639 6, 7779

- Nng sut lao ng bnh qun qua 2 nm tng 33,19%, tng ng tng 1 lng
tuyt i l 19,086(t ngi).

- Do nng sut lao ng ca 2 nghnh tng 50,99%, lm nng sut lao ng bnh
qun tng 25,8639(t ngi).
-Do c s thay i v kt cu lao ng lm nng sut lao ng bnh qun gim
6,7779( t ng/ ngi)
b. phn tich s bin ng gi tr sn xut theo 3 nhn t : nng sut lao ng, kt cu
lao ng, s lng lao ng.
W 1. T1

W 0 . T0

W 1. T1 W 01.
.
W 01. T1 W 0.

( W . T W
1

T. W . T
T W . T
. T) =( W . T W .
)T (
0

01

+W 01.

T
.0
1 W

) T(
1

W+ .01 T W .0 0 T

76, 586.457 76, 586.457 50, 7221.457 57, 5.457

=
.
.
57, 5.400
50, 7221.457 57, 5.457 57, 5.400
11999,8 = 11819,8 3097,5 + 3277, 5

1, 52 =1, 5.0,882.1,14
11999,8 = 11819,8 3097,5 +3277, 5

Nhn xt:
Ga tr sn xut tng 52% tng ng 1lng tng tuyt i l 11999,8 t ng.
-Do nng sut lao ng ca 2 nghnh tng 50% lm gi tr sn xut tng 11819,8 t
ng.
-Do c s thay i v kt cu lao ng lm gi tr sn xut gim 3097,5 t ng.
-Do s lng lao ng tng 14% lm gi tr sn xut tng 3277,5 t ng.
Bi 5.10.
a. Tnh gi thnh bnh qun n v sn phm cc qu ca c x nghip.
Z 0 = Z 0 d 0 = 11, 05 + 12, 03 + 13, 02 = 11, 7

Z 1 = Z1d1 = 10, 23.0, 25 + 11, 25.0, 25 + 13,11.0,5 = 11,92

b.Dng phng php ch s phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n s thay i gi

tr bnh qun.
Z 1 Z 1 Z 01
=
.
Z 0 Z 01 Z 0

Vi:

Z 01 = Z 0 d1 = 11, 25 + 12, 025 + 13, 05 = 12, 25

(Z

) (

) (

Z 0 = Z 1 Z 01 + Z 01 Z 0

1, 02 = 0,97.1, 047
0, 225 = 0,325 + 0,55

Gi thnh bnh qun tng 2% tng ng tng 1 lng tuyt i l 0,225

(ngn ng)
-Do gi thnh gim 3%lm gi thnh bnh qun gim 0,325ngn ng.
-Do c s thay i v kt cu sn lng lm gi thnh bnh qun tng 0,55 ngn
ng.

CHNG 6: IU TRA CHN MU V C LNG

Bi 6.1
a. Nng sut lao ng bnh qun ca s cng nhn c iu tra
x=

x .f
f
i

450.15 + 550.60 + 650.25

= 560 ( kg/ngy)
100

b.

phng sai mu v nng sut lao ng

S 2 =

(x x )
f
i

fi

(450 560) 2 15 + (550 560)2 60 + (650 560)2 25

=3900
100

c.Sai s bnh qun chn mu khi suy rng nng sut lao ng bnh qun chung
cho c x nghip:
Xn =

2
S 2
3900
=
=
= 6, 276
n
n 1
100 1

d.T l s cng nhn bnh qun c nng sut lao ng t 600 tr ln:
w=

25
= 0, 25
100

Phng sai mu v s cng nhn c nng sut lao ng t 600 tr ln:

S 2 = w(1-w)=0,25(1-0,25)=0,1875

e.Sai s bnh qun chn mu khi suy rng ra t l chung ca c x nghip v s

cng nhn c nng sut lao ng t 600 tr ln:
Fn =

S 2
0,1875
=
= 0, 0435
n 1
100 1

Bi 6.2
a.Phm vi sai s chn mu khi suy rng

( xz

/2

. x n ; x + z / 2 . x n

Ta c:
x=

x .f
f
i

= 995, 75

Phng sai mu:

s

(x x )
=
f
i

fi

Xn =

(350 995, 75) 2 20 + ... + (1650 995, 75)2 23

= 141044, 4375
200

S 2 N n
141044, 4375 2000 200

= 25, 25
n 1
N
200 1
2000

Tra bng: Z / 2 = 1,96

phm vi sai s:
= z / 2 . x n = 1,96.25, 25 = 49, 49

b.t l mu v s cng nhn c nng sut lao ng t 1200 kg tr ln:

w=

37 + 23
= 0,3
200

Vi = 13,16

c.

