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Fundamentals-Of Statistics Wwwitilmcom
Fundamentals-Of Statistics Wwwitilmcom
ACCURACY, PRECISION AND VARIATION COMMON vs. SPECIAL CAUSES SAMPLE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION HISTOGRAM & THE NORMAL CURVE POPULATION vs. SAMPLE
DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY, DISPERSION & OTHER STATISTICAL INPUTS & OUTPUTS SPC FEEDBACK LOOP SPC & CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
ADJUSTMENT
PROCESS
- BLAME OPERATORS WHO ARE GIVEN BAD EQUIPMENT AND/OR AN INCAPABLE PROCESS
FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
COMMON CAUSE
RANDOM
VARIATION SUM OF MANY SMALL VARIANCES SYSTEM-RELATED 80% OF PROCESS VARIATION RESPONSIBILITY OF MANAGEMENT WRONGLY ATTRIBUTED TO LINE EMPLOYEES
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FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
SPECIAL CAUSES
ASSIGNABLE 20%
OF PROCESS VARIATION IDENTIFIABLE TO SPECIFIC CONDITIONS OVERCOME BY REMOVAL, TRAINING, EXPERIENCE and/or COACHING
FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
SAMPLE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
A METHOD OF ORGANIZING DATA TO MAKE IT MORE MEANINGFUL INVOLVES ESTABLISHING AN ARRAY
HELPS VISUALIZE THE DISTRIBUTION DATA GROUPS ARE TALLIED TO SHOW THE FREQUENCY (# OF OCCURRENCES) OF EACH GROUP
FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
SAMPLE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
FREQUENCY TABLE - UNGROUPED DATA
Tally of the Number of Students Talking in Class # TALKING 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 TABULATION IIII IIII III IIII IIII III IIII II III II I FREQUENCY 5 8 13 7 3 2 1
FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
HISTOGRAM
HISTOGRAM DISPLAYS LARGE AMOUNTS OF DATA THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET IN TABULAR FORM REVEALS THE CENTERING, VARIATION AND SHAPE OF THE DATA PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PREDICTING FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF A PROCESS HELPS ANSWER THE QUESTION IS THE PROCESS CAPABLE OF MEETING THE CUSTOMER REQUIREMENTS? SET OF RECTANGLES THAT REPRESENT THE FREQUENCY OF OBSERVED VALUES IN EACH CATEGORY 9
FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
HISTOGRAMS
Frequency Histogram
Frequency
15 10 5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 # of Students Talking
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FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
HISTOGRAMS
Cumulative Frequency Histogram
Cumulative Frequency
39 19 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 # of Students Talking
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FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
SAMPLE
POPULATION
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FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
PROBABILITY-BASED TYPICAL
OF MANUFACTURING PROCESS OUTCOMES SUM OF ALL ATTEMPTS AT PERFECTION ESTIMATES THE POPULATION STRIVING FOR CENTRAL TENDENCY MEAN, MODE, MEDIAN
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FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
- small portion of representative measurements - necessary when it is impossible (or not cost effective) to get all measurements - all measurements
POPULATION
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FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
POPULATION
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FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
(X-BAR): AVERAGE
OBSERVATION MIDPOINT
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FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
MEASURES OF DISPERSION
ALTERNATIVE
TO CENTRAL
SQUARED
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FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
MEASURES OF DISPERSION
= 1.5 = 3.0 = 4.5
x
8 20 32
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FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
MEASURES OF DISPERSION
68.26%
95.46%
99.73%
-3
-2
-1
3
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FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
- CLOSE GAP
OBSERVE
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FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS
CONTROL LOOP
INPUT PROCESS OUTPUT MEASUREMENT
ADJUST
DECIDE ON FIX?
STATISTICS
ID GAPS
EXAMINE
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NOTHING: PROCESS IN SPEC CHANGE SPECS: LIMITS UNREALISTIC CENTER PROCESS: SPEC SPREAD =
PROCESS SPREAD: ADJUST
REDUCE ACCEPT
DEFINITIONS:
PROBABILITY
FORMULA DEFINITION:
NA P(A) = N
where P(A) = probability of an event A occurring NA = number of successful outcomes of event A N = total number of possible outcomes
This definition can be used when the # of outcomes is known or found by experimentation
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IS EXPRESSED AS A NUMBER BETWEEN 1.000 AND 0 WHERE 1.000 IS CERTAINTY THAT AN EVENT WILL OCCUR AND A VALUE OF 0 IS A CERTAINTY THAT AN EVENT WILL NOT OCCUR
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P(A) IS THE PROBABILITY THAT EVENT A WILL OCCUR, THEN THE PROBABILITY EVENT A WILL NOT OCCUR, P(A) IS 1.000 - P(A).
