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Simulation Modeling

To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, Tenth Edition, by Render, Stair, and Hanna Power Point slides created by Jeff Heyl

Learning Objectives

After completing this chapter, students will be able to: 1. Tackle a wide variety of problems by simulation 2. Understand the seven steps of conducting a simulation 3. Explain the advantages and disadvantages of simulation 4. Develop random number intervals and use them to generate outcomes 5. Understand alternative simulation packages available

15 2

Chapter Outline

15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 Introduction Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation Monte Carlo Simulation Simulation and Inventory Analysis Simulation of a Queuing Problem Fixed Time Increment and Next Event Increment Simulation Models 15.7 Simulation Model for a Maintenance Policy 15.8 Two Other Types of Simulation 15.9 Verification and Validation 15.10 Role of Computers in Simulation

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 3

Introduction

Simulation is one of the most widely used

quantitative analysis tools It is used by over half of the largest US corporations in corporate planning To simulate is to try to duplicate the features, appearance, and characteristics of a real system We will build a mathematical model that comes as close as possible to representing the reality of the system You can also build physical models to test systems

15 4

Introduction

The idea behind simulation is to imitate a real-

world situation mathematically Study its properties and operating characteristics Draw conclusions and make action decisions

15 5

Introduction

Using simulation, a manager should

1. Define a problem 2. Introduce the variables associated with the problem 3. Construct a numerical model 4. Set up possible courses of action for testing 5. Run the experiment 6. Consider the results 7. Decide what courses of action to take

15 6

Process of Simulation

Define Problem

Introduce Important Variables Construct Simulation Model Specify Values of Variables to Be Tested Conduct the Simulation Examine the Results

Figure 15.1

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 7

Simulation is useful because

1. It is relatively straightforward and flexible 2. Recent advances in computer software make simulation models very easy to develop 3. Can be used to analyze large and complex real-world situations 4. Allows what-if? type questions 5. Does not interfere with the real-world system 6. Enables study of interactions between components 7. Enables time compression 8. Enables the inclusion of real-world complications

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 8

The main disadvantages of simulation are

1. It is often expensive as it may require a long, complicated process to develop the model 2. Does not generate optimal solutions, it is a trial-and-error approach 3. Requires managers to generate all conditions and constraints of real-world problem 4. Each model is unique and the solutions and inferences are not usually transferable to other problems

15 9

When systems contain elements that exhibit

chance in their behavior, the Monte Carlo method of simulation can be applied Some examples are 1. Inventory demand 2. Lead time for inventory 3. Times between machine breakdowns 4. Times between arrivals 5. Service times 6. Times to complete project activities 7. Number of employees absent

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 10

The basis of the Monte Carlo simulation is

experimentation on the probabilistic elements through random sampling It is based on the following five steps 1. Setting up a probability distribution for important variables 2. Building a cumulative probability distribution for each variable 3. Establishing an interval of random numbers for each variable 4. Generating random numbers 5. Actually simulating a series of trials

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 11

A popular radial tire accounts for a large portion

of the sales at Harrys Auto Tire Harry wishes to determine a policy for managing this inventory He wants to simulate the daily demand for a number of days Step 1: Establishing probability distributions One way to establish a probability distribution for a given variable is to examine historical outcomes Managerial estimates based on judgment and experience can also be used

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 12

Historical daily demand for radial tires

DEMAND FOR TIRES FREQUENCY (DAYS)

0

1 2 3

10

20 40 60

4

5

40

30 200

Table 15.1

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 13

Step 2: Building a cumulative probability distribution for each variable

Converting from a regular probability to a

cumulative distribution is an easy job A cumulative probability is the probability that a variable will be less than or equal to a particular value A cumulative distribution lists all of the possible values and the probabilities Tables 15.2 and 15.3 show these distributions

15 14

Probability of demand for radial tires

DEMAND VARIABLE

0 1 2 3 4 5

PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

10/200 = 20/200 = 40/200 = 60/200 = 40/200 = 30/200 = 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.15

