Reasoning and Decision Making

Thinking

Ways of thinking

Analysis breaking down a large complex problem into smaller simpler problems
Synthesis combining two or more concepts into a complex form Divergent thinking generating many ideas or possible solutions to a problem Convergent thinking choosing the best solution or idea of a possible many
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Categories of thinking processes

Problem solving developing a solution to a problem situation Judgments and decision making involves making choices Reasoning drawing conclusions given specific information

Creativity production of original thoughts and ideas

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Reasoning

Two basic processes in reasoning

1. A process that uses existing knowledge to reason or make decisions about new situations and information acquired during new experiences.

Top-down process Errors can lead to top-down errors

2. A process that determines what new information is relevant to reasoning and decision making

Confirmation bias
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Reasoning and Logic

Two forms to be covered:

Syllogisms a 3-statement logical form, the 1st two parts state premises or statements assumed to be true, and the 3rd part is a conclusion based on those premises Conditional reasoning a logical determination of whether evidence supports, refutes, or is irrelevant to the stated if-then relationship
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Syllogisms

Abstract:

All members of category A are members of category B. All members of category B are members of category C Therefore, all members of category A are members of category C

More concrete example:

All psychology students are intelligent All intelligent people are rich Therefore all psychology students are rich

Use of a Venn diagram to determine accuracy of conclusion

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Conditional Reasoning

An if then statement where the if part is the antecedent and the then statement is the consequence

If the antecedent is true, the consequence is true, or If the antecedent exists, the consequence exists Two types of valid inferences

Modus ponens Modus tollens

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Modus Ponens

Affirming the antecedent to be true Valid inference:

If a person is intelligent, then they are rich. Mary is intelligent, she is rich Mary is not intelligent, she is not rich. Wrong If one kills a lawyer, then she is dead. Valid: John killed a lawyer, she is dead Invalid: John did not kill a lawyer, she is not dead

Invalid inference: negating the antecedent

An easier example:

Modus Tollens

Concerned with the consequence works opposite to modus ponens If you kill a lawyer, then she will be dead

Invalid inference confirming the consequence

The lawyer is dead, therefore you killed her The lawyer is not dead, therefore you didnt kill her

Valid inference negating the consequence

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Other examples

If one is intelligent, then one is rich 1. John is rich, therefore he is intelligent Invalid not all rich people are intelligent 2. John is not rich, therefore he is not intelligent Valid 3. John is intelligent; he is rich Valid 4. John is not intelligent; he is not rich Invalid- you do not have to be intelligent to be rich
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Problem with the confirmation bias

Problem is we tend to want to affirm or deny the antecedent and ignore the consequence

Example: Wasson card problem

Test rule :If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has to have an even number on the other side. 2nd rule: If a letter is sealed, then it has to have a 50cent stamp
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Problem with the confirmation bias

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Decisions and Judgments

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Decisions under situations of certainty

You have all the necessary information to make a correct decision Frequently studied decisions about physical differences

Our decisions about which stimulus is the brightest , smallest, heaviest, etc. depends upon factors other than the physical difference between them Example: The determination of which of 2 lights is brightest depends upon the physical difference, but also the absolute brightness of the light, the brightness of the background, and how long the lights were visible
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Distance or discrimination effect

The greater the distance or difference between two stimuli being compared, the faster the decision about their differences Symbolic distance effect comparisons between two symbols that represent two stimuli like drawings

Differs from distance effects in that it requires semantic and other memory processes

Semantic contiguity effect

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Examples

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Judgment and decision making in situations of uncertainty

The individual is not given all the information necessary to be certain of the answer and has to use previously acquired knowledge Primary problem: lack of knowledge and misinterpretation

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Utility Maximization Theory

Humans attempt to make decisions that provide us with the maximum gain Subjective utility theory modification that takes into consideration that humans are not always objective, but take consider subjective factors

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Examples of Subjective factors

Satisficing we do not always pursue the optimal decision, but accept one that is adequate

Immediate benefit versus delayed reward discounting delayed rewards The way the problem is framed (presented) is important
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Example 1 of framing

You go to New York and decide to go to a Broadway play. You buy a ticket for $100 in the morning, but when you go to the theater that evening, you discover you have lost the ticket. You have plenty of money to buy another one: do you? You go to New York and decide to go to a Broadway play and tickets cost $100. You go to the theater that evening and when you start to pay for your ticket, you discover you have lost $100. You have plenty of money to buy a ticket: do you?
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Example 2 of framing

