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Phan Tich tcdn-ch1-5
Phan Tich tcdn-ch1-5
CHNH DOANH
NGHIP
MC TIU
nh gi thc trng v d bo
tng lai ti chnh doanh nghip, lm
c s ra cc quyt nh qun tr ti
chnh doanh nghip, quyt nh u t
hay qun l nh nc i vi cc
doanh nghip.
CHNG I :
TNG QUAN VE PHAN
TCH TAI CHNH DOANH
NGHIEP
2 / Muc tieu:
*oi vi nh quan tr doanh
nghiep:
=>a ra cac quyet nh
quan tr TCDN
*oi vi ngi bn ngoai
doanh nghiep:
=>a ra quyt nh cho vay, gp
vn
*oi vi c quan thu:
7
b/ iu kin so sanh:
Ging nhau v:
- Ni dung kinh t
- n v tnh
- Thi gian
- Khng gian
c/ K thut so sanh :
- Theo chieu doc: xem xet ty
trong cua tng ch tieu so vi
tong the.
- Theo chieu ngang: xem xt s bien
oi cua mot ch tieu nao o.
10
Q = Q1 Qo
12
13
Tong hp mc o
anh hng cua cac
nhan to:
a + b = Q (kim tra)
. Nhn xt:
Nu c n nhn t nh hng th c
n+1 nhn xt
14
Mc chnh lch: Q = Q1 - Q0
15
a0
a1
Q
xc1
xc0
b1
b0
* Thc hien phng phap thay the:
- Thay the bc 1: (nhan to a )
ao
a1
xc o
xc o
a =
bo to b
cua nhan
ao
: Mc o anh hng
- Thay athe bc
2: (nhan to b )
a
1
1
xc o
xc o
bo
b = b1
cua nhan to b
: Mc o anh hng
16
a1
a1
c =
xc1 xc o
b1 tobc1
cua nhan
: Mc o anh hng
17
V du :
T.kho CK=T.kho K+Nhap trong ky
Xuat trong ky
Q=a+bc
19
nhan
nhan
nhan
20
DT
TS
VCSH
ROE =
21
22
CHNG II:
PHAN TCH C CU
TAI CHNH DOANH
NGHIEP
24
28
30
Vo
n chush
u
Tysua
t t ta
i tr
Nguo
n vo
n
N
Tysuat
n
NV
N
Tysuat
N /VCSH
Von
CSH
31
Bo th : VLR > 0
Mo him : VLR < 0
Dung ha : VLR = 0
33
To
ng ta
i sa
n
He so n:
N DH
- He so n di hn so vi tai san
i sa
n DH
di han: Ta
N NH
Ta
i sa
n NH
34
- Cac he so n cang
thap => mc o an
toan von vay cang cao.
- Cac he so n cang cao
=> kha nang thanh
toan cang kho khan.
35
Pha
i thu
Pha
i tra
> 1 : B chiem dung von
nhieu hn s dung von
cua cac DN khac.
< 1 : S dung von cua cac
DN khac nhieu hn b chiem
dung vn.
36
To
ng ta
i sa
n
To
ng n
N nga
n han
. > 1,5: KNTT rat tot.
. T 1-1,5: KNTT bnh thng, chap
nhan c.
. T 0,5-1: kho khan trong viec
thanh toan.
. < 0,5: DN rat kho khan.
39
Ta
i sa
n nga
n han - Ha
ng to
n kho
N nga
n han
. > 1: KNTT rat tot.
. T 0,5-1: KNTT bnh thng, chap
nhan c.
. T 0,3-0,5: Kho khan trong viec
thanh toan.
. < 0,3: rat kho khan.
40
Vo
n ba
ng tie
n
N nga
n han
. > 0,5 : KNTT ngay rat tot.
. T 0,3-0,5: KNTT ngay bnh thng,
chap nhan c.
. T 0,15-0,3: kho khan trong viec
thanh toan ngay.
. < 0,15: rat kho khan trong viec
thanh toan ngay.
41
N da
i han
- Kha nang thanh toan n dai
Li nhua
n sautra:
thue K ha
u hao
han en
han
N da
i han e
n han tra
42
Li nhua
n tr
c thuevala
i vay(EBIT)
Chi ph la
i vay
43
Nguyn tc:
-TS tng hay NV gim => phn tng gim
c ct SDV
-TS gim hay NV tng => phn gim tng
c ct bin ng NV
CHNG III:
PHN TCH KT QU
HOT NG SXKD
45
T
T
T
T
l
l
l
l
GVHB/DT
chi ph bn hng/DT
chi ph QLDN/DT
chi ph li vay/DT
47
T
T
T
T
sut
sut
sut
sut
LN gp/DT
EBIT/DT
EBT/DT
EAT/DT
48
49
50
52
54
IV.CHU K VN LU NG
(Chu K Ngn Qu)
1. Khi nim:
Chu k VL c tnh t lc DN
tr tin mua hng cho n lc thu
c tin bn hng.
