N.

Gregory Mankiw

Principles of
Economics Sixth Edition

27
The Basic Tools of
Finance Premium
PowerPoint
Slides by
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Ron
 Bab ini ingin menjawab pertanyaan-
pertanyaan seperti berikut:
Apa yg dimaksud dengan present value? Ba-
gaimana pemanfaatannya untuk membanding-
kan nilai uang dalam kurun waktu yg berbeda?
Kenapa orang menghindari risiko? Bagaimana
mereka dapat memanfaatkan asuransi, dan apa
yg dimaksud dengan diversification to manage
risk?
Apa yg menentukan nilai aset? Apa yg dimaksud
dengan? Kenapa beating the market nearly
impossible?
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 Introduction

Sistem keuangan
mengkoordinasikan
tabungan dan investasi.
Lembaga keuangan mengambil keputusan tentang
alokasi sumber daya dari waktu ke waktu, sekaligus
mengendalikan risiko yang timbul dari kegiatan tsb.
Finance mempelajari proses pengambilan
keputusan dimaksud
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 Present Value: The Time Value of Money

Untuk memperbandingkan nilai jumlah uang

tertentu dari waktu ke waktu,, digunakan konsep
present value.
The present value of a future sum: angka yg
diperlukan sekarang untuk menghasilkan jumlah
tertentu berdasarkan tingkat suku bunga yang
berlaku
Konsep terkait: The future value of a sum: angka
yg menunjukkan nilai di masa datang (tgl tertentu)
apabila sejak sekarang dapat menerima bunga
pasar yg berlaku
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 EXAMPLE 1: A Simple Deposit
Deposito $100 di bank dengan bunga 5%.
Berapa nilai ke depan/ the future value (FV)
nya?
Dalam N tahun, FV = $100(1 + 0.05)N
Tiga tahun, FV = $100(1 + 0.05)3 = $115.76
Dua tahun, FV = $100(1 + 0.05)2 = $110.25
Satu tahun, FV = $100(1 + 0.05) = $105.00

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 EXAMPLE 1: A Simple Deposit
Deposito $100 di bank dengan bunga 5%.
Berapa nilai yad/the future value (FV)nya?
Dalam N tahun, FV = $100(1 + 0.05)N
Dalam contoh ini, $100 adalah the present value
(PV).

Jadi, FV = PV(1 + r )N , dengan r sebagai tingkat

bunga (dlm desimal).
Carilah PV: PV = FV/(1 + r ) N
N

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 EXAMPLE 2: Investment
Decision
Rumus Present value: PV = FV/(1 + r )NN
Kalau r = 0.06, maukah General Motors
mengeluarkan $100 juta untuk membangun pabrik
yg akan menghasilkan $200 juta dalam 10 th?
Pemecahan :
Dapatkan present value of $200 juta dalam 10 th:
PV = ($200 juta)/(1.06)10 = $112 juta
Jika PV > biaya pabrik, GM akan membangunnya.

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 EXAMPLE 2: Investment
Decision
Seandainya r = 0.09, maukah General Motors
membangun pabrik senilai $100 juta yang akan
menghasilkan $200 juta dalam 10 th?
Pemecahan:
Dapatkan present value $200 juta utk10 tahun:
PV = ($200 juta)/(1.09)10 = $84 juta
Jika PV < biaya pabrik, GM tak mau membangun.

Present value dapat menjelaskan kenapa

investasi turun ketika tingkat bunga naik

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 ACTIVE LEARNING 1
Present value

Anda harus memikirkan untuk membeli sebidang

tanah seluas enam are dengan harga $70,000.
Tanah tersebut akan bernilai $100,000 dalam lima
tahun.
A. Apakah anda beli kalau r = 0.05?

