Tesla Financial Model
Tesla Financial Model
Index:
1 #VALUE!
2 #VALUE!
3 #VALUE!
4 #VALUE!
5 #VALUE!
6 #VALUE!
7 #VALUE!
Note:
This Excel model is for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other reason.
Company Overview: Current Market Capitalization ( LTM basis )Historical Share Price Performance:
* Tesla design, develop, manufacture, sell & lease high- $ 450
performance fully electric vechicles & energy generation & Current Share Price ($ / Per share) $ 270.2
storage systems & also offers services related to our products. $ 400
Market Capitalization $ 845,757.3
* Sell products directly to customers through our websites, retail Total Debt $ 6,660.0 $ 350
locations.
Cash Balance $ 18,920.0 $ 300
* Tesla more emphasize performance, attractive styling and the
safety of our users and workforce in the design and manufacture of Enterprise Value $ 833,497.3 $ 250
our products and are continuing to develop full self-driving technology
for improved safety. $ 200
* Also, Tesla strive to lower the cost of ownership for our customers F2022E F2023E
EV / Revenue 51.2x 50.3x $ 150
through continuous efforts to reduce manufacturing costs and by
offering financial and other services tailored to our products. EV / EBITDA 75.7x 67.2x $ 100
* Tesla mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable
energy, engineering expertise, vertically integrated business model P/E 130.1x 121.7x $ 50
and focus on user experience differentiate us from other companies.
$0
---> Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in the state of Delaware on July
Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22
1, 2003.
* Its reporting segments are Automotive, Energy generation &
storage.
Financial performance Valuation Summary
55,616
48,118
Revenue from F2017A to F2026E ( $ EBITDA vs Net Profit Average $ 204.7 $ 343.8
MM's )
39,687
$ 206.9 $ 414.5
32,404
52 Week
27,950
22,771
Equity Analyst $ 270.5 $ 276.7
16,584
16,290
12,407
11,012
13,606
9,434
Comp's $ 124.3 $ 355.1
6,630
4,316
4,069
4,042
2,085
1,513
2,223
F2018A
F2019A
F2020A
F2021A
F2022A
F2023A
F2024A
F2025A
F2026A
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
F2
Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in the state of Delaware on July 1, 2003. EV Eco-system
* Tesla design, develop, manufacture, sell & lease high-performance fully electric vechicles & energy generation & storage Manufacture Sell or Lease
systems & also offers services related to our products.
* Sell products directly to customers through our websites, retail locations. Retail / Website
* Continues growth of customer-facing infrastructure through a global network of vehicle service centers, Mobile Service Design
technicians, body shops, Supercharger stations and Destination Chargers to accelerate the widespread adoption of our
products. Resale
* Tesla more emphasize performance, attractive styling and the safety of our users and workforce in the design and
manufacture of our products and are continuing to develop full self-driving technology for improved safety.
Services ( Insurance /
* Also, Tesla strive to lower the cost of ownership for our customers through continuous efforts to reduce manufacturing vechicles services )
costs and by offering financial and other services tailored to our products.
* Tesla mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, engineering expertise, vertically integrated
business model and focus on user experience differentiate us from other companies.
Energy generation & storag * Energy generation and storage segment includes the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy
generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives.
2 Solar Energy Offerings: We sell retrofit solar energy systems to customers and channel partners and also make them available through power purchase agreement (“PPA”) arrange
* We sell our Solar Roof, which combines premium glass roof tiles with energy generation, directly to customers, as well as through channel customers. We continue to improve our
installation capability and efficiency, including through collaboration with real estate developers and builders on new homes.
Q2 - 2022 Q&A
3 Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Live Case
