Qun tr Ri ro

Th.S Trn Quang Trung 1

1
QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO
Ging vin: Ging vin: Ging vin: Ging vin:
Trn Quang Trung Trn Quang Trung Trn Quang Trung Trn Quang Trung
2
Mc tiu mn hc Mc tiu mn hc Mc tiu mn hc Mc tiu mn hc
Kt thc chng trnh ny ngi hc c th:
Lu nhiu hn cc vn c yu t ri ro
Nhn bit v phn loi cc ri ro ca n v
p dng mt s k thut nh gi ri ro
Thit k chng trnh kim sot v ti tr cho ri
ro ca n v
Hon thin cc k nng phn tch, truyn t, trnh
by, lm vic nhm, v nng lc t hc
3
Ri ro l g?
Cu Cn Th, Vin KHXH sp Cu Cn Th, Vin KHXH sp Cu Cn Th, Vin KHXH sp Cu Cn Th, Vin KHXH sp
Dch cm gia cm, 3MCPD, heo tai xanh Dch cm gia cm, 3MCPD, heo tai xanh Dch cm gia cm, 3MCPD, heo tai xanh Dch cm gia cm, 3MCPD, heo tai xanh
Gi Gi Gi Gi xng du, nguyn v xng du, nguyn v xng du, nguyn v xng du, nguyn vt liu bin ng liu bin ng liu bin ng liu bin ng
Th trng a c, th trng chng khon Th trng a c, th trng chng khon Th trng a c, th trng chng khon Th trng a c, th trng chng khon
nng lnh bt thng nng lnh bt thng nng lnh bt thng nng lnh bt thng
Li sut, gi vng thay i lin tc Li sut, gi vng thay i lin tc Li sut, gi vng thay i lin tc Li sut, gi vng thay i lin tc
4
CC KHI NIM C BN CC KHI NIM C BN CC KHI NIM C BN CC KHI NIM C BN
Gi tr ti sn
(triu ng)
Xc sut
Khng c
ha hon
1,000 0.75
C ha hon 200 0.25
Gi tr ti sn
trung bnh
800
Tn tht
trung bnh
200
5
CC KHI NIM C BN CC KHI NIM C BN CC KHI NIM C BN CC KHI NIM C BN
Him ha Him ha Him ha Him ha
Ri ro (risk) Ri ro (risk) Ri ro (risk) Ri ro (risk)
Ngi mo him (risk Ngi mo him (risk Ngi mo him (risk Ngi mo him (risk- -- -taker) taker) taker) taker)
Ngi ngi ri ro (risk Ngi ngi ri ro (risk Ngi ngi ri ro (risk Ngi ngi ri ro (risk- -- -averse) averse) averse) averse)
Gi ca ri ro (risk premium) Gi ca ri ro (risk premium) Gi ca ri ro (risk premium) Gi ca ri ro (risk premium)
Ph bo him (insurance premium) Ph bo him (insurance premium) Ph bo him (insurance premium) Ph bo him (insurance premium)
6
Ri ro l g?
Ri ro tn ti khi iu bn khng mun n xy ra
cui cng c c hi xy ra!!!
Kh nng mt s kin no s gy ra mt
kt cc khng mong i
trn tnh hnh ti chnh ca cng ty hay
cn tr cng ty t mc tiu nh
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 2
7
Ri ro
Php l
Ri ro
Gi c
Ri ro
Mi trng
- T vong
- Thng tt
- Bt ng
- Tai ha
Ri ro
Sn xut
Ri ro
gun
nhn lc
Ri ro
Ti chnh
Ri ro
Quan h
Cng ng
Tnh hnh Ti chnh
Mc tiu
cng ty
Cc loi ri ro
Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn
Ri ro
Cng ngh
Ri ro
D n
8
Ri ro chin lc Ri ro chin lc Ri ro chin lc Ri ro chin lc cc mc tiu chin lc & cc iu
kin v th trng ton cu, kinh t, chnh tr
Ri ro ti chnh Ri ro ti chnh Ri ro ti chnh Ri ro ti chnh tin t, li sut, ri ro thanh khon & tn
dng
Ri ro vn hnh Ri ro vn hnh Ri ro vn hnh Ri ro vn hnh ri ro lin quan n h thng, quy
trnh, cng ngh & con ngi
Ri ro tun th Ri ro tun th Ri ro tun th Ri ro tun th quy nh & lut php
Ri ro danh ting Ri ro danh ting Ri ro danh ting Ri ro danh ting thit hi cho nhn hiu
Ngn ng mi ca Ri ro
Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn
9
Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn
Qun tr Ri ro l g?
