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You are on page 1of 45

The objective of queuing analysis is to design

systems that enable organizations to perform

optimally according to some criterion.

Possible Criteria

Maximum Profits.

Desired Service Level.

1

Introduction

understanding of the appropriate service

measurement.

Possible service measurements

Average time a customer spends in line.

Average length of the waiting line.

The probability that an arriving customer must wait

for service.

2

Elements of the Queuing Process

components:

Arrivals: Customers arrive according to some arrival

pattern.

in one or more queues for service.

3

The Arrival Process

processes

Deterministic arrival process.

Random arrival process.

The random process is more common in

businesses.

4

The Arrival Process

Under three conditions the arrivals can be modeled as a

Poisson process

Orderliness : one customer, at most, will arrive during any

time interval.

Stationarity : for a given time frame, the probability of arrivals

within a certain time interval is the same for all time intervals of

equal length.

Independence : the arrival of one customer has no influence

on the arrival of another.

5

The Poisson Arrival Process

k!

Where

l = mean arrival rate per time unit.

t = the length of the interval.

e = 2.7182818 (the base of the natural logarithm).

k! = k (k -1) (k -2) (k -3) (3) (2) (1).

6

HANKs HARDWARE Arrival Process

Poisson distribution.

Between 8:00 and 9:00 A.M. an average of 6

customers arrive at the store.

What is the probability that k customers will arrive

between 8:00 and 8:30 in the morning (k = 0, 1, 2,)?

7

HANKs HARDWARE

An illustration of the Poisson distribution.

Input to the Poisson

distribution

l = 6 customers per hour.

t = 0.5 hour.

lt = (6)(0.5) = 3.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

10k23

= 0.224042

0.149361

0.049787

0.224042

k2!

3!!

0!

1! 8

HANKs HARDWARE

Using Excel for the Poisson probabilities

Solution

We can use the POISSON function in Excel to

determine Poisson probabilities.

Point probability: P(X = k) = ?

Use Poisson(k, lt, FALSE)

Example: P(X = 0; lt = 3) = POISSON(0, 1.5, FALSE)

Cumulative probability: P(Xk) = ?

Example: P(X3; lt = 3) = Poisson(3, 1.5, TRUE)

9

HANKs HARDWARE

Excel Poisson

10

The Waiting Line Characteristics

Jockeying Tandem Queues

Balking Homogeneity

11

Line Configuration

Multiple service queue with single waiting line.

Multiple service queue with multiple waiting

lines.

Tandem queue (multistage service system).

12

Jockeying and Balking

once they perceived that another line is moving

faster.

Balking occurs if customers avoid joining the line

when they perceive the line to be too long.

13

Priority Rules

There are several commonly used rules:

First come first served (FCFS).

Last come first served (LCFS).

Estimated service time.

Random selection of customers for service.

14

Tandem Queues

A customer needs to visit several service

stations (usually in a distinct order) to complete

the service process.

Examples

Patients in an emergency room.

Passengers prepare for the next flight.

15

Homogeneity

which customers require essentially the same

type of service.

A non-homogeneous customer population is one

in which customers can be categorized according

to:

Different arrival patterns

Different service treatments.

16

The Service Process

widely among customers.

When service time varies, it is treated as a

random variable.

The exponential probability distribution is used

sometimes to model customer service time.

17

The Exponential Service Time Distribution

f(t) = me-mt

who can be served per time period.

Therefore, 1/m = the mean service time.

P(X t) = 1 - e-mt

18

Schematic illustration of the exponential

distribution

within t time units

P(X t) = 1 - e-mt

19

X=t

HANKs HARDWARE Service time

1/m = 4 minutes per customer.

Service time follows an exponential distribution.

What is the probability that it will take less than 3

minutes to serve the next customer?

20

Using Excel for the Exponential Probabilities

determine exponential probabilities.

Probability density: f(t) = ?

Use EXPONDIST(t, m, FALSE)

Cumulative probability: P(Xk) = ?

Use EXPONDIST(t, m, TRUE)

21

HANKs HARDWARE

Using Excel for the Exponential Probabilities

The mean number of customers served per

minute is = (60) = 15 customers per hour.

P(X < .05 hours) = 1 e-(15)(.05) = ?

From Excel we have: 3 minutes = .05 hours

EXPONDIST(.05,15,TRUE) = .5276

22

HANKs HARDWARE

Using Excel for the Exponential Probabilities

=EXPONDIST(B4,B3,TRUE)

16.000

14.000

12.000

10.000

f(t)

8.000

6.000

4.000

2.000

0.000

0.000 0.075 0.150 0.225 0.300 0.375

t

=EXPONDIST(A10,$B$3,FALSE)

Drag to B11:B26

23

The Exponential Distribution -

Characteristics

The memoryless property.

No additional information about the time left for the completion of a

service, is gained by recording the time elapsed since the service

started.

For Hanks, the probability of completing a service within the next 3

minutes is (0.52763) independent of how long the customer has been

served already.

one another.

If customer arrivals follow a Poisson distribution with mean rate l,

their interarrival times are exponentially distributed with mean time

1/l. 24

9.3 Performance Measures of

Queuing System

Performance can be measured by focusing on:

Customers in queue.

Customers in the system.

state.