200/200 =

Table 15.2

1.00

15 15

Cumulative probability for radial tires

DAILY DEMAND 0 1 2 3 4 PROBABILITY 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.20 CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY 0.05 0.15 0.35 0.65 0.85

5

Table 15.3

0.15

1.00

15 16

Step 3: Setting random number intervals We assign a set of numbers to represent each possible value or outcome These are random number intervals A random number is a series of digits that have been selected by a totally random process The range of the random number intervals corresponds exactly to the probability of the outcomes as shown in Figure 15.2

15 17

Graphical representation of the cumulative

Cumulative Probability

1.00 0.85

1.00

00 86 85

0.80

0.65 0.60

0.40

0.35

36 35 16 15 06 05 01

0.20 0.05

0.15

Figure 15.2

66 65

15 18

Assignment of random number intervals for

DAILY DEMAND 0 1 2 3 4

5

Table 15.4

0.15

1.00

86 to 00

15 19

Step 4: Generating random numbers Random numbers can be generated in several ways Large problems will use computer program to generate the needed random numbers For small problems, random processes like roulette wheels or pulling chips from a hat may be used The most common manual method is to use a random number table Because everything is random in a random number table, we can select numbers from anywhere in the table to use in the simulation

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 20

Table of random numbers (partial)

52 37 82 69 98 06 63 57 02 94 50 28 68 36 90 88 02 28 49 36 53 74 05 71 06 30 35 94 99 78 10 24 03 32 23 47 03 11 10 67 99 29 27 75 89 37 60 79 21 85

96

33 50 88 90

52

69 33 32 30

62

27 50 18 36

87

21 95 50 24

49

11 13 62 69

56

60 44 57 82

59

95 34 34 51

23

89 62 56 74

78

68 64 62 30

71

48 39 31 35

Table 15.5

15 21

Step 5: Simulating the experiment We select random numbers from Table 15.5 The number we select will have a corresponding range in Table 15.4 We use the daily demand that corresponds to the probability range aligned with the random number

15 22

Ten-day simulation of demand for radial tires

DAY 1 2 3 4 5 6 RANDOM NUMBER 52 37 82 69 98 96 SIMULATED DAILY DEMAND 3 3 4 4 5 5

7

8 9 10

33

50 88 90

2

3 5 5

3.9 = average daily demand for tires Table 15.6

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 23

Note that the average demand from this

5 Expected Probability of i tiresDemand of i tires daily i 0 demand (0.05)(0) + (0.10)(1) + (0.20)(2) + (0.30)(3) + (0.20)(4) + (0.15)(5) 2.95 tires

thousands of times it is much more likely the average simulated demand would be nearly the same as the expected demand

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 24

Monte Carlo simulation of Harrys Auto Tire using

QM for Windows

Program 15.1

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 25

Using Excel to simulate tire demand for Harrys

Program 15.2A

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 26

Excel simulation results for Harrys Auto Tire

Program 15.2B

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 27

Generating normal random numbers in Excel

Program 15.3A

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 28

Excel output with normal random numbers

Program 15.3B

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 29

We have seen deterministic inventory models In many real-world inventory situations, demand

and lead time are variables Accurate analysis is difficult without simulation We will look at an inventory problem with two decision variables and two probabilistic components The owner of a hardware store wants to establish order quantity and reorder point decisions for a product that has probabilistic daily demand and reorder lead time

15 30

The owner of a hardware store wants to find a

good, low cost inventory policy for an electric drill Simkin identifies two types of variables, controllable and uncontrollable inputs The controllable inputs are the order quantity and reorder points The uncontrollable inputs are daily demand and variable lead time The demand data for the drill is shown in Table 15.7

15 31

Probabilities and random number intervals for

(1) DEMAND FOR ACE DRILL 0 1 2 3 4 5 (2) FREQUENCY (DAYS) 15 30 60 120 45 30 300 (3) PROBABILITY 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.15 0.10 1.00 (4) CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY 0.05 0.15 0.35 0.75 0.90 1.00 (5) INTERVAL OF RANDOM NUMBERS 01 to 05 06 to 15 16 to 35 36 to 75 76 to 90 91 to 00