Bn cng khng bit v Bn cng khng bit v Bn cng khng bit v Bn cng khng bit v
Tt c cc kt cc tim nng Tt c cc kt cc tim nng Tt c cc kt cc tim nng Tt c cc kt cc tim nng
Kh nng xy ra Kh nng xy ra Kh nng xy ra Kh nng xy ra
Chi ph ca cc kt cc ny Chi ph ca cc kt cc ny Chi ph ca cc kt cc ny Chi ph ca cc kt cc ny
Ri ro cng tng Ri ro cng tng Ri ro cng tng Ri ro cng tng
10
Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn
Qun tr Ri ro l g?
Ni cch khc:
Bn cng bit v hiu v
Tt c cc kt cc tim nng
Kh nng xy ra
Chi ph ca cc kt cc ny
Bn cng c kh nng l
mt nh qun tr ri ro gii
11
Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn
Qun tr Ri ro l g?
m bo kt cc
12
Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn
Ch trng vo nng lc t mc tiu trong
tng lai bng cch nhn dng v ra quyt
nh qun l cc ri ro.
Qu trnh thng xuyn nh gi, ra quyt
nh v thc hin, phi hp vi cc hot ng
qun l.
Qun tr Ri ro l g?
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 3
13
Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn
S dng cc cng c nh phn tch an ton
lao ng, quy trnh kim sot, s thay i
sn phm / chin lc, nghin cu / ti sn
tr tu kim sot, loi b hay gim ri ro.
Qun tr Ri ro l g?
14
Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn Qun tr Ri ro cn bn
Ai chu trch nhim qun l ri ro? Ai chu trch nhim qun l ri ro? Ai chu trch nhim qun l ri ro? Ai chu trch nhim qun l ri ro?
Ri ro th hin qua mi b phn, lnh vc chuyn
mn, c nhn, v hot ng trong t chc.
Mi ngi u c trch nhim!
Trch nhim qun tr ri ro khng th chuyn giao Trch nhim qun tr ri ro khng th chuyn giao Trch nhim qun tr ri ro khng th chuyn giao Trch nhim qun tr ri ro khng th chuyn giao
hoc thu ngoi! hoc thu ngoi! hoc thu ngoi! hoc thu ngoi!
15
Qun tr ri ro l
quyt nh c nhn
Khng c mt quyt nh "ng"
Quyt nh "ng" ty thuc vo c tnh ca
Hot ng
C nhn quyt nh
Ri ro
Li nhun
1
2
3
16
QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO
Qun tr ri ro tt khng
ngn c cc iu ti t
xy ra.
Nhng khi nhng iu ti
t xy ra, qun tr ri ro tt
d bo c v gim
thiu cc nh hng tiu
cc ca chng
17
QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO
Ri ro ln nht l khng
bit tt c cc ri ro
Vn ln nht c nhiu
ri ro nm ngoi tm kim
sot ca bn
18
QUN TR RI RO
4 NGUYN TC
1. Khng chp nhn cc
ri ro khng cn thit.
2. Ra cc quyt nh ri ro
cp thch hp.
3. Chp nhn ri ro khi li
ch nhiu hn chi ph.
4. Kt hp qun tr ri ro
vo vn hnh v hoch
nh mi cp.
Ri ro
Li ch
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 4
19 20
QUY TRNH QUY TRNH QUY TRNH QUY TRNH
QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO
1. Nhn dng tt c cc s kin ri ro
lin quan c th cn tr vic t cc
mc tiu ra
2. nh gi tng ri ro da trn xc sut
v nh hng, ri xp hng u tin t
cao xung thp
21
QUY TRNH QUY TRNH QUY TRNH QUY TRNH
QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO
3. nh gi cc bin php kim sot cho
tng ri ro theo
Hiu qu
Chi ph
4. X l tng ri ro bt u t u tin
cao nht
22
5. Truyn t chin lc qun tr ri
ro n t chc
6. Gim st cc s c v cc ch bo
pht sinh ri ro tim nng khc
7. nh k xem li chin lc qun tr
ri ro
QUY TRNH QUY TRNH QUY TRNH QUY TRNH
QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO QUN TR RI RO
23
QUN TR RI RO
QUY TRNH 6 BC
1. Nhn ra
Him ha
2. nh gi
Ri ro
3. Phn tch
cc cng c
Kim sot
ri ro
4. Ra
quyt nh
Kim sot
5. Thc hin
Kim sot
Ri ro
6. Gim st
v Xem li
24
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 1. NHN DNG HIM HA
Mc ch l nhn ra cc him ha cng nhiu
cng tt.
Him ha l bt k iu kin tim nng hay thc
t no c th lm suy gim s mng, gy ra tn
thng, bnh tt, t vong hay thit hi ti sn.
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 5
25
QUN TR RI RO
CNG C NHN DNG HIM HA
Cng Cng Cng Cng c c c c Mc ch Mc ch Mc ch Mc ch Phng php Phng php Phng php Phng php
Phn tch vn Phn tch vn Phn tch vn Phn tch vn
hnh hnh hnh hnh
Hiu cc dng s kin. S khi, biu pht trin,
hay m t vn hnh theo thi
gian
Phn tch him Phn tch him Phn tch him Phn tch him
ha s cp ha s cp ha s cp ha s cp
Thm d nhanh tt c
cc bc trong vn
hnh.
