Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Realities in Mexico's
Water Sector
May 2010
Vincent Lencioni
LGA Consulting
Outline of 4 Part Presentation
A. Current Situation in Water Sector
– Problems & current Infrastructure – Public & Private
B. Opportunities in Water Sector
– Public & Private Sector Needs, Budgets, Activities
– Preferred Products, Targeted Segments, Goals
C. Opportunities in the Context of Sector Realities
– Regional challenges that limit access to and the
viability of many public and private sector projects.
D. LGA Assistance: How and why we can help.
A. Current Situation - Outline
• Brief Water Sector Overview
• Brief Analysis of state of Mexican
economy in the context of water sector
• 10 Sector Problems & Challenges
• Wastewater treatment – Industrial & public
• Treatment Plants – Industrial & public
A. Water Sector Overview
Sector Dynamic Economic Climate Affect
• Geographical Challenges • 2009: Worst since ‘32
– North vs South – Construction down 7%
– Coastal vs Interior
– Industry fell 20%
• Decentralization – Govt revenue & spending
– 13 Water Basins
– States & Municipalities – Water: Public > Private
– Funding Realities • 2010: “Moderate
• NIP & Water Plans Reactivation”
• Gov’t Bid Dynamic – Public still strong, private
– Nafta weakness, problems up 2nd half, solid macro.
identifying & following bids
• 2011: Recovery Year
• Private vs. Public – Construction & Industry up
– Water: Private & Public up
A. Related Economic Info
• GDP • Sector Dynamic 2009
– 2009:Down 8% – Agriculture*: Up 1.8%
– 2010 & 2001: up 4% each – Water/Electricity* Up 1.2%
– Food & Beverage*, Paper*, Chemicals*: -1 to
2%
• Infrastructure Spending: $47.8 B in 2010 = – Clothing/Textile: -10%
5% of GDP – Machinery/Equip: -20%
– Both Historic figures • 2-5% Growth in 2010
– 5% was target for healthy growth
• Construction
• Mexican Imports – 2009: Down 7%
• 2010: Up 10%; 1st Qtr: Up 12% – 2010: Up 2-4.6%
• Exports up 10% as well • Slow 1st Half, 8% last Qtr
• By Segment (1st Qtr, 2010) – 2011: Recovery Year
• Consumer: 37% up (31)
• Intermed: 20% up (23)
• Capital: 11% down (22)
• Public Revenue
• Oil Price: $60 (2009) to 75 (2010)
• Source for 1/3 of govt spending
• Mexico Demographics • Balance of Payments solid
• 120 million population • Fiscal/Financial Stability
• 40% (1-19); 24% (25-34)
• Banks: Revenue up 20%, 4th Qtr 2010
A. Crime & Violence: Impact on
Business
• Fighting the Drug Cartels: Past vs. Present
– Right fight, hard to win, negative image
– Historic military and US cooperation
– Guns vs Drugs; Supply vs. Demand
• Business Travel Concerns for Foreigners
– North/Pacific Coast vs. South/Central
– Victim Profile Dynamic: 7000 deaths in 2009
• 93% = Police, Military, Narcos
• Kidnapping (locals only) vs. General Crime (anyone)
– Federal Oversight Up, Local Police Concerns Persist
• Only 6% of Mexican companies consider crime & violence to have
major impact on business activities
– Traditional international & domestic economic concerns
A. 10 Water Sector Problems
& Challenges
1. Geographical Challenges
– 2/3 of water in the south: 25% population, 15% GDP
– 1/3 of water in the north/center: 75% population, 85% GDP
– No water transfer system, No water collection strategies
2. Overexploited aquifers: 30%
– 653 aquifers: over 100 severely overexploited, 68 close
3. From 18,000 m3 (1950) to 4,400 m3 (2010) per capita
– But Mexico is still 7th in world rankings: 1. Canada (90,767), 2. Brasil (45,039), 3.
Argentina (20,707), 6. US (6,902)
– Area of need but society that does not perceive the need yet
4. Conagua says 40% national wastewater treated, probably less
– 12% Federal District, 18% Jalisco, 21% State of Mexico
– Only 5 states treat over 2/3 of their municipal waste
– Other sources: Industrial below 10%, municipal below 20%
A. 10 Water Sector Problems
& Challenges
5. Traditional Water Statistics: Urban good, Rural needs work
– Potable Water Coverage: 97% Urban, only 76% Rural
– Sewer/Sanitary Coverage, 96% Urban,only 63% Rural
6. Law requires 100% meter coverage, reality: 65% or less
– 80% coverage in large (>250,000) cities, minimal to none in smaller areas
– Even where coverage exists, water often does not flow because of (a) lack of water, (b) poor
delivery systems, or © lack of pressure
– Water authorities tend to buy cheap meters that do not last & breakdown
7. 50-60% of water lost in delivery system, little recent improvement
8. Water Infrastructure Competitiveness in Latam
– Rated far below Brazil, Chile, Columbia, and Argentina
– 20% below Latin America average, even behind Peru
9. 64th in Infrastructure Index of Competitiveness
– Well below Brazil as well as Chile (35) and Panama (46)
10. Known for having some of the slowest and most bureaucratic water project
development processes in Latin America – heard/said in lots of quarters.
A. Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants,
Installed Capacity, Treated Volume (1992-2008)
Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants 1992-2008
Biochemical
Oxygen
Demand
tons/year 1.8 0.42 2.36 1.94
Cost of Annual
Wastewater Wastewater Treatment accumulated Operational
Discharge Treatment Discharge Needs investment Cost
At Present At Present In 2020 In 2020 In 2020 In 2020
(millions of (millions of
dollars) dollars)
Cost of Annual
Wastewater Wastewater Deficit accumulated Operational
Discharge Present Discharge in treatment investment Cost
At Present Capacity In 2020 In 2020 till 2020 in 2020
(millions of (millions of
dollars) dollars)
Km3/year (m3/s)
(Price per additional m3) $3.09 $8.88 $4.35 $4.04 $3.42 $2.42
(Price per additional m3) $3.16 $10.08 $4.35 $4.04 $5.30 $2.42
C. Tips on winning projects
• Foreign company • Tips for Success
problems – Develop relationships with
– Importance of Mexican Mexican intermeds
intermediary – But don´t give exclusivity
• Public: all bids must go nor rely on them
through local entity exclusively for
• Private: Less so but still • Market Information
key to success • Business Development
– Keep tabs on projects – Early access to entity
• Intermediaries not always • Spec Development key
proactive or don´t/won´t • “Right” Intermediary key
share info
– Competition & Bribes – Bring Financing Plan
• Non-US companies: get – Avoid non-Professional
business at any cost. Water Officials & Entities