Z / 2 = 1,51
Phm vi sai s chn mu khi nng sut lao ng t 1200kg tr ln:
= Z / 2 . Fn

Vi:
Fn

2 N n
W (1 W ) N n
0.3(1 0,3) 2000 200
=
.
=
.
=
.
= 0, 0308
n 1 N
n 1
N
200 1
2000

phm vi sai s:
= Z / 2 . Fn = 1,51.0, 0308 = 0, 046508

Bi 6.3
T l ph phm ca ton kho l: w= 20/400=0,05

w(1 w)
0, 05(1 0, 05)
=
= 0, 0109
n 1
400 1
= Z / 2 . Fn = 0, 02
Fn =

Suy rng t l ph phm ca ton kho :

w Z / 2 . Fn p w + Z / 2 . Fn
0, 05 0, 02 p 0, 05 + 0, 02
0, 03 p 0, 07

T l ph phm ton kho nm trong khong 0,03 v 0,07

*S suy rng ny m bo tin cy l:
= Z / 2 . Fn = 0, 02
Z / 2 .0.0109 = 0, 02 Z / 2 = 1,83

Tra bng:
Z / 2 = 1,83 = Z0,4664
1 = 2 0, 4664

Vy tin cy l: 93,28%
Bi 6.4

Phn t theo s
lng cng
nhn(ngi)
Di 500
500-700
700-900
900 tr ln
N

S x
nghip
5
8
6
6

S cng
nhn
(ngi)

Ni

n i = 10% N i

Wi

2000
5000
4900
5100

10000
40000
29400
30600
110000

1000
4000
2940
3060

0,02
0,03
0,05
0,07

Vi tin cy 95%
Z / 2 = 1,96

T l cng nhn ang theo hc ti lp ti chc l:

w Z / 2 . Fn p w + Z / 2 . Fn

Trc ht ta tnh:

wi (1 wi ) N i2 N i n i
.
.
ni 1 N 2
Ni

Fn =

i =1

0, 02.(1 0, 02) 100002 10000 1000

0, 07(1 0, 07) 30600 2 30600 3060
=
.
.
+ ... +
.
.
1000 1
1100002
10000
3060 1
110000 2
30600
= 1, 46.107 + 8, 66.10 7 + 1.04.10 6 + 1, 48.10 6 = 1,87.10 3

w=

wn
n

0, 02.1000+ 0, 03.4000 + 0, 05.2940 +0, 07.3060

=
0, 0455=
11000

i i
i

t l cng nhn ang theo hc lp ti chc l:

w Z / 2 . Fn P w + Z / 2 . Fn
0, 0455 1,96.1,87.103 P 0, 0455 + 1,96.1,87.103
0, 042 P 0, 049

Vy t l cng nhn ang theo hc lp ti chc nm trong khong:

0,042 n 0,049
Bi 6.5
a.c lng trng lng bnh qun mi chi tit my sn xut trong thng
x kx =

x = 52
n

( x x )
5

2
kx

kx

i =1

.ni

n
i =1

( 50 52 )
=

.400 + ( 49 52 ) .400 + ( 53 52 ) .400 + ( 55 52 ) .400

2000
2

= 4,8

Xc sut = 0,4595
Z / 2 2
k

xn =
=

sk x 2
k 1

k ni 2
i =1

K k
K

4,8 5.5.4002 100 5

.
.
= 1, 0677
5 1 20002
100

Trng lng bnh qun mi chi tiy my sn xut trong thng l:

x Z / 2 . xn X x Z / 2 . xn
52 2 1, 0677 52 + 2 1, 0677
49,8646 X 54,1354

Vy trng lng bnh qun mi chi tit my trong thng nm trong khong t:
49,8646 n 54,1354 (g)
b. phm vi sai s
= Z / 2 . xn = 3

