N cng Vit Nam Nhng vn cn bn thm

TS.L Phan Th Diu Tho v Nguyn Tho Phng* Sau khng hong ti chnh ton cu (2008), n cng v khng hong n cng tr thnh thut ng ph bin trong cc bn tin kinh t ni chung v ti chnh ni ring. Trong thi gian gn y, n cng khng ch l ni lo lng ca chnh ph m cn l s quan tm ca c cng ng. Tht vy, Zimbabwe - quc gia c t l lm pht khng khip cng chnh l nc c t l n cng trn GDP cao nht th gii. Mi lin kt gia cc thnh vin trong EU ang b e e da bi khng hong n cng. Thng 4/2011, ni cc ca Chnh ph M bt ng v n cng. Ti Vit Nam, theo World Factbook ca CIA (Central Intelligence Agency), t l n cng so vi GDP nm 2009 l 52,30% v Vit Nam hin ang xp th 44 trong 129 quc gia v n cng (bng 1).
Bng 1: Thc trng n cng nm 2009 ca mt s quc gia trn th gii

i hc Ngn hng TP.H Ch Minh

THC TRNG N CNG TI VIT NAM V quy m n cng Theo cng b ca Tp ch Kinh t The Economist, t l n cng nm 2010 ca Vit Nam l 50,935 t USD tng ng 51,6% GDP. Mc d t l n ny vn nm trong tm kim sot (di 50%/GDP) nhng n qu cao so vi mc ph bin cc nn kinh t ang pht trin (t 30-40%) v vi thc trng n cng ca mt s nn kinh t mi ni nh Trung Quc (17,4%), Indonesia (26,5%). Ngoi ra, cng theo The Economist, mc n cng tnh trn u ngi ca Vit Nam nm 2010 l 580,91 USD. Nu so snh vi 713,6 USD (Trung Quc), 743 USD (Indonesia), 4.184 USD (Malaysia), 1.071 USD (Philippines), 2.064 USD (Thi Lan) th y l con s khng cao. Tuy nhin, nu so mc n cng bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam vo nm 2001 xp x 112 USD; th trong vng 10 nm, con s ny tng gp 5 ln. Vi thc trng t l tit kim ni a khong 27% GDP trong khi mc u t ton x hi mi nm khong 42% GDP ti Vit Nam hin nay, th chc chn con s ny s tip tc gia tng trong nhng nm ti. V c cu n cng Trc ht v hnh thc vay n: Theo Lut Qun l n cng Vit Nam 2009, n cng bao gm n Chnh ph, n c Chnh ph bo lnh v n chnh quyn a phng. Vi cch tnh ny, n Chnh ph chim t trng ln trong tng n cng ca Vit Nam. C th, t l n cng nm 2009 Vit Nam l 52,6%/GDP, n Chnh ph l 41,9%, n Chnh ph bo lnh l 9,8%, n chnh quyn a phng l 0,8%. Con s tng t ca nm 2010 ln lt l 56,6%, 44,3%, 11,36% v 0,94% (biu 1).
Biu 1: C cu n cng ca Vit Nam nm 2010

Ngun: B Ti chnh (BTC)

Hai l tiu ch n trong nc v quc t: Trong c cu n cng Vit Nam, n nc ngoi c vai tr quan trng v chim t trng cao nht. Nm 2010, trong 56,6% GDP n cng c 42,2% GDP l n nc ngoi (biu 2). Mc d n cng khc vi n nc ngoi, nhng hin nay Vit Nam, thng tin chi tit v n cng cha y ; do vy, cc nh kinh t thng s dng ch s n nc ngoi hnh dung quy m v mc nghim trng ca n cng ca quc gia.
Biu 2: N nc ngoi so vi tng n cng Vit Nam 2006-2010 (n v tnh: % GDP)