B. Apakah anda beli kalau r = 0.10?

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 ACTIVE LEARNING 1
Answers

Anda fokus pada keinginan membeli tanah seluas 6 are

seharga $70,000. kapling tersebut akan bernilai $100,000
dalam waktu 5 tahun.
A. Apakah anda akan beli kapling tsb kalau bunga
sebesar = 0.05?
PV = $100,000/(1.05)5 = $78,350.
PV kapling > harga kapling tsb.
Ok, silahkan beli.
B. Bagaimana kalau bunganya sebesar = 0.10?
PV = $100,000/(1.1)5 = $62,090.
PV kapling < harga kapling tsb.
Oleh karena itu tidak beli.
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 Compounding
Compounding: akumulasi sejumlah bunga yang
diterima dari sejumlah uang yang ditambahkan
ke dalam uang tersebut.
Karena compounding, perbedaan kecil dalam
tingkat bunga dapat menyebabkan perbedaan
angka yg besar karena jangka waktu.
Contoh: Beli saham Microsoft $1000 ditahan
30 tahun.
Kalau rate of return = 0.08, FV = $10,063
Kalau rate of return = 0.10, FV = $17,450
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 The Rule of 70
The Rule of 70: kalau variabel tumbuh dengan x
persen per tahun, variabel tsb akan berlipat dua
setelah 70/x tahun.
Contoh:
Kalau tingkat bunga 5%, nilai simpanan akan
berlipat dua setelah 14 tahun.
Kalau tingkat bunga 7%, nilai simpanan akan
berlipat dua setelah10 tahun.

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 Risk Aversion
Kebanyakan orang bersifat risk aversetidak
suka ketidakpastian/uncertainty.
Contoh: anda mengundi coin.
Kalau garuda, anda menang $1000.
Kalau Rp, anda rugi $1000.
Maukah anda main undi tsb?
Kalau anda risk averse, kepedihan rugi $1000
melampaui kesenangan memperoleh $1000,
sehingga akhirnya anda tidak akan ikut dalam
undian tersebut.

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 The Utility Function
Utility:
Utility: ukuran
ukuran Utility
subyektif
subyektif atas
atas
harta
harta yg
yg
tergantung
tergantung pada
pada Current
nilai
nilai harta
harta tsb:
tsb: utility

Kalau harta naik, kurvanya

semakin mendatar karena
diminishing marginal
utility: semakin kaya,
tambahan utility yang
diperoleh dari setiap Wealth
rupiah akan semakin turun Current
wealth
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 The Utility Function and Risk Aversion
Utility
Utility gain from
winning $1000
Utility loss
from losing
$1000

Because of diminishing
marginal utility,
a $1000 loss reduces Wealth
utility more than a $1000 1000 +1000
gain increases it.

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 Managing Risk With Insurance
Cara kerja asuransi: setiap orang yg
menghadapi risiko membayar premi kepada
asuransi, dengan imbalan asuransi
menanggung (accepts) sebagian risiko tsb.
Asuransi menghimpun risiko dan membuat
mereka yang bersifat risk averse better off:
Misal, lebih mudah bagi 10,000 orang agar
masing2 menanggung 1/10,000 risiko
kebakaran rumah, dibandingkan kalau harus
sendirian menanggung risiko tersebut.

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 Two Problems in Insurance Markets
1. Adverse selection:
Bagi penantang risiko, cenderung memanfaat-
kan asuransi dan akan membelinya.
2. Moral hazard:
Orang yg berasuransi kurang insentif untuk
menghindari risiko.
Asuransi tidak mungkin menutup seluruh risiko,
sehingga harus membebani biaya lebih tinggi.
Hasinya, orang yg berisiko rendah pun juga
mengasuransikan, sehingga tak mendapatkan
keuntungan dari risk-pooling.
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 ACTIVE LEARNING 2
Adverse selection or moral hazard?

Harap ditentukan apakah contoh2 di bawah ini termasuk

adverse selection atau moral hazard.

A. Joel merokok di tempat tidur setelah menutup

asuransi kebakaran.

B. Kedua orang tua Susan kehilangan gigi2nya karena

penyakit, sehingga Susan menutup asuransi untuk
itu (dental insurance).

C. Saat Gertrude memarkir Corvettenya, ia tidak

menutup bagian atas mobilnya, karena asuransinya
menjamin setiap pencurian barang2 di dalam mobil.
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 ACTIVE LEARNING 2
Answers

A. Joel merokok di tempat tidur.

moral hazard
B. Kedua orang tua Susan kehilangan gigi karena
sakit, dan Susan menutup dental insurance.
adverse selection
C. Gertrude tidak menutup bagian atas mobilnya,
karena telah menutup asuransi untuk barang2 yg
tertinggal di mobil .
moral hazard

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 Measuring Risk
Kita dapat mengukur risiko harta kekayaan
(asset) dengan standard deviation, statistik yg
mengukur volatilitas variabelberfluktuasi
seperti apa?.
Semakin besar standard deviation dari
pengembalian asetnya, risikonya semakin besar.