Table 15.7

15 32

Probabilities and random number intervals for

(1) LEAD TIME (DAYS) 1 2 3 (2) FREQUENCY (ORDERS) 10 25 15 50 (3) PROBABILITY 0.20 0.50 0.30 1.00 (4) CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY 0.20 0.70 1.00 (5) RANDOM NUMBER INTERVAL 01 to 20 21 to 70 71 to 00

Table 15.8

15 33

The third step is to develop a simulation model A flow diagram, or flowchart, is helpful in this

process The fourth step in the process is to specify the values of the variables that we wish to test The first policy Simkin wants to test is an order quantity of 10 with a reorder point of 5 The fifth step is to actually conduct the simulation The process is simulated for a 10 day period

15 34

Flow diagram

Start Begin day of simulation Has order arrived? No Select random number to generate todays demand

Yes

Yes

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 35

Flow diagram

No

Has order been placed that hasnt arrived yet ? No Yes Have enough days of this order policy been simulated ? Yes Yes

No

Place order

Compute average ending inventory, average lost sales, average number of orders placed, and corresponding costs

End

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 36

Using the table of random numbers, the

1. Begin each day by checking whether an ordered inventory has arrived. If it has, increase the current inventory by the quantity ordered. 2. Generate a daily demand from the demand probability by selecting a random number 3. Compute the ending inventory every day. If on-hand inventory is insufficient to meet the days demand, satisfy as much as possible and note the number of lost sales. 4. Determine whether the days ending inventory has reached the reorder point. If necessary place an order.

15 37

Simkin Hardwares first inventory simulation

ORDER QUANTITY = 10 UNITS (1) DAY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (2) UNITS RECEIVED 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 10 0 (3) BEGINNING INVENTORY 10 9 6 3 10 7 4 2 10 7 REORDER POINT = 5 UNITS (4) RANDOM NUMBER 06 63 57 94 52 69 32 30 48 88 (5) DEMAND 1 3 3 5 3 3 2 2 3 4 Total (6) ENDING INVENTORY 9 6 3 0 7 4 2 0 7 3 41 (7) LOST SALES 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 (8) ORDER No No Yes No No Yes No No No Yes 14 1 33 2 02 1 (9) RANDOM NUMBER (10) LEAD TIME

Table 15.9

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 38

The objective is to find a low-cost solution so

Simkin must determine what the costs are Equations for average daily ending inventory, average lost sales, and average number of orders placed

Average 41 total units 4.1units per day ending 10 days inventory

2 sales lost Average 0.2 units per day lost sales 10 days

Average 3 orders 0.3 orders per day number of orders placed 10 days

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 39

Simkins store is open 200 days a year Estimated ordering cost is $10 per order Holding cost is $6 per drill per year Lost sales cost $8

Daily order cost = (Cost of placing one order) x (Number of orders placed per day) = $10 per order x 0.3 orders per day = $3 Daily holding cost = (Cost of holding one unit for one day) x (Average ending inventory) = $0.03 per unit per day x 4.1 units per day = $0.12

15 40

Simkins store is open 200 days a year Estimated ordering cost is $10 per order Holding cost is $6 per drill per year Lost sales cost $8

Daily stockout cost = (Cost per lost sale) x (Average number of lost sales per day) = $8 per lost sale x 0.2 lost sales per day = $1.60 Total daily inventory cost = Daily order cost + Daily holding cost + Daily stockout cost = $4.72

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 41

For the year, this policy would cost approximately

$944 This simulation should really be extended for many more days, perhaps 100 or 1,000 days Even after a larger simulation, the model must be verified and validated to make sure it truly represents the situation on which it is based If we are satisfied with the model, additional simulations can be conducted using other values for the variables After simulating all reasonable combinations, Simkin would select the policy that results in the lowest total cost