Total Production 1.1 2.6 3.7 5.1 9.3 13.0 13.0 16.5 20.0 23.5
Cost per Vehicle 49.6 44.7 36.3 31.8 30.5 37.5 37.5 35.5 35.5 35.5
Revenue Direct Sales per Vehicle 82.8 72.0 55.7 56.4 52.0 51.5 51.5 52.0 52.5 53.0
Revenue Lease Sales per Vechicle - - - 30.5 27.4 26.5 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0
Best Case
Total Production +1.5 1.1 2.6 3.7 5.1 9.3 16.0 16.0 19.5 23.0 26.5
Cost per Vehicle ( 1.5 ) 49.6 44.7 36.3 31.8 30.5 34.5 34.5 32.5 32.5 32.5
Revenue Direct Sales per Vehicle +1.5 82.8 72.0 55.7 56.4 52.0 54.5 54.5 55.0 55.5 56.0
Revenue Lease Sales per Vechicle +1.5 - - - 30.5 27.4 29.5 29.5 30.0 30.5 31.0
Base Case
Total Production Lkh's 1.1 2.6 3.7 5.1 9.3 14.5 14.5 18.0 21.5 25.0
Cost per Vehicle 000's 49.6 44.7 36.3 31.8 30.5 36.0 36.0 34.0 34.0 34.0
Revenue Direct Sales per Vehicle 000's 82.8 72.0 55.7 56.4 52.0 53.0 53.0 53.5 54.0 54.5
Revenue Lease Sales per Vechicle 000's - - - 30.5 27.4 28.0 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.5
Worst Case
Total Production ( 1.5 ) 1.1 2.6 3.7 5.1 9.3 13.0 13.0 16.5 20.0 23.5
Cost per Vehicle +1.5 49.6 44.7 36.3 31.8 30.5 37.5 37.5 35.5 35.5 35.5
Revenue Direct Sales per Vehicle ( 1.5 ) 82.8 72.0 55.7 56.4 52.0 51.5 51.5 52.0 52.5 53.0
Revenue Lease Sales per Vechicle ( 1.5 ) - - - 30.5 27.4 26.5 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Revenue 11,759.0 21,461.0 24,578.0 31,536.0 53,823.0 74,281.6 77,850.1 101,597.8 128,839.9 160,903.7
Cost of revenue 9,536.0 17,419.0 20,509.0 24,906.0 40,217.0 57,991.6 61,265.8 73,648.0 89,152.8 105,287.4
Gross Profit 2,223.0 4,042.0 4,069.0 6,630.0 13,606.0 16,290.0 16,584.3 27,949.8 39,687.1 55,616.2
Gross profit ( % ) 18.9% 18.8% 16.6% 21.0% 25.3% 21.9% 21.3% 27.5% 30.8% 34.6%
Operating Expenses
Research and development 1,378.0 1,460.0 1,343.0 1,491.0 2,593.0 3,380.0 3,224.0 3,894.0 4,480.0 4,982.0
Selling, general and administrative 2,477.0 2,835.0 2,646.0 3,145.0 4,517.0 5,590.0 5,434.0 6,699.0 7,880.0 8,977.0
Restructuring and other - 135.0 149.0 - ( 27.0 ) 142.0 - - - -
Operating Expenses 3,855.0 4,430.0 4,138.0 4,636.0 7,083.0 9,112.0 8,658.0 10,593.0 12,360.0 13,959.0
Operating Profit ( 1,632.0 ) ( 388.0 ) ( 69.0 ) 1,994.0 6,523.0 7,178.0 7,926.3 17,356.8 27,327.1 41,657.2
Operating Margin ( % ) ( 13.9% ) ( 1.8% ) ( 0.3% ) 6.3% 12.1% 9.7% 10.2% 17.1% 21.2% 25.9%
Interest income 19.0 24.0 44.0 30.0 56.0 41.9 55.9 55.9 55.9 55.9
Interest expense ( 471.0 ) ( 663.0 ) ( 685.0 ) ( 748.0 ) ( 371.0 ) 460.9 319.4 296.2 286.1 284.5
Other income (expense), net ( 125.0 ) 22.0 45.0 ( 122.0 ) 135.0 84.0 - - - -
Non Operating Income / Expense ( 577.0 ) ( 617.0 ) ( 596.0 ) ( 840.0 ) ( 180.0 ) 586.8 375.3 352.1 342.1 340.4
Income (loss) before income taxes ( 2,209.0 ) ( 1,005.0 ) ( 665.0 ) 1,154.0 6,343.0 7,764.9 8,301.6 17,708.9 27,669.2 41,997.7
Provision for income taxes 32.0 58.0 110.0 292.0 699.0 1,164.7 1,245.2 2,656.3 4,150.4 6,299.6
Net income (loss) ( 2,241.0 ) ( 1,063.0 ) ( 775.0 ) 862.0 5,644.0 6,600.1 7,056.3 15,052.6 23,518.8 35,698.0
NI attributable to noncontrolling interes ( 279.0 ) ( 87.0 ) 87.0 141.0 125.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0
Net income / loss attributable to CS ( 1,962.0 ) ( 976.0 ) ( 862.0 ) 721.0 5,519.0 6,500.1 6,951.3 14,942.6 23,403.8 35,578.0
Less: Buy-out of noncontrolling interest - - 8.0 31.0 ( 5.0 ) - - - - -
Net income / loss attributable to CS ( 1,962.0 ) ( 976.0 ) ( 870.0 ) 690.0 5,524.0 6,500.1 6,951.3 14,942.6 23,403.8 35,578.0
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Assets:
Current assets
Cash & cash equivalents, restricted cas 3,965.0 4,277.0 6,783.0 19,901.0 18,144.0 26,167.3 30,908.2 49,587.7 71,553.4 105,330.5
Short-term marketable securities - - - - 131.0 131.0 131.0 131.0 131.0 131.0
Accounts receivable, net 515.4 949.0 1,324.0 1,886.0 1,913.0 2,747.4 2,879.4 3,608.7 4,588.8 5,730.8
Inventory 2,263.5 3,113.0 3,552.0 4,101.0 5,757.0 8,420.7 8,896.1 10,061.2 12,212.7 14,422.9
Prepaid expenses and other current ass 268.4 366.0 444.0 829.0 1,155.0 1,424.3 1,384.6 1,647.3 1,943.0 2,213.5
Total current assets 7,012.2 8,705.0 12,103.0 26,717.0 27,100.0 38,890.7 44,199.2 65,035.9 90,428.9 127,828.8
