Tata Steel BUY

Earnings bottoming out

Sector: Metals & Mining Sensex: CMP (Rs): Target price (Rs): Upside (%): 52 Week h/l (Rs): Market cap (Rscr) : 6m Avg vol (000Nos): No of o/s shares (mn): FV (Rs): Bloomberg code: Reuters code: BSE code: NSE code:
Prices as on 30 Mar, 2012

17,404 472 530 12.2 642 / 332 46,011 6,729 971 10 TATA IB TISC.BO 500470 TATASTEEL

Domestic operations, cash cow for the company Over the years, Tata Steels domestic operations have exhibited robust performance on the back of high raw material integration and superior product mix. Domestic steel product prices have increased by Rs1,5002,000/ton over the last three months. This coupled with a decline in coking coal costs and higher volumes would lead to margin expansion in Q4 FY12. The 2.9mtpa expansion is likely to be commissioned in April 12 and would require some time to stabilize and integrate the whole complex. We expect the new capacity to contribute additional 1mn tons of saleable steel each over the next two years. Stable steel prices, superior product mix coupled with lower coking coal prices yoy would lead to higher EBIDTA/ton in FY13. Standalone operation is expected to witness an EBIDTA CAGR of 20.6% over FY12-14. This would generate Rs162bn of operating cash flow over the same period, funding major part of the capex for its Odisha project. European operations to recover Steel spot prices in Europe have recovered US$70-80/ton since January. However, this would impact Tata Steels realisations only from March 12, as any change in spot prices impacts Tata Steels realisation with a lag. We expect realisations to increase by US$25/ton qoq in Q4 FY12. With an uptick in steel prices and a decline in raw material costs (both iron ore and coking coal), we believe the company would post positive EBIDTA in Q4 FY12. However, the performance would be restricted by one-offs like impairment charges and restructuring costs. On the back of various restructuring process, revival in European demand and higher steel prices yoy, we expect EBIDTA/ton to increase to US$50/ton in FY14. Maintain BUY; earnings to surge over FY12-14E We believe domestic operations would continue to be the earnings driver for Tata Steel over the next two years. Even though near term earnings in Corus would remain under pressure due to one-off items, we expect Corus to deliver steady EBIDTA/ton over FY13-14. We expect Tata Steel to report strong earnings over the next two years due to 1) impact of new 2.9mtpa capacity 2) impact of restructuring exercise in Europe 3) benefits from overseas raw material projects. After the recent correction in the stock over the last six months, Tata Steel is trading at a discount to its peers. We value the company on a SOTP basis and maintain our Buy rating with a revised nine-month price target of Rs530. Financial summary
Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) Revenues yoy growth (%) Operating profit OPM (%) Pre-exceptional PAT Reported PAT yoy growth (%) EPS (Rs) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Debt/Equity (x) ROE (%) ROCE (%) FY11 1,187,531 16.0 159,957 13.5 66,725 89,828 69.6 6.8 1.2 6.0 1.4 22.1 13.8 FY12E 1,337,766 12.7 125,562 9.4 22,052 57,652 (35.8) 22.7 20.8 1.1 7.7 1.2 5.7 8.6 FY13E 1,342,260 0.3 165,672 12.3 66,269 66,269 14.9 68.3 6.9 1.0 5.7 1.1 15.1 12.2 FY14E 1,458,650 8.7 209,725 14.4 94,195 94,195 42.1 97.0 4.9 0.9 4.5 0.9 18.8 15.6

Shareholding pattern December '11 Promoters Institutions Non promoter corp hold Public & others Performance rel. to sensex (%) Tata Steel JSW Steel SAIL JSPL 1m 2.7 (5.9) (3.8) (5.2) 3m 26.5 23.5 7.4 7.3 1yr (13.9) (13.0) (33.2) (12.2) (%) 30.7 41.7 3.6 24.0

Share price trend

110 100 90 80 70 60 50 Apr-11 Tata Steel Sensex

Aug-11

Dec-11

Apr-12

Research Analyst
Tarang Bhanushali
research@indiainfoline.com

Source: Company, India Infoline Research April 02, 2012

Tata Steel

We expect Tata Steel India to deliver 1.73mn tons in Q4 FY12, 7.7mn tons in FY13 and 8.8mn tons in FY14