Ngun: WB

Ngun cung cp n nc ngoi ch yu ca Vit Nam l cc khon vay ODA. Theo danh mc n cng nm 2009 ca B Ti chnh (BTC), 60,3% n cng l ODA v 29,8% c ti tr t tri phiu trong nc1. Cc iu khon u i ca ODA gip Vit Nam gim bt c p lc n cng; tuy nhin, t trng n nc ngoi cao tng nguy c ri ro v c cu n trong tng lai. Kinh nghim t cc cuc khng hong n trong lch s cho thy, khi t trng n nc ngoi qu cao, Chnh ph mt i tnh ch ng khi ng ph vi cc bin ng kinh t th gii v kh kim sot cc mn n vay ph thuc vo t gi hi oi v tm l ca nh u t quc t. Khng hong n Argentina (2001) v s bt n ca Hy Lp hin nay l minh chng in hnh cho tc ng tiu cc ca ngun n cng t nc ngoi. Trng hp ngc li l Nht, mc d c mc n cng trn GDP cao nhng Nht Bn vn c nh gi l bn vng do n cng ch yu c ti tr t cc nh u t trong nc. Ba l yu t li sut: Cc khon vay nc ngoi ca Vit Nam a s u c li sut thp, trong ch yu l mc 1% - 2,99%. Tuy nhin so vi cc nm trc, nm 2010, cc khon vay ca Vit Nam c li sut cao hn v khon vay vi li sut th ni ang ngy cng tng ln, gy thm p lc n cho Chnh ph. Trong 25,097 t USD tng n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph, c 19,313 t USD c li sut t 1 - 2,99%; trn 1,678 t USD chu li sut t 3 - 5,99% (tng 176 triu USD so vi 2009) v c ti 1,888 t USD mc li sut 6- 10%, tng hn gp i so vi 2009. Ngoi ra, cc khon vay vi li sut th ni cng tng 6,66 triu USD so vi 2009. Theo Cc Qun l n v Ti chnh i ngoi, li sut trung bnh n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph tng t 1,54%/nm vo nm 2006 ln 1,9%/nm trong nm 2009 v nm 2010 t ti 2,1%/nm. Vi thc trng ny, r rng chi ph tr li ang tr thnh gnh nng ngy cng gia tng ca Chnh ph. Bn l c cu tin vay: N nc ngoi ca Vit Nam kh a dng v c cu tin vay. Trn l thuyt, iu ny c cho l c th hn ch ri ro v t gi, gim p lc ln ngha v tr n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph. Tuy nhin, trn thc t c cu ny cng tim n nhng ri ro khi c bin ng trn th trng ti chnh th gii. T trng cao ca cc khon vay bng USD (22,95%) v JPY (38,25%) (biu 3) gy nguy c gia tng khon chi gc v li khi t gi USD/VND lun c xu hng tng; v JPY ang ln gi so vi USD.
Biu 3: C cu d n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph phn theo loi tin tnh n 30/06/2010

Ngun: Bn tin N nc ngoi s 6 - B Ti chnh

Nh vy, mc d mc n cng so vi GDP ca Vit Nam vn c nh gi l an ton nhng c cu n cng ang n cha nhiu ri ro; do vy, trong tnh trng lm pht ton cu ang gia tng, nguy c bng n chin tranh tin t trn th gii th qun l n cng hiu qu l vn ng quan tm hng u ti Vit Nam hin nay. 2. GII PHP QUN L N CNG VIT NAM HIN NAY Vay n u t cho tng trng kinh t l iu bnh thng din ra hu ht cc nc trn th gii. Tuy vy, n bao nhiu l an ton li l mt bi ton kh gii. Vn mu cht i vi cc nc ang pht trin, trong c Vit Nam, l phi vay mn, nht l vay vn nc ngoi di nhiu hnh thc to ngun vn cho tng trng v phi s dng hiu qu ngun vn vay. Do , Chnh ph cn c bin php tnh ton kim sot mc n ph hp vi nn kinh t v kim sot tt qu trnh s dng ngun vn vay, bng cch xy dng chin lc v h thng cc gii php khoa hc, kh thi v qun l n cng. Mt l, xy dng chin lc v vay n cng Trn c s ph hp vi k hoch pht trin kinh t - x hi, k hoch thu, chi NSNN trong tng giai on, thi k, cn xc nh r mc ch vay (vay n ti tr thm ht ngn sch, ti c cu n v cho vay li hoc vay ti tr cho cc chng trnh, d n u t quan trng, hiu qu, vay nhm m bo an ninh ti chnh quc gia), mc huy ng vn ngn hn, trung hn v di hn theo tng i tng vay trong nc v ngoi nc, vi hnh thc huy ng vn v li sut thch hp. Chin lc v vay n cng cng cn ch r i tng s dng cc khon vay; hiu qu d kin; xc nh chnh xc thi im vay, s vn vay tng giai on, trnh tnh trng tin vay khng c s dng trong thi gian di hoc cha thc s c nhu cu s dng.

