Prepared on 2 September 2010

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

()

. , CFA,
CFP

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

(

)
1.
2.
3.
4.

(Automatic Investment
Workshop)
2

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

1. ...

(
)

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

...

()
(

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

Ratio
Survival

Survival Ratio

Independence, but still rely on

Independence, but still rely on

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

Wealth

Ratio

Wealth Ratio

,
*
, ,
Financial Freedom
:

,
.

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

2.

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

,
<----
,

<----
,

,
<---- , ,

:



()
8

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

...

10

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

3.

11

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

1999-2009

Geo. Mean

12

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

1999-2009
Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Geo.Mean

SET
100
36.27%136
-43.15%77
15.20%89
20.51%108
120.52%237
-11.10%211
10.43%233
-0.72%231
30.40%301
-44.12%168
68.89%284
9.97%

100 199
13

Total Return = Price Return +

Dividend Yield
.
,
CFA, CFPTM

:
1.

2. Price return Dividend Yield
3. Dividend Yield 3.45% 2008
858.10 1999
Dividend Yield 8.32%
4. ()

14

( )
()

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

(
)
(
)
15

 (Asset
Allocation)

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

SET50

JUMBO25

16

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

30%
Money Market

30%
Stock

40%
Bond

Conservative
20%
Money Market
50%
Stock

30%
Bond

Moderate

20%
Bond

10%
Money
Market

70%
Stock

Aggressive

Geo. Mean

17

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

30% 70% No timing

18

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

50% 50% No timing

19

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

70% 30% No timing

20

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

(Market Timing)

(Expected Return)

10

Earning Yield (Earning/Price)

21

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

E/P P/E

(EPS) 3
(P)

30

P = 30 , E = 3
P/E =30/3 = 10
E/P = EPS/Price = 3/30 = 10%
E/P = 1/PE = 1/10 =10%

P/E 20
E/P = 1/PE = 1/20 = 5%

P/E

E/P

(EarningYield)

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

12.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

20.0% 16.7% 14.3% 12.5% 11.1% 10.0% 8.3%

6.7%

5.0%

4.0%
22


, ,

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

(Earning Yield : E/P)

E/P P/E


P/E

www.set.or.th

10 (10-Year Government Bond Yield)

www.thaibma.or.th

1
(1-Year Deposit Rate)
23

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

1999-

1.

2.
3.

[(1)-(2)]

200

13.04
7

1926-20

1926-20

05
12.01%

05
10.17%

5.38%

5.38%

3.13%

3.70%

3.70%

7.18%

6.63%

4.79%

%
5.86%

24

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

( )

: S30:B40:C30 Stock 30%, Bond 40%, Cash 30

25

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

P/E

P/E E/P Earnings Yield

Yield

Premium
E/P Yield
:

(Over Optimistic)
Action :

Premium
4-7%

(Over Pessimistic
Action :

26

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

Analysis of Alternative Securities

Markets
Falling
Inflation

Recession

Early recovery
BONDS

Economy
Slowing
Down

CASH

STOCKS

COMMODITIES

Stagflation
Source: Adapted from Schabacker, Jay.
Winning in Mutual Funds

Economy
Speeding
Up

Late recovery
Inflation
Rising
27


10,000
.
,
CFA, CFPTM

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

10,000

2%

4%

5%

371,21

382,66

0
499,93

6%

8%

10%

12%

388,47

394,34

406,25

418,40

430,79

360,0

0
520,55

0
531,11

0
541,86

0
563,89

0
586,65

0
610,15

00
480,0

0
631,23

0
663,96

8
680,90

0
698,24

0
734,14

0
771,72

0
811,04

00
600,0

0
765,15

0
813,10

0
838,17

0
864,00

0
918,01

0
975,29

0
1,036,0

00
720,0

0
901,75

0
968,21

0
1,003,3

0
1,039,7

0
1,116,5

0
1,199,2

30
1,288,0

00
840,0

0
1,041,0

0
1,129,5

06
1,176,6

10
1,225,9

90
1,331,0

30
1,445,5

10
1,570,2

00
960,0

80
1,183,2

20
1,297,2

96
1,358,7

50
1,423,3

60
1,562,6

60
1,716,5

40
1,886,3

00
1,080,

00
1,328,1

90
1,471,7

56
1,549,9

80
1,632,6

80
1,812,8

20
2,014,5

30
2,240,3

000
1,200,

60

60

20

40

30

80

60

000

28

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

4.