Operating lease vehicles, net 4,116.6 2,090.0 2,447.0 3,091.0 4,511.0 4,425.8 3,867.8 3,543.6 4,503.9 5,079.5
Solar energy systems, net 6,347.5 6,271.0 6,138.0 5,979.0 5,765.0 5,534.5 5,323.1 5,157.7 5,015.1 4,900.3
Property, plant and equipment, net 10,027.5 11,330.0 10,396.0 12,747.0 18,884.0 22,573.2 26,088.7 31,253.5 37,738.9 45,502.8
Operating lease right-of-use assets - - 1,218.0 1,558.0 2,016.0 2,371.1 2,702.3 3,249.8 3,918.4 4,697.4
Digital assets, net - - - - 1,260.0 77.8 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Intangible assets, net 361.5 282.0 339.0 313.0 257.0 208.0 165.0 137.0 109.0 81.0
Goodwill 60.2 68.0 198.0 207.0 200.0 204.0 204.0 204.0 204.0 204.0
Other non-current assets 729.8 994.0 1,470.0 1,536.0 2,138.0 2,952.0 2,952.0 2,952.0 2,952.0 2,952.0
Total assets 28,655.4 29,740.0 34,309.0 52,148.0 62,131.0 77,237.0 85,535.5 111,533.4 144,870.2 191,245.7
Liabilities:
Current liabilities
Accounts payable 2,390.3 3,405.0 3,771.0 6,051.0 10,025.0 14,696.5 15,526.3 18,814.4 22,837.8 26,970.9
Accrued liabilities and other 2,618.7 2,597.0 3,222.0 3,855.0 5,719.0 8,322.6 8,720.7 10,628.4 12,776.0 14,943.4
Deferred revenue 1,015.3 630.0 1,163.0 1,458.0 1,447.0 2,228.4 2,335.5 4,571.9 5,797.8 7,240.7
Customer deposits 853.9 793.0 726.0 752.0 925.0 1,857.0 1,946.3 3,555.9 4,509.4 5,631.6
Current portion of debt and finance lea 796.5 2,568.0 1,785.0 2,132.0 1,589.0 1,531.0 1,371.6 1,212.3 1,052.9 893.5
Total current liabilities 7,674.7 9,993.0 10,667.0 14,248.0 19,705.0 28,635.6 29,900.3 38,782.9 46,973.9 55,680.1
Debt and finance leases, net of current p 9,418.3 9,404.0 11,634.0 9,556.0 5,245.0 2,846.0 2,667.0 2,488.1 2,309.1 2,130.2
Deferred revenue, net of current portion 1,177.8 991.0 1,207.0 1,284.0 2,052.0 2,971.3 3,114.0 5,079.9 6,442.0 8,045.2
Other long-term liabilities 4,752.2 3,039.0 2,691.0 3,330.0 3,546.0 3,443.1 3,362.3 3,543.8 3,893.4 4,440.4
Total liabilities 23,023.0 23,427.0 26,199.0 28,418.0 30,548.0 37,895.9 39,043.7 49,894.7 59,618.4 70,295.9
Redeemable noncontrolling interests in s 397.7 556.0 643.0 604.0 568.0 568.0 568.0 568.0 568.0 568.0
Convertible senior notes (Note 11) 0.1 - - 51.0 - -- -- -- -- --
Common stock 0.2 - 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Additional paid-in capital 9,178.0 10,249.0 12,736.0 27,260.0 29,803.0 30,961.0 31,055.3 31,149.7 31,244.0 31,244.0
Accumulated other comprehensive inco 33.3 ( 8.0 ) ( 36.0 ) 363.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit) ( 4,974.3 ) ( 5,318.0 ) ( 6,083.0 ) ( 5,399.0 ) 331.0 6,831.1 13,782.5 28,725.1 52,128.8 87,706.9
Total stockholders' equity 4,237.2 4,923.0 6,618.0 22,225.0 30,189.0 37,847.1 44,892.8 59,929.7 83,427.8 119,005.9
Noncontrolling interests in subsidiaries 997.3 834.0 849.0 850.0 826.0 926.0 1,031.0 1,141.0 1,256.0 1,376.0
Total liabilities and equity 28,655.4 29,740.0 34,309.0 52,148.0 62,131.0 77,237.0 85,535.5 111,533.4 144,870.2 191,245.7
Check 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Deliveries 103,020.0 244,920.0 357,998.5 464,412.3 876,122.3 1,241,500.0 1,241,500.0 1,575,750.0 1,920,000.0 2,256,000.0
Operating Lease - - - 34,507.7 59,827.7 45,500.0 45,500.0 57,750.0 60,000.0 70,500.0
Total Deliveries 103,020.0 244,920.0 357,998.5 498,920.0 935,950.0 ### ### ### ### ###
Total production 107,477.0 257,910.0 368,101.0 509,737.0 930,422.0 1,300,000.0 1,300,000.0 1,650,000.0 2,000,000.0 2,350,000.0
Energy generation and storageGrowth (%) 39.3% ( 1.5% ) 30.2% 39.9% 30.0% 30.0% 33.0% 36.0% 39.0%
Services and other Growth (%) 39.0% 60.0% 3.6% 64.9% 45.0% 45.0% 48.0% 51.0% 54.0%
Revenue per vehicle ( Direct Sale ) 82.8 72.0 55.7 56.4 52.0 51.5 51.5 52.0 52.5 53.0
Revenue per vehicle ( Lease ) - - - 30.5 27.4 26.5 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0
Segmented Revenue:
Automotive sales 8,535.0 17,632.0 19,952.0 26,184.0 45,590.0 63,937.3 63,937.3 81,939.0 100,800.0 119,568.0
Automotive leasing 1,107.0 883.0 869.0 1,052.0 1,642.0 1,205.8 1,205.8 1,559.3 1,650.0 1,974.0
Total automotive revenues 9,642.0 18,515.0 20,821.0 27,236.0 47,232.0 65,143.0 65,143.0 83,498.3 102,450.0 121,542.0
Energy generation and storage 1,116.0 1,555.0 1,531.0 1,994.0 2,789.0 3,625.7 4,713.4 6,268.8 8,525.6 11,850.6
Services and other 1,001.0 1,391.0 2,226.0 2,306.0 3,802.0 5,512.9 7,993.7 11,830.7 17,864.3 27,511.1