Tnh xc sut:
Z / 2 .1, 0677 = 3 Z / 2 = 2,809 = Z0,005
1 = 0, 01
(1 = 2.0, 005)

Vy xc sut l 99%
c.Tnh s hm cn chn ra iu tra bit xc sut: 0,6833
Z / 2 1

= 0, 7( g ) n =

Z 2 / 2 . 2 12.4,8
=
= 9,8
2x
0, 72

Vy s hm cn iu tra l 10 hm.
Bi 6.6
a.Tui ngh bnh qun ca s cng nhn c iu tra:
x=

5 + 7 + ... + 13
= 9,33
15

b. Phng sai v tui ngh:

S 2 =

(x x )
f
i

fi

(5 9, 33) 1 + ... + (13 9,33)2 1

= 29, 42
15
2

c.c lng tui ngh bnh qun s cng nhn:

Ta c: 1 = 0,935 Z / 2 = 1,84
Sai s bnh qun chn mu:
Xn

2 N n
29, 42 300 15
=

= 1,365
n
N
15
300

Khong c lng tui ngh bnh qun ca s cng nhn trong c x nghip:

x Z / 2 . X n X x + Z / 2 . X n
9, 33 1,84 1,365 X 9,33 + 1,84 1,365
6,82 X 11,84

Nh vy tui ngh bnh qun ca cng nhn nm trong khong 6,82 n 11,84.
Bi 6.7
a. D liu ny c thu thp theo phng php chn mu phn loi.
b. c lng ch tiu trung bnh ca 1 h thnh ph (1-=0,95)
Ta c:

x=

Trung bnh chi tiu ca h ngoi :

0,8 + 1, 09 + ..... + 2, 6
= 1, 49
10

x1 =

Trung bnh chi tiu ca h ven :

x2 =

(2, 2 + 2, 2 + ... + 8)
= 4, 735
20

Trung bnh chi tiu ca h trung tm:

x=

3, 4 + 3,5 + ... + 9,3

= 6, 65
30

c lng im:

x .N = 1, 49.500 + 4, 735.1000 + 6, 65.1500 = 5,151

3000
N
( x x ).n = (0,8 1, 49) .1 + .... + (2, 6 1, 49) .1 = 0,3149
S =
10
n
x=

1i

2
1

1i

1i

S 2 = 3,1163
2

S32 = 3, 28

Xn =
=

Si 2 Ni 2 Ni ni
. 2 .

Ni
i =1 n 1 N
3

0,3149 5002 500 10 3,1163 10002 1000 200 3, 28 15002 1500 30

.
.
+
.
.
+
.
10 1 30002
500
20 1 30002
1000
30 1 30002 1500

= 9,52.104 + 0, 0178 + 0, 0277 = 0, 216

 c lng ch tiu trung bnh ca 1h thnh ph:

Z / 2 = 1, 96
x Z / 2 . xn X x + Z / 2 . xn
5,1516 1,96.0, 216 X 5,1516 + 1,96.0, 216
4, 72824 X 5,57496

Vy ch tiu trung bnh ca 1 h thnh ph nm trong khong t

4,72884 n 5,57496 (triu ng)
c. c lng t l h ca thnh ph c tng chi tiu t 5 triu ng tr ln
tin c 99%
Z / 2 2,5

T l h c chi tiu ln hn hoc bng 5 triu ng l:

W= 33/60 =0,55
Phng sai mu:
S 2 = w(1 w) = 0, 2475

Sai s bnh qun chn mu:

Fn

S2
0, 2475
=
=
= 0, 065
n 1
60 1

c lng t l h thnh ph c tng chi tiu t 5 triu ng tr ln:

w Z / 2 . Fn P w + Z / 2 . Fn
0,55 2,5.0, 065 P 0,55 + 2,5.0, 065
0,382 P 0, 717

Vy t l h thnh ph c chi tiu t 5 triu ng tr ln nm trong khong t

0,382 n 0,717.
d.Xc nh kch thc mu cn iu tra nu cn c lng chi tiu trung bnh,
di khong tin cy 1,1 triu ng/h: 1- =99%
Dx = ( x + Z / 2 . xn 2 ) ( x Z / 2 . xn 2 ) = 2.Z / 2 .xn = 1,1

Kch tht mu cn iu tra:

n = 4.