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 42

Modeling waiting lines is an important application

of simulation The assumptions of queuing models are quite restrictive Sometimes simulation is the only approach that fits In this example, arrivals do not follow a Poisson distribution and unloading rates are not exponential or constant

15 43

Fully loaded barges arrive at night for unloading The number of barges each night varies from 0 - 5 The number of barges vary from day to day The supervisor has information which can be

used to create a probability distribution for the daily unloading rate Barges are unloaded first-in, first-out Barges must wait for unloading which is expensive The dock superintendent wants to do a simulation study to enable him to make better staffing decisions

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 44

Overnight barge arrival rates and random number

intervals

NUMBER OF ARRIVALS 0 PROBABILITY 0.13 CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY 0.13 RANDOM NUMBER INTERVAL 01 to 13

1

2 3 4 5

0.17

0.15 0.25 0.20 0.10

0.30

0.45 0.70 0.90 1.00

14 to 30

31 to 45 46 to 70 71 to 90 91 to 00

Table 15.10

15 45

Unloading rates and random number intervals

PROBABILITY 0.05

2

3 4 5

0.15

0.50 0.20 0.10 1.00

0.20

0.70 0.90 1.00

06 to 20

21 to 70 71 to 90 91 to 00

Table 15.11

15 46

Queuing simulation of barge unloadings

(1) DAY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 (2) NUMBER DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS DAY 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 2 4 3 (3) RANDOM NUMBER 52 06 50 88 53 30 10 47 99 37 66 (4) NUMBER OF NIGHTLY ARRIVALS 3 0 3 4 3 1 0 3 5 2 3 (5) TOTAL TO BE UNLOADED 3 0 3 4 6 3 0 3 7 6 6 (6) RANDOM NUMBER 37 63 28 02 74 35 24 03 29 60 74 (7) NUMBER UNLOADED 3 0 3 1 4 3 0 1 3 3 4

12

13 14 15

2

3 1 0 20 Total delays

91

35 32 00

5

2 2 5 41 Total arrivals

7

5 3 5

85

90 73 59

4

4 3 3 39 Total unloadings

Table 15.12

15 47

Three important pieces of information

Average number of barges 20 delays delayed to the next day 15 days 1.33 barges delayed per day

41 arrivals Average number of 2.73 arrivals nightly arrivals 15 days

Average number of barges 39 unloadings 2.60 unloadings unloaded each day 15 days

15 48

An Excel model for the Port of New Orleans

queuing simulation

Program 15.4A

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 49

Output from the Excel formulas in Program 15.4A

Program 15.4B

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 50

Simulation models are often classified into fixed

time increment models and next event increment models The terms refer to the frequency in which the system status is updated Fixed time increments update the status of the system at fixed time intervals Next event increment models update only when the system status changes Fixed event models randomly generate the number of events that occur during a time period Next event models randomly generate the time that elapses until the next event occurs

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 51

Simulation can be used to analyze different

maintenance policies before actually implementing them Many options regarding staffing levels, parts replacement schedules, downtime, and labor costs can be compared This can including completely shutting down factories for maintenance

15 52

Three Hills provides power to a large city through

a series of almost 200 electric generators The company is concerned about generator failures because a breakdown costs about $75 per generator per hour Their four repair people earn $30 per hour and work rotating 8 hour shifts Management wants to evaluate the 1. Service maintenance cost 2. Simulated machine breakdown cost 3. Total cost

15 53

There are two important maintenance system

components Time between successive generator breakdowns which varies from 30 minutes to three hours The time it takes to repair the generators which ranges from one to three hours in one hour blocks A next event simulation is constructed to study this problem

15 54

Three Hills

Start

flow diagram

Generate random number for Time Between Breakdowns

Record actual clock time of breakdown Examine time previous repair ends

No

Yes

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 55

Three Hills

flow diagram

Generate random number for repair time required Compute time repair completed Compute hours of machine downtime = Time repair completed Clock time of breakdown