Total revenues 11,759.0 21,461.0 24,578.0 31,536.0 53,823.0 74,281.6 77,850.1 101,597.8 128,839.9 160,903.7
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Total Automotive Cost 7,433.0 14,174.0 16,398.0 20,259.0 33,393.0 48,750.0 48,750.0 58,575.0 71,000.0 83,425.0
- Depreciation, Amortization & Impairme 1,636.0 1,901.0 2,154.0 2,322.0 2,911.0 3,833.8 4,480.6 5,414.3 5,076.9 6,460.4
- Stock Based compensation 467.0 749.0 898.0 1,734.0 2,121.0 913.0 94.3 94.3 94.3
Cost of Manufacturing Vehicles 5,330.0 11,524.0 13,346.0 16,203.0 28,361.0 44,003.2 44,175.0 53,066.4 65,828.8 76,964.6
Total production 107,477.0 257,910.0 368,101.0 509,737.0 930,422.0 1,300,000.0 1,300,000.0 1,650,000.0 2,000,000.0 2,350,000.0
Energy generation and storageGrowth (%) 56.2% ( 1.8% ) 47.4% 47.7% 36.0% 36.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0%
Services and other Growth (%) 53.0% 47.3% ( 3.6% ) 46.2% 35.0% 35.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Cost per Vehicle 49.6 44.7 36.3 31.8 30.5 37.5 37.5 35.5 35.5 35.5
Cost of revenue
###
### Total Automotive Cost 7,433.0 14,174.0 16,398.0 20,259.0 33,393.0 48,750.0 48,750.0 58,575.0 71,000.0 83,425.0
### - Depreciation, Amortization & Impairm 1,636.0 1,901.0 2,154.0 2,322.0 2,911.0 3,833.8 4,480.6 5,414.3 5,076.9 6,460.4
- Stock Based compensation 467.0 749.0 898.0 1,734.0 2,121.0 913.0 94.3 94.3 94.3
### Cost of Manufacturing Vehicles 5,330.0 11,524.0 13,346.0 16,203.0 28,361.0 44,003.2 44,175.0 53,066.4 65,828.8 76,964.6
### Energy generation and storage 874.0 1,365.0 1,341.0 1,976.0 2,918.0 3,968.5 5,397.1 6,530.5 7,901.9 9,561.3
### Services and other 1,229.0 1,880.0 2,770.0 2,671.0 3,906.0 5,273.1 7,118.7 8,542.4 10,250.9 12,301.1
### Cost of revenue 9,536.0 17,419.0 20,509.0 24,906.0 40,217.0 57,991.6 61,265.8 73,648.0 89,152.8 105,287.4
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Average R&D Exp on per vehicle 12.8 5.7 3.6 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1
Average SG&A Exp on per vehicle 23.0 11.0 7.2 6.2 4.9 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8
Research and development 1,378.0 1,460.0 1,343.0 1,491.0 2,593.0 3,380.0 3,224.0 3,894.0 4,480.0 4,982.0
Selling, general and administrative 2,477.0 2,835.0 2,646.0 3,145.0 4,517.0 5,590.0 5,434.0 6,699.0 7,880.0 8,977.0
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Days in Year 365.0 365.0 365.0 366.0 365.0 365.0 365.0 366.0 365.0 365.0
Revenue 11,759.0 21,461.0 24,578.0 31,536.0 53,823.0 74,281.6 77,850.1 101,597.8 128,839.9 160,903.7
Cost of Revenue 9,536.0 17,419.0 20,509.0 24,906.0 40,217.0 57,991.6 61,265.8 73,648.0 89,152.8 105,287.4
Selling, general and administrative 2,477.0 2,835.0 2,646.0 3,145.0 4,517.0 5,590.0 5,434.0 6,699.0 7,880.0 8,977.0
Days:
Current Assets:
Accounts receivable, net 16.0 16.1 19.7 21.9 13.0 13.5 13.5 13.0 13.0 13.0
Inventory 86.6 65.2 63.2 60.3 52.2 53.0 53.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Prepaid expenses and other current ass 39.5 47.1 61.2 96.5 93.3 93.0 93.0 90.0 90.0 90.0
Current Liabilities:
Accounts payable 91.5 71.3 67.1 88.9 91.0 92.5 92.5 93.5 93.5 93.5
Accrued liabilities and other 100.2 54.4 53.3 52.4 48.6 49.5 49.5 51.0 51.0 51.0
Operating lease right-of-use liabilities, current portion
Deferred revenue 8.6% 2.9% 4.7% 4.6% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Customer deposits 7.3% 3.7% 3.0% 2.4% 1.7% 2.5% 2.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Non-Current Liabilities:
Deferred revenue 10.0% 4.6% 4.9% 4.1% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
USD in Million's
Current Assets:
Accounts receivable, net 515.4 949.0 1,324.0 1,886.0 1,913.0 2,747.4 2,879.4 3,608.7 4,588.8 5,730.8
Inventory 2,263.5 3,113.0 3,552.0 4,101.0 5,757.0 8,420.7 8,896.1 10,061.2 12,212.7 14,422.9
Prepaid expenses and other current ass 268.4 366.0 444.0 829.0 1,155.0 1,424.3 1,384.6 1,647.3 1,943.0 2,213.5
Current Liabilities:
Accounts payable 2,390.3 3,405.0 3,771.0 6,051.0 10,025.0 14,696.5 15,526.3 18,814.4 22,837.8 26,970.9
Accrued liabilities and other 2,618.7 2,597.0 2,994.0 3,569.0 5,351.0 7,864.6 8,308.7 10,262.4 12,457.0 14,711.4
