THE CHANGING CLIMATE:

SCENARIOS AND POLICIES

Prof Jim Skea
Research Director Designate
UK Energy Research Centre
WHAT ARE THE TARGETS
• Royal Commission on Environmental
Pollution
– Adopt a strategy which puts UK on a path to
reducing carbon emissions 60% by about 2050
• PIU Energy Review
– Energy efficiency and renewables the most cost-
effective option – keep nuclear and fossil
fuel/carbon capture option open
• Energy White Paper
– Accepts 60% challenge
– Policy tends to follow PIU
 REDUCING CARBON: THE
SIZE OF THE CHALLENGE
• need to reduce CO2 emissions by 1.8% pa
• say economic growth is 2.5% pa, need to decouple
CO2 from GDP by over 4% pa
• average 1970–2000 is 3.0% leaving 41mtC gap in
2050
• take out the “dash for gas”, 2.1% leaving 83 mtC gap
• projections 2000-2010, including Climate Change
Programme, 2.8% leaving 48 mtC gap

Source: Interdepartmental Analysts Group

 AND WHILE YOU’RE ABOUT IT!

• maintain security of supply

– geopolitical: gas supplies
– network security: renewables penetration,
investment incentives
• eliminate fuel poverty and maintain
competitiveness
• ….within a framework of competitive markets
– Competition ⇒ risk ⇒ high discount rates
≠ capital intensive technology
 CAN IT BE DONE?
Efficiency Renewables Nuclear or fossil
with carbon capture
Scenario 1 Modest, 60-fold Almost 5 times
demand increase current levels
unchanged

Scenario 2 Aggressive 50-fold None

reductions increase
(36%)

Scenario 3 Aggressive 25-fold Almost twice

reductions increase current levels
(36%)

Scenario 4 Very 20-fold None

aggressive increase
reductions
(47%)
Source: RCEP,
2000
 CAN IT BE DONE?
• At the technical level, yes
• But choices to be made…
– Energy efficiency?
– Nuclear?
– Renewables? Which kind?
– Carbon management for fossil fuels?
• …and social and economic acceptability
– raising finance
– re-wiring Britain – and who will pay
– political will to raise the price of energy
– social acceptability of new technologies
– new environmental impacts – biodiversity/biomass
 WHAT DOES THE IMMEDIATE
FUTURE BRING?
• fossil fuels dominate for some time to come
• continuing debate about competitiveness impact of
measures such as emissions trading
• the “low-hanging” fruit of home energy efficiency has
been picked. Next round of Energy Efficiency
Commitments will be much tougher
• consumer electronics and transport hard to tackle
• replacing current nuclear stations an issue
• pushing renewables into the energy system…
RENEWABLES PROGRESS
• Target of 10% electricity from renewables by
2010 (15% by 2015)
• Actual level 1.8% in 2002/03 compared to
Renewables Obligation target of 3.0%
• Wind (onshore/offshore) will deliver most of
the 2010 target and will dominate to 2020
• In the long-term other options – marine?
Biomass? But renewable innovation review
downplays PV.
 WHAT ABOUT THE LONGER TERM?
Large onshore wind 25 installations
Small onshore wind 250
Large offshore wind 180
PV roofs 7.5m
Wave power 7,500 units
Energy crop 3,000 MW
installations
The hydrogen
economy?
Source: RCEP, 2000
 KEY TO FUTURE PROGRESS

• Long-term
– investment in creating/maintaining technology
options
– changing expectations about energy consuming
behaviour and influencing attitudes to technology
• Short-medium term - measures that “frame”
the market
– energy efficiency commitments
– renewables obligation (or equivalent)
– Begin to grapple with transport incl. aviation
– emissions trading and fiscal measures
CHALLENGES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
ASSESSMENT COMMUNITY
• bringing together environmental, social
and economic strands
• Better social appraisal techniques
• Appraising policies, plans and
programmes
• More monitoring and ex-post evaluation
– energy policy is “evidence-resistant”
Source: Foresight Programme, 2001
 ENERGY SECTOR CHALLENGES

• new technologies to assess – biomass,

marine etc.
• assessment in context of public acceptability
issues
• assessing aggregate impacts of large-scale
investment in new technologies
• energy policy is “evidence-resistant” - more
monitoring, ex-post evaluation, policy learning