Vi:

Z 2 / 2 . 2 Z 2 / 2 . 2
=
D2x
2x

 (x x ) n
=
n
2

(1, 49 5,15) 2 500 + (4, 735 5,15)2 1000 + (6, 65 5,15)2 1500
=
3000
= 3, 415

.N
=
N
2
i

0,3149 500 + 0,1163 1000 + 3, 28 1500

= 2, 73
3000

= + S 2 = 2, 73 + 3, 415 = 6,145
2

Nh vy: n = 4

Z2 / 2 2
2,582 6,145
=
4

= 135
Dx2
1,12

f.Xc nh kch thc mu cn iu tra c lng t l h c tng chi tiu t 5 triu

ng tr ln:
D=4,5% 1 = 95%
Vi tin cy 95%
Z / 2 = 1,96
n=4

Z2 / 2 p (1 p ) Z2 / 2 p(1 p )
=
D p2
2p

1,962 0,55(1 0,55)

=4
= 1878
0, 0452

Vy kch thc mu cn iu tra y l 1787 h.

Bi 6.8
a.Vic ly mu trn ca doanh nghip thuc loi ly mu phn loi.
b. c lng trng lng bnh qun mt bao bt m trong tng kho vi tin cy
95%:
* Kho 1:
Gi tr trung bnh:
x1 =

x f
f

i i
i

30 2 + 31 3 + 32 4 + 33 1
= 31, 4 (kg)
10

Khong c lng:
( x1 Z / 2 X n ; x1 + Z / 2 X n )

 (x x )
f

S 2 =

Vi:

1i

fi

(30 31, 4) 2 + ... + (33 31, 4)2 1

=
= 0,84
10
2

Ta c: X =
n1

S 2 N1 n
0,84 500 10

= 0, 287
n
N1
10
500

1 = 0, 95 = 0, 05 Z / 2 = 1,96

Khong c lng:
x1 Z / 2 . X n1 X1 x1 + Z / 2 . X n1
31, 4 1,96 0, 287 X 1 31, 4 + 1,96 0, 287
30,83 X 1 31,96

Nh vy trng lng bnh qun ca mt bao go trong kho mt nm trong khong

30,83 n 31,96 kg.
*Kho 2:
Gi tr trung bnh:
x1 =

x f
f

i i

31 3 + 32 4 + ... + 35 3
= 33, 05 (kg)
20

Khong c lng:
( x1 Z / 2 X n ; x1 + Z / 2 X n )
S 2 =

(x x )
f
1i

fi

Vi:
=

(31 33, 05) 3 + ... + (35 33, 05)2 3

= 1, 6475
20
2

Ta c: X =
n2

S 2 N 2 n
1, 6475 1000 20

= 0, 284
n
N2
20
1000

1 = 0, 95 = 0, 05 Z / 2 = 1,96

Khong c lng:
x2 Z / 2 . X n 2 X 2 x2 + Z / 2 . X n 2
33, 05 1,96 0, 284 X 2 33, 05 + 1,96 0, 284
32.49 X 2 33, 6

Nh vy trng lng bnh qun ca mt bao go trong kho 2 nm trong khong

32,49 n 33,6 kg.