Xem xt cc ngun him ha,
thng lin quan n nng
lng
Phn Phn Phn Phn tch tch tch tch Nu Nu Nu Nu - -- -
th th th th
Nm cc yu t u vo
v nhn lc, vn hnh
trong mi trng.
K thut ng no theo nhm.
Nu iu ny xy ra th sao?
26
QUN TR RI RO
CNG C NHN DNG HIM HA
Cng Cng Cng Cng c c c c Mc ch Mc ch Mc ch Mc ch Phng php Phng php Phng php Phng php
X l tnh X l tnh X l tnh X l tnh
hung hung hung hung
Tng tng v hnh dung ra
cc him ha bt thng.
Dng phn tch vn hnh,
hnh dung dng cc s
kin.
Biu Logic Biu Logic Biu Logic Biu Logic Thm cc chi tit chnh xc
vo qu trnh bng cc cy
biu .
Ba loi biu - tch cc,
tiu cc, v s c ri ro.
Phn tch s Phn tch s Phn tch s Phn tch s
thay i thay i thay i thay i
Khm ph cc gi t him
ha v cc thay i c
hoch nh cng nh khng
c hoch nh.
So snh tnh trng hin
nay v trc y.
27
S ph thuc bn ngoi
Suppliers
Subcontractors
Vendors
Your
Organization
Clients /
Customers
Conduit
Organizations
Ph thuc h tng (in, in thoi,)
H thng (my tnh, d liu, mng,)
Cc t chc
truyn thng
Khch hng
Cng ty Nh thu ph
Nh cung cp
i din
bn hng
28
M hnh 5 p lc ca Porter
29
PEST
Gip hiu bc tranh
ton cc v mi trng
hat ng ca cng ty
Cch lm:
ng no nhn ra
cc yu t trong bn
bn cnh
Tho lun, quyt nh
cc yu t nh hng
ng k n hot ng
ca cng ty
Chnh tr Kinh t
X hi Cng ngh
30
HAZOP
S dng trong giai on u ca qu trnh
thit k xc nh cc him ha tim nng
lin quan n thit k
Cch lm:
Phn r h thng, sn phm, k hoch thnh tng
b phn
Kho st tng tc gia cc b phn
Phn tch kt ni gia cc b phn mt cch h
thng, xc nh yu t u vo, tnh cht ca n,
v kt qu sai lch tim nng
Ghi li cc nguyn nhn gy sai lch
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 6
31
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 2. NH GI RI RO
Ri ro: kh nng xy ra mc nghim trng.
Chi ph n.
nh gi: o lng nh tnh nh lng.
Ma trn nh gi ri ro: sp xp u tin.
Quy Quy Quy Quy trnh trnh trnh trnh chung chung chung chung ca ca ca ca
cc cc cc cc phng phng phng phng php php php php nh nh nh nh gi gi gi gi ri ri ri ri ro ro ro ro
Nhn dng cc him ha v tn tht tim
nng lin quan n sn phm hay quy
trnh
Nhn dng ri ro ca sn phm v xp
hng mc nghim trng
Nhn dng nguyn nhn v xp hng kh
nng xy ra
Ma trn mc ri ro phn bit cc ri ro
c th chp nhn vi ri ro khng th chp
nhn da trn nghim trng ca tn
tht v kh nng tn tht xy ra
Xp hng ri ro trong tng th cho mi ri
ro tim nng c nhn ra
Quy Quy Quy Quy trnh trnh trnh trnh chung chung chung chung ca ca ca ca
cc cc cc cc phng phng phng phng php php php php nh nh nh nh gi gi gi gi ri ri ri ri ro ro ro ro
34
Kh nng xy ra? Quy trnh ca bn Mc
Him khi xy ra s trnh hay gim thiu ri ro ny mt
cch hiu qu da trn cc thc hnh tiu
chun
1;2
Kh nng thp thng gim thiu ri ro ny vi s sut
rt t trong nhng trng hp tng t
3;4
C th xy ra c th gim thiu ri ro ny, nhng c khi
cn phi vn hnh theo nhiu hng
5;6
Kh nng cao khng th gim thiu ri ro ny, nhng
quy trnh khc th c th
7 - 9
Gn nh chc
chn
khng th gim thiu ri ro ny, khng c
quy trnh no c sn
10
Thang Thang Thang Thang o o o o nh nh nh nh tnh tnh tnh tnh cho cho cho cho kh kh kh kh nng nng nng nng xy xy xy xy ra ra ra ra
35
Thc hin K hoch lm vic Chi ph Mc
Khng c hoc nh
hng t
nh hng t, thay i
nh, b p bng d
phng c sn
Cha vt ch tiu chi
ph
1;2
thp
Gim nh thc hin
k thut, quy trnh
vn duy tr
Cn cc hot ng b
sung, c th kp cc
thi im quan trng
Chi ph c lng
vt ch tiu t 1-5%
3;4
th yu
Gim va phi thc
hin k thut, nhng
c th hi phc
L k hoch th yu,
s tr cc mc th yu
Chi ph c lng
vt ch tiu t 5-20%
5;6
trung
bnh
Gim st ng k
thc hin k thut,
hi phc kh khn
nh hng n ng
gng ca chng trnh
Chi ph c lng
vt ch tiu t 20-
50%
7-9
ng
k
Mc tiu k thut
khng th t n
Khng th t cc ct
mc quan trng
Chi ph c lng
vt ch tiu trn 50%
10
cao
Thang Thang Thang Thang o o o o nh nh nh nh tnh tnh tnh tnh cho cho cho cho mc mc mc mc nghim nghim nghim nghim trng trng trng trng
36
QUN TR RI RO
CC MC NH GI RI RO
Mc nghim trng Mc nghim trng Mc nghim trng Mc nghim trng
Thm khc Nhim v tht bi hon ton, t vong, hay mt mt h
thng.