Operating lease right-of-use liabilities, - - 228.0 286.0 368.0 458.0 412.0 366.0 319.0 232.0
Deferred revenue 1,015.3 630.0 1,163.0 1,458.0 1,447.0 2,228.4 2,335.5 4,571.9 5,797.8 7,240.7
Customer deposits 853.9 793.0 726.0 752.0 925.0 1,857.0 1,946.3 3,555.9 4,509.4 5,631.6
Non-Current Liabilities:
Deferred revenue 1,177.8 991.0 1,207.0 1,284.0 2,052.0 2,971.3 3,114.0 5,079.9 6,442.0 8,045.2
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Capex - ( 2,302.3 ) 305.4 684.0 1,747.0 1,891.3 1,891.3 2,833.5 3,485.7 4,134.8
Automotive sales 8,535.0 17,632.0 19,952.0 26,184.0 45,590.0 63,937.3 63,937.3 81,939.0 100,800.0 119,568.0
Capex % of Sales - ( 13.1% ) 1.5% 2.6% 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
New 4.0
F2022E 472.8 472.8 472.8 472.8 472.8
F2023E 472.8 472.8 472.8 472.8
F2024E 708.4 708.4 708.4
F2025E 871.4 871.4
F2026E 1,033.7
Total Depreciation 1,976.5 2,449.3 3,157.7 2,525.5 3,559.2
Opening Balance 4,116.6 2,090.0 2,447.0 3,091.0 4,511.0 4,425.8 3,867.8 3,543.6 4,503.9
+ Capex ( 2,302.3 ) 305.4 684.0 1,747.0 1,891.3 1,891.3 2,833.5 3,485.7 4,134.8
- Depreciation / Sale 275.7 51.6 ( 40.0 ) ( 327.0 ) ( 1,976.5 ) ( 2,449.3 ) ( 3,157.7 ) ( 2,525.5 ) ( 3,559.2 )
Closing Balance 4,116.6 2,090.0 2,447.0 3,091.0 4,511.0 4,425.8 3,867.8 3,543.6 4,503.9 5,079.5
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Capex 445.3 224.0 48.0 25.0 59.5 81.0 130.6 158.0 191.2
Finance Lease - 30.0 29.0 27.0 23.6 20.3 16.9 13.5 10.1
Energy generation and storage 1,365.0 1,341.0 1,976.0 2,918.0 3,968.5 5,397.1 6,530.5 7,901.9 9,561.3
Capex % of Sales 32.6% 16.7% 2.4% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
New 35.0
F2022E 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
F2023E 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
F2024E 3.7 3.7 3.7
F2025E 4.5 4.5
F2026E 5.5
Total Depreciation 286.7 289.0 292.7 297.2 302.7
Opening Balance 5,864.6 6,034.0 6,061.0 5,906.0 5,699.0 5,471.9 5,263.9 5,101.8 4,962.6
+ Finance Lease - 30.0 29.0 27.0 23.6 20.3 16.9 13.5 10.1
+ Capex / Sale 445.3 224.0 48.0 25.0 59.5 81.0 130.6 158.0 191.2
- Depreciation ( 275.9 ) ( 227.0 ) ( 232.0 ) ( 232.0 ) ( 286.7 ) ( 289.0 ) ( 292.7 ) ( 297.2 ) ( 302.7 )
Closing Balance 5,864.6 6,034.0 6,061.0 5,906.0 5,726.0 5,495.5 5,284.1 5,118.7 4,976.1 4,861.3
Solar energy systems under construction 243.8 68.0 18.0 28.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0
Solar energy systems pending interconn 239.1 169.0 59.0 45.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0
Solar energy systems, net 6,347.5 6,271.0 6,138.0 5,979.0 5,765.0 5,534.5 5,323.1 5,157.7 5,015.1 4,900.3
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Capex / Sales - 2,277.7 ( 1,499.0 ) 2,269.0 6,215.0 5,211.4 5,211.4 7,097.4 8,708.3 10,331.1
Finance Lease - - 1,600.0 1,465.0 1,536.0 1,344.0 1,152.0 960.0 768.0 576.0
Total automotive revenues 9,642.0 18,515.0 20,821.0 27,236.0 47,232.0 65,143.0 65,143.0 83,498.3 102,450.0 121,542.0
Capex % of Sales - 12.3% ( 7.2% ) 8.3% 13.2% 8.0% 8.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
New 30.0
F2022E 173.7 173.7 173.7 173.7 173.7
F2023E 173.7 173.7 173.7 173.7
F2024E 236.6 236.6 236.6
F2025E 290.3 290.3
F2026E 344.4
Total Depreciation 1,330.2 1,504.0 1,740.5 2,030.8 2,375.2
Opening Balance 10,027.5 11,330.0 10,396.0 12,747.0 17,348.0 21,229.2 24,936.7 30,293.5 36,970.9
+ Finance Lease - 1,600.0 1,465.0 1,536.0 1,344.0 1,152.0 960.0 768.0 576.0
+ Capex / Sales 2,277.7 ( 1,499.0 ) 2,269.0 6,215.0 5,211.4 5,211.4 7,097.4 8,708.3 10,331.1
- Depreciation ( 975.2 ) ( 1,035.0 ) ( 1,383.0 ) ( 1,614.0 ) ( 1,330.2 ) ( 1,504.0 ) ( 1,740.5 ) ( 2,030.8 ) ( 2,375.2 )
Closing Balance 10,027.5 11,330.0 10,396.0 12,747.0 18,884.0 22,573.2 26,088.7 31,253.5 37,738.9 45,502.8
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Amortization of Lease:
Old 6.0 336.0 336.0 336.0 336.0 336.0
New 12.0
F2022E 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.8
F2023E 66.4 66.4 66.4 66.4
F2024E 92.1 92.1 92.1
F2025E 111.4 111.4
F2026E 131.6
Total Principal Payments 398.8 465.2 557.3 668.7 800.3
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Other noncurrent liabilities 4,752.2 3,039.0 1,735.0 2,076.0 1,875.0 1,875.0 1,875.0 1,875.0 1,875.0 1,875.0