29

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

30

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

Diversificat

ion

Tax
Benefit

Mutual
Fund Hold
ers

Cost
Advantage

0.2 - 1.5 %

Profession
al

31

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

32

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

RMF (Retirement Mutual Fund)

15
500,000
/.
()

RMF/LTF

LTF (Long Term Equity Fund)

15
500,000
()
33

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

LTF RMF

34

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

LTF/RMF

240,00 141,0

RMF

LTF

LTF/RMF

36,00 36,00 19,000

0
00
500,00 401,0

0
0
25,10 75,00 75,00 251,00 10,10 15,000

0
00
1,000, 901,0

0
0
0
0
0
115,2 150,0 150,0 601,00 55,20 60,000

* (40% 60,000.),
000
00 00
00. 00
0
0
30,000.
9,000

RMF/LTF 15%
1,500,
1,401,255,3
225,0 225,0 951,00 125,2 130,10

RMF/LTF
**

35

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

Automatic Investment
Workshop
()

36

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

37

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

38

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

The Bridge
2

(Automatic
Investment) .

39

. ,
CFA, CFP

Automatic

Investment





TM

Dollar Cost
Averaging

40

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

Dollar Cost Average

SET5
0

7.20
6.20
5.80
5.60

.. .. .. ..

..

()
5.80

()
( )
100,00 17,241

..

5.60

..

6.20

..

7.20

0
100,00 17,857
0
100,00 16,129
0
100,00 13,889
0
400,00 65,116
0

Dollar

6.14 (6.20) !
:
(6.14)
Cost

Average
Average

6.20

41

. ,
DCA

CFA, CFP

(Dollar-Cost Average)

DCA

TM

42

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

Automatic Investment
Workshop
1.
2.
3.
4.

43

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

1.
1

1,000,000

(1)

(2)

44

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

2.

:

1.
(1) ( 5 )
(2) (5 10 )
(3) ( 10 )

45

 :
()
.
,
CFA, CFPTM

2.
(1) 1

(2) 1 10
(3) 10
3.
(1) 2
(2) 2 5
(3) 5

46

. ,

CFP
:
CFA,
()
TM

4.
(1)
(2)
(3)
5.
(

)
(1)

(2)

47

:
CFA, CFP
()
TM

6.
(1) 5%
(2) 6% - 10%
(3) 10%
7.

(1)

(2)

48

:
CFA, CFP
()
TM

8.
(1)
(2)

(3)

49

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

1 1
2 2
3 3

2
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
1
8

50

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

3. :
(Model Portfolio)
( 1999 2009)

: Geometric mean

51

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

3.

(3)
50
50 (4)

()
x 10%0.50
+ (4)
0.50(3)
3%
6.50 (5)

%
%
x

52


4.

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

(1)

1,000,000
7 (2)

6 (5)

10,000(6)
5,000 (7)

(8)
5,000

53

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

Rule of Performance

wledge alone is not enough, Performance needs actio

( )
()

54

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

TMBAM Investment
Spectrum

Jumbo 25

World Equity

(TMB Money

(TMB M Plus

(TMB Jumbo

Index

Fund)

Fund)

(TMB South

25)

(TMB World

SET50

Equity Index

Fund)
Emerging

(TMB SET50)

Market Equity

(TMB

Korean

Government

Bond Fund)

Corporate

(TMB Global

Bond Fund)

Bond Fund)

(TMB Treasury

Money Fund)

Index

(TMB Gold
Fund)

(TMB Oil Fund)

(TMB Emerging

Market Equity

China
*
SET50

Equity

Index)

(TMB Bond
(TMB SET50
Index

55

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

Global Allocation Portfolio

(Asset Class)

(Conventional Asset

20%

15%

30%

20%

Income)

50%

35%

(Money Market)

Class)

(Conventional Plus

Alternative Asset Class)

(Domestic Fixed

(Domestic
Equity)

(Foreign Fixed

Income)

10%

SET50
Jumbo 25
Global
Bond

World

56

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

Happiness is not at the destination

But in the flowers you smell along the way.

57

.
,
CFA, CFPTM

. , CFA, CFP

TMBAM Call Center 1725

58