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A & B ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS, THEN THE PROBABILITY THAT EITHER A OR B WILL OCCUR IS THE SUM OF THEIR RESPECTIVE PROBABILITIES
EVENT A & B ARE NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS, THEN THE PROBABILITY OF EITHER A OR EVENT B OR BOTH IS GIVEN BY:
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A & B ARE INDEPENDENT EVENTS, THEN THE PROBABILITY OF BOTH A & B OCCURRING IS THE PRODUCT OF THEIR RESPECTIVE PROBABILITIES
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A & B ARE DEPENDANT EVENTS, THE PROBABILITY OF BOTH A & B OCCURRING IS THE PRODUCT OF THE PROBABILITY OF A AND THE PROBABILITY THAT IF A OCCURRED, THEN B WILL ALSO
IN ORDER TO CONSISTENTLY SHIP QUALITY PRODUCT TO THE CUSTOMER YOU HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROCESS NOT THE PRODUCT
INSPECTION (if youre lucky) FINDS DEFECTS AFTER THE FACT THIS RESULTS IN C.O.P.Q. COSTS THAT COULD HAVE BEEN DETECTED OR AVOIDED MUCH EARLIER IN THE PROCESS
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BY WALTER SHEWHART
GRAPHS THAT DISPLAY DYNAMIC PICTURE OF PROCESS BEHAVIOR. >100 DATA POINTS TO START IN CONTROL: Within Control Limits OUT OF CONTROL: Exceed Control Limits
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UPPER
LOWER
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X: INDIVIDUAL MEASUREMENT
X-bar (X): SAMPLE AVERAGE X-double bar (X): GRAND AVERAGE R: SAMPLE RANGE R-bar (R): AVERAGE RANGE ALL SAMPLES s: STANDARD DEVIATION
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Y (results)
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LIMITS:
CONTROL LIMITS:
- UCL = (D4)(RBAR) - LCL = (D3)(RBAR)
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BELOW LCL
RUN:
> 7 CONSECUTIVE PTS ABOVE OR BELOW CENTERLINE MORE THAN 1 POINT IN 20 CONSECUTIVE POINTS CLOSE TO UCL OR LCL 5-7 CONSECUTIVE POINTS IN ONE DIRECTION (UP OR DOWN)
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1-IN-20:
TREND:
CONTROL CHARTS
IN CONTROL w/ CHANCE VARIATION
Control Chart - Chance Variation
Y (results)
UCL
Ave. LCL
X (observations)
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Y (results)
Y (results)
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Y (results)
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Y (results)
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CONTROL CHARTS
POINTS NEAR OR OUTSIDE LIMITS
Control Chart - Points Near or Outside Control Limits
Y (results)
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CHARACTERISTICS
CHART PER PROCESS FOLLOW TRENDS AND CYCLES EVALUATE ANY PROCESS CHANGE CONSISTS OF SEVERAL SUBGROUPS (a.k.a. - LOTS)
- SUBGROUP SIZE > 50
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CONTROL CHARTS
ATTRIBUTE CHART TYPES
p
chart = Proportion Defective np chart = Number Defective c chart = Number of nonconformities within a constant sample size u chart = Number of nonconformities within a varying sample size
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CONTROL CHARTS
np CHART EXAMPLE
np Chart
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# of Defects
20 15 10 5 0
UCL
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13
15
17
19
Serial Number
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21
1: FALSE ALARM
-
2: NO DETECTION OF PROBLEM
-
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PROCESS CAPABILITY
FORMULAS
UNDERSTANDING WHAT
THEY MEAN
REACTING
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PROCESS CAPABILITY
MEASURE
OF THE CAPABILITY OF A PROCESS TO MEET A CUSTOMER SPECIFICATION LIMITS IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A PROCESS THAT IS IN CONTROL, STABLE & PREDICTABLE YET STILL PRODUCE PRODUCT OUTSIDE OF CUSTOMER SPECIFICATION LIMITS (SCRAP)
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PROCESS CAPABILITY
Cp
THE GOAL OF A PROCESS IS TO HAVE IT CENTERED ON THE TARGET (NOMINAL VALUE) THE MEASURE THE CENTERING IS Cpk USUALLY COMPANIES STRIVE FOR A Cp > 1.33 (2.0) & A Cpk > 1.0 (1.33)
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TRUE PROCESS CAPABILITY CAN NOT BE DETERMINE UNTIL THE PROCESS IS IN CONTROL CONTROL IS USUALLY VERIFIED VIA A CONTROL CHART CAPABILITY = 6
PROCESS
PROCESS
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PATTERN OF STATISTICALLY STABLE BEHAVIOR CAUSES OF VARIATION COMPARED TO ENGINEERING SPECIFICATIONS NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED CONTROLLED TOLERANCES
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OF CONTROL, IN SPECIFICATION
-
- REWORK OR SCRAP PRODUCT PROCESS IS IN CONTROL BUT NOT CAPABLE POSSIBLE NEED FOR A NEW PROCESS
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SIX SIGMA
Attitude
Customer
Focus
Customers Have All The Votes Concerning Extent Of Satisfaction And Value
Strategic Focus
Voice Of The Customer
(Surveys/QMI)
Stakeholder CTQs
Deployment
The Measure Is Sensitive To The Right Things And Insensitive To Other Things The Measure Promotes Appropriate Analysis And Action
Data Needed Must Be Easy To Collect
Quality Measurement
