Valuation method Minimum value Difference

ONGC 52 week range 51.8 97.85

Comparable Company analysis 255 15
Assumed DCF Analysis 350 80

ABC Analysis

DCF Analysis 350 430

Comparable Company analysis 255 270

52 week range 51.8 149.65

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 6

Minimum value Difference Maximum value

 Maximum value
149.65
270
430

430

50 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

ximum value
 INR BN
Target ONGC Profit 142

Key Competitors
Price EPS (FY 21E) P/E (FY 21E) EV/EBITDA (FY 21E)
Indian Oil Corp 87.1 6.2 14.05
BPCL 415.05 46 9.02
GAIL 97.05 8.8 11.03
HPCL 215.2 23.3 9.24
Petronet LNG 247 15.9 15.53
Indraprastha Gas 389.2 14.6 26.66
Oil India 95.35 16 5.96
Gujrat Gas 309.45 10.9 28.39
GSPL 211.25 25.3 8.35
Mahanagar Gas 969.3 61.3 15.81
12.54
Average 14.40

Data from Money Control

From Broker Report
https://www.hdfcsec.com/hsl.docs//Oil%20&%20Gas%20-%201QFY21%20Resu

Market Cap 1,780.45BN

NOSH 12.58B
Price (2021E) 141.53

Sensistivity Analysis
 market cap/Total annual earnings

s%20-%201QFY21%20Results%20Preview%20-%20HSIE-202007192010046818265.pdf

Beta 1.06
© Corporate Finance Institute®. All rights reserved.
DCF Model
HUL
Assumptions
Tax Rate 40% Free Cash Flow
Discount Rate 10% 80,000 1,328.1 1.0%
72,073
Perpetural Growth Rate 2% 70,000 9.0%
EV/EBITDA Mulltiple 30.0x 60,000 9.5%
Transaction Date 3/31/2017 50,000 10.0%
40,000
Fiscal Year End 3/31/2018 10.5%
30,000
Current Price 1,014.00 11.0%
20,000
Shares Outstanding 452.1 8,964 9,000 11,759
8,479 11.5%
10,000
Debt -
-
Cash 28,369 1/1/2018 1/1/2019 1/1/2020 1/1/2021 1/1/2022
Capex 12,000

Discounted Cash Flow Entry 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Exit Terminal Value
Date 3/31/2017 3/31/2018 3/31/2019 3/31/2020 3/31/2021 3/31/2022 3/31/2022 Perpetural Growth
Time Periods 0 1 2 3 4 EV/EBITDA
Year Fraction 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Average
EBITDA 31,475 25,606 23,549 29,237 36,054 0.92
Less: Cash Taxes 5,350 8,497 6,870 8,853 10,167
Plus: D&A - - - - -
Less: Capex (8,801) (6,122) 28,784 (12,000) (12,000)
Less: Changes in NWC (4,353) (7,454) (8,638) (2,816) (2,451)
Unlevered FCF 8,964 9,000 72,073 11,759 8,479 110,275
(Entry)/Exit 593,804
Transaction CF - 8,964 9,000 72,073 11,759 8,479 704,079

Intrinsic Value Market Value Rate of Return

Enterprise Value 572,087 Market Cap 458,429 Target Price Upside
Plus: Cash 28,369 Plus: Debt - Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Less: Debt - Less: Cash 28,369
Equity Value 600,456 Enterprise Value 430,060 Market Value vs Intrinsic Value
Market Value
Equity Value/Share 1,328.15 Equity Value/Share 1,014.00 Upside
Intrinsic Value

Instructions
Step 1: Get EBIT and D&A from the income statement This file is for educational purposes only. E&O
Step 2: Calculate the net working capital
There are two ways to find NWC:
1. NWC = Current Assets (less cash) - Current Liabilities (less debt)
2. NWC = Accounts Receivable + Inventory - Accounts Payable

Corporate Finance Institute

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com
 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

Terminal Value
Perpetural Growth 105,988
1,081,620
593,804

Rate of Return
Target Price Upside 31%
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Err:502

Market Value vs Intrinsic Value

1,014.00
314.15
Intrinsic Value 1,328.15
This file is for educational purposes only. E&OE

Corporate Finance Institute®

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/