Thng thng, vn vay nc ngoi c cc nc ang pht trin u t vo cc d n c s h tng to cho tng trng nhng cn tnh ton, cn i gia chnh cc d n c s h tng. Nu dng n cng pht trin th cc d n phi to ra cng n vic lm, to li nhun. Bn cnh , cn ch n yu t m bo tnh bn vng v quy m v tc tng trng ca n cng cng nh kh nng thanh ton trong nhiu tnh hung khc nhau v hn ch ri ro, chi ph. Mun vy, cn thit lp ngng an ton n cng ph hp vi tnh hnh kinh t ca Vit Nam; thng xuyn nh gi cc ri ro pht sinh t cc khon vay n Chnh ph trong mi lin h vi GDP, thu NSNN, tng kim ngch xut khu, cn cn thng mi, d tr ngoi hi, d tr ti chnh, qu tch ly tr n. ng thi, Vit Nam cn quan tm n huy ng vn trong nc, thay v ch trng vo cc khon ngoi t thu c t i tc cho vay. Gim s l thuc qu nhiu vo vn vay nc ngoi, ng thi nng cao hiu qu s dng ngun vn vay nc ngoi. Mc d ngoi t c th gip cn bng cn cn thanh ton, nhng n nc ngoi mang li nhiu ri ro. Hai l, tng cng kim sot v nng cao hiu qu s dng vn vay t n cng m bo kh nng tr n v tnh bn vng ca n cng, Chnh ph phi tng cng kim sot v nng cao hiu qu s dng vn vay, vn c Chnh ph bo lnh v cc khon vn Chnh ph vay v cho doanh nghip vay li. Chnh ph l ngi vay n nhng khng phi l ngi s dng cui cng cc khon vn vay, m l ch d n, n v th hng ngn sch, doanh nghip, c nhn; trong mi trng hp, NSNN phi gnh chu hu qu, ri ro trong ton b qu trnh vay n. Cc khon vay v bo lnh ny thc cht l ngha v ngn sch d phng, lm ny sinh nguy c NSNN phi trang tri cc khon n ca khu vc doanh nghip trong tng lai, khi doanh nghip gp kh khn hoc mt kh nng thanh ton. Nguy c ny s cng cao hn na khi Chnh ph vay v pht hnh bo lnh khng da trn nhng phn tch thn trng v mc ri ro cng nh nng lc tr n ca doanh nghip. Do , quyt nh vay v cho vay li v bo lnh vay ca Chnh ph cn c kim sot cht ch v thc hin ht sc thn trng, ch nn u tin cho cc chng trnh, d n trng im ca Nh nc hoc thuc cc lnh vc u tin cao ca quc gia v cc d n c mc kh thi v tnh hiu qu cao; khng vay ngn hn u t di hn; vay thng mi nc ngoi ch s dng cho cc chng trnh, d n c kh nng thu hi vn trc tip v bo m kh nng tr n. Song song vi vic , cn phi kim tra, gim st cht ch, thng xuyn qu trnh s dng cc khon vay n, cc khon vay c Chnh ph

bo lnh, nht l ti cc n v s dng trc tip vn vay nh: tp on kinh t, tng cng ty nh nc, NHTM, cc d n ln vi mc ch u t c s h tng. Trnh tnh trng lng ph vn u t, tng bc gim h s ICOR (Biu 4). C nh vy, ngun vn do Chnh ph vay n hoc bo lnh cho vay mi c s dng mt cch c hiu qu, m bo kh nng tr n
Biu 4: H s ICOR ca Vit Nam v mt s quc gia chu