Operating Lease Liability (Long-Term) - - 956.0 1,254.0 1,671.0 1,568.1 1,487.3 1,668.8 2,018.4 2,565.4
Other Long term Liabilities 4,752.2 3,039.0 2,691.0 3,330.0 3,546.0 3,443.1 3,362.3 3,543.8 3,893.4 4,440.4
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Intangible Assets
Gross Closing Balance 401.5 348.0 383.0 364.0 308.0 257.0 208.0 165.0 137.0 109.0
- Amortization Expense ( 40.0 ) ( 66.0 ) ( 44.0 ) ( 51.0 ) ( 51.0 ) ( 49.0 ) ( 43.0 ) ( 28.0 ) ( 28.0 ) ( 28.0 )
Closing intangible assets 361.5 282.0 339.0 313.0 257.0 208.0 165.0 137.0 109.0 81.0
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Goodwill:
Gross Closing Balance 60.2 68.0 198.0 207.0 200.0 204.0 204.0 204.0 204.0
- Impairments 7.8 130.0 9.0 ( 7.0 ) 4.0 - - - -
Closing Goodwill Balance 60.2 68.0 198.0 207.0 200.0 204.0 204.0 204.0 204.0 204.0
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Gross Closing Balance 729.8 994.0 1,470.0 1,536.0 2,138.0 2,952.0 2,952.0 2,952.0 2,952.0
+ / Current year Adjustments 264.2 476.0 66.0 602.0 814.0 - - - -
Closing Balance 729.8 994.0 1,470.0 1,536.0 2,138.0 2,952.0 2,952.0 2,952.0 2,952.0 2,952.0
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Current Maturity
Current Maturity 796.5 2,568.0 1,785.0 2,132.0 1,589.0 1,531.0 1,371.6 1,212.3 1,052.9 893.5
Total Amortization of Finance Lease for Current 58.0 159.4 159.4 159.4 159.4
Short term debt + Lease ( Interest) 84.5 81.3 72.4 63.4 54.5
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Non-Current Debt & Lease 9,418.3 9,404.0 11,634.0 9,556.0 5,245.0 2,846.0 2,667.0 2,488.1 2,309.1 2,130.2
Interest Expense 5.5% 235.4 113.0 108.7 104.3 100.0
Total Amortization of Finance Lease for Non - Current 188.0 100.4 100.4 100.4 100.4
Total Amortization on Finance Lease 246.0 259.7 259.7 259.7 259.7
Long term debt + Lease ( Interest) 292.9 159.6 149.5 139.3 129.1
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Retained Earnings:
Non-controlling interest:
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Redeemable noncontrolling interests in s 397.7 556.0 643.0 604.0 568.0 568.0 568.0 568.0 568.0 568.0
Common stock 0.2 - 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Accumulated other comprehensive inco 33.3 ( 8.0 ) ( 36.0 ) 363.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0
Historical Forecasted
F2017A F2018A F2019A F2020A F2021A F2022E F2023E F2024E F2025E F2026E
Computataion of EBITDA:
Operating Profit ( 1,632.0 ) ( 388.0 ) ( 69.0 ) 1,994.0 6,523.0 7,178.0 7,926.3 17,356.8 27,327.1 41,657.2
+ Depreciation, Amortization & Impairments 1,636.0 1,901.0 2,154.0 2,322.0 2,911.0 3,833.8 4,480.6 5,414.3 5,076.9 6,460.4
EBITDA 4.0 1,513.0 2,085.0 4,316.0 9,434.0 11,011.8 12,406.9 22,771.1 32,404.0 48,117.6
Computataion of FCFF:
Operating Profit ( 1,632.0 ) ( 388.0 ) ( 69.0 ) 1,994.0 6,523.0 7,178.0 7,926.3 17,356.8 27,327.1 41,657.2
- Tax rate - - - 299.1 978.4 1,076.7 1,188.9 2,603.5 4,099.1 6,248.6
NOPAT ### ( 388.0 ) ( 69.0 ) 1,694.9 5,544.6 6,101.3 6,737.4 14,753.3 23,228.0 35,408.7
( + ) Non-Cash Expenses
Depreciation, Amortization & Impairment 1,636.0 1,901.0 2,154.0 2,322.0 2,911.0 3,833.8 4,480.6 5,414.3 5,076.9 6,460.4
Stock-based compensation 467.0 749.0 898.0 1,734.0 2,121.0 913.0 94.3 94.3 94.3 -
Non-cash interest & other operating activit 135.0 49.0 186.0 228.0 245.0 ( 814.0 ) - - - -
( + / - ) Working Capital
Accounts receivable ( 25.0 ) ( 497.0 ) ( 367.0 ) ( 652.0 ) ( 130.0 ) ( 834.4 ) ( 132.0 ) ( 729.3 ) ( 980.2 ) ( 1,142.0 )
Inventory ( 179.0 ) ( 1,023.0 ) ( 429.0 ) ( 422.0 ) ( 1,709.0 ) ( 2,663.7 ) ( 475.4 ) ( 1,165.1 ) ( 2,151.5 ) ( 2,210.2 )
Prepaid expenses & other current assets ( 72.0 ) ( 82.0 ) ( 288.0 ) ( 251.0 ) ( 271.0 ) ( 269.3 ) 39.7 ( 262.7 ) ( 295.7 ) ( 270.5 )
Accounts payable & accrued liabilities 388.0 1,723.0 682.0 2,102.0 4,578.0 7,185.1 1,273.8 5,241.9 6,217.9 6,387.5
Deferred revenue 469.0 406.0 801.0 321.0 793.0 1,700.7 249.8 4,202.3 2,588.0 3,046.1
Customer deposits 170.0 ( 96.0 ) ( 58.0 ) 7.0 186.0 932.0 89.2 1,609.7 953.5 1,122.2
Operating Cash Flows 1,357.0 2,742.0 3,510.0 7,083.9 14,268.6 16,084.5 12,357.5 29,158.7 34,731.2 48,802.2
( - ) Capex ( 3,415.0 ) ( 2,101.0 ) ( 1,327.0 ) ( 3,157.0 ) ( 6,482.0 ) ( 5,211.4 ) ( 5,211.4 ) ( 7,097.4 ) ( 8,708.3 ) ###