5
Nghim trng nh hng nhim v ch yu, tn thng nng, bnh
tt ngh nghip, hay h hng h thng chnh.
4
Nhiu nh hng nhim v chnh, tn thng, bnh tt ngh
nghip nh, hay h hng h thng ph.
3
t nh hng nhim v t quan trng, tn thng, bnh
tt ngh nghip nh, hay h hng h thng ph.
2
Khng ng
k
nh hng nhim v rt t, tn thng, bnh tt ngh
nghip nh, hay h hng h thng ph.
1
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 7
37
QUN TR RI RO
CC MC NH GI RI RO
Kh nng xy ra Kh nng xy ra Kh nng xy ra Kh nng xy ra
Thng xuyn Xy ra lin tc trong vng i ca thit b/cng vic 5
C th xy ra Xy ra nhiu ln trong vng i ca thit b/cng
vic
4
Thnh thong i khi xy ra trong vng i ca thit b/cng vic 3
Him khi C hi xy ra rt t trong vng i ca thit b/cng
vic
2
Rt kh xy ra C th xem nh khng xy ra trong vng i ca
thit b/cng vic
1
38
Kh Kh Kh Kh nng xy ra nng xy ra nng xy ra nng xy ra
Thng
xuyn
D xy
ra
Thnh
thang
Him khi Kh xy
ra
A AA A B BB B C CC C D DD D E EE E
Thm khc I II I 5 55 5 5 55 5 4 44 4 3 33 3 3 33 3
Nghim trng II II II II 5 55 5 5 55 5 4 44 4 3 33 3 2 22 2
Nhiu III III III III 5 55 5 4 44 4 3 33 3 2 22 2 2 22 2
t IV IV IV IV 4 44 4 3 33 3 2 22 2 2 22 2 1 11 1
Khng ng k V VV V 4 44 4 3 33 3 2 22 2 2 22 2 1 11 1
1
2
3 4
5
6
QUN TR RI RO
MA TRN NH GI RI RO
39
Th t u tin gii quyt Th t u tin gii quyt Th t u tin gii quyt Th t u tin gii quyt
K
h

n
g

x

y

r
a
Mc nghim trng
Hnh ng
nu hiu qu
v chi ph
Khng cn
hnh ng
Hnh ng
ngay
Yu cu
hnh ng
t Thm khc
Cao
Thp
Source: Dr. Geoff Benson, NorthCarolina State University
Ma Ma Ma Ma trn trn trn trn nh nh nh nh gi gi gi gi ri ri ri ri ro ro ro ro
1 1 3 3 2 1 5 4 19
2 3 1 2 1 3 4 2 16
3 1 3 4 1 3 2 1 15
4 3 3 1 3 3 3 1 17
5 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 14
6 5 2 1 1 1 2 2 14
7 2 1 3 3 5 2 5 21
8 1 3 1 3 1 1 5 15
9 4 3 5 1 4 1 3 21
10 2 2 1 2 4 2 1 14
11 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 11
12 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 9
13 1 1 3 2 1 1 2 11
14 1 5 1 5 5 2 3 22
15 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 15
16 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 13
17 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 9
O LNG RI RO O LNG RI RO O LNG RI RO O LNG RI RO
CC PHNG PHP NH LNG
Phng php khai trin tn tht
Phng php khai trin tn tht da
trn i tng ri ro
c lng chnh xc
PHNG PHP PHNG PHP PHNG PHP PHNG PHP
KHAI TRIN TN THT KHAI TRIN TN THT KHAI TRIN TN THT KHAI TRIN TN THT
H s khai trin k nm =
Tng khiu ni / S khiu ni pht
sinh sau k nm
S dng h s khai trin c
lng tng s khiu ni
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 8

So nam tInb He so kbaI trIen = Tong kbIeu
tu dau ky naI / So kbIeu naI da pbat sInb

1 3.33
2 1.57
3 1.19
4 1.08
5 1.05
6 1.04
7 1.03
8 1.02
9 1.01
10 1.00

H S KHAI TRIN H S KHAI TRIN H S KHAI TRIN H S KHAI TRIN
S DNG H S KHAI TRIN S DNG H S KHAI TRIN S DNG H S KHAI TRIN S DNG H S KHAI TRIN
C LNG TNG KHIU NI C LNG TNG KHIU NI C LNG TNG KHIU NI C LNG TNG KHIU NI
KHAI TRIN TN THT KHAI TRIN TN THT KHAI TRIN TN THT KHAI TRIN TN THT
DA TRN I TNG RI RO DA TRN I TNG RI RO DA TRN I TNG RI RO DA TRN I TNG RI RO
Ngh Ngh Ngh Ngh
nghip nghip nghip nghip
H s H s H s H s
quy i quy i quy i quy i