*Kho 3:
Gi tr trung bnh:
x3 =

x f
f

i i

31 3 + 32 5 + ... + 36 2
= 33, 73 (kg)
40

Khong c lng:
( x1 Z / 2 X n ; x1 + Z / 2 X n )
S 2 =

(x x )
f
2i

fi

Vi:
=

(31 33, 73) 3 + ... + (36 33, 73)2 2

= 1,8
40
2

Ta c: X =
n3

S 2 N 3 n
1,8 2000 40

= 0, 21
n
N3
40
2000

1 = 0, 95 = 0, 05 Z / 2 = 1,96

Khong c lng:
x3 Z / 2 . X n 3 X 3 x3 + Z / 2 . X n 3
33, 73 1,96 0, 21 X 3 33, 73 + 1,96 0, 21
33,31 X 3 34,137

Nh vy trng lng bnh qun ca mt bao go trong kho3 nm trong khong

33,31 n 34,137 kg.
c.c lng trng lng bnh qun mt bao bt m ca doanh nghip:
x1 N1 + x2 N 2 + x3 N3
N
31, 4 500 + 33, 05 1000 + 33, 73 2000
=
= 33, 2
3500
x=

Xn =
=

Si 2 Ni2 Ni ni
2

N
Ni
i =1 ni 1
3

0,84 5002 500 10

1,8 20002 2000 40

+
...
+

10 1 35002
500
40 1 35002
2000

= 1,866.103 + 6,93.103 + 0, 01477 = 0,1535

Khong c lng:
x Z / 2 . X n X x + Z / 2 . X n
33, 2 1, 96 0,1535 X 33, 2 + 1,96 0,1535
32, 9 X 33,5

Vy trng lng bnh qun ca mt bao bt m ca doanh nghip nm trong

khong gia 32,9 v 33,5 kg.
d.c lng t l s bao bt m c trng lng t 32 kg tr xung kho 3:
T l bao bt m c trng lng t 32 kg tr xung:
w3 =

8
= 0, 2
40

Sai s bnh qun chn mu:

w(1 w) N n

n 1
N

Fn =
=

0, 2(1 0, 2) 2000 40

= 0, 063
40 1
2000

Khong c lng:
w3 Z / 2 Fn p w3 + Z / 2 Fn
0, 2 1,96.0, 063 p 0, 2 + 1,96.0, 063
0, 076 p 0,323

Vy t l s bao bt m c trng lng t 32 kg trong kho 3 nm trong khong t

0,075 n 0,325.
e.c lng t l s bao bt m c trng lng t 32 kg tr xung ca doanh
nghip:
T l s bao bt m c trng lng t 32 kg tr xung ca tng kho:
9
= 0,9
10
7
Kho 2: w2 = = 0,35
20
8
Kho 3: w3 = = 0, 2
40

Kho 1: w1 =

Ca c 3 kho:
w =

9+8+7
= 0,34
10 + 20 + 40

Ta c:
Fn
=

wi (1 wi ) Ni 2 Ni ni
2

ni 1
N
Ni
i =1
3

0,9(1 0,9) 5002 500 10

0, 2(1 0, 2) 20002 2000 40

+
...
+

10 1
35002
500
40 1
35002
2000

= 2 104 + 9,57 104 + 1,31103 = 0, 05

Khong c lng:
w Z / 2 . Fn p w + Z / 2 . Fn
0, 34 1, 96 0, 05 p 0,34 + 1,96 0, 05
0, 242 p 0, 438

Nh vy, t l s bao bt m c trng lng t 32 kg tr xung ca doanh nghip

nm trong khong 0,242 n 0,438.
f.Xc nh s bao bt m cn iu tra c lng trng lng trung bnh mt bao
bt m ca doanh nghip vi di khoang tin cy l 0,6 kg v tin cy 99%:
Dx = 0, 6

p dng cng thc :

n=

4 Z2 / 2 2 Z2 / 2 2
=
Dx2
x2

Ta c: 2 = 2 + S 2
Vi:

N
=
N
2
i

0,84 500 + 1, 6475 1000 + 1,8 2000

3500

= 1, 62
S

(x x )
=
N
i

Ni

(31, 4 33, 2) 2 500 + ... + (33, 725 33, 2)2 2000

=
3500
= 0, 6267
2 = 1, 62 + 0, 6267 = 2, 2467

S bao bt m cn iu tra l:
n = 4

2, 582 2, 2467
= 166 (bao).
0, 62

g. Xc nh s bao bt m cn iu tra nu c lng t l s bao bt m c trng

lng t 32 kg tr xung ca doanh nghip vi Dx = 0, 05
Z / 2 = 2,58

p dng cng thc:

n = 4

Z2 / 2 p (1 p) Z2 / 2 p (1 p)
=
D p2
p2

2,582 0,34(1 0,34)

= 4
= 1577
0, 052

Vy s bao bt m cn iu tra l 1577 (bao).