Subjects has to make 2 decisions: Decision 1:

A. A sure gain of $240 or B 25% chance of winning $1000 and a 75% chance of winning nothing C. A sure loss of $750 or D. 75% chance of losing$1000 and 25% chance of losing nothing
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Decision 2:

Possible outcomes

A and C:

A sure loss of $510

75% chance of losing $1000 and only a 25% chance of winning not good odds $240 - $1000 = -$760 $240 - $0 = +$240 $1000 - $750 = +$250 $0 - $750 = -$750
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B and D:

A and D:

B and C:

Use of algorithms

A specific solution procedure that if used correctly guarantees a correct solution Identify all possible solutions and try each one until you find the one that works The use of Algorithms is not trial and error

Addressed in more detail in problem solving

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Heuristics

A rule of thumb strategy usually a short cut that generally works in most situations, but doesnt guarantee a correct solution

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The Representative Heuristic

Definition: a judgment rule in which an estimate of probability or likelihood of an event is determined by one of two features:

How similar the event is to the population of events it came from, or Whether the event seems similar to the process that produced it

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Examples

A town has 2 hospitals. In 1, about 45 babies are born each day, and only 15 are born in the other each day. On the average 50% of all babies are boys. Though not necessarily on every day. Across 1 year the hospitals recorded the number of days on which 60% or more of the babies born were males. Which hospital had more of these days or were they have the same number of these days?

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Example 2

You flip a coin 6 times. Given that flipping a fair coin is random ( a 50 -50 chance or a head or tail). Which of the following outcomes is most likely or probable?

A. B.

HHTHTT HHHTTT

Both are equally likely the probability is same on each toss.

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Example 3 the use of stereotypes

There are 100 people in a room, 70 of them are lawyers, 30 are engineers. Bill is randomly selected from this room. What is the probability he is a lawyer?

Dick is a 30-year-old man. He is married with no children. A man of high ability and high motivation he promises to be very successful. He is well liked by his colleagues.
Jack is 45-years-old, and married with 4 children. He tends to be conservative, careful, and ambitious. He shows little interest in political and social interests, and enjoys carpentry, sailing, and mathematical puzzles.
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Ignoring Base Rates

Why are more graduates first-born than second-born? Why do more hotel fires start on the 1st ten floors than the second ten floors In baseball why are more runners thrown out by pitchers on 1st base than 2nd base?

Frank is a meek and quiet man whose only hobby is playing chess. He was near the top of his college class and majored in philosophy. Is he a librarian or a business man?
Youve watched a coin toss come up heads 5 times in a row. If you bet $100 on the next toss, would you choose heads or tails?

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Availability Heuristic

A judgment rule in which ones estimates are influenced by the ease with which relevant examples can be remembered General world knowledge

Are there more words in the English language that begin with R or have an R as the 3rd letter? GM sells more Chevrolets than Cadillacs. For every Cadillac it sells how many Chevrolets does it sell?
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Other availability heuristic biases

Familiarity Bias Tversky and Kahneman (1973)

Subjects given list of 39 names, 19 womens names and 20 names of men Group 1 asked to recall all the names on the list; group 2 asked to determine if the list had more womens names or mens names

Salience and vividness biases

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Simulation heuristic

A judgment rule that involves a mental construction or imagining of outcomes, a forecasting of how some event will turn out or how it might have turned out differently under another set of circumstances

Undoing heuristic Hindsight bias Blaming the victim

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Blaming the victim

Paul normally leaves work at 5:30 and drives directly home. One day, while following his routine, Paul is broadsided by a driver who violated a stop sign and is seriously injured. Paul, feeling restless at work, leaves early to see a movie. He is broadsided by a driver who violated a stop sign and is seriously injured. Paul receives an emergency call to return home. While driving home, Paul is broadsided by a driver who violated a stop sign and is seriously injured.
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Limited knowledge as a limitation in reasoning

People who keep pushing an elevator button to make it come faster Nave physics understanding principles of motion

Limitations in processing resources What is the answer to 8X7X6X5X4X3X2X1 What is the answer to 1X2X3X4X5X6X7X8

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Group decision making

3 frequent errors

Group think Incremental-decision making Content error

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Development of reasoning in young adults

Relativistic reasoning Dialectic reasoning Systematic reasoning

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