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 Reducing Risk Through Diversification

Diversification menurunkan risiko, dengan

mengganti satu risiko dengan risiko2 kecil yg
cukup banyak dan tidak berkaitan.
Portofolio terdiversifikasi adalah portofolio yg
mencakup aset2 yg returnnya tidak berkaitan:
Beberap aset menghasilkan return tinggi,
sedangkan yg lain rendah.
Antara yg berreturn tinggi dengan yg rendah
saling mengimbangi, sehingga hasil
penanaman tersebut cenderung sedang. Hal
tersebut relatif lebih konsisten dibandingkan
dengan return masing2 aset.
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 Reducing Risk Through Diversification

Diversifikasi akan menurunkan firm-specific

risk, yg akan memengaruhi perusahaan ybs
sendiri.
Diversifikasi tidak dapat mengurangi market
risk, yg memengaruhi semua perusahaan yg
ada di pasar modal.

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 Reducing Risk Through Diversification

50 Increasing the number

of stocks reduces firm-
Standard dev of
portfolio return

40 specific risk.
30

20 But
market
10 risk
remains.
0
0 10 20 30 40
# of stocks in portfolio
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 The Tradeoff Between Risk and Return

Tradeoff:
Riskier assets pay a higher return, yg rata2, dapat
mengimbangi (compensate) risiko ekstra untuk
tetap menahannya (investasi).
Sebagai contoh, lebih dari 200 tahun, rata2 return
saham adalah sebesar 8%. Dalam jangka pendek
obligasi pemerintah menghasilkan 3%.

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 The Tradeoff Between Risk and Return

Contoh : seandainya anda membagi portofolio

anda ke dalam dua kelas aset:
Sekelompok aset (berupa saham) berisiko:
dengan return rata2 = 8%, dan standard dev. =
20%
Aset yang aman dengan return 3% dan
standard dev. = 0%
Risiko dan returnnya tergantung persentase dari
masing2 kelompok aset tersebut (antara yg aman
dengan yg berisiko)

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 The Tradeoff Between Risk and Return
Increasing
the share of
stocks in the
portfolio
increases
the average
return but
also the risk.

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 Asset Valuation
Ketika menentukan apakah akan membeli saham
suatu perusahaan, anda dapat membandingkan
harga saham dengan nilai perusahaan ybs.
Kalau harga saham > nilai prshn, saham tsb
overvalued.
Kalau harga saham < nilai prshn, saham tsb
undervalued, sedangkan
Kalau harga saham = nilai prshn, saham tsb
fairly valued (wajar).

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 ACTIVE LEARNING 3
Valuing a share of stock

Kalau anda membeli saham AT&T hari ini,

Anda dapat menjualnya setelah 3 th seharga
$30.
Anda akan menerima dividen sebesar $1 pada
akhir setiap tahun sampai 3 tahun.
Kalau tingkat bunga saat ini adalah 10%, berapa
nilai saham AT&T hari ini?

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 ACTIVE LEARNING 3
Answers

amount
when you present value of
you will
will receive it the amount
receive
$1 in 1 year $1/(1.1) = $ .91
$1 in 2 years $1/(1.1)2 = $ .83
$1 in 3 years $1/(1.1)3 = $ .75
$30 in 3 years $30/(1.1)3 = $22.54

Nilai saham AT&T sama dengan jumlah dari angka2

yang ada kolom terakhir, yaitu: $25.03
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 Asset Valuation
Nilai selembar saham
= PV setiap dividen yg akan dibayarkan
+ PV harga yg akan diterima kalau menjual
saham tersebut
Masalah: saat anda membeli saham, tidak tahu
bagaimana dividen maupun harganya nanti.
Salah satu cara untuk menilai saham adalah dg:
fundamental analysis, yaitu studi tentang laporan
keuangan dan prospeknya di kemudian hari, untuk
menghitung nilainya

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 ACTIVE LEARNING 4
Show of hands survey

Anda mempunyai hubungan brokerage dengan

Merrill Lynch. Broker anda memberi tahu tentang
saham tertentu yg berdasarkan informasi
diperkirakan perusahaan ybs akan sangat
menguntungkan/profitable.
Apakah anda akan membeli saham dimaksud?
A. Yes
B. No
C. Tidak, sampai membaca prospektus
D. Apa yg dimaksud dengan prospectus?
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 The Efficient Markets Hypothesis
Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH):
teori yg menunjukkan bahwa harga aset akan
mencerminkan semua informasi tentang nilai
aaset yg lazim diumumkan ke publik.