Chng 7: KIM NH GI THUYT

Bi 7.1:
Gi thuyt:

H 0 : = 0 ( Vi 0 = 5mm )
H 1 = 0

x n = 4.9 2 + 5 4 + ... + 5.3 3 = 5.12

20
n
( x x) = (4.9 5.12) 2 + (5 5.12)
=
20
n

x=

i i
i

Ta c:
S

4 + ...(5.3 5.12)2 3

= 0.0146

Tiu chun kim nh:

t=

x 0
2

S
n 1

5.12 5
= 4.329
0.0146
19

Tra bng: Tn 1, 2 = T19,0.005 = 2.861

Ta thy: t > Tn 1, 2 Bc b H 0 chp nhn H1
Nh vy doanh nghip khng cam kt nh ha, chiu di trung bnh ca sn
phm khng ng bng 5mm vi = 0.01
Bi 7.2:
Gi thuyt: H 0 : 0 (vi 0 = 5000 gi)
H 1 = < 0

n x = 4800 2 + 4850 3 + ... + 5100 2 = 4940

20
n
( x x) n = 9400
S =
n
x=

Ta c:

i i
i

Tiu chun kim nh:

t=

x 0
2

S
n 1

4940 5000
= 2.6975
9400
19

Tra bng: Tn 1, = T19,0.01 = 2.539

Ta thy: t < Tn 1, Bc b H 0 chp nhn H1

Nh vy vi mc ngha = 0.01 tui th trung bnh ca sn phm nh hn 5000

gi, sn phm khng t ch tiu v cht lng.
Bi 7.3:
Gi thuyt: H 0 : y X = D0 (Vi D0 = 3 nghn ng/sp)
H1 : y X < D0

Ta c:
K 1
H
xi
5
0
yi 5
5
ki
5
K
H

4
8
5
0
2

5
2
5
8
6

4
9
5
1
2

5
1
5
5
4

5
3
5
6
3

4
7
5
0
3

5
2
5
6
4

5
0
5
2
2

2
1
4
6
4
8
2

xi
yi
ki

k=

2
2
5
1
5
3
2

2
3
5
4
5
4
0

k = 3.37

2
4
4
8
4
9
1

1
0
4
8
5
2
4
2
5
4
9
5
6
7

1
1
5
0
5
4
4

1
2
4
9
5
8
9
2
6
5
2
5
8
6

1
3
4
8
5
1
3

1
4
5
1
4
9
-2

1
5
4
9
5
7
8

2
7
4
5
4
8
3

1
6
4
9
5
4
5

1
7
5
0
5
6
6

1
8
5
1
5
1
0

2
8
4
9
5
2
3

2
9
5
2
5
4
2

3
0
5
1
5
5
4

1
9
5
3
5
0
-3

2
0
4
7
5
3
6

(ki = yi xi )

xi : Gi mua BBC
yi : Gi mua BBM
2

S k =

(k

k )2

= 7.03

Tiu chun kim nh:

Z=

k D0
2

S k
n 1

3.37 3
= 0.75
7.03
29

Tra bng ta thy: Z = Z 0.01 = 2.327 . Ta thy: Z < Z Chp nhn H 0 .

Nh vy, vi = 0.01 th chi ph thm cho bao b 1000d/sp th c th bn hng gi
cao hn gi c 3000d/sp.

