Decision Making in Uncertainty

Conditions

:Prepared By

:Supervisor
Dr. Ayoub Al-Sawalha

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 Five Commandments of Decision Making
Under Uncertainty


Complex environments often instead call for-"1
simple
:decision rules
collecting and processing the information necessary for
.complex decision making is costly

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: Ignorance can be bliss-"2
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Too great a focus on information gathered from the past
.may retard effective decision-making about the future

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 Five Commandments of Decision Making Under
Uncertainty

Probabilistic weights from the past may-"3

.be a fragile guide to the future
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In an uncertain environment, where statistical
probabilities are unknown, however, these approaches
.to decision-making may no longer be suitable

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 Five Commandments of Decision Making Under
Uncertainty

Other things equal, the smaller the-"4

sample, the greater the model uncertainty
and the better the performance of simple,
:heuristic strategies

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Complex rules may cause people to manage to"-5
:the rules, for fear of falling foul of them
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 Decision Making Strategies &
Uncertainty
Thompson observed that preferred decision strategies
shifted based on two kinds of uncertainty: uncertain
beliefs about the cause/effect relations involved in
producing an outcome, and uncertain preferences
regarding what outcomes would be most desirable.
Crossing these two dimensions of certainty-
uncertainty results in the following PAEI decision-
making strategy specification:

P Judgmental Strategy (Certain preferences,

Uncertain beliefs)
 When preferences are certain and it is clear how to make
them happen, all we need to do is figure out the
requirements of the task and meet them (computational). If
we know what we want but there is no totally clear
indication that the means we are considering will reach that
end, we have to exercise judgment and take some risks.
When our preferences are not clear but everybody knows
how to produce the various ends possible, we need to
weigh, balance and trade off goals and priorities to find
some effective manner of focusing our efforts. When we
arent sure about the best outcomes and wouldnt know how
to reach them anyway, inspiration is required to resolve
some radically new approach to the opportunity.

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