Free Cash Flows to Firm ### 641.0 2,183.0 3,926.9 7,786.5 10,873.1 7,146.0 22,061.4 26,023.0 38,471.1
Total Mkt. Val. Debt / Country Levered Unlevered Target Capital Structure:
Name Debt Equity EquityEffective TR Beta (5yr's) Beta F2021A F2022E
Tesla 6,660.0 863,620.0 0.0x 21.0% 2.2x 2.2x Debt portion 0.0x 0.1x
Toyota Motor Corporation ### 201,660.0 144.2x 23.2% 0.6x 0.0x Equity portion 1.0x 0.9x
BYD Company Limited 31,570.0 101,420.0 0.3x 25.0% 0.5x 0.4x Debt / Equity 0.0x 0.1x
Ford Motor Company 130,230.0 61,270.0 2.1x 21.0% 1.3x 0.5x
Mercedes-Benz Group AG 116,020.0 58,840.0 2.0x 15.8% 1.4x 0.5x Cost of Debt:
General Motors Company 112,110.0 57,610.0 1.9x 21.0% 1.3x 0.5x Interest rate 5.5%
Volkswagen 207,750.0 83,830.0 2.5x 15.8% 1.5x 0.5x Effective Tax rate as per Company 10-k 15.0%
NIO Inc. 22,090.0 32,010.0 0.7x 25.0% 2.0x 1.3x Kd 4.7%
Li Auto Inc. 10,710.0 29,160.0 0.4x 25.0% 0.3x 0.2x
Rivian Automotive, Inc. 1,660.0 29,420.0 0.1x 21.0% 0.0x 0.0x Cost of Equity:
Lucid Group, Inc. 2,240.0 27,050.0 0.1x 21.0% 0.0x 0.0x Risk free rate 3.2%
XPeng Inc. - 16,050.0 0.0x 25.0% 0.0x 0.0x Equity risk premium 5.6%
Average 0.4x Country risk premium -
Levered Beta 0.4x
Ke 5.4%
Data Source:
https://finance.yahoo.com/ WACC as per Levered Beta 5.3%
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/effective-corporate-tax-rate-by-country
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us
https://www.statista.com/statistics/664840/average-market-risk-premium-usa/#:~:text=The%20average%20market%20risk%20premium,and%205.7%20percent%20since%202011.
Time Periods
Valuation Date 30-Jun-22
### 31-Dec-22 31-Dec-23 31-Dec-24 31-Dec-25 31-Dec-26
Dates for NPV Calculation 30-Jun-22
### 30-Sep-22 1-Jul-23 1-Jul-24 1-Jul-25 1-Jul-26
Year Fraction 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
EBITDA 11,011.8 12,406.9 22,771.1 32,404.0 48,117.6
Free Cash Flows to Firm 10,873.1 7,146.0 22,061.4 26,023.0 38,471.1
Terminal Cash Flows:
Exist Method 21.0x ###
Perpetuity Method 623,726.4
Growth rate 1.7%
WACC 8.0%
Average Terminal Value 817,098.4
Free Cash Flows to Firm ###
- 10,873.1 7,146.0 22,061.4 26,023.0 38,471.1
Terminal Value ###
- - - - - 817,098.4
Free Cash Flows ###
- 10,873.1 7,146.0 22,061.4 26,023.0 855,569.5
Implied Equity Per Share Calculation: Target Price Range as per DCF Analysis:
Discount rate
Terminal Value / EBITDA Multiple
* Sensitivity Table is hardcorded. While changing any multiple pls make change table to see effect
Company Names Mrkt Cap Net Debt Enterprise Value EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA EV / Net Income Mrkt Cap / NI Markt Cap / FCFF
Toyota Motor Corporation 199,417.2 22,380,000.0 22,579,417.2 0.7x 5.5x 8.4x 0.1x -
BYD Company Limited 80,081.0 (14,550.0) 65,531.0 0.2x 3.0x 11.9x 14.6x 2.1x
Ford Motor Company 59,882.0 102,010.0 161,892.0 1.1x 9.3x 13.9x 5.1x 4.4x
Mercedes-Benz Group AG 61,610.6 100,880.0 162,490.6 1.2x 8.3x 15.0x 5.7x 13.7x
General Motors Company 56,166.2 90,580.0 146,746.2 1.1x 8.9x 19.0x 7.3x -
Volkswagen 91,432.5 164,930.0 256,362.5 1.0x 9.0x 15.1x 5.4x 7.1x
NIO Inc. 29,609.1 (27,320.0) 2,289.1 0.1x - - - -
Li Auto Inc. 25,684.8 (39,730.0) (14,045.2) - 20.2x 39.6x - 8.1x
Rivian Automotive, Inc. 28,330.6 (13,260.0) 15,070.6 29.3x - - - -
Lucid Group, Inc. 25,468.8 (2,050.0) 23,418.8 128.9x - - - -
XPeng Inc. 14,308.8 (2,148.8) 12,160.0 - - - - -
Revenue 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 82.5% 14.5% 28.3% 70.7%
Cost of revenue 81.1% 81.2% 83.4% 79.0% 74.7% 82.7% 17.7% 21.4% 61.5%
Gross Profit 18.9% 18.8% 16.6% 21.0% 25.3% 81.8% 0.7% 62.9% 105.2%
Operating Expenses
Research and development 11.7% 6.8% 5.5% 4.7% 4.8% 6.0% ( 8.0% ) 11.0% 73.9%
Selling, general and administrative 21.1% 13.2% 10.8% 10.0% 8.4% 14.5% ( 6.7% ) 18.9% 43.6%
Restructuring and other - 0.6% 0.6% - ( 0.1% ) 10.4% ( 100.0% )
Operating Expenses 32.8% 20.6% 16.8% 14.7% 13.2% 14.9% ( 6.6% ) 12.0% 52.8%
Operating Profit ( 13.9% ) ( 1.8% ) ( 0.3% ) 6.3% 12.1% ( 76.2% ) ( 82.2% ) ( 2989.9% ) 227.1%
Interest income 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 26.3% 83.3% ( 31.8% ) 86.7%
Interest expense ( 4.0% ) ( 3.1% ) ( 2.8% ) ( 2.4% ) ( 0.7% ) 40.8% 3.3% 9.2% ( 50.4% )
Other income (expense), net ( 1.1% ) 0.1% 0.2% ( 0.4% ) 0.3% ( 117.6% ) 104.5% ( 371.1% ) ( 210.7% )
