EDUCATION MATTERS

WHAT TO TRADE, WHEN TO TRADE: INTERMARKET ANALYSIS

 DISCLAIMER
Risiko Pelaburan
• Dagangan Online secara margin mempunyai risiko tinggi. Tahap leverage
tinggi boleh membantu atau menyebabkan kerugian.
• Sila pertimbangkan sama ada berdagang Online sesuai untuk anda
dengan mengambil kira pengalaman, objektif pelaburan dan kemampuan
kewangan.
• Ada kemungkinan anda boleh hilang sebahagian atau keseluruhan
pelaburan asal. Oleh itu, jangan gunakan modal daripada wang yang anda
tidak sanggup rugi. Anda seharusnya mengetahui risiko berkaitan
dagangan Online, dan mendapatkan pandangan daripada penasihat
kewangan bebas sekiranya anda mempunyai sebarang kemusykilan.
ZULKIFLI ABDUL RAZAK

FULL TIME INVESTOR

MORE THAN 20 YEARS

EXPERIENCE IN RETAIL
TRADING

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MARKET OUTLOOK

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 Lower gasoline
price reduces
transportation &
production cost

Japan import
almost 100% Lower cost
of its oil. As reduces the price
crude price of Japanese
falls, gasoline exports
price also
falls.

Lower price
attracts more
imports &
increases demand
for Japanese Yen
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 LOWER
DOMESTIC
PRICE

HIGHER LOWER
EXCHANGE INFLATION

LOWER HIGHER
STOCK EXPORT
VALUE PRICE

LOWER
REVENUE

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 CYCLE OF
BOOM & BUST

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BUSINESS CYCLE

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EARLY EXPANSION SLOWDOWN RECESSION
RECOVERY
•LEADING
•RISING INTEREST •LEADING •UNEMPLOYMENT
INDICATORS RISING
RATE INDICATORS START RISING STRONGLY
•INVENTORIES
•SLOWDOWN IN TO DROP •NEGATIVE GDP
DROPPING
CONSUMER •DROP IN GROWTH & FALLING
•STOCKS CONFIDENCE & CONSUMER INFLATION
OUTPERFORM INDUSTRIAL CONFIDENCE & •BONDS
BONDS PRODUCTION INDUSTRIAL OUTPERFORM
•CONSUMER •STOCKS CONTINUE PRODUCTION STOCKS
CONFIDENCE & OUTPERFORM •BONDS BECOMING
INDUSTRIAL BONDS MORE APPEALING
PRODUCTION
STRONG

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 CORRELATED CENTRAL
SURVEYS POLICY DATA
DATA BANK POLICY

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GLOBALIZATION & TECHNOLOGY

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 THE PLAZA ACCORD

• G5 NATIONS SIGNED A PRO-GROWTH

AGREEMENT

• GLOBALIZATION VS SOVEREIGNITY

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TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT &
FINANCIAL INSTITUTION

1920- • OFFICE
1950 EQUIPMENT

1950- • MAINFRAME
COMPUTERS
1980
• DIGITAL
1980- GLOBALIZATION

NOW • BLOCKCHAIN
TECHNOLOGY

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GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL MARKET

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 MONEY
MARKET
RATE

ECONOMIC ECONOMIC
POLICY ACTIVITY

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 FINANCIAL FINANCIAL
INSTRUMENTS INSTRUMENTS

FINANCIAL
MARKET

INVESTORS / LENDERS /
CREDITORS DEBTORS

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 FINANCIAL
MARKET

CAPITAL
COMMODITY DERIVATIVES CURRENCY INSURANCE
MARKET

BOND EQUITY

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BOND MARKET
• FINANCING THROUGH DEBT
ISSUANCE & TRADING
STOCK MARKET
• FINANCING THROUGH ISSUANCE
OF EQUITY & TRADING
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 CALL
MONEY
MONEY
MARKET
INTERBANK
MARKET

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 COMMODITY MARKET
CRUDE OIL COFFEE GOLD
• WTi & BRENT • 2ND MOST TRADED • INVESTMENT, JEWELRY &
COMMODITY (OVER $100B) MANUFACTURING
• GEOPOLITICAL &
ECONOMIC EVENTS • GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY • CENTRAL BANK RESERVES
(BRAZIL, VIETNAM &
• US STOCKPILES COLOMBIA) • US POLITICAL
UNCERTAINTY
• OPEC • CLIMATE
• INTEREST RATE
• NATURAL DISASTER • ENTERPRISE TRADING
(KRAFT, P&G, SARA LEE & • JEWELRY & INDUSTRIAL
NESTLE) DEMAND

• SPECULATIVE • WEALTH PROTECTION

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 ETF

EXCHANGE-
FUTURES
TRADED

OPTIONS
DERIVATIVES
MARKET FORWARDS

OVER-THE-
SWAPS
COUNTER

CREDIT

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• LARGEST & MOST LIQUID
MARKET

• DAILY AVERAGE TRADED

VALUE OF USD5 TRILLION

• VEHICLE FOR CAPITAL

FLOW ACROSS BORDER
& SECURITY

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 POLICY POLICY

INSURANCE
MARKET

INSURERS POLICYHOLDERS

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 PRICE & VALUE OF
FINANCIAL SECURITIES

