Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Chapter 11 Project Risk Analysis
Chapter 11 Project Risk Analysis
Break-even Hillier
Analysis Model
Project-specific risk
Competitive risk
Industry-specific risk
Market risk
International risk
Perspectives on Risk
Standalone risk
Firm risk
Market risk
Measures of Risk
Range
Standard deviation
Coefficient of variation
Semi - variance
Sensitivity Analysis
(000)
YEAR 0 YEARS 1 - 10
1. INVESTMENT (20,000)
2. SALES 18,000
3. VARIABLE COSTS (66 2/3 % OF SALES) 12,000
4. FIXED COSTS 1,000
5. DEPRECIATION 2,000
6. PRE-TAX PROFIT 3,000
7. TAXES 1,000
8. PROFIT AFTER TAXES 2,000
9. CASH FLOW FROM OPERATION 4,000
10. NET CASH FLOW (20,000) 4,000
Procedure
Portrait approach
Building block approach
Portrait Approach
This process often leads to a step rectangular distribution and has the
following advantages (i) the expert has complete freedom in expressing
his judgment; and (ii) it squares well with the principle of using all
available information, no more no less.
Some Probability Distributions
Problem of Correlation and the Level of
Disaggregation
Its principal strength lies in its versatility. It can handle problems characterised by (a) numerous
exogenous variables following any kind of distribution, and (b) complex interrelationships
among parameters, exogenous variables, and endogenous variables. Such problems often defy
the capabilities of analytical methods.
It compels the decision maker to explicitly consider the interdependencies and uncertainties
characterising the project.
Simulation , however, is a controversial tool which suffers from several shortcomings.
It is difficult to model the project and specify the probability distributions of exogenous
variables.
Simulation is inherently imprecise. It provides a rough approximation of the probability
distribution of net present value ( or any other criterion of merit). Due to its imprecision, the
simulated probability distribution may be misleading when a tail of the distribution is critical.
A realistic simulation model, likely to be complex, would most probably be constructed by a
management scientist, not the decision maker. The decision maker, lacking understanding of the
model, may not use it.
To determine the net present value in a simulation run the risk- free discount rate is used. This
is done to avoid prejudging risk which is supposed to be reflected in the dispersion of the
distribution of net present value. Thus the measure of net present value takes a meaning, very
different from its usual one, that is difficult to interpret.
Decision Tree Analysis
The decision tree, exhibiting the anatomy of the decision situation, shows :
The decision points (also called decision forks) and the alternative options
available for experimentation and action at these decision points.
The chance points (also called chance forks) where outcomes are dependent
on a chance process and the likely outcomes at these points.
The decision tree reflects in a diagrammatic form the nature of the decision
situation in terms of alternative courses of action and chance outcomes which have
been identified in the first step of the analysis.
A decision tree can easily become very complex and cumbersome if an attempt is
made to consider the myriad possible future events and decisions. Such a decision
tree, however, is not likely to be a very useful tool of analysis. Over-elaborate, it
may obfuscate the critical issues. Hence an effort should be made to keep the
decision tree somewhat simple so that the decision makers can focus their attention
on major future alternatives without being drowned in a mass of trivia.
Specification of Probabilities and Monetary Value
of Outcomes
Once the decision tree is delineated, the following data have to be gathered :
Once the decision tree is delineated and data about probabilities and monetary values
gathered, decision alternatives may be evaluated as follows :
1. Start at the right-hand end of the tree and calculate the expected monetary value at
various chance points that come first as we proceed leftward.
2. Given the expected monetary values of chance points in step 1, evaluate the
alternatives at the final stage decision points in terms of their expected monetary
values.
3. At each of the final stage decision points, select the alternative which has the highest
expected monetary value and truncate the other alternatives. Each decision point is
assigned a value equal to the expected monetary value of the alternative selected at
that decision point.
4. Proceed backward (leftward) in the same manner, calculating the expected monetary
value at chance points, selecting the decision alternative which has the highest
expected monetary value at various decision points, truncating inferior decision
alternatives, and assigning values to decision points, till the first decision point is
reached.
Vigyanik case
C21 : High
demand Annual
cash flow
Probability 30 million
: 0.6
D21:Invest
c2
-Rs 150
million C22 : Moderate Annual
C11 : Success demand cash flow
D2 Probability
Probability 20 million
D11: Carry out pilot : 0.4
production and : 0.7 D22: Stop
market test
c1
-Rs 20
million
C12 : Failure D31: Stop
D1 D3
Probability : 0.3
D12:Do nothing
Vigyanik Case
The alternatives in the decision tree shown are evaluated as follows:
1. Start at the right-hand end of the tree and calculate the EMV at chance point C2 that comes
first as we proceed leftward.