Capacity expansion to lead to 15.8% volume CAGR over FY12-14E Tata Steel is expected to commission its 2.9mtpa steel plant in April 12 after conducting successful trials in March. The management expects the new plant to take some time for stabilization and integration of its capacities. As a result, they have guided for 1mn tons of saleable steel from the new capacity, lower than its previous guidance. We believe that the management guidance is a bit conservative given the minor delay in the commissioning of the steel plant. After the stabilization in FY13, we expect the plant to add a further 1mtpa in FY14, leading to a volume CAGR of 15.8% over the period FY12-14. We expect Tata Steel India to deliver 1.73mn tons in Q4 FY12, 7.7mn tons in FY13 and 8.8mn tons in FY14. Besides exporting to few countries, the company targets to sell incremental steel in the domestic market. This would be in the niche market of value added products, where it is already among the leaders. Tata Steel has not pushed back the Odisha project on account of the recent market conditions. Out of the total outlay of Rs160bn, the company has already spent Rs25bn of capex till date and is expected to spend ~50bn in FY13E. Blended steel realisations to remain flat over the next two years
(%) 25 20 15

Steel volumes to surge post H2 FY13

10 (mn tons) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E 5 0 Sales volume yoy chg

55,000 (Rs/ton) 50,000

Blended realisations

yoy chg (%)

20 15 10 5

45,000
10

0 (5)

40,000

(10) (15)

35,000 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

(20)

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Steel players in India had hiked flat steel product prices by Rs1,000/ton each since Jan 12

We expect average blended steel realizations to decline 2% yoy in FY13 and then strengthen 3% yoy in FY14

Steel prices remain flat to positive Steel players in India had hiked flat steel product prices by Rs1,000/ton each since Jan 12. However, due to subdued market conditions and some resistance from the consumers, the steel players have reduced prices over the last one month. In the case of long product category, the increase in steel prices has been steady and has been accepted by the market. Indian long steel prices have risen by Rs1,500-2,000/ton in Q4 FY12 due to improving demand from the infrastructure space and production cuts taken by the smaller players. On account of the high iron ore and coal costs, small steel players have taken production cuts as it has become unviable to them to operate. This would help the larger producers in gaining market share and maintain prices at current levels. We expect steel prices to decline marginally during the year on the back of lower raw material costs and subdued demand. The impact of lower steel prices globally would be reduced due to the increase in import duty on HRC and the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar. The commissioning of new capacities during the year would also add to the pressure on steel prices in the domestic market. We expect average blended steel realizations to decline 2% yoy in FY13 and then strengthen 3% yoy in FY14. 2

Company Report

Tata Steel

In Q4 FY12, we expect EBIDTA/ton to expand on the back of higher steel prices and lower coking coal costs

Margins to remain steady in FY13E Tata Steel reported an EBITDA of US$491mn in Q3 FY12, 22.6% lower on a yoy basis and 13.9% on a qoq basis. The decline was accentuated due to a sharp decline in the rupee and also due to a forex loss of US$53mn, primarily on the back of forward coking coal contracts. Adjusted for US$53mn of realized forex losses, EBITDA/ton stood at US$334/ton. Better than expected performance in ferro-alloy division and higher than expected realizations transpired to higher adjusted EBITDA for the quarter. In Q4 FY12, we expect EBIDTA/ton to expand on the back of higher steel prices and lower coking coal costs. The impact of higher steel prices would be more visible in Q1 FY13. We expect average blended realizations to increase Rs1,000/ton in Q4 FY12. Lower coking coal prices and higher volumes would also lead to lower cost of production, resulting into a Rs2,000 expansion in EBIDTA/ton in Q4 FY12. Coking coal prices have declined 40% from its peak in the last one year due to a surge in Chinese production and a decline in Asian demand. Coking coal contracts for Q4 FY12 were agreed at US$235/ton, down from US$330/ton in Q1 FY12. The decline is expected to continue going ahead as spot prices are already at US$205-210/ton and we expect Q1 FY13 contracts to be agreed at US$206/ton. We estimate average contract prices for coking coal to decline 23% this year to US$221/ton amid weaker import demand and an increase in output from Australia. We expect EBIDTA/ton to remain flat on yoy basis in FY13 as the impact of lower realizations would be offset by lower raw material costs. The leverage of higher volumes would be felt in FY14 as the new capacity ramps up production. This combined with higher steel prices and lower conversion costs would result into an 8% yoy increase in EBIDTA/ton in FY14. Operating profit in FY13 is expected to increase by 17% yoy to Rs137.8bn in FY13 and 24% yoy to Rs171bn in FY14. Operating profit to surge over FY12-14E on the higher volumes and margins
180 160 (Rs bn) Operating profit OPM (%) 42

Coking coal prices have declined 40% from its peak in the last one year due to a surge in Chinese production and a decline in Asian demand