25

9.3 Performance Measures of

Queuing System

The transient period

n

occurs at the initial Roughly, this

time of operation. is a transient

period

Initial transient

behavior is not

indicative of long run

performance.

Time

26

9.3 Performance Measures of

Queuing System

The steady state

n

period follows the This is a

Roughly, this

transient period. is a transient steady state

period..

Meaningful long run period

performance

measures can be

calculated for the

system when in

Time

steady state.

27

9.3 Performance Measures of

Queuing System

effective arrival rate must be less than

the sum of the effective service rates .

k servers

l< m

For k servers Each with

For one server

with service rates mi service rate of m

28

Steady State Performance Measures

P0 = Probability that there are no customers in the system.

Pn = Probability that there are n customers in the system.

W = Average time a customer spends in the system.

for service.

(the percentage of time that each server is busy).

29

Littles Formulas

Littles Formulas represent important relationships

between L, Lq, W, and Wq.

These formulas apply to systems that meet the

following conditions:

Single queue systems,

Customers arrive at a finite arrival rate l, and

The system operates under a steady state condition.

L=lW Lq = l Wq L = Lq + l/m

Classification of Queues

Queuing system can be classified by:

Arrival process.

Service process. Example:

Number of servers.

System size (infinite/finite waiting line). M / M / 6 / 10 / 20

Population size.

Notation

M (Markovian) = Poisson arrivals or exponential service time.

D (Deterministic) = Constant arrival rate or service time.

G (General) = General probability for arrivals or service time.

31

M/M/1 Queuing System - Assumptions

Exponential service time distribution.

A single server.

Potentially infinite queue.

An infinite population.

32

M / M /1 Queue - Performance Measures

P0 = 1 (l/m)

Pn = [1 (l/m)](l/m)n

L = l /(m l)

The probability that

Lq = l2 /[m(m l)] a customer waits in

W = 1 /(m l) the system more than

t is P(X>t) = e-(m - l)t

Wq = l /[m(m l)]

Pw = l / m

r =l/m

33

MARYs SHOES

Customers arrive at Marys Shoes every 12

minutes on the average, according to a Poisson

process.

average of 8 minutes per customer.

performance measures for this service system.

34

MARYs SHOES - Solution

Input

l = 1/12 customers per minute = 60/12 = 5 per hour.

m = 1/ 8 customers per minute = 60/ 8 = 7.5 per hour.

Performance Calculations m l = 7.5 5 = 2.5 per hr.

P(X<10min) = 1 e-2.5(10/60)

Pn = [1 - (l/m)](l/m) = (0.3333)(0.6667)

n n

= .565

L = l/(m - l) = 2

Pw = l/m = 0.6667

Lq = l /[m(m - l)] = 1.3333

2

r = l/m = 0.6667

W = 1/(m - l) = 0.4 hours = 24 minutes

Wq = l/[m(m - l)] = 0.26667 hours = 16 minutes

35

MARYs SHOES -

Spreadsheet solution

=B4/B5 =1-

=A11-B4/B5 B4/B5

=1-

=B4/(B5-B4) =C11-1/B5 E11 =H11*($B$4/$B$5

=A11/B

4 )

Drag to Cell AL11

36

Economic Analysis of Queuing

Systems

The performance measures previously developed

are used next to determine a minimal cost queuing

system.

The procedure requires estimated costs such as:

Hourly cost per server .

Customer goodwill cost while waiting in line.

Customer goodwill cost while being served.

37

Tandem Queuing Systems

In a Tandem Queuing System a customer must visit

several different servers before service is completed.

Meats Beverage

Examples

All-You-Can-Eat restaurant

38

Tandem Queuing Systems

In a Tandem Queuing System a customer must visit

several different servers before service is completed.

Meats Beverage

Examples

All-You-Can-Eat restaurant

39

Tandem Queuing Systems

In a Tandem Queuing System a customer must visit

several different servers before service is completed.

Meats Beverage

Examples

All-You-Can-Eat restaurant

A drive-in restaurant, where first you place your order, then

pay and receive it in the next window.

A multiple stage assembly line.

40

Tandem Queuing Systems

For cases in which customers arrive according to

a Poisson process and service time in each

station is exponential, .

Sum of all average times at the individual stations

41

BIG BOYS SOUND, INC.

The sale process is as follows:

A customer places an order with a sales person.

The customer goes to the cashier station to pay for

the order.

After paying, the customer is sent to the pickup desk

to obtain the good.

42

BIG BOYS SOUND, INC.

Data for a regular Saturday

Personnel.

8 sales persons are on the job.

3 cashiers.

2 workers in the merchandise pickup area.

Average service times.

Average time a sales person waits on a customer is 10 minutes.

Average time required for the payment process is 3 minutes.

Average time in the pickup area is 2 minutes.

Distributions.

Exponential service time at all the service stations.

Poisson arrival with a rate of 40 customers an hour.

43

BIG BOYS SOUND, INC.

customer who makes a purchase spends

in the store?

44

BIG BOYS SOUND, INC. Solution

(.75)(40)=30

Pickup desk

M/M/2

Cashiers

Sales Clerks M/M/3

M/M/8

W3 = 2.67 minutes

W2 = 3.47 minutes

W1 = 14 minutes Total = 20.14 minutes.

45

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