Mng nron truyn thng

v ng dng trong d bo d liu

LUN VN THC S KHOA HC
Gio vin hng dn
TS. L Hi Khi
Ngi thc hin
Trn c Minh

Ni dung
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Gii thiu.
Cc khi nim c bn v mng nron.
Mng nron truyn thng.
Thu thp, Phn tch v x l d liu.
Chng trnh d bo d liu.
Kt lun

1. Gii thiu

Mng nron nhn to xut pht t vic m phng hot ng ca

b no con ngi.
Mng nron l cc m hnh tnh ton cha cc n v x l c
kh nng truyn thng vi nhau bng cch gi cc tn hiu n
ln nhau thng qua cc lin kt c trng s.
C kh nng thch nghi, ngha l hc t cc mu thay v lp
trnh.
Cc ng dng ca mng nron:
Phn loi: tn hiu radar; xem xt cc mu bnh,
Gim nhiu: ting ni, nh tnh b nhiu,
D on/D bo : lng s dng, th trng, d on lng
bn,

2. Cc khi nim c bn v mng nron:

Mng nron c cc c trng sau:

g(aj)

zj

...

Tp cc n v x l.
Mt mc kch hot cho mi n v. x0 w
j
j0
j
Cc lin kt gia cc n v.
wj1
aj
x1

wjn
Lut lan truyn.
xn
a w x
Cc hm chuyn.
Cc u vo ngoi d liu ( lch - bias).
Phng php thu thp thng tin - Lut hc.
Mi trng trong h thng c th hot ng.
n

ji i

zj g (aj )

i 1

3. Mng nron truyn thng

3.1. Cu trc c bn
x0

bias

h0

x1

bias
y1

h1

x2

xl
Input Layer

y2

h2

w(1)ij

yn
hm
(2)
Hidden Layer w jk Output Layer

n v n:
l

aj w

(1)

ji i

n v u ra:

ak w
j 0

hj g (aj ) g ( w(1) jixi )

i 0

i 0
m

Bao gm mt s lp (1 lp vo, 1 hay

nhiu lp n v 1 lp ra).
Mi lp c mt s cc n v.
Mi n v nhn u vo t cc n
v lp trc v gi cc tn hiu
ny n cc n v lp k tip.
u ra c biu din bi mt hm
tng minh ca cc trng s v
lch.

( 2)

kj j

yk g 2(ak ) g 2( w
j 0

(2)

g ( w(1) jixi ))

kj

i 0

3.2. Kh nng th hin

Cc mng khng c cc lp n ch c kh nng gii quyt

cc bi ton kh phn tuyn tnh.

Cc mng nron vi mt lp n c th xp x kh tt bt
k mt nh x hm no t khng gian hu hn mt chiu
sang mt khng gian khc.

Cc mng nron vi 2 lp n c kh nng th hin mt

ng phn chia hay xp x mt nh x mn bt k ti mt
chnh xc bt k.

3.3. Hun luyn bng thut ton lan truyn ngc:

y l phng php thng dng nht hun luyn cho cc mng nron
truyn thng nhiu lp.
C th p dng cho cc mng truyn thng vi cc hm chuyn v cc
hm li kh vi.
Bc 1: Lan truyn xui u vo qua mng:
a0 = p
am+1 = fm+1 (Wm+1 am + bm+1), vi m = 0, 1, ..., M 1.
a = aM
Bc 2: Lan truyn nhy cm (li) ngc li qua mng:
M

M
s

2
F

n
t a , trong
m
T
s m F n m W m 1 s m 1 , vi m = M 1, ..., 2, 1.
M

Bc 3: Cui cng, cc trng s v lch c cp nht bi cng thc sau:

W m k 1 W m k s m a m 1

S dng bc :

b m k 1 b m k s m
Wm(k) = Wm(k - 1) (1 - ) sm (am 1) T,
bm(k) = bm(k - 1) - (1 - ) sm .

4. Thu thp, Phn tch v X l d liu

Xc nh yu cu v d liu
- D liu no c lin quan trc tip n bi ton .
- D liu no c th khng lin quan.
Thu thp, phn
tch d liu

Tin x l

d liu

Mng nron

Hu x l

d liu

Phn tch s b d liu (Thng k v Trc quan ha)

Kim tra tnh hp l ca d liu
Phn hoch d liu (Hun luyn/Kim tra/Kim nh)
Bin i
iu chnh gi tr v khong (0,1) hoc (-1,1)
p dng mt hm ton hc cho cc gi tr (chng hn hm
logarit hay bnh phng)
M ha cc bin s / Trch chn c trng.
Phn loi
D bo,

Ty thuc vo ng dng v qu trnh tin x l.