55
2. Cch tnh:
CK VL = SN tn kho BQ
+ SN thu tin BH BQ
- SN tr tin MH BQ
56
S NGY TN KHO
BNH QUN
HngTn Kho BQ
SNTK BQ = ----------------GVHB BQ 1 NGY
57
58
Phi tr ngi bn BQ
SNTTMH BQ=------------------DS mua chu BQ 1 ngy
59
V D:
(VT:1.000.000)
Ch tiu
31/12/12 31/12/13 31/12/14
Phi thu KH 2800
3200
2300
HTK
6320
6240
7600
Phi tr NB 2550
1700
2380
60
V D:
Ch tiu
2013
Doanh thu BC 27500
GVHB
19100
Doanh s MC 18900
2014
31000
22000
23300
61
CHU K VL
Ch tiu
SNTKBQ
SNTTBHBQ
SNTTMHBQ
CK VL
2013 2014
118
39
40
117
113
32
32
113
Chnh
lch
-5
-7
-8
-4
62
MC TiT KiM VL
Mc tit kim VL =
Mc tit kim tn kho
+ Mc tit kim phi thu KH
- Mc tit kim gia tng phi tr
NB
63
Mc tit kim
CLSN
=
*
tn kho
TKBQ
GVHB
BQ 1 ngy
64
Mc tit kim
CLSN
DTBC
=
*
phi thu KH
TTBHBQ
BQ 1 ngy
65
Mc tit kim
CLSN
=
DSMC
*
TTMHBQ
BQ 1 ngy
66
V/ Phan tch s am
bao nhu cau VC va
VL:
1/ Nhu cau VC va nguon
am bao:
- Nhu cau VC phu thuoc quy
mo SXKD.
- Phan tch s am bao nhu cau
VC la so sanh gia nhu cau
VC va nguon von C(ngun
67
Phi
thu KH
69
70
71
CHNG IV:
PHN TCH
LU CHUYN TiN T
I. ngha ca LCTT v phn tch LCTT :
- Cho thy cc ngun tin c c trong k
- Cho thy mc ch s dng tin trong k
- nh gi kh nng thanh ton, u t
- D bo dng tin tng lai
72
73
*CHI:
74
2. LCTT t hot ng u t:
*THU :
*CHI:
76
77
*CHI :
79
80
81
82
84
3. Kh nng t ch ti chnh ca DN :
85
CHNG VII:
1/ Khai niem:
* Theo trng phi hin i:
- Ri ro l s bt trc c th mang
n nhng tn tht, cng c th mang
n nhng li ch, c hi.
- Ri ro l s bt n dn n kt qu
khc vi k vng.
87
89
2.3/ Cn c bn cht:
- RR thun ty
- RR phn tn
- RR d bo
90
91
2.5/ Cn c mc nh hng:
- RR h thng( RR th trng): o bng
h s B-ta.
- RR phi h thng: c th loi tr thng
qua vic a dng ha.
92
94
II/ nh gi ri ro:
1/ Xc sut:
2/ lch chun:
3/ H s B-ta:
4/ Phn tch nhy:
5/ Ch s Z: (Z score)
95
nhy
Phn tch nhy: l phn tch
mi quan h gia cc i lng
u vo khng an ton v cc i
lng u ra.
96
97
Ch s Z
(Hm s chm im Z)
Z = aX1 + bX2 + cX3 + dX4 + eX5
-X1 = EBIT/TS
-X2 = LN gi li ly k/TS
-X3 = VLR/TS
-X4 = Doanh Thu/TS
-X5 = Gi th trng ca VCSH/Ga
tr s sch ca n phi tr
98
Ch s Z c dng cho hu
ht cc ngnh,cc loi hnh
doanh nghip nh sau:
Z = 0,0105X1 + 0,0326X2 + 0,0656X3 + 0,0672X5
Ch : X4 c a ra v n khc nhau qu
ln gia cc ngnh(TM v DV ln hn SX).
- Z>2,6: an ton,cha c nguy c ph s n.
- 1,1Z2,6: cnh bo, c th c nguy c ph sn.
- Z<1,1: nguy him, nguy c ph sn cao.
99
Tng ch s Z gim kh
nng ph sn:
Gim TS m vn gi quy m v hiu qu
hot ng: bn TS khng hot ng
Tng doanh thu, tit kim chi ph
C chnh sch phn phi LN, tr c t c h p
l
Tng th gi c phiu
Gim n
100
101
Doanhthuthcte
Doanhthuhoa
von
He
sorui
ro hoat
ong
Doanhthuthc
te
102
SLTT an toa
n SLTT thc te- SLTT ho
a vo
n
San
lng
antoan
He
so
san
lng
antoan
San
lngthcte
103
Thi
gianantoan
Thi
gianthc
te
- Thi
gianhoa
vo
Thi
gianantoan
He
so
thi
gianantoan
Thi
gianthc
te
104
105
106
N phai
tra
He
so
n
Tong
nguon
von
Tong
tai
san
on
bay
tai
chnh
Vonchu
s hu
107
108
109
111