We expect EBIDTA/ton to remain flat on yoy basis in FY13 as the impact of lower realizations would be offset by lower raw material costs

EBIDTA/ton to remain flat in FY13E

20,000

(Rs/ton)

17,500

140 120 100 80 60

39

15,000

36

12,500

40 20

33

10,000 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

30

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Company Report

Tata Steel

The management expects FY12 sales volume to be 13.8-13.9mn tons, lower than the 14.9mn tons achieved in FY11

We expect deliveries to be marginally lower yoy at 13.5mn tons in FY13 and increase 5.1% yoy to 14.2mn tons in FY14

Europe volumes to decline marginally in FY13E In Europe, Tata Steel has managed to sell 10.33mn tons in 9M FY12, lower by 3.5% yoy. The management guides Q4 FY12 volumes to be marginally higher than Q3 FY12 levels. The management expects FY12 sales volume to be 13.8-13.9mn tons, lower than the 14.9mn tons achieved in FY11. It expects volumes to decline further in FY13 due to the maintenance shutdown of Port Talbot (2mtpa capacity) in H1 FY13. The loss of volume in H1 FY13 from the unit would be compensated by an increase in capacity at Port Talbot in H2 FY13. We expect deliveries to be marginally lower yoy at 13.5mn tons in FY13 and increase 5.1% yoy to 14.2mn tons in FY14. Steel prices in Europe have recovered from the lows in Q4 FY12. Spot steel prices have gained US$70-80/ton since January, which would lead to higher average realizations for the steel companies in Europe. Over the last fortnight CIS Black Sea Export (fob) prices jumped 8% to US$678/ton. However, the impact of improved spot realisations would be felt on Tata Steels realisations only from March 12. Historically, the change in spot prices is seen with a lag on Tata Steels realisation. We expect ASPs to increase US$25/ton qoq in Q4 FY12. In FY13, we estimate average steel prices to remain lower on a yoy basis on account of a decline in raw material costs. Both, iron ore and coking coal, prices are expected to be lower on a yoy basis in FY13. ASPs to decline yoy led by lower raw material prices
1,250 1,200 (US$/ton)

Spot steel prices have gained US$7080/ton since January

FY13E volumes to decline marginally

25 ( mn tons)

20 1,150 1,100 15 1,050 10 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E 1,000 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

On the back of various restructuring processes initiated by the company in FY12, revival in European demand and higher steel prices yoy, we expect EBIDTA/ton to increase to US$50/ton in FY14

EBIDTA/ton to improve on the back of lower raw material costs Tata Steel Europe in Q3 FY12 reported an EBIDTA loss of US$147mn. However, adjusted for US$143mn of losses on back of provisions for net realizable value, EBITDA loss stood at US$4mn, which was higher than our estimate. The provisions were due to a combination of inventory write down (largely raw materials) and lower spot prices during the quarter. In Q4 FY12, with an uptick in steel prices since January 12 and a decline in raw material costs (both iron ore and coking coal), we believe the company would post positive EBIDTA during the quarter. However, the performance would be impacted by one-offs like impairment charges and restructuring costs. The company has reduced its manpower from 7,223 to 6,683 at the end of December 11 and is expected to reduce it further to 5,750 by FY12-end. We expect EBIDTA/ton to be US$30/ton in Q4 FY12 and remain around this level for FY13. On the back of various restructuring processes initiated by the company in FY12, revival in European demand and higher steel prices yoy, we expect EBIDTA/ton to increase to US$50/ton in FY14. 4

Company Report

Tata Steel

Adjusted EBIDTA/ton US$30/ton in Q4 FY12

100 70 40 10 (20) (US$/ton)

expected

to

be

Adjusted EBIDTA/ton to jump to US$46/ton in FY14E

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 (US$/ton)

Q4 FY12E

Q3 FY10

Q4 FY10

Q1 FY11

Q2 FY11

Q3 FY11

Q4 FY11

Q1 FY12

Q2 FY12

Q3 FY12

(20) (40) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Tata Steel reported a net surplus of GBP90mn, down GBP257mn from FY11

A thorough analysis and valuation of the assets and liabilities of the pension fund is due towards the end of Q1 FY13