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 Implications of EMH
1. Pasar saham adalah informationally efficient:
setiap harga saham mencerminkan semua
informasi tentang nilai perusahaan.
2. Nilai saham mengikuti suatu random walk:
harga saham hanya akan berubah kalau ada
informasi baru (berita) tentang nilai perusahaan
ybs. Padahal berita tak dapat diduga, sehingga
pergerakan harga saham juga sulit diprediksi.
3. Sulit orang untuk secara sistematis menundukkan
pasar (beat the market). Sesaat ketika berita
sampai pada anda, manajer bidang mutual fund
sudah berbuat sesuatu.
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 Index Funds vs. Managed Funds
Index fund: adalah mutual fund membeli semua
saham yg tersedia di dalam indeks saham/ a
given stock index.
Lazimnya, mutual fund bertujuan untuk hanya
membeli saham2 terbaik.
Biaya kegiatan managed funds lazimnya lebih
tinggi dari index funds.
Berkat EMH, return terhadap actively managed
funds tidak secara konsisten melampaui return
index funds.

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 Index Funds vs. Managed Funds
20012006 2006
annualized expense
return ratio

S&P 500 (index fund) 6.2% .351

Managed large cap funds 5.9 1.020

S&P MidCap 400 (index fund) 10.9 .535

Managed mid cap funds 8.1 1.458

S&P SmallCap 600 (index fund) 12.5 .550

Managed mid cap funds 10.3 1.272

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 Market Irrationality
Banyak orang percaya bahwa pergerakan
harga saham a.l dipengaruhi aspek psikhologis:
J.M. Keynes: stock prices driven by animal
spirits, waves of pessimism and optimism
Alan Greenspan: 1990s stock market boom
due to irrational exuberance
Bubbles muncul ketika para spekulator membeli
overvalued assets karena mengharap harga
akan terus naik.
Kapan mulai irrasional, tidak diketahui pasti.

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 CONCLUSION
This chapter has introduced some of the basic
tools people use when they make financial
decisions.
The efficient markets hypothesis teaches that a
stock price should reflect the companys
expected future profitability.
Fluctuations in the stock market have important
macroeconomic implications, which we will study
later in this course.

2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as
37
permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
 SUMMARY

The present value of any future sum is the

amount that would be needed today, given
prevailing interest rates, to produce that future
sum.
Because of diminishing marginal utility of wealth,
most people are risk-averse. Risk-averse
people can manage risk with insurance, through
diversification, and by choosing a portfolio with a
lower risk and lower return.

2012 Cengage
2012 Cengage
Learning.Learning.
All Rights
AllReserved.
Rights Reserved.
May notMay
be copied,
not be copied,
scanned,scanned,
or duplicated,
or duplicated,
in wholeinorwhole
in part,
or in
except
part,for
except
use as
for use as
38
permitted
permitted
in a license
in a distributed
license distributed
with a certain
with a certain
productproduct
or service
or service
or otherwise
or otherwise
on a password-protected
on a password-protected
website website
for classroom
for classroom
use. use.
 SUMMARY

The value of an asset equals the present value

of all payments its owner will receive. For a
share of stock, these payments include
dividends plus the final sale price.
According to the efficient markets hypothesis,
financial markets are informationally efficient,
a stock price always equals the markets best
guess of the firms value, and stock prices follow
a random walk as new information becomes
available.

2012 Cengage
2012 Cengage
Learning.Learning.
All Rights
AllReserved.
Rights Reserved.
May notMay
be copied,
not be copied,
scanned,scanned,
or duplicated,
or duplicated,
in wholeinorwhole
in part,
or in
except
part,for
except
use as
for use as
39
permitted
permitted
in a license
in a distributed
license distributed
with a certain
with a certain
productproduct
or service
or service
or otherwise
or otherwise
on a password-protected
on a password-protected
website website
for classroom
for classroom
use. use.
 SUMMARY

Some economists question the efficient markets

hypothesis, and believe that irrational
psychological factors also influence asset prices.

2012 Cengage
2012 Cengage
Learning.Learning.
All Rights
AllReserved.
Rights Reserved.
May notMay
be copied,
not be copied,
scanned,scanned,
or duplicated,
or duplicated,
in wholeinorwhole
in part,
or in
except
part,for
except
use as
for use as
40
permitted
permitted
in a license
in a distributed
license distributed
with a certain
with a certain
productproduct
or service
or service
or otherwise
or otherwise
on a password-protected
on a password-protected
website website
for classroom
for classroom
use. use.