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DEMAND

SUPPLY
GROWTH

SENTIMENT
POLITIC
ECONOMIC
POLICY
INFLATION
PRICE

SUPPLY &
DEMAND
YIELD & RISK

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 CARRY TRADE

• YIELD DIFFERENTIALS

• APPRECIATION/DEPRECIATION OF
DIFFERENTIALS

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 CURRENCY

FUND USING INVEST IN

LOW YIELD HIGH YIELD EQUITY
FUNDING ASSET

DIVIDEND
YIELDING
SECURITIES

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 RISK RISK
APPETITE AVERSION

YIELD SAFETY OF
SEEKING FUND

CARRY CARRY
TRADE TRADE
INTENSIFIES UNWINDING
 S
E
N
T MARKET
THEMES I
M DATA
E
N
T

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CENTRAL BANKS

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 GOVERNMENT CENTRAL BANK CITIZENS

• FISCAL POLICY • MONETARY • EMOTIONAL

• DISTRIBUTION POLICY IMMATURITY
OF WEALTH • SUPPLY OF • PRODUCTIVITY
• CONFIDENCE CREDIT • CREATOR OF
• STABILITY WEALTH

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 POLICY MAKERS

FISCAL & MONETARY POLICY ECONOMIC PROJECTION

MARKET PARTICIPATION

QUANTITATIVE STUDY QUALITATIVE STUDY

TRADING OPPORTUNITY
ANTICIPATION REACTION

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MARKET TYPE ANALYSIS

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DIRECTION

MARKET
TYPE
PRICE
VOLATILITY

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 WHICH SECURITY IS MOVING?

WHICH DIRECTION IS THE SECURITY BEING MOVED?

THE REASONS THAT THE SECURITY IS MOVING THAT WAY?

WHAT EXPECTATIONS OTHER ANALYSTS HAVE REGARDING THE MOVE?

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LIQUIDITY

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 RISK LIQUIDITY

YIELD

1045-1115
8.00 AM 2.30-3.15 PM 4.00 PM 8.20-8.40 PM 900-930 PM 9.30 PM 2.00 AM
PM

• TOKYO • NEW
• NEW • DAILY
MONEY • PRE • LONDON • PRE NEW YORK • MONEY
SESSION YORK SPOT
LONDON OPEN YORK MONEY EXITS
OPEN TRADE
FLOW

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COST OF FUNDING & RISK FACTORS
• GLOBAL MARKET: MOVEMENT OF INVESTMENT FUND ACROSS
BORDER

• LIBOR RATE: GLOBAL REFERENCE RATES FOR SHORT TERM

INTEREST RATES
- INTEREST RATE SWAPS, FLOATING RATE LOAN RESETS &
INTERBANK RATE
- PUBLISH DAILY AT 10:45 GMT (6:45PM MALAYSIA TIME)

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 POSITIVE NEGATIVE
SENTIMENT SENTIMENT

LOW HIGHER
LIBOR LIBOR

LOW HIGHER
FUNDING FUNDING
COST COST
 SIGNIFICANCE

• MOVEMENT OF FUNDS
- COST OF FUNDING

• POLICY DECISION BY CENTRAL BANKS

- SUPPLY OF CREDIT
- EASING & TIGHTENING POLICY TOOLS

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INTERMARKET STRATEGY

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COMMON MARKET CORRELATION

SECURITY COMMON EFFECT

US BOND YIELDS YIELD UP / USD UP

GOLD PRICE GOLD UP / USD DOWN / AUD UP / CAD UP

CRUDE OIL PRICE CRUDE UP / USD DOWN / CAD UP

EMERGING MARKETS EMERGING MARKETS DOWN / USD UP

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YIELD RISK LIQUIDITY

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 DEPOSIT

WITHDRAWAL

INTER
POSITION INTRADAY MARKET
SECURITY NEWS TRADE XMP
TRADE TRADE MONEY
HEDGE TRADE

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TAKE HOME EXERCISE

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SELF PREPARATION

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 SELF PREPARATION
HOW DO YOU DESCRIBE YOURSELF FINANCIALLY?

• WORRY ABOUT MONEY ALL THE TIME

• SOMETIMES WORRY ABOUT MONEY
• SELDOM WORRY ABOUT MONEY
• RARELY WORRY ABOUT MONEY
• NEVER WORRY ABOUT MONEY

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TRADING OBJECTIVES

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 TRADING OBJECTIVES

• WHAT IS YOUR RISK OF RUIN?

- THE PERCENTAGE/AMOUNT OF
DRAWDOWN WHERE YOU CAN NO LONGER
CONTINUE TRADING

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COMPELLING MARKET
MODEL FORMATION

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 COMPELLING MARKET MODEL

WHAT ARE YOUR COMPLEX EXIT SETUPS?

• DO YOU EMPLOY SCALE IN, SCALE OUT

CONCEPT?
• CUTTING LOSSES SHORT, RUNNING
WINNERS LONG

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INVEST IN A SYSTEM,
TRADE YOUR SYSTEM

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Q&A SESSION

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