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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: Company

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101 views3 pages

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: Company

Uploaded by

/jncjdncjdn
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS

#ADDIN?
(USD in millions)

ASSUMPTIONS BETA CALCULATION


Mkt. Val. Unlevered
Tax Rate (5 Year Average) NA Ticker Name 5Yr Avg Tax Rate Levered Beta Total Debt Equity Pref Equity Debt/ Equity Pref/ Equity Beta(2)
Risk-Free Rate of Return (Rf)(1) #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? NA #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? NA NA NA
#ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? NA #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? NA NA NA
Size Premium 0.0% #ADDIN? #ADDIN? NA #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? NA NA NA
AAPL D/(D+P+E) #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? NA #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? NA NA NA
AAPL D/E #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? NA #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? NA NA NA
AAPL P/E #ADDIN? NasdaqGS:AA#ADDIN? NA #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? NA NA NA
Choice for Cost of Debt Company
AAPL Cost of Debt (Rd) - Average of Last 5 Issued Bonds 0.0% Average #ADDIN? #DIV/0!
Comparable Corporate Yield Curve Rate #ADDIN?
AAPL Cost of Preferred (Rp) 0.0% Average Unlevered Beta for Comps #DIV/0!
AAPL D/E #ADDIN?
Risk Free Rate AAPL P/E #ADDIN?
Choose United States Tax Rate (5 Year Average) NA
Then AAPL Levered Beta (3) #VALUE!

Corporate Yield Curves


Currency Sector Rating Tenor WACC SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

USD Industrials AA 5Y D/(D+P+E) Pre-Tax Cost of Debt


WACC #ADDIN? 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.50% 9.00%
35.0% #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Market Risk Premium (Rm - Rf) #ADDIN? 40.0% #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Multiplied by: AAPL Bottom-Up Beta #VALUE! 45.0% #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Adjusted Market Risk Premium #ADDIN? 50.0% #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Add: Risk-Free Rate of Return (Rf)(1) #ADDIN? 55.0% #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Add: Size Premium 0.0% 60.0% #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Cost of Equity #ADDIN? 65.0% #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Multiplied by: AAPL E/(D+P+E) #ADDIN?
Cost of Equity Portion #ADDIN?
WACC SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
AAPL Cost of Debt (Rd) - Average of Last 5 Issued Bonds 0.0%
Tax Rate (5 Year Average) NA E/(D+P+E) Cost of Equity
After-Tax Cost of Debt #VALUE! #ADDIN? 2.00% 2.75% 3.50% 4.25% 5.00% 5.75% 6.50% 7.25% 8.00%
Multiplied by: AAPL D/(D+P+E) #ADDIN? 35.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Cost of Debt Portion #VALUE! 40.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
45.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
AAPL Cost of Preferred (Rp) 0.0% 50.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Multiplied by: AAPL P/(D+P+E) #ADDIN? 55.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Cost of Preferred Portion #ADDIN? 60.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
65.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
WACC #ADDIN?

(1) Interest on United States Treasury Constant Maturity - 1 Month


(2) Unlevered Beta = Levered Beta / ( 1 + ((D/E) * (1 - T)) + P/E)
(3) Levered Beta = Unlevered Beta * ( 1 + ((D/E) * (1 - T)) + P/E)
Source: S&P Capital IQ

Copyright © 2019 S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC (and its affiliates as applicable) – All rights reserved.  This model and/or any data in it are provided subject to the written agreement of S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC governing the subscription service to which this model is applied.
PROJECTED CASH FLOWS
(USD in millions, except per share data) 996 997 998 999 1000

#ADDIN? CAGR
#ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Total Revenue #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Annual Growth NA NA NA NA #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Cost of Revenue #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Margin NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
EBITDA #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Annual Growth NA NA NA NA #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Margin NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Less: Depreciation and Amortization #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
% of Capital Expenditure NA NA NA NA NA #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
EBIT #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Annual Growth NA NA NA NA #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Margin NA NA NA NA NA #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Less: Income Taxes NA #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Unlevered Net Income #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Plus: Depreciation and Amortization #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Less: Capital Expenditure #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Margin NA NA NA NA NA #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Less: Additions to Intangibles #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Less: Increase in Working Capital #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Margin NA NA NA NA NA #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Unlevered Free Cash Flow #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Annual Growth NA NA NA NA #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Discount Factor - End-of-Period Convention #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?


PV of Yearly Cash Flows #VALUE! #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
#ADDIN?

#VALUE! DCF Assumptions


% of TEV % of MVE
#ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! Weighted Average Cost of Capital #ADDIN?
#ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
PV of Terminal Value(1) #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! Terminal EBITDA Multiple #ADDIN?
Enterprise Value #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Less: Implied Perp. Growth Rate of Unlevered Free Cash Flow(2) #VALUE!
Total Debt #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Preferred Stock #ADDIN? #ADDIN? Tax Rate NA
Minority Interest #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Plus:
Cash and Equivalents #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Equity Value #ADDIN? #ADDIN?

Shares Outstanding #ADDIN?


Implied Per Share Value #ADDIN?
Current Price #ADDIN?
Premium/(Discount) to Current Price #ADDIN?

#ADDIN?
#ADDIN?
(2) Implied Perpetual Growth Rate of FCF = [(Terminal EBITDA)*(Terminal EBITDA Multiple)*(WACC) - (Terminal Year FCF)] / [(Terminal EBITDA)*(Terminal EBITDA Multiple) + (Terminal Year FCF)]
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
(USD in millions, except per share data)

Discounted Present Value of Terminal Value Present Value of Enterprise Value


AAPL CF EBITDA Exit Multiple EBITDA Exit Multiple
WACC #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
#ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#ADDIN? #VALUE! + #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! = #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Net Debt(1) Present Value of Equity Equity Value per Share


AAPL at EBITDA Exit Multiple EBITDA Exit Multiple
WACC #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
#ADDIN? #ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! Divided #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#ADDIN? #ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! By #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#ADDIN? - #ADDIN? = #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#ADDIN? #ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! Shrs #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#ADDIN? #ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! = #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Implied Perpetual Growth Rate of FCF Premium/(Discount) to Current Price per Share
AAPL EBITDA Exit Multiple EBITDA Exit Multiple
WACC #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
#ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#ADDIN? => #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#ADDIN? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

(1) Equals Total Debt plus Preferred Equity plus Minority Interest Less Cash and Equivalents.

WORKING CAPITAL SCHEDULE


(USD in millions, except per share data) 995 996 997 998 999 1000

#ADDIN?
#ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Total Revenue #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Cost of Revenue #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Accounts Receivable #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Receivable Days #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Inventory #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Inventory Days #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Other Current Assets #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Margin #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Total Non-Cash Current Assets #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Accounts Payable #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Payable Days #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Accrued Liabilities #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Margin #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Other Current Liabilities #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Margin #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Total Non-Debt Current Liabilties #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?

Net Working Capital / (Defecit) #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

(Increase) / Decrease in Working Capital #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Source: S&P Capital IQ

Copyright © 2019 S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC (and its affiliates as applicable) – All rights reserved.  This model and/or any data in it are provided subject to the written agreement of S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC governing the subscription service to which this model is applied.

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