Professional Documents
Culture Documents
7
International Arbitrage And
Interest Rate Parity
Chapter Objectives
To explain the conditions that will
result
in various forms of international arbitrage,
along with the realignments that will occur
in response; and
7-2
International Arbitrage
Arbitrage can be loosely defined as
capitalizing on a discrepancy in quoted
prices to make a riskless profit.
7-3
International Arbitrage
As applied to foreign exchange and
international money markets, arbitrage
takes three common forms:
locational arbitrage
triangular arbitrage
7-4
Locational Arbitrage
Locational arbitrage is possible when a
banks buying price (bid price) is higher
than another banks selling price (ask price)
for the same currency.
Example
Bank C Bid Ask
NZ$
$.635 $.640
Triangular Arbitrage
Triangular arbitrage is possible when a
Example
British pound ()
Malaysian ringgit (MYR)
British pound ()
Bid
Ask
$1.60
$.200
MYR8.10
$1.61
$.202
MYR8.20
Triangular Arbitrage
US$
Value of
in $
Value of
MYR in $
Value of
in MYR
MYR
7-8
$/ quote
by Bank Y
7 - 10
$/ quote
by Bank B
$/ quote
by Bank C
7 - 11
Differential
between U.S.
and British
interest rates
7 - 12
7 - 13
Derivation of IRP
When IRP exists, the rate of return
achieved from covered interest arbitrage
should equal the rate of return available in
the home country.
Derivation of IRP
End-value of a $1 investment in the home
country = 1 + iH
(1+iF)
i.e.
forward = (1 + home interest rate) 1
premium
(1 + foreign interest rate)
7 - 16
If S = $.10/peso, then
6-month forward rate = S (1 + p)
.10 (1 _ .0094)
$.09906/peso
7 - 17
(1+iF)
(1+iF)
7 - 18
IRP line
Z
2
B
Forward
Discount (%)
-3
Y
-1
X
3 Forward
Premium (%)
-2
W
-4
7 - 19
Forward
Discount (%)
-3
-1
1
-2
-4
3 Forward
Premium (%)
Zone of potential
covered interest
arbitrage by
local investors
7 - 20
7 - 21
Interpretation of IRP
When IRP exists, it does not mean that
both local and foreign investors will earn
the same returns.
7 - 22
7 - 23
7 - 24
IRP line
Zone of
potential
covered
interest
arbitrage
by local
investors
7 - 25
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
i$
2%
2%
0%
0%
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
i
>
i
2000
2001
$
2%
i$ i
Q1
Q3
Q3
Q1
2002
Q1
Q3
Q3
Q1
Q1
Q3
2003
Q3
Q1
i$ = i
0%
i $ < i
Forward premium of
-2%
Q3
Q1
premium
2001
2%2000
Q3
Q1
2002
Q3
Q1
2003
Q3
Q1
Q3
0%
discount
-2%
Q3
Q1
2000
2001
Q3
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
7 - 27