Survey

The Asian Disease

Imagine that the United States is
preparing for the outbreak of an
unusual Asian disease that is
expected to kill 600 people. Two
alternative programs to combat
the disease have been proposed.
Assume that the exact scientific
estimates of the consequences of
the programs are as follows:

If Program A is adopted, 200

people will be saved.
If Program B is adopted, there is a
one-third probability that 600
people will be saved and a twothirds probability that no people
will be saved.
Which of the two programs would
you favor?

The Evil
Tyrant
The Evil Tyrant has taken 20
innocent civilians hostage. You
must choose between Option 1 and
Option 2.

Option 1: Execute one, release the other

19
Option 2: Spin the wheel

The Wheel
1

10

The Wheel
1

10

Death
5

The Popcorn Question

At the movies, you pay $5 for
a bag of popcorn. On the way
to your seat, you spill it all.
Question: Do you go back and
pay another $5 for another
bag of popcorn?

Whats Janet
doing now?
Janet graduated from college five
years ago. She was a philosophy
major who campaigned for prochoice candidates and worked as a
counselor in a rape-crisis center.
She once tried to organize a
boycott of a professor she said was
sexually harrassing women
students.

Whats Janet doing now?

Rank these possibilities in the
order of their likelihood:
Teacher
Bank teller
Military officer
Feminist bank teller
Social worker

The Tropical Disease

Imagine that the United States is
preparing for the outbreak of an
unusual Tropical disease that is
expected to kill 600 people. Two
alternative programs to combat
the disease have been proposed.
Assume that the exact scientific
estimates of the consequences of
the programs are as follows:

If Program A is adopted, 400

people will certainly die.
If Program B is adopted, there is a
one-third probability that no one
will die and a two-thirds
probability that 600 people will
die.
Which of the two programs would
you favor?

The Missing Five Dollars

Arriving at the movies, you
discover you have $5 less
than you thought you had.
Question: You had planned to
buy popcorn, which costs $5.
Do you still buy it?

The Monty Hall Problem

Pick a door:

A B C

The Monty Hall Problem

Pick a door:

A B C

The Monty Hall Problem

Pick a door:

B C

The Monty Hall Problem

Pick a door:

B C

Would you like to switch?

Irrational decisions that

are very hard to avoid

Asian Disease and Tropical Disease:

If Program A is adopted, 200 people will
be saved.
If Program B is adopted, there is a onethird probability that 600 people will be
saved and a two-thirds probability that
no people will be saved.
If Program A is adopted, 400 people will
certainly die.
If Program B is adopted, there is a onethird probability that no one will die and
a two-thirds probability that 600 people
will die.

Asian Disease and Tropical Disease:

If Program A is adopted, 200 people will
be saved.
If Program B is adopted, there is a onethird probability that 600 people will be
saved and a two-thirds probability that
no people will be saved.
If Program A is adopted, 400 people will
certainly die.
If Program B is adopted, there is a onethird probability that no one will die and
a two-thirds probability that 600 people
will die.

Asian Disease and Tropical Disease:

If Program A is adopted, 200 people will
be saved.
If Program B is adopted, there is a onethird probability that 600 people will be
saved and a two-thirds probability that
no people will be saved.
If Program A is adopted, 400 people will
certainly die.
If Program B is adopted, there is a onethird probability that no one will die and
a two-thirds probability that 600 people
will die.

The Evil Tyrant

Option 1: Execute 1, let 19 go
Option 2: Spin the wheel
1

10

4
5

8
7

Option 1: Execute 1, let 19 go

Under this option, each hostage
has a 5% chance of dying.

Option 2: Spin the wheel

Under this option, each hostage
has a 10% chance of dying.

The Popcorn Question:

Do you buy another
bag?
The Missing Five
Dollars:
Do you buy popcorn?

Whats Janet doing now?

Rank these possibilities in the
order of their likelihood:
Teacher
Bank teller
Military officer
Feminist bank teller
Social worker

Whats Janet doing now?

Rank these possibilities in the
order of their likelihood:
Teacher
Bank teller
Military officer
Feminist bank teller
Social worker

The Monty Hall Problem

Pick a door:

YES!
B C

Would you like to switch?

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15 16 17 18 19 20 21

9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21

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