Nhu cu Nhu cu Nhu cu Nhu cu
nm ti nm ti nm ti nm ti
S n v S n v S n v S n v
c lng c lng c lng c lng
Xy dng Xy dng Xy dng Xy dng 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 233.4 233.4 233.4 233.4 233.4 233.4 233.4 233.4
V.phng V.phng V.phng V.phng 13.33 13.33 13.33 13.33 63.5 63.5 63.5 63.5 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
c cng c cng c cng c cng 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
Qun l Qun l Qun l Qun l 6.55 6.55 6.55 6.55 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
H tr H tr H tr H tr 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 55.2 55.2 55.2 55.2 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9
Tng Tng Tng Tng 271.6 271.6 271.6 271.6
C LNG C LNG C LNG C LNG
CHNH XC CHNH XC CHNH XC CHNH XC
Maximum probable cost MPC
Dung sai ri ro
MPC = Tn tht trung bnh + t*
lch chun
C LNG C LNG C LNG C LNG
CHNH XC CHNH XC CHNH XC CHNH XC
MPC
Dung sai
ri ro
48
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 9
49
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 3. PHN TCH CC CNG
C KIM SOT RI RO
Nghin cu cc cng c v chin lc c th
ngn nga, gim thiu, hay loi b ri ro.
Cng c kim sot ri ro hiu qu s ngn nga,
gim thiu, hay loi b mt trong ba thnh phn
ca ri ro (kh nng xy ra, mc nghim
trng, v i tng ri ro).
50
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 3. PHN TCH CC CNG
C KIM SOT RI RO
T b B p
Trnh Ngn nga
Tr hon Gim thiu
Dn tri Chuyn giao
51
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 3. PHN TCH CC CNG
C KIM SOT RI RO
Cc la chn sau y gip nhn ra cc bin
php kim sot tim nng:
Thit k Hun luyn & o to
Bo v Cnh bo
Hon thin thit k cng vic ng vin
Gii hn him ha Gim thiu nh hng
La chn nhn s Phc hi
52
Dng tht bi Dng tht bi Dng tht bi Dng tht bi
nh hng nh hng nh hng nh hng
Phn tch Phn tch Phn tch Phn tch
Khng t nh Khng t nh Khng t nh Khng t nh
Nguyn nhn chnh Nguyn nhn chnh Nguyn nhn chnh Nguyn nhn chnh
Hu qu Hu qu Hu qu Hu qu
Gim thiu Gim thiu Gim thiu Gim thiu
nh gi ri ro nh gi ri ro nh gi ri ro nh gi ri ro
K hoch hnh ng K hoch hnh ng K hoch hnh ng K hoch hnh ng
Kt qu Kt qu Kt qu Kt qu
Hon thin lin tc Hon thin lin tc Hon thin lin tc Hon thin lin tc
Failure Mode Effect Analysis Failure Mode Effect Analysis Failure Mode Effect Analysis Failure Mode Effect Analysis
53
Dng tht bi Dng tht bi Dng tht bi Dng tht bi
Loi 1: khng thc hin tt chc nng
nh
Loi 2: iu bn khng mun, khng gi
nh l c li xy ra
54
Nguyn nhn Nguyn nhn Nguyn nhn Nguyn nhn
Con ngi (Man)
My mc (Machine)
Phng php (Method)
Vt liu (Material)
Mi trng (Environment)
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 10
55
nh hng nh hng nh hng nh hng
Sn phm
nh hng cc b
nh hng tc th nh hng trn
cc mc c xem xt hay trong
phm vi hn ch
nh hng cp cao hn
nh hng trn cc phn lin quan
hay dy chuyn k tip, hoc tt c
cc nh hng gia khu vc v
sn phm cui cng
nh hng tan cc
nh hng trn ton h thng hay
ngi s dng cui cng
Qu trnh
nh hng cc b
nh hng tc th nh hng
trn qu trnh cc b
nh hng sut qu trnh
nh hng sut qu trnh khi
chng ta khng th sa cha tnh
trng v dt im vn ngay lp
tc
nh hng ton cc
nh hng trn ton h thng hay
ngi s dng cui cng
56
Gim thiu Gim thiu Gim thiu Gim thiu
Bn s lm g trong tnh hung ?