No

End

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 56

Time between generator breakdowns at Three

Hills Power

TIME BETWEEN RECORDED MACHINE FAILURES (HRS) 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Total Table 15.13

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 57

CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY

0.05 0.11 0.27 0.60 0.81 1.00

Generator repair times required

NUMBER OF TIMES OBSERVED 28 52 20 RANDOM NUMBER INTERVAL 01 to 28 29 to 80 81 to 00

Total

Table 15.14

100

1.00

15 58

Simulation of generator breakdowns and repairs

(1) BREAKDOWN NUMBER 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 (2) RANDOM NUMBER FOR BREAKDOWNS 57 17 36 72 85 31 44 30 26 (3) TIME BETWEEN BREAKDOWNS 2 1.5 2 2.5 3 2 2 2 1.5 (4) TIME OF BREAKDOWN 02:00 03:30 05:30 08:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 18:30 (5) TIME REPAIRPERSON IS FREE TO BEGIN THIS REPAIR 02:00 03:30 05:30 08:00 11:00 13:00 16:00 18:00 19:00 (6) RANDOM NUMBER FOR REPAIR TIME 07 60 77 49 76 95 51 16 14 (7) REPAIR TIME REQUIRED 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 1 (8) TIME REPAIR ENDS 03:00 05:30 07:30 10:00 13:00 16:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 (9) NUMBER OF HOURS MACHINE DOWN 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 1.5

10

11 12 13 14 15

09

49 13 33 89 13

1

2 1.5 2 3 1.5

19:30

21:30 23:00 01:00 04:00 05:30

20:00

23:00 01:00 04:00 06:00 08:00

85

59 85 40 42 52

3

2 3 2 2 2

23:00

01:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 Total

3.5

3.5 5 5 4 4.5 44

Table 15.15

15 59

The simulation of 15 generator breakdowns

Service maintenance = 34 hours of worker service time cost x $30 per hour = $1,020 Simulated machine = 44 total hours of breakdown breakdown cost x $75 lost per hour of downtime = $3,300 Total simulated maintenance cost of = Service cost + Breakdown cost the current system = $1,020 + $3,300 = $4,320

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 60

The cost of $4,320 should be compared with

other alternative plans to see if this is a good value The company might explore options like adding another repairperson Strategies such as preventive maintenance might also be simulated for comparison

15 61

An Excel spreadsheet model for simulating the

Program 15.5A

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 62

Output from Excel spreadsheet in Program 15.5A

Program 15.5B

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 63

Simulation models are often broken into

three categories

The Monte Carlo method Operational gaming Systems simulation

15 64

Operational Gaming

Operational gaming refers to simulation involving

two or more competing players The best examples of this are military games and business games These types of simulation allow the testing of skills and decision-making in a competitive environment

15 65

Systems Simulation

Systems simulation is similar in that allows users

to test various managerial policies and decisions to evaluate their effect on the operating environment This models the dynamics of large systems A corporate operating system might model sales, production levels, marketing policies, investments, union contracts, utility rates, financing, and other factors Economic simulations, often called econometric models, are used by governments, bankers, and large organizations to predict inflation rates, domestic and foreign money supplies, and unemployment levels

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 66

Systems Simulation

Inputs and outputs of a typical economic system

simulation

Income Tax Levels Corporate Tax Rates Interest Rates Government Spending Foreign Trade Policy

Figure 15.5

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 67

Inflation Rates

It is important that a simulation model be checked

to see that it is working properly and providing good representation of the real world situation The verification process involves determining that the computer model is internally consistent and following the logic of the conceptual model Verification answers the question Did we build the model right? Validation is the process of comparing a simulation model to the real system it represents to make sure it is accurate Validation answers the question Did we build the right model?

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 68

Computers are critical in simulating complex

tasks Three types of computer programming languages are available to help the simulation process General-purpose languages Special-purpose simulation languages

1. These require less programming 2. Are more efficient and easier to check for errors 3. Have random number generators built in

wide range of common problems Excel and add-ins can also be used for simulation problems

2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 69

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