Non Operating Income / Expense ( 4.9% ) ( 2.9% ) ( 2.4% ) ( 2.7% ) ( 0.3% ) 6.9% ( 3.4% ) 40.9% ( 78.6% )
Income (loss) before income taxes ( 18.8% ) ( 4.7% ) ( 2.7% ) 3.7% 11.8% ( 54.5% ) ( 33.8% ) ( 273.5% ) 449.7%
Provision for income taxes 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.9% 1.3% 81.3% 89.7% 165.5% 139.4%
Net income (loss) ( 19.1% ) ( 5.0% ) ( 3.2% ) 2.7% 10.5% ( 52.6% ) ( 27.1% ) ( 211.2% ) 554.8%
NI attributable to noncontrolling interests ( 2.4% ) ( 0.4% ) 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% ( 68.8% ) ( 200.0% ) 62.1% ( 11.3% )
Net income / loss attributable to CS ( 16.7% ) ( 4.5% ) ( 3.5% ) 2.3% 10.3% ( 50.3% ) ( 11.7% ) ( 183.6% ) 665.5%
Less: Buy-out of noncontrolling interest - - 0.0% 0.1% ( 0.0% ) 287.5% ( 116.1% )
Net income / loss attributable to CS ( 16.7% ) ( 4.5% ) ( 3.5% ) 2.2% 10.3% ( 50.3% ) ( 10.9% ) ( 179.3% ) 700.6%
Segmented Revenue:
Automotive sales 72.6% 82.2% 81.2% 83.0% 84.7% 106.6% 13.2% 31.2% 74.1%
Automotive leasing 9.4% 4.1% 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% ( 20.2% ) ( 1.6% ) 21.1% 56.1%
Total automotive revenues 82.0% 86.3% 84.7% 86.4% 87.8% 92.0% 12.5% 30.8% 73.4%
Energy generation and storage 9.5% 7.2% 6.2% 6.3% 5.2% 39.3% ( 1.5% ) 30.2% 39.9%
Services and other 8.5% 6.5% 9.1% 7.3% 7.1% 39.0% 60.0% 3.6% 64.9%
Total revenues 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 82.5% 14.5% 28.3% 70.7%
Cost of revenue
Automotive sales 70.5% 78.6% 77.7% 79.1% 80.6% 103.5% 16.5% 23.6% 64.6%
Automotive leasing 7.4% 2.8% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% ( 31.1% ) ( 5.9% ) 22.7% 73.7%
Total Automotive Cost 77.9% 81.4% 80.0% 81.3% 83.0% 90.7% 15.7% 23.5% 64.8%
Energy generation and storage 9.2% 7.8% 6.5% 7.9% 7.3% 56.2% ( 1.8% ) 47.4% 47.7%
Services and other 12.9% 10.8% 13.5% 10.7% 9.7% 53.0% 47.3% ( 3.6% ) 46.2%
Cost of revenue 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 82.7% 17.7% 21.4% 61.5%
Automotive:
Direct Sales: Tesla sell vehicles on there websites & international network of company owned stores. However, Sales of vehicles in the automobile industry tend
to be cyclical in many markets, which may expose to volatility from time to time.
Used Vehicle SalesSelling these used vehicles for Replacement, to existing tesla customers or new customers
Public Charging: Also provide charging services for fee or free in some sale programs. The cost of re-locating the super chargers will also be low. As tesla uses solar
& energy storage systems. Tesla will install crowed areas, near homes on request, residental place & Complex's
In-App Upgrades: As our vehicles are capable of being updated remotely over-the-air. Tesla customers may purchase additional paid options & other features
through tesla app.
Expecting in future, company will earn revenue from this services also viva subscriptions.
Energy Generation and Storage:
Sells solar and energy storage products to residential, commercial and industrial customers and utilities through a variety of channels. Which
includes websites, stores, galleries. Also sells commercial & utility scale energy storage systems to customers through various channels, Also install
solar energy systems with or without storage to commercial customers through cash, lease, PPA agreements. ( Power Purchase agreements )
Services: Tesla provide service for our electric vehicles at our company-owned service locations and through Tesla Mobile Service technicians
Energy Generation and Storage & Solar Energy Systems: We provide service and repairs to our energy product customers, including under warranty where applicable
Financial Services:We offer leasing, financing arrangements for our customers in certain jurisdictions in North America, Europe & Asia through various institutions. Also includ
Income Statement:
Direct Recognition will be, when the control of a vehicle transfers.
Revenue Sell with resale value Recognition will be, when delivery happens.
Automotive Regulatory Credit When control transfer
Automotive Leasing Revenue Will be given vehicles on lease. The payment to tesla, will be considered as revenue from leases over 4yr's
Upfront payments Considered as deferred revenue.