Phng th tuyn 1
Trnh hay loi b nguyn nhn tht bi
Phng th tuyn 2
Nhn dng hay pht hin tht bi sm hn
Phng th tuyn 3
Gim nh hng/hu qu ca tht bi
57
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 4. QUYT NH KIM SOT
Bin php kim sot bao gm:
Cc quy trnh c vit thnh ti liu ngn
nga ri ro pht sinh, e.g. duy tu ngn nga,
cng c ngn nga ha hon, bo v, cc
quy trnh vn hnh.
H thng gim st bo m cc quy trnh
thc s vn hnh nh thit k.
Bo him ni c th bo him bao gm tn
tht v li nhun.
58
Cc bc hoch nh cho tnh hung bt ng
S c bc pht
xy ra
Thc hin
k hoch
Thc hin Thc hin Thc hin Thc hin
Khi ng
k hoch hi phc
Hi phc Hi phc Hi phc Hi phc
Trin khai
cc k hoch
Hoch nh Hoch nh Hoch nh Hoch nh
hn dng
s c bc pht
Pht trin cc Tnh
hung
Tin hnh
nh gi Ri ro
Xp u tin &
phm vi Ri ro
nh gi nh gi nh gi nh gi
Kim nghim
k hoch
T chc i
nh gi Ri ro
Din tp
S c
chm dt
59
weiji ( )
Khng hong
weiji = wei (nguy him)
+ ji (c hi)
60
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 4. QUYT NH KIM SOT
Sau khi la chn cc bin php kim sot
loi b cc him ha hay ngn nga
ri ro, xc nh mc ri ro cn li i
vi cng vic, nhim v hay cc hat
ng.
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 11
61
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 4. QUYT NH KIM SOT
Chp nhn k hoch
Bc b k hoch ngoi tm tay
iu chnh k hoch pht trin cc
cng c kim sot ri ro
a quyt nh ln cp cao hn
62
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 4. QUYT NH KIM SOT
Quyt nh v ri ro cp thch hp:
Ai s gii trnh khi ri ro xy ra?
Ai l qun l cao nht ni ri ro xy ra?
Ai hiu bit r nht v li ch v chi ph ca ri ro?
63
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 4. QUYT NH KIM SOT
Quyt nh v ri ro cp thch hp:
Ai c ngun lc gim thiu thit hi?
Cp no lin h n vn hnh nhiu nht?
Cp no ra cc quyt nh loi ny trong cc hot ng khc?
Ai s phi ra quyt nh ny trong qu trnh hot ng?
64
Hnh ng
Gi tr?
Ti sn
C th thit hi?
B e do?
nh hng bt li n
kinh doanh?
Hiu qu v mt
chi ph?
65
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 5. THC HIN QUYT NH
KIM SOT RI RO
Thc hin phi r rng
Xc nh trch nhim gii trnh
Cung cp h tr
66
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 6. GIM ST V XEM LI
Gim st
Xem li
Phn hi
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 12
67
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 6. GIM ST V XEM LI
Gim st Gim st Gim st Gim st Theo di hot ng m bo:
Kim sot ang c tin hnh hiu qu.
Nhn ra cc thay i c ri ro cn c qun l.
Hnh ng cn thc hin iu chnh cc kim
sot ri ro cha hiu qu v bt u li quy trnh
qun l ri ro khi c cc him ha mi.
68
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 6. GIM ST V XEM LI
Gim st Gim st Gim st Gim st Theo di hot ng m bo:
Khi c s thay i v nhn s, thit b, hay thc
hin nhim v, hoc cc hot ng mi c d
bo trong mi trng cha c bao gm trong
phn tch trc y, cc ri ro v cng c kim
sot nn c nh gi li.
Kim sot ri ro chuyn cn cn li ch-chi ph v
pha li ch gip nhim v c thc hin thnh
cng.
69
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 6. GIM ST V XEM LI
Xem li Xem li Xem li Xem li Sau khi ngun lc c phn b
kim sot ri ro, li ch chi ph phi c xem
xt.
Chi ph thc t c ph hp vi d kin?
Cc cng c kim sot nh hng g ln kt qu
thc hin?
H thng phn hi v nhim v c c thit lp
m bo cc hnh ng sa cha hay ngn nga
c thc hin hiu qu?
70
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 6. GIM ST V XEM LI
Xem li Xem li Xem li Xem li Sau khi ngun lc c phn b
kim sot ri ro, li ch chi ph phi
c xem xt.
C sn ti liu cho php xem li qu trnh quyt
nh v ri ro?
Cc o lng no c thc hin m bo
nh gi ng mc hiu qu ca cc cng c
kim sot trong vic loi b cc him ha hay
ngn nga cc ri ro?
