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20

III

IMF

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bank

OECD

-
(%)
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MF 2008, World bank 2008 and OECD 2008

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: UNCTAD WIR 2009

22

III

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: UNCTAD WIR 2009

23

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: UNCTAD WIR 2009, Doing business report 2009, 2010

24

III

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34

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36

III

5.
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3.

BOPCOM-01/36
Use of Balance of Payments Statistics in the United
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Policy Applications of Balance of Payments and IIP Statistics
BOPCOM-02/49
Use of Balance of Payments Statistics in Foreign Exchange
Policy Formulation: Russias Experience
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Use of Balance of Payments Statistics: Case of Saudi
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43

http://www.mongolbank.mn/web/guest/statistics/
balance-of-payment

munkhbaatar@mongolbank.mn

: 318304, 327088

15

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54

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2009 3
, 2008
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: World Gold Council

65

USD-
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66

III

. (Bloomberg,
Reuters, Morgan Stanley, 4CAST)

,
(
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2008
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6959

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2009F
2010
2010F
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2008
annual
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907

2009
2009F
2010
2010F
Q2 Q3 Q4F annual Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F annual
943
925 930 910 880
911
923 960 980

67

1.
2.
3.
4. .

: .
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, , , , , ,

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12- 15 .
8 6
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20092012 , 2009 22 2
,

, 2009 5
, .

68

III

 7 , 44
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69

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,

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36.7%- .
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70

III

, ,
, -
2009 7 9- .

2.

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,
2005
.
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, 2006 11 10-
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,
2007 5 15- -
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200
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- 2008 49-56,
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72

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74

III


: .
, ,

:
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:

.
Short hedge .
Long hedge .

75

-
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2009

17.58

76

III

56% , 44%-

 :
Daily QXAU=EBS

02/01/08 - 18/12/09 (GMT)

a O C, Q U
S, ast Quote
30/11/09, 1 181.20, 1 181.50, 1 163.60, 1 175.00

2009

17.58

56% , 44%-

Thousands

10/30/2009

3500
3000
2500

Options
58%

2000

Futures
42%

Options

1500

Futures

1000
Source: CFTC

500

12/31/2005

0
12/31/2005 12/31/2006 12/31/2007 12/31/2008 10/30/2009
Source: CFTC

2009 10
2.9
.
2005 2
.

Options
43%

Futures
57%

Source: CFTC

77

 :
Source: CFTC, Reuters
2070000
132
1870000

1670000

112

1470000

1270000

92

1070000
72
870000

670000
52

270000

1/4/2005
2/8/2005
3/15/2005
4/19/2005
5/24/2005
6/28/2005
8/2/2005
9/6/2005
10/11/2005
11/15/2005
12/20/20
1/24/2006
2/28/2006
4/4/2006
5/9/2006
6/13/2006
7/18/2006
8/22/2006
9/26/2006
10/31/20
12/5/2006
1/9/2007
2/13/2007
3/20/2007
4/24/2007
5/29/2007
7/3/2007
8/7/2007
9/11/2007
10/16/2007
11/20/2007
12/24/20
1/29/2008
3/4/2008
4/8/2008
5/13/2008
6/17/2008
7/22/2008
8/26/2008
9/30/2008
11/4/2008
12/9/2008
1/13/2009
2/17/2009
3/24/2009
4/28/2009
6/2/2009
7/7/2009
8/11/2009
9/15/2009
10/20/20

470000

:
2008 /1-6 /

2009 /1-6 /

0.39%

0.54%

FUTURES
99.61%

OPTIONS

Source: NYMEX

2008 2.4
,0.01
-

.

78

III

99.46%

Source: NYMEX

2009 2.8
, 0.01
.
17%
, 15%
.

32

 :
8900

54500

7900
44500

6900
34500
5900
24500
4900

14500

3900

4500

2900

79


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2008 7-
.
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.
2009
.

2003
2008



2008
1920

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.
2009 2-

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80

III


130
.

26 .
,
.

.
30 33
.
, ,
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.
,

,
. NYMEX (1872),
IPE (1980), LME (1877) CBOT (1850), Shanghai (1990)
.

2001

2008 7
$140/bl
.

$75/bl
.
4

.

.
1-
.


.