Bi 7.4:

H 0 = X y D0 ( D0 = 0.05 nghn ng/sp)

Ga thuyt:

H1 : X y < D0

Ta c bng sau:
CN 1
2
3
xi
5. 6. 5.
1
0
8
yi
5. 5. 5.
0
8
5
ki
0. 0. 0.
1
2
3

4
5.
4
5.3

5
5.
8
5.9

0.
1

0.
1

6
5.
0
5.
1
0.
1

7
5.
2
5.
0
0.
2

( ki = xi yi )

8
5.
5
5.3
0.
2

9
5.
8
5.
5
0.
3

10 11
6. 6.3
1
5.9 6.
1
0. 0.
2
2

12
5.
2
5.
4
0.
2

13
5.
6
5.
2
0.
4

14 15
5.9 6.
2
5. 6.
7
0
0. 0.
2
2

16
6.0
5.7
0.3

xi : Chi ph lng theo phng php X

yi : Chi ph lng theo phng php Y

k=

k = 0.15625
n

(k

S k =

k )2

= 0.025

Tiu chun kim nh:

t=

k k0

Tn 1, = T15,0.01 = 2.262

Tra bng

t > Tn 1,

S k
n 1

0.15625 0.05
= 2.603
0.025
15

Chp nhn H 0

Nh vy vi = 0.01 phng php sn xut X c chi ph tin lng cao hn

phng php sn xut Y t 50 nghn ng/sp tr ln.

Bi 7.5: w A =

3
3
= 3.103 ; w B =
= 2.103
1000
1500

w A : t l sai hng ca my A
w B : t l sai hng ca my B

Ga thuyt:
H 0 : PB PA 0.01
H1 : PB PA < 0.01
w=

w A nA + w B nB 3 x103 1000 + 2 103 1500

=
= 2.103
nA + nB
1000 + 1500

Tiu chun kim nh:

t=

w B -w A
=
w(1 w) w(1 w)
+
nA
nB

0.002 0.003
= 0.548
0.002(1 0.002) 0.002(1 0.002)
+
1000
1500

Tra bng Z = Z 0.01 = 2.326 . Ta thy Z > Z Chp nhn H 0

Nh vy vi mc ngha = 0.01 , t l thnh phm ca my A ln hn my B t
1% tr ln.
Bi 7.6: Ga thuyt: H 0 = X y = D0 (Vi D0 = 0.1 nghn ng)
H1 : X y < D0

x n = 5.084
n
y n = 4.868
y=
n
( x x) n
S =
n
( y y) n
S =
n
i

x=

xi

xi

yi

yi

Ta c:

xi

= 0.0165

xi

yi

= 0.0174

yi

S =
2

S x2 nx + S y2 ny
nx + n y 2

= 0.0177

Tiu chun kim nh:

t=

( x y ) D0
2

S
S
+
nx n y

(5.084 4.868) 0.1

= 3.038
0.0177 0.0177
+
25
25

Tra bng: Tn + n 2; = T48;0.05 = 1.677 . Ta thy: t > Tn + n 2; Chp nhn H 0

Nh vy i vi = 0.05 , chi ph in nng cho mt sn phm ca my X ln hn
my Y t 100d/sp tr ln.
H 0 : 1 2 = D0 ( Vi D0 = 0.1kg )
Bi 7.7: Ga thuyt:
H1 : 1 2 > D0 Kim nh v mc hao ph nguyn vt
liu
x

Ta c:

x1 =

x n
n
1i

1i

1i

= 12.26 Mc hao ph bnh qun ca my 1

 x n = 12.307 Mc hao ph bnh qun ca my 2

n
( x x ) xn = 0.0234
S =
n
( x x ) n = 0.0173
S =
n
x2 =

2i

2i

2i

1i

1i

1i

2i

2i

2i

S n1 + S22 n2
S =
= 0.0206
n1 + n2 2
2

2
1

Tiu chun kim nh:

t=

( x1 x2 ) D0
S2 S2
+
n1 n2

(12.26 12.307) 0.1

= 3.548
0.0206 0.0206
+
20
30

Tra bng:
Tn1 + n2 2; = T48;0.05 = 1.677 . Ta thy t < Tn1 + n2 2; Chp nhn H 0

Nh vy = 0.05 , my 1 c mc hao ph nguyn liu nh hn my 2 t nht l

0.1kg nguyn liu hay my 1 tit kim nguyn liu hn my hn so vi my 2 t
0.1kg nguyn liu tr ln.
Bi 7.8: Dng phng php kim nh du:
Gi thuyt: H 0 : p + 0.5 ( p + l sn xut sn phm A c a thch hn sn
phm B)
H1 : p + < 0.5