71
QUN TR RI RO
Bc 6. GIM ST V XEM LI
Phn hi Phn hi Phn hi Phn hi Thng tin cc vn nh qu trnh
thc hin vn hnh nh th no, kim sot c
hiu qu khng
Phn hi c th di dng cc tm tt tng kt,
bi hc rt ra, cc bo co gia cc b phn,
i chiu vi chun mc, cc bo co d liu,
tai nn, bnh tt...
72
Hot ng 1:
Phn tch nhim
v / cng vic
Hat ng 2:
Lit k
Himha
Hot ng 3:
Lit k
Nguyn nhn
BC1 H DG HIM HA
BC2 H GI RI RO
Hot ng 1:
nh gi yu
t mo him
Hot ng 2:
nh gi mc
nghim trng
Hot ng 3:
nh gi kh
nng tn tht
Hot ng 4:
Hon tt
nh gi
BC3 PH TCH CG C KIM SOT RI RO
Hot ng 1:
Nhn dng cc
phng n kim sot
Hot ng 2:
Xc nh
Cc nh hng
ca kim sot
Hot ng 3:
Xp th t
cc cng c
kimsot ri ro
BC4 QUYTNH KIM SOT
Hot ng 1:
La chn cng c kim sot
Hot ng 2:
Cc quyt nh v ri ro
BC5 THC HI KIM SOT
Hot ng 1:
Lmr vic
thc hin
Hot ng 2:
Thit lp trch
nhimgii trnh
Hot ng 3:
Cung cp h tr
BC6 GIM ST V XEM LI
Hot ng 1:
Gim st
Hot ng 2:
Xemli
Hot ng 3:
Phn hi
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 13
73
QUN TR RI RO
KHI NIM 5M
74
QUN TR RI RO
KHI NIM 5M
Man Man Man Man
La chn
Kt qu thc hin cng vic
Cc yu t c nhn
75
QUN TR RI RO
KHI NIM 5M
Media Media Media Media
Kh hu, thi tit
Mi trng hot ng
V sinh mi trng
Xe c/i b
76
QUN TR RI RO
KHI NIM 5M
Machine Machine Machine Machine
Thit k
Bo tr
Cung ng
D liu k thut
77
QUN TR RI RO
KHI NIM 5M
Management Management Management Management
Thit lp tiu chun, quy trnh v kim sot
nh hng tng tc gia MAN, MEDIA,
MACHINE and MISSION
Yu t kim sot quyt nh qu trnh thnh
cng hay tht bi
78
QUN TR RI RO
KHI NIM 5M
Mission Mission Mission Mission
S mng thnh cng hay tht bi l ch
bo nng lc ca h thng
Cc nguyn nhn c bn ca tht bi
cng nm trong cc yu t Man, Media,
Machine v Management
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 14
79
TI TR SAU TN THT
Cc ngun ti tr c sn sau tn tht
Tin mt v u t ngn hn
N
Khon vay t trc
Cc khon vay t xut
Cc khon vay ngn v trung hn
Vay di hn
Vn c phn
80
CC CHIN LC
TI TR HN HP
Bo him cc tn tht ln v gi li cc tn tht
nh thng xuyn
Bo him rt tn km nn cng ty cn cn i chi
ph v li ch ca bo him
Cc hnh thc bo him bn phn:
Gimtr (Deductibles)
ng bo him (Coinsurance)
Cc gii hn ca hp ng (Policy limits)
THIT K HP NG BO HIM THIT K HP NG BO HIM THIT K HP NG BO HIM THIT K HP NG BO HIM
Bao bIem toan pban 20 tr DeductIble
Xac suat Ton that Tien boi thng Tai san Tien boi thng Tai san
0.5 0 0 200 0 215
0.1 20 20 200 0 195
0.2 40 40 200 20 195
0.1 100 100 200 80 195
0.1 200 200 200 180 195
GTTB 40 40 200 30 205

75 CoInsurance 100 tr Upper-lImIt
Xac suat Ton that Tien boi thng Tai san Tien boi thng Tai san
0.5 0 0 215 0 215
0.1 20 15 210 20 215
0.2 40 30 205 40 215
0.1 100 75 190 100 215
0.1 200 150 165 100 115
GTTB 40 30 205 30 205

Gia tr tai san ban au: 260 tr
Ph bao hiem = Tien boi thng trung bnh *150%
Gim tr (Deductibles) Gim tr (Deductibles) Gim tr (Deductibles) Gim tr (Deductibles)

Tn tht
Bi thng theo hp ng gim tr $10,000
Gim tr tng tn tht Gim tr theo tch ly
6,000
23,000
62,000