5. Chng trnh D bo d liu

Bi ton d bo lng s dng kh ga

5.1. Mc tiu
D on lng s dng hng gi trong 1 n 5 ngy cho cc
cng ty cung cp ga :
p ng c nhu cu trong tng lai
Ti thiu chi ph iu hnh
Lp k hoch d tr.

5.2. Cc nhn t nh hng

Cc iu kin thi tit: nhit , tc gi, ...
Thi gian: gi, ngy trong tun, thng, ngy cui tun.
Thng tin kinh t: gi ga, gi du,

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5.3. M hnh d bo
1) D liu th
Ngy
02-08-1998
02-08-1998
02-08-1998
02-08-1998
02-08-1998
02-08-1998
02-08-1998
02-08-1998

Gio

Nhiet do

Gio

Su dung

00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07

37
37
37
37
37
37
36
34

3
9
6
3
3
5
5
6

1168
1213
1316
1417
1534
1680
1819
1967

6 hiu ng

2) D liu sau x l s b
1.1.
2.2.
3.3.
4.4.
5.5.
6.6.

Nhit
Nhit

Tc
Tc
gi
gi
Gi
Gitrong
trongngy
ngy
Ngy
Ngytrong
trongtun
tun
Cui
Cuitun
tun
Thng
Thngtrong
trongnm
nm

11

5.3. M hnh d bo (tip)

3) Cu trc mng
bias

bias

Nhit
Gi
Gi
Ngy tun

Lng
S dng

Cui tun
Thng
Lp vo

Lp n

Lp ra

Hm
Hmchuyn
chuynca
cacc
ccn
nvvn
ns
sdng
dnghm
hmsigmoid
sigmoid
Hm
Hmchuyn
chuyncho
cholp
lprarallhm
hmng
ngnht
nhtg(x)
g(x)==xx
12

5.4. Cc c trng ca h thng

Tm ra s ti u cc n v trong lp n
nh gi nh hng ca h s hc v h s bc
nh gi c kh nng tng qut ha ca mng
trong khi hun luyn
D bo d liu tng lai

13

5.4. Cc c trng ca h thng (tip)

1) Xc nh cc tham s cho h thng

14

5.4. Cc c trng ca h thng (tip)

3) Hun luyn mng v kim tra kh nng tng qut ha

15

5.4. Cc c trng ca h thng (tip)

4) D bo tng lai

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5.5. Phn tch kt qu

Mng c hun luyn tt c kh nng d bo chnh
xc n 90%.
H s hc v h s bc c nh hng rt nhiu n
thi gian hun luyn ca mng.
i vi n v lp ra, hm chuyn s dng l sigmoid
hay hm ng nht khng c khc bit ng k.
Ty thuc vo phc tp ca bi ton, chng trnh
c thi gian hun luyn, s n v s dng trong lp n
khc nhau. chn la c cu trc ti u, c th p
dng phng php Th-sai (Trial-and-errors).

17

5.6. Cc bc thc hin

Di y l cc bc chnh khi thc hin thit k v thc thi mng nron cho bi ton d bo:
1. Chn la cc bin.
2. Thu thp d liu.
3. Tin x l d liu.
4. Phn chia tp d liu thnh cc tp: hun luyn, kim tra, kim nh.
5. Xc nh cu trc mng:
s lp n.
s nron trong cc lp n.
s nron u ra.
cc hm chuyn.
6. Xc nh tiu chun nh gi (hm li).
7. Hun luyn mng.
8. Thc thi trong thc t.
Trong khi thc hin, khng nht thit phi theo th t cc bc m c th quay li cc bc
trc , c bit l bc Hun luyn v La chn cc bin tham gia u vo.

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6. Kt lun
1) Mng nron l cc b xp x a nng. Chng c li im
so vi cc cch tip cn truyn thng: khng yu cu d
liu phi y .
2) Chng trnh D bo c xy dng v p dng th
nghim cho d liu lng s dng kh ga (ly trn Internet)
c kh nng d bo rt tt.
3) Cc m hnh tng t c th xy dng cho cc bi ton d
bo khc nh: in, nc, d on th trng, chng
khon, lu lng giao thng, lng bn ca cc sn
phm, chng no nhng mi lin h gia cc
u vo v u ra c xc nh bng thc t v l thuyt.
4) Cc thut ton ci tin c th p dng tng cng
hiu nng ca mng.
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XIN CM N!

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