Pension fund obligation impact to be felt in H1 FY13 Over the last two quarters, market participants have been sceptical on the pension fund at Tata Steel Europe. Market expected the pension fund at Tata Steel Europe to move into a deficit during the Q3 FY12. Tata Steel reported a net surplus of GBP90mn, down GBP257mn from FY11. Given the huge size of the pension fund (GBP16.8bn for BSPS), a pension fund deficit continues to remain one of key concerns for the company over the next two quarters. A thorough analysis and valuation of the assets and liabilities of the pension fund is due towards the end of Q1 FY13. The management maintains that there will not be any immediate cash impact if at all the pension fund moves into a deficit. The company is in negotiations with the trustees to spread the funding over the next few years. We believe, over the next six months some cash infusion by the company would be required to fund the Pension fund deficit. Tata Steel Pension Surplus
(GBP mn) Total scheme retirement benefit assets Total scheme retirement benefit liabilities Net Pension Surplus (BSPS & SPH)
Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Mar-11 16,090 (15,743) 347

Jun-11 16,401 (16,051) 350

Sep-11 16,164 (16,058) 106

Dec-11 16,817 (16,727) 90

Pension asset composition - BSPS

Equity securities 100 80 60 40 20 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 (%) Real estate Corporate bond Gilts Cash

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Company Report

Tata Steel

TSEA reported an EBITDA loss of US$2mn in Q3 FY12, largely due to some one-off events The management expects TSEA operations to normalize in forthcoming quarters as the operations in Thailand would be back to normal and postflood reconstruction activities would increase demand

South East Asian operations to normalize Tata Steels South East Asian (TSEA) operations have delivered below par numbers in FY12 on account of a slowdown in the construction sector and political tensions in the region. The floods in Thailand accentuated the situation further in Q3 FY12. TSEA reported an EBITDA loss of US$2mn in Q3 FY12, largely due to some one-off events. Losses at Thailand widened sequentially on the back of write down on inventory and deferred tax assets on account of reduction in corporate tax rate. The management expects TSEA operations to normalize in forthcoming quarters as the operations in Thailand would be back to normal and post-flood reconstruction activities would increase demand. International mining operations to contribute from H2 FY13 To integrate its European operations and provide some stability to its earnings, Tata Steel has been investing into raw material resources globally. For its iron ore requirement, Tata Steel has steadily increased its equity share in New Millennium Capital Corporation (NML) to 27.4%. NML engages in the exploration and development of iron ore properties and controls iron ore mineral resources. Along with this, Tata Steel also has 80% interest in NMLs Direct Shipping Ore project (DSO Project) in exchange for covering the first C$300mn of expenses and its share of any future expenses. The project has proven and probable direct shipping quality iron ore reserves of ~64mn tons. The company has 100% of the offtake rights for the DSO project and is expected to commence operations by end-FY13. The project is expected to produce 1mtpa of 64.5% sinter feed in its first year of operations before being ramped up to 4mpta. After selling its stake in Riversdale, Tata Steel still holds 35% stake in a coal venture in the Tete province of Mozambique (Benga Project). The company has 40% offtake rights of the total output. Benga project has total coal reserves of 4bn tons. Construction of Stage 1 (ROM 5.3mtpa) has commenced and is set to be completed in H2 2012. We expect coking coal production from the Benga Project to be lower than the management guidance of 1mn tons in 2012. Maintain BUY; earnings to surge over FY12-14E We believe domestic operations would continue to be the earnings driver for Tata Steel over the next two years. Even though near term earnings in Corus would remain under pressure due to one-off items, we expect Corus to deliver steady EBIDTA/ton over FY13-14. We expect Tata Steel to report strong earnings over the next two years due to 1) impact of new 2.9mtpa capacity 2) impact of restructuring exercise in Europe 3) benefits from overseas raw material projects. After the recent correction in the stock over the last six months, Tata Steel is trading at a discount to its peers. We had earlier valued the stock at a 5.5x EV/EBITDA multiple on its consolidated business, while now we value the Indian business at a 6.5x EV/EBITDA multiple and the European business at 4.5x, which we believe is justified as the Indian operation is self-sufficient in terms of raw materials (100% iron ore and 50% coking) and deserves a decent premium vis--vis Corus, which is not self sufficient. We maintain our Buy rating with a revised nine-month price target of Rs530.