Tng bi thng
6,000 10,000 = 0
23,000 10,000 = 13,000
62,000 10,000 = 52,000
65,000
6,000
23,000
62,000
91,000 10,000 = 81,000

Trnh cc chi ph dn xp ln mt cch khng tng xng
i vi cc tn tht nh
Cc tn tht nh thng pht sinh u n, c th gii quyt
da trn k hoch ngn lu ca cng ty
Gi li cc tn tht nh, thng xuyn khng lm cho cng
ty b ri ro ng k
Khc phc tnh trng mo him do thiu trch nhim
Cc Cc Cc Cc gii gii gii gii hn hn hn hn ca ca ca ca hp hp hp hp ng ng ng ng (Policy limits) (Policy limits) (Policy limits) (Policy limits)
Ba ngi b tn thng trong mt tai nn do s bt cn ca
ngi c mua bo him
Thit hi ca h l $30,000, $40,000, v $14,000
Hp ng bo him c gii hn l $50,000 cho mi ln xy ra
tai nn, v bi thng cho mi c nhn khng qu $20,000
c bo him Khng c bo him Tng thit hi
Nn nhn A
Nn nhn B
Nn nhn C
Tng
Vi gii hn
20,000
20,000
14,000
54,000
50,000
10,000
20,000
_
30,000
30,000
40,000
14,000
84,000

Cc Cc Cc Cc gii gii gii gii hn hn hn hn ca ca ca ca hp hp hp hp ng ng ng ng (Policy limits) (Policy limits) (Policy limits) (Policy limits)
Gii hn tch ly trn tt c cc chi tr bn cnh gii
hn cho mi ln xy ra tn tht
Cc gii hn khng hp dn cc cng ty v:
Tn tht gi li l v hn v khng th iu chnh bng k
hoch ngn lu
Tn tht khng c bo him nm phn ui ca phn
phi, kh c lng v cc tn tht ny t xy ra
Thng do bn bo him t ra ch khng phi do
cng ty mua bo him
Qun tr Ri ro
Th.S Trn Quang Trung 15
85
Mc tiu:
Bc 1.
hn dng him ha
Bc 2.
nhgi him ha
Bc 3.
Quyt nh v ri ro
Bc 4.
Thc hin kim sot
Bc 5.
Gimst
Khu vn hnh Himha guyn nhn RAC
ban u
Pht trin
kimsot
RAC
cn li
Cch thc hin Cch gim st
Risk Assessment Code: RAC Risk Assessment Code: RAC Risk Assessment Code: RAC Risk Assessment Code: RAC
1=Thmkhc 2=Nghimtrng 3=Nhiu 4=t 5=Khng ng k 1=Thmkhc 2=Nghimtrng 3=Nhiu 4=t 5=Khng ng k 1=Thmkhc 2=Nghimtrng 3=Nhiu 4=t 5=Khng ng k 1=Thmkhc 2=Nghimtrng 3=Nhiu 4=t 5=Khng ng k
Chp nhn RR: Yes o
Chuyn cp trn: Yes o
Bi hc rt ra:
gy chun b: _________________
86
Bn qun l ri ro Bn qun l ri ro Bn qun l ri ro Bn qun l ri ro
1. MC TIU/CNGVIC: 2. NGY/GI BT U: 3. NGY CHUN B:
4. CHUN B BI:
5. HIM HA 5. HIM HA 5. HIM HA 5. HIM HA
Buc 1 Buc 1 Buc 1 Buc 1
6. MCRI RO 6. MCRI RO 6. MCRI RO 6. MCRI RO
Buc 2 Buc 2 Buc 2 Buc 2
7. KIMSOT 7. KIMSOT 7. KIMSOT 7. KIMSOT
Buc 3 Buc 3 Buc 3 Buc 3
10. CCHTHCHIN 10. CCHTHCHIN 10. CCHTHCHIN 10. CCHTHCHIN
Bc 4 Bc 4 Bc 4 Bc 4
11. AI THCHIN 11. AI THCHIN 11. AI THCHIN 11. AI THCHIN
Bc 5 Bc 5 Bc 5 Bc 5
12. TNHTRNG(Y/N) 12. TNHTRNG(Y/N) 12. TNHTRNG(Y/N) 12. TNHTRNG(Y/N)
Bc 6 Bc 6 Bc 6 Bc 6
8. MC RI RO CHUNG SAU KHI KIM SOTC THC HIN 8. MC RI RO CHUNG SAU KHI KIM SOTC THC HIN 8. MC RI RO CHUNG SAU KHI KIM SOTC THC HIN 8. MC RI RO CHUNG SAU KHI KIM SOTC THC HIN 9. CP QUYTNH V RI RO 9. CP QUYTNH V RI RO 9. CP QUYTNH V RI RO 9. CP QUYTNH V RI RO
1=Thm khc 2=Nghim trng 3=Nhiu 4=t 5=Khng ng k 1=Thm khc 2=Nghim trng 3=Nhiu 4=t 5=Khng ng k 1=Thm khc 2=Nghim trng 3=Nhiu 4=t 5=Khng ng k 1=Thm khc 2=Nghim trng 3=Nhiu 4=t 5=Khng ng k