7-
1
$9,000,00-
12 $3,100.00- .
1
$6,800.00-


.

81

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)

82

III



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84

III


15

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63

61

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58

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56

54

.9

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52

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51

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49

Profit/Loss

10

-10
-15

Market Oil Price (USD/BBL)

12

.

.
.
.
$30.00

$20.00

$10.00

Profit / Loss

$0.00

-$10.00
Long Inventory
-$20.00

Short Futures
Final Payout

-$30.00
$90

$95

$100

$105

$110

$115

$120

$125

$130

$135

$140

Price / Barrel

13

85


,


.

.

$30

Long Inventory
Long Put

$20

Final Payout

Profit / Loss

$10

$0

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-$20

-$30
$90

$95

$100

$105

$110

$115

$120

$125

$130

$135

$140

Price / Barrel

14

o
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o
o

15

86

III

 -
ABC 500 2
.
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16

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17

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2009 3-
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, 20
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.



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18

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88

III


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21

89

1.
2.
3.
4. .

: Alicia Hierro

External Sector Statistics

Ulaanbaatar
December 8, 2009

90

III

Outline
Main data sets covered in this conference
Balance of Payments
International Investment position
External Debt

Purpose of statistics
Why should information be reported?
International Organizations
Mongolian authorities
Mongolian reporting companies
2

Main data sets

Balance of Payments
Measures transactions between an economy and the rest of
the world: credits and debits from/to non residents
Based on flow data
International Investment Position
Measures positions between an economy and the rest of the
world: financial claims and liabilities on/to non residents
Based on stock data
External Debt
Measures what a country owes to the rest of the world
Subset of International Investment Position

91

Purpose of Statistics
Data availability to better understand economic
situation
Common framework
Same methodologies applied by all countries
Same concepts, same principles
Valuation
Timing
Residency criteria

Enables data comparability and analysis

Decision making on economic policies
4

Why should information be

reported?
International Organizations and
Mongolian authorities
Allows analysis
Allows better decision making process
Allows assessment of the impact of
actions taken on economy
Wrong data wrong analysis wrong
decisions: impact other than desired

Both want the best for your economy!

5

92

III

Why should information be

reported?
What does this have to do with
Mongolian companies ?
Companies have a crucial role as
reporters of information
and in the end would benefit too!
Not only by supporting international
organizations and your own
government in preparing policy
favorable for attracting FDI, promoting
exports
6

Why should information be

reported?
You can use data to track your own
performance against industry averages
Relative position as exporters/importers
of goods and services

Plan marketing strategies

Evaluate expansion and investment
plans
Prepare business plans for investors

93

Why should information be

reported?
But above all, benefits your country
as a whole
Information availability means
TRANSPARENCY
CREDIBILITY
ATTRACTIVENESS TO FOREIGN
INVESTMENT
ACCESS TO INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
8

94

III

 III

2009 12 8-

,

,
2009 12 8- .
,
, ,

. :
1.

:

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,
;
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,

2.

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;

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,

3.

:
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4.

, : ;
, , ,
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; ,
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----- oOo -----

95

.
.

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.


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.

96

III

10

................................................................

.
1. :
a.
b. / , /
c.
d.
e.
f. ,
g. / / ................................................
2. ?

. / /
a. .............................................
b. .............................................
c. ..............................................

a.
b.
c.

. / /
.............................................
.............................................
.............................................

3.
?
a. ,
b. -
c.
d. / / ................................................................
4.
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b.
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5.
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d.
6. ?
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c.

97

7. ?
a.
b.
c.
d.
8.
?
a.
b.
c.
d.
9. , ?
a.
b.
c.
d.
10. 12 ?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
11. 12 ( 12
) () ?
a.
b.
12. 12 ()
?
a. 0-5
b. 6-10
c. 11-15
d. 16-20
e. 21
13. ?
a.
b.
c.
d.
14. ?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
15. ?
a. .
b.
c.

98

III

d.
e.
f. / / ..........................................
16. ?
a.
b.
c.
d.
17. ?
a.
b.
c.
d.
18.
?
a.
b.
c.
d.
19.
?
a.
b.
c. 3
d.
20.
?
a. 1
b. 2
c.
d.

e.
21. ?
a.
b.
c.
d.
22.
?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
, !

99

100

III