35 1 2011 1

Vol 35, No 1 January 2011

Popu lation R esearch

103

1980~ 2008 140

,

,
: , 2008 2. 5
1972~ 2008, , , 4. 58

; ;

, : 100872

The Impact of China ! s Fam ily P lann ing P olicy

on D emographic Transition
Tao Tao Yang Fan
Abstract: Th is paper attem pts to estm
i a te how many b irths were averted in China by the fam ily
p lann ing po lic y. Us ing country leve l data from W orld Populat io n Data S heet from 1980 to 2008, re
g ress ion m ode ls are constructed betw een econom ic, soc ia l and dem ograph ic variab le s from more
than 140 countries w ithout any fam ily p lann in g po lic y, tota l fert ility ra te ( TFR ) be ing the p red ic ted var
iab le. D if ferent popu la tion trends a re generated from popu lat ion proje ctions using estm
i a ted and ac
tua l TFR. Regressio n ana ly s is y ie lds a pred ic ted TFR of about 2. 5 in Ch ina in 2008 under the cond it ion
of no fam ily p lann in g po lic y. There were 458 m illio n b irths w ere averted in Ch in a betw een 1972 and
2008 by the fam ily p lann ing po lic y, exc lud ing the m
i pac t of econom ic and soc ia l deve lopment.
Keywords: Fam ily P lann in g Po lic y, Tota l Fert ility Rate, Popu la tion Project io n
Authors: Tao Tao and Yang Fan are PhD S tudents, Center for Popu la tion and Deve lopm ent S tud
ie s, Renm in Un ivers ity of Ch in a. Be ij ing: 100872, Ema i:l ttfly21351005@ 163. com

( :
; : 10XNH 087)

104

35

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62% , 68% ,
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105

, 1979 1980, ,

1
T able 1 R ev iew of Stud ies on A verted B irths by Ch ina! s Fam ily P lanning Po licy

( )

1971~ 1990

3. 86

1971~ 1986

1. 2

1973

1974~ 1994

3. 28

1971~ 1991

2. 21

1971~ 1998

3. 38

, AR IMA

1971~ 1998

4. 05

%
# 2

1970~ 2000

1980~ 1989

2. 25

1979~ 2009
2
: ( 1), . . , 2004; 4
( 2) . . : ,
2007: 909~ 910
( 3) http: / /b log. sina. com. cn /s /b log_4c8e56e20100 jx8p. htm l
( 4) , , . . , 2000:
32~ 33

2000
#
, 1971~ 1998,
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, 1971
, 1971~ 1998
, , 28 3. 38 ( ,
2000) , ,
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1950~ 1970, 1970 1998
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2000 #:

106

35

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( 1950~ 1970 ) ( 1971~ 1998 )
; 29,
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1972~ 2008 1971 7, %
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, 2009) ,
, 1972

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2. 1
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1980~ 2008 %, 4
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2. 2. 1

107

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2. 2. 2
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( ) %,
130, 19, 53,
55. 4% 53, 31, 4
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2. 2. 3
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, 2009 10000 5,

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108

35

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2. 3. 3 ( % )
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3
3. 1
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1
F igure 1 M atrix P lots of the Independent V ariab les and D ependent V ar iable

: 1980~ 2008

, ,
, ,

109

3. 2

, 2:
2
T able 2 M ultiple R eg ression M ode l o f TFR ag ainst So cio- econom ic V a riab les

( & )

5. 496
0. 0276

0. 17533
0. 00059

31. 35
46. 75

0. 000
0. 000

- 0. 2489
- 0. 3246

0. 01849
0. 03658

- 13. 47
- 8. 87

0. 000
0. 000

R = 0. 77

F = 3728. 22

sig= 0. 000

: = 5. 496+ 0. 0276* - 0. 2489*

- 0. 3246*

, , 77% ,
,
,
, ,
,
3. 3
,
, ,

,
2010

2 : 1972~ 2008
F igure 2 Com pa rison between P red icted TFR and A c tua lT FR: 1972- 2008

%
( ,
1995 ) ( ,
2009)

,

;

,

;
1972~ 2008,
( 2) , ,
, 1972 2008, , 1972
4. 98 2008 2. 5,

110

35

( )
, 3:
3
T ab le 3 Com parison betw een the P red ic ted TFR from the
M u ltip le R egression and TFR in M a jor A reas o f theW o rld

( )

2000
2005

3. 21
2. 78

1. 8
1. 8

2. 9
2. 7

1. 5
1. 6

3. 2
3

3. 7
3. 5

5. 3
5. 1

5. 8
5. 6

2008

2. 52

1. 8

2. 6

1. 6

2. 8

3. 2

4. 9

5. 4

3, , 2008 2. 52,
2. 6, 3. 2,
( 4. 9 5. 4) ,
, , 1972 4. 98
2008 2. 52( 0. 7,
) 2008 2. 52
1. 8,
3. 4
spectrum
: ( 1 ) 1972,
1972, 1964
, 1972 ( 2) ASFR UN A sia ( 3)
,

( 4)

F igure 3 T o tal P opulation Compar isons betw een M ode lw ithout

( 5)
UN East Asia
( 6) 0 ( 7 )
TFR 1990

1990~ 2002
(
, 2009), 2002
1. 8 ( 8)
TFR

,
TFR ,

Fam ily P lann ing P o licy,

the A ctua lM ode l and the Bureau o f S tatistics

111

,
, ,
, ,
,
, , 1972~
2008 4:
4
T ab le 4 B irths A v erted by F am ily P lanning Po licy in Se lected Y ears

1982
1990

( )
107671
127634

( )
100649
112781

( )
7022
14853

2000
2005

156690
170623

124519
129507

32171
41116

2008

178071

132237

45834

, 1972 2000 28,

3. 2, 2005 4. 1, 2008 4. 58
, , ,
2000 # ( 1971~ 1998
3. 38 ) , 30 4
4

,
, , , 1972
2008, 2. 5
, ( 1. 8) 0. 7
,
,
, 1972 ~ 2008,
4. 58
, 1972~ 2008

, ,
, ; ,
, ; , ,

, , ,
, 1972~ 2008 4. 58
,

112

35

, ,
, # 2008
, ? 4. 84. 5 4. 2?
, 1970, 4,

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Pub lic H ealth and Popu lation

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