Ba l, cng khai v minh bch thng tin trong qun l n cng N cng l n quc gia; do vy, Chnh ph cn cng khai v minh bch quy m v c cu n cng. Thng tin chnh xc gip nh hoch nh chnh sch c th a ra nhng chnh sch qun l ng n, ph hp vi nn kinh t. Bn cnh , cng khai v minh bch ha nhm tng cng trch nhim trong qun l, s dng cc khon n cng v trch nhim gii trnh ca cc c quan qun l n cng. Hn na, ni cho cng, n cng cng l khon n m ngi dn phi tr thng qua ng thu cho nh nc; do , Chnh ph cn tnh ton v cng b chnh xc cho nhn dn - nhng ngi s tr n - c bit. Mt khc, i vi s dng n cng, cng cn phi minh bch ha, c c ch cht ch v c th ngi dn v x hi gim st c cc cng trnh s dng vn ODA, iu ny cng gip cho ngun vn ODA ni chung v vn vay t n cng ni ring, c s dng hp l v hiu qu nht. Bn l, nng cao vai tr ca h thng kim tra, gim st ti chnh

Kim ton Nh nc (KTNN) l c quan chuyn mn v lnh vc kim tra ti chnh nh nc do Quc hi thnh lp, thc hin kim tra vic qun l, s dng ngn sch, tin v ti sn nh nc. V vy, KTNN kim tra vic qun l v s dng cc khon n cng l iu cn thit, m bo tnh minh bch trong qun l v s dng cc khon n cng cng nh tnh bn vng ca NSNN. Cn quy nh r nhim v kim ton n cng ca c quan ny trong Lut Qun l n cng v Lut KTNN. Tuy nhin, trn thc t do n cng gm nhiu loi hnh khc nhau, mi loi n li c c th v qun l ng thi lin quan n nhiu c quan qun l, i tng s dng; do vy, kim ton n cng c hiu qu, hng nm KTNN phi kim ton cc bo co thng nin v n cng; ng thi tng cng s lng v cht lng cc cuc kim ton chuyn v n cng, nh chuyn kim ton vay n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph, vay n trong nc, cc khon n Chnh ph bo lnh, chi ph vay n... Chnh ph nn xem xt thnh lp mt y ban ring kim tra gim st c lp n cng ca Vit Nam. Hin nay cng vic ny do B Ti chnh m nhim nhng cha c mt c quan chuyn trch nn vic qun l cn nhiu bt cp, chm tr, gy nn nhng tht thot, thiu hiu qu trong vic s dng kim sot n cng. Nm l, gim tnh trng thm ht ngn sch, thm ht cn cn vng lai Ngun b p thm ht cn cn vng lai (biu 5) ch yu t chuyn giao vn, u t nc ngoi v vay n nc ngoi. Nh vy, v c bn, thm ht ti khon vng lai c th c hiu l mt khon vay nc ngoi ca ngi tiu dng, doanh nghip v Chnh ph Vit Nam. b p thm ht cn cn vng lai, Chnh ph li phi vay n thm qua cc knh huy ng vn trong nc v quc t nh tri phiu Chnh ph vi li sut cao hn. Trong khi ngun vn chy vo quc gia cha bn vng, d tr ngoi hi li c xu hng thu hp lm gim kh nng chng ca nn kinh t trc cc c sc ti chnh v to p lc ln n cng v t gi.
Biu 5: Thc trng cn cn vng lai, cn cn vn ca Vit Nam t 2005 2012*

