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Objectives
This unit aims to investigate techniques that allow for an algorithmic process to deduce new facts from a knowledge base with a level of confidence or a measure of belief. These techniques are of particular importance when:
1. The rules in the knowledge base do not produce a conclusion that is certain even though the rule premises are known to be certain and/or 2. The premises of the rules are not known to be certain
MB - MD 1 - min(MB, MD)
CFcombine(X,Y) =
X + Y(1 - X) X+Y
A
0.8
B
0.4
C
0.7
D
0.7
In the case of branching in the inference sequencing paths should be kept distinct
D
0.7 R5 0.7
A
0.8
B
0.4
C
0.9
We should maintain to paths for cutoff (0.2), one being (E, D, C, B, A) and the other (F, C, B, A). If we had one path then E, D, C would drop to 0.19 and make C unusable later in path F, C, B, A.
Terminology
The units of belief follow the same as in probability theory If the sum of all evidence is represented by e and d is the diagnosis (hypothesis) under consideration, then the probability P(d|e) is interpreted as the probabilistic measure of belief or strength that the hypothesis d holds given the evidence e. In this context:
P(d) : a-priori probability (the probability hypothesis d occurs P(e|d) : the probability that the evidence represented by e are present given that the hypothesis (i.e. disease) holds
Requirements
It is practically impossible to obtain measurements for P(sk|dj) for each or the pieces of data sk, in e, and for the inter-relationships of the sk within each possible hypothesis dj Instead, we would like to obtain a measurement of P(di | e) in terms of P(di | sk), where e is the composite of all the observed sk
Measuring Uncertainty
Probability theory Confirmation
Classificatory: The evidence e confirms the hypothesis h Comparative: e1 confirms h more strongly than e2 confirms h or e confirms h1 more strongly than e confirms h2 Quantitative: e confirms h with strength x usually denoted as C[h,e]. In this context C[h,e] is not equal to 1-C[~h,e]
Fuzzy sets
MB[h,e] =
{ {
if P(h) = 1
otherwise
if P(h) = 0
MD[h,e] =
otherwise
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Combining Functions
MB[h, s1&s2]
{
{
If MD[h, s1&s2] = 1
otherwise
If MB[h, s1&s2] = 1
MD[h, s1&s2]
otherwise
MB[h1 or h2, e] = max(MB[h1, e], MB[h2, e]) MD[h1 or h2, e] = min(MD[h1, e], MD[h2, e]) MB[h, s1] = MB[h, s1] * max(0, CF[s1, e]) MD[h,s1] = MD[h, s1] * max(0, CF[s1, e])
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SumY intersect Y = Z m1(X) * m2(Y) m3(Z) = 1 - SumX intersect Y = empty m1(X) * m2(Y)
If all the intersections X, Y are not empty then m3 is computed by using only the upper part of the fraction above (I.e. normalize by dividing by 1) If there are intersections of X, Y that are empty the upper part of the fraction is normalized by 1-k (where k is the sum of the m1*m2 on the X,Y elements that give empty intersection
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