There Are Two Types Of Measures
Effectiveness Measures:
The Degree To Which Customer Needs And Requirements Are Met And Exceeded Some Examples: Percent Defective Response Time
Billing Accuracy
Efficiency Measures:
The Amount Of Resources Allocated In Meeting And Exceeding Customer Requirements Some Examples: Cost Per Transaction Turnaround Time
Management
Process Management System
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Process Improvement (DAIC) Project Focus On Root Causes That Drive CTQ Performance
QFD
Process Design (DMADV) Project Optimize Design Across CTQs And Subprocesses
Core Process Matrix
Define
Analyze
To Collect Facts About A Problem Or Opportunity; Learn Why A Problem Is Happening; Develop Knowledge Key To Solving The Problem To Quantify The Impact Of A Solution, To Measure The Degree And Direction Of Change, To Compare Before And After Pictures Of The Process
Improve
Control
To Measure The Degree And Direction Of Change, To Communicate In An Objective Manner, To Take Action To Maintain Improvement Gains
PDCA
Plan 1 2 3
7 STEPS
Charter/Theme Data Collection Root Cause
GEs DMAIC
Define Measure Analyze
Do
Improve
Check
6 Act 7
Control
Groups Interviews Customer Observation Market Research Be A Customer Customer Complaints Surveys (e.g., Walker Surveys)
Where To Focus
To Get Results, Should We Focus Our Behavior On The Y Or The X?
Response
Y Dependent Output Effect Symptom Monitor
Predictor
Y=
f (X)
X1...XN
Independent
Input-Process Cause
Problem
Control
Adapted from General Electric Capitol Systems Center for Learning and Organizational Excellence 1997-2000
Process Process
Define
Measure
Analyze
NEW TOOLS
Design
Verify
MGPP
QFD Benchmarking
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Relation To DAIC
Define No
Process?
Does A Process Exist?
Yes Measure
Measure
Analyze
Analyze
Design
No
Yes
Verify
Improve
Control
Project Prioritization
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Deliverables
Define
Measure Analyze Design Verify
Define
Service Concept/Target Customers Determined (High-Level) Multi-Generational Product Plan (MGPP) Developed (If Required) Business Case, Objectives And Targets Set Process Owner,Quality Facilitators, And Core Team Dynamics! Team Charter Documented And Reviewed With Process Owner Project Timeline In Place And Approved
Questions To Be Answered: What Are The Objectives Of The Project? What (Appropriate) Scope, Timeline And Resource Required?
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Roadmap Define
Measure
Measure Analyze Design Verify
Reviews: Tollgate 2 Measure Phase
Customer/Internal Risk
Determine & Prioritize Customer CTQs At Detailed Level Determine & Prioritize Internal CTQs At Detailed Level
Risk, Financial Targets Compliance
Brainstorming
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Deliverables Define
Measure
Measure Analyze Design Verify
Customer And Internal Needs Defined Product And Service Requirements Determined Detailed And Measurable CTQs Developed Customer Expectations For CTQs Quantified And Prioritized Customer Risk Assessed
Questions To Be Answered: What Are The Most Important Requirements For The Product/Service? What Are My CTQs And What Are The Related Targets And Specifications?
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Analyze
Deliverables Define Measure Analyze Design Verify
Determine Functional Requirements, Analyze Capability Gaps, Identify Alternatives, And Choose High-Level Design, Develop Design Requirements
Map
IT and Supplier Options Process (Organization) Risk (Type High-Level (Clean Paper) Process Design
Develop
Questions To Be Answered: What Design Concepts Could Be Employed In The New Product/Service? Which Is The Best Concept? What Are The Requirements For The Detailed Design?
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Roadmap
Design
Measure Analyze Design Verify
Reviews: Tollgate 4 Design Phase
Define
Control/Verification Plan
Capability Analyses Failure Modes And Effects Analysis Simulate Process Performance
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Deliverables Define
Design
Measure Analyze Design Verify
Design Detailed Processes, Facilities, etc. Establish Measurements For CTPs And Specify Spec. Limits
Questions To Be Answered: How Do I Create An Integrated, Optimized Design? How Will I Control My Process? How Will I Pilot The Process?
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Roadmap
Verify
Define Measure Analyze Design Verify
Reviews: Tollgate 5 Verify Phase
Execute Pilot
Analyze Results
Document/Transition
Measure Performance
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Verify
Analyze Design
z Verify
Roll-Out Pilot Process And Execute Test/Validation Plan Analyze Product/Process Performance Against Set Design Specs
Questions To Be Answered: Is The Product/Process Meeting The Set Requirements? Are All Process Steps Documented For Smooth Transition?
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End of Presentation
Thank you for your attention! We may have time for a few questions.
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