Ngun: IMF (*) S liu t 2011 n 2012 l s d bo Biu 6: T l thm ht ngn sch so ca Vit Nam t 2005 - 2010

Thm na, bi chi ngn sch ln v ko di (biu 6) buc Vit Nam phi vay n trn th trng trong v ngoi nc b p thm ht, h qu l mc n cng ca Vit Nam cng gia tng lin tc qua cc nm, gy tc ng xu n n nh kinh t v m, cht lng tng trng v ngha v tr n trong tng lai ca Chnh ph. Do vy, gim nguy c gia tng n cng, Chnh ph cn gia tng k lut ti kha, kim sot cht ch chi u t pht trin, thc hin qun l chi tiu c hiu qu, ng thi xc tin chng trnh c cu li chi NSNN theo hng: u tin p ng chi thng xuyn gn vi ci cch hnh chnh, tinh gin b my v ct gim th tc; chi u t pht trin hng vo thc y chuyn dch c cu kinh t; m bo chi tr n y , trong k hoch c th b tr tr n trc hn. Thc hin mc tiu ct gim thm ht NSNN thng qua gim t l chi NSNN so vi GDP, ct gim cc cng trnh u t khng l c thi gian u t di. thu hp thm ht ngn sch th song song vi vic gim chi tiu, Chnh ph cng cn ci thin v a dng ha cc ngun thu ngn sch, trnh tnh trng ngn sch ph thuc qu nhiu (ti hn 40%) vo cc ngun thu khng bn vng t du m v thu nhp khu nh hin nay. Ci cch chnh sch thu, c bit l thu bt ng sn, thu thu nhp c nhn vi tiu ch qun trit khng xy ra tnh trng trn thu, tht thu thu. Tuy nhin, vic thc thi chnh sch ti kho tht cht cng cn quan tm n cc yu t v m khc trn bnh din tng th nn kinh t, m quan trng l tnh pht trin bn vng trong di hn. Ngoi ra, trong di hn, Chnh ph cn nng cao nng lc cnh tranh ca nn kinh t. C th, Chnh ph cn ti cu trc nn kinh t gim thm ht cn cn thng mi; nng cao nng sut lao ng; ch trng hot ng o to, y t nhm nng cao cht lng ngun nhn lc, ci thin mc sng nhn dn, y mnh hp tc quc t v khu vc. Nng cao nng lc cnh tranh v uy tn ca quc gia l vn ti quan trng trong n cng. Nu ch n b mt uy tn, mt khon vay trung di hn c th tr thnh khon n ngn hn. N ngn hn gia tng t bin l nguy c tim n ca khng hong n quc gia - iu c th xy ti bt k nn kinh t no nu Chnh ph khng thit lp mt h thng qun l n cng hiu qu.n
1 Theo Ph Cc trng Cc Qun l n cng v Ti chnh i ngoi Hong Hi

TI LIU THAM KHO Ting Vit:

- Lut s 29/2009/QH12 Lut Qun l n cng 2009. - B Ti chnh (2010), Bn tin N nc ngoi s 6 - H ip (2010), Khng hong n cng th gii v kinh nghim cho Vit Nam: Nguy c v nhng khuyn co vi Vit Nam. c ti v ngy 20/03/2010 t http://vov.vn/Home/Bai-3Nguy-co-va-nhung-khuyen-caovoi-Viet-Nam/201012/161997.vov - GS.TS. Vng nh Hu, (2011), N cng v qun l n cng Vit Nam c ti v ngy 21/03/2011 t http://daibieunhandan.vn/default.aspx?tabid=75&NewsId=205619 - V Quang Vit, (2010), Liu Vit Nam tnh ng v n cng. c ti v ngy 06/04/2011 t http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/diendan/ykien/35495/ Ting Anh: - Gary A. Dymski, (2002), The internetional debt crisis.