The project is expected to produce 1mtpa of 64.5% sinter feed in its first year of operations before being ramped up to 4mpta

We expect coking coal production from the Benga Project to be lower than the management guidance of 1mn tons in 2012

Company Report

Tata Steel

Financials
Income statement
Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) Revenue Operating profit Depreciation Interest expense Other income Profit before tax Taxes Minority and other Adj. profit Exceptional items Net profit FY11 1,187,531 159,957 (44,148) (27,700) 9,810 97,918 (32,459) 1,266 66,725 23,102 89,828 FY12E 1,337,766 125,562 (47,974) (30,417) 9,123 56,295 (35,610) 1,368 22,052 35,600 57,652 FY13E 1,342,260 165,672 (51,442) (27,649) 10,123 96,704 (31,912) 1,477 66,269 66,269 FY14E 1,458,650 209,725 (54,911) (26,959) 10,353 138,209 (45,609) 1,595 94,195 94,195

Key ratios
Y/e 31 Mar Growth matrix (%) Revenue growth Op profit growth EBIT growth Adj profit growth FY11 16.0 98.9 165.2 FY12E 12.7 (21.5) (31.0) (67.0) FY13E 0.3 31.9 43.4 200.5 FY14E 8.7 26.6 32.8 42.1

Balance sheet
Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) Equity capital Reserves Net worth Minority interest Debt Def tax liab (net) Total liabilities Fixed assets Intangible assets Investments Deferred tax Net wrkg cap Inventories Debtors Oth curr assets Creditors Oth curr liab Cash Total assets FY11 9,587 355,021 364,608 8,889 621,843 21,882 1,017,222 523,934 152,982 78,473 1,756 151,151 240,552 148,163 100,045 (253,157) (84,453) 108,926 1,017,222 FY12E 9,707 404,096 413,804 10,257 555,139 22,319 1,001,519 580,960 152,982 53,073 1,756 170,189 270,985 166,907 100,032 (285,184) (82,551) 42,559 1,001,519 FY13E 9,707 453,801 463,509 11,734 531,185 22,766 1,029,193 619,518 152,982 53,073 1,756 163,193 271,895 167,468 100,032 (286,142) (90,060) 38,670 1,029,193 FY14E 9,707 528,120 537,827 13,329 517,928 23,221 1,092,305 654,607 152,982 53,073 1,756 190,450 295,472 181,989 100,040 (310,954) (76,096) 39,436 1,092,305

Profitability ratios (%) OPM 13.5 EBIT margin 10.6 Net profit margin 5.6 RoCE 13.8 RoNW 22.1 RoA 5.4 Per share ratios EPS DPS Cash EPS BVPS Valuation ratios (x) P/E P/CEPS P/B EV/EBIDTA Payout (%) Dividend payout Tax payout Liquidity ratios Debtor days Inventory days Creditor days Leverage ratios Interest coverage Net debt / equity Net debt / op. profit

9.4 6.5 1.6 8.6 5.7 1.6

12.3 9.3 4.9 12.2 15.1 4.8

14.4 11.3 6.5 15.6 18.8 6.5

69.6 12.0 115.6 380.3

22.7 14.2 72.1 426.3

68.3 17.1 121.3 477.5

97.0 20.5 153.6 554.0

6.8 4.1 1.2 6.0

20.8 6.5 1.1 7.7

6.9 3.9 1.0 5.7

4.9 3.1 0.9 4.5

17.2 33.1

62.6 63.3

25.0 33.0

21.1 33.0

46 74 78

46 74 78

46 74 78

46 74 78

Cash flow statement

Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) Profit before tax Depreciation Tax paid Working capital Op cashflow Capital exp Free cash flow Equity raised Investments Debt financing/disposal Dividends paid Other items Net in cash FY11 97,918 44,148 (32,459) (80,178) 29,429 (117,688) (88,259) 46,262 (24,296) 90,840 (11,503) 28,003 41,048 FY12E 56,295 47,974 (35,610) (19,038) 49,620 (105,000) (55,380) 5,346 25,400 (66,704) (13,803) 38,773 (66,367) FY13E 96,704 51,442 (31,912) 6,996 123,230 (90,000) 33,230 (23,955) (16,564) 3,401 (3,888) FY14E 138,209 54,911 (45,609) (27,257) 120,253 (90,000) 30,253 (13,257) (19,876) 3,646 766

4.5 1.4 3.2

2.9 1.2 4.1

4.5 1.1 3.0

6.1 0.9 2.3

Du-Pont Analysis
Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) Tax burden (x) Interest burden (x) EBIT margin (x) Asset turnover (x) Financial leverage (x) RoE (%) FY11 0.68 0.78 0.11 0.97 4.06 22.1 FY12E 0.39 0.65 0.06 0.98 3.50 5.7 FY13E 0.69 0.78 0.09 0.97 3.16 15.1 FY14E 0.68 0.84 0.11 1.01 2.88 18.8

Company Report

Recommendation parameters for fundamental reports: Buy Absolute return of over +10% Market Performer Absolute return between -10% to +10% Sell Absolute return below -10%

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