Khch hng
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

im sp A
8
9
7
6
10
6
8
7
9
9
10
8

im sp B
9
8
7
4
9
5
7
5
7
9
8
6

Du(A-B)
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+

Tng s du n = 10 ; s du cng c = 9
Tra bng B(10;5)
p0 = p (k = 0) + p (k = 1) + p (k = 2) + ... + p( k = 9)
= 0.001 + 0, 0098 + 0.0439 + 0.1172 + 0.2051 + 0.2461 + 0.2051 + 0.1172 + 0.0439 + 0.0098
= 0.9991
p0 = 0.9991 > = 0.005
Chp nhn H 0

Nh vy vi = 0.05 sn phm A c a thch hn hoc bng sn phm B

Bi 7.9: Dng phng php kim nh du:
Gi thuyt:
H 0 : p + 0.5 ( p + l sc xut cch tr lng c c hi lng hn
cch tr lng mi)
H1 : p + > 0.5

CN
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

im cho cch tr lng

A
B
53
80
63
75
45
50
37
30
74
65
37
85
55
66
65
32
15

70
75
15

Du (A-B)
+
+
0

Tng s du n = 9, s du cng c = 2
Sc xut tch ly cc kh nng k ly t 2 n 9 du cng l
pn = p (k = 2) + p (k = 3) + ... + p (k = 9)
= 0.0703 + 0.1641 + 0.2461 + 0.1641 + 0.0703 + 0.0176 + 0.002
= 0.998
Ta thy pn > = 0.05 Chp nhn H 0

Nh vy vi = 0.05 ; cch tr lng c t c hi lng hn so vi cch tr lng

mi.
Bi 7.10: Ta c:
KH

im 53 63 4 37 7 37
cch
5
4
tr
lng
c
im 8 7 5 3 6 8
cch 0 5 0 0 5 5
tr
lng
mi
Du - - - + + Gi thuyt: H 0 : p + 0.05
hn cch tr lng mi)

5
5

6
6

6
5

1
0
32 1
5

1
1
3
0

1
2
6
7

13 1
4
9 4
0 5

1
5
7
5

1
6
5
6

1
7
8
0

1 19 20
8
59 7 25
0

8
0

7
5

2
5

4
6

8
0

6
6

8
5

9
0

7
0

1
5

7
0

5
6

- - - 0 + + + - + - - - +
( Vi p + l sc xut cch tr lng c c hi lng

H1 : p + > 0.5

Tng s du n= 19; tng s du cng c = 7

Sc xut tch ly cc kh nng k ly t 7 n 19 du cng l:
pn = p (k = 7) + p (k = 8) + ... + p (k = 19)
= 1 [p (k = 0) + p (k = 1) + ... + p (k = 8)]
= 1 [0 + 0 + 0.0003 + 0.0018 + 0.0074 + 0.0222 + 0.0518 + 0.0961 + 0.1442]
= 0.6765

Ta thy pn > = 0.05 chp nhn H 0

Nh vy = 0.05 cch tr lng c t c hi lng so vi cch tr lng mi.
Bi 7.11: Phng php kim nh khi bnh phng vi = 0.05
Cp gi thuyt:
H 0 : Quy m v t sut li nhun l c lp
H1 : Quy m v t sut li nhun c quan h ph thuc

30

Bng quy m l t sut li nhun ca 140 doanh nghip:

Quy m
T sut li nhun trn vn(%)
5->10
10->15
15->20
Va
20
60
6
(15,35)
(55,29)
(15,36)
Nh
5
30
19
(9,64)
(34,71)
(9,64)
Cng
25
90
25
(Vi n0ij =

nix xniy
n
k

Ta c

k =
k =1 j =1

Tra bng

Cng
86
54
140

l s trong ngoc)
(nij n0ij ) 2
n0ij

Vi k=2;m=3

(20 15.36) 2 (60 55.29)2

(19 9.64)2
+
+ ... +
= 19.46
15.36
55.29
9.64

2
X (2k 1)( m 1); = X 2;0.05
= 5.991

k > X (2k 1)( m 1);

bc b H 0 chp nhn H1

Nh vy vi = 0.05 quy m v t sut li nhun c quan h ph thuc.