EMV(C2) = 0.6 [30xPVIFA (20, 12%)] + 0.4 [20 x PVIFA (20, 12%)]
= Rs.194.2 million
2. Evaluate the EMV of the decision alternatives at D2 the last stage decision point.
Alternative EMV
D21 (Invest Rs.150 million) Rs.44.2 million
D22 (Stop) 0
3. Select D21 and truncate D22 as EMV(D21) > EMV(D22).
4. Calculate the EMV at chance point C1 that comes next as we roll backwards.
EMV (C1) = 0.7 [44.2] + 0.3 [0] = Rs.30.9 million
5. Evaluate the EMV of the decision alternatives at D1 the first stage decision point :
Alternative EMV
D11 (Carry out pilot production and
market test at a cost of Rs.20 million) Rs.10.9 million
D12 (Do nothing) 0
Based on the above evaluation, we find that the optimal decision strategy is as follows : Choose
D11 (carry out pilot production and market test) at the decision point D1 and wait for the outcome at
the chance point C1. If the outcome at C1 is C11 (success), invest Rs.150 million; if the outcome at
C1 is C12 (failure) stop.
Airways Limited Case
Airways Limited has been set up to run an air taxi service in western India. The company is
debating whether it should buy a turboprop aircraft or a piston engine aircraft. The turboprop
aircraft costs 3500 and has a larger capacity. It will serve if the demand turns out to be high.
The piston engine aircraft costs 1800 and has a smaller capacity. It will serve if the demand
is low, but it will not suffice if the demand is high.
The company believes that the chances of demand being high and low in year 1 are 0.6
and 0.4. If the demand is high in year 1, there is an 80 percent chance that it will be high in
subsequent years (year 2 onward) and a 20 percent chance that it will be low in subsequent
years.
The technical director of Airways Limited thinks that if the company buys a piston
engine aircraft now and the demand turns out to be high the company can buy a second-hand
piston engine aircraft for 1400 at the end of year 1. This would double its capacity and
enable it to cope reasonably well with high demand from year 2 onwards.
The payoffs associated with high and low demand for various decision alternatives are
shown in Exhibit 1.1.The payoffs shown for year 1 are the payoffs occurring at the end of
year 1 and the payoffs shown for year 2 are the payoffs for year 2 and the subsequent years,
evaluated as of year 2, using a discount rate of 12 percent which is the weighted average cost
of capital for Airways Limited.
Exhibit 1.1 Decision Tree Year 1
Year 2
High demand
(0.8) 7000
High demand (0.6)
C Low demand
(0.2)
1000 2
1000
C
High demand
Turboprop 1
(0.4)
- 4000
7000
Low demand (0.4)
C Low demand
(0.6)
200 3
600
High demand
(0.8)
6000
Low demand
D1 C
(0.2)
High demand Expand 5
- 1400 600
(0.6)
D2 High demand
500 (0.8)
Do not
expand 2500
Piston engine
C Low demand
- 1800 (0.2)
6
800
C High demand
4 (0.2)
2500
Low demand (0.4)
C Low demand
300 (0.8)
7 800
Airways Limited Solution
If Airways Limited buys the turboprop aircraft, there are no further decisions to be made. So, the NPV of the
turboprop aircraft can be calculated by simply discounting the expected cash flows:
0.6 (1000) + 0.4 (200)
NPV = - 4000 +
(1.12)
0.6 [ 0.8 (7000) + 0.2 (1000) ] + 0.4 [ 0.4 (7000) + 0.6 (600) ]
+ = 389
(1.12) 2
If Airways Limited buys the piston engine aircraft and the demand in year 1 turns out to be high, a further
decision has to be made with respect to capacity expansion. To evaluate the piston engine aircraft, proceed as
follows:
First, calculate the NPV of the two options viz., expand and do no expand at decision point D2:
0.8(6000) + 0.2 (600)
Expand: NPV = - 1400 = 2993
1.12
0.8 (2500) + 0.2 (800)
Do not expand: NPV = = 1929
1.12
Second, truncate the do not expand option as it is inferior to the expand option. This means that the NPV at
decision point D2 will be 2923.
Third, calculate the NPV of the piston engine aircraft option.
0.6 (500 + 2923) + 0.4 (300) 0.4 [0.2 (2500) + 0.8 (800)]
NPV = - 1800 + + = 505
(1.12) (1.12)2
Since the NPV of the piston engine aircraft (505) is greater than the NPV of the turboprop aircraft (389), the
former is a better bet. So the recommended strategy for Airways Limited is to invest in the piston engine
aircraft at decision point D1 and, if the demand in year 1 turns out to be high, expand capacity by buying another
piston engine aircraft:
Value of the Option Note that if Airways Limited does not have the option of expanding capacity at
the end of year 1, the NPV of the piston engine aircraft option would be:
0.6 (500) + 0.4 (300)
NPV = - 1800 +
(1.12)
0.6 [0.8 (2500) + 0.2 (800)] + 0.4 [0.2 (2500) + 0.8 (800)]
+ = 28
(1.12)2
Thus, the option to expand has a value of: 505 39 = 466.
Option to Abandon So far we assumed that Airways Limited will continue operations irrespective
of the state of demand. Let us now introduce the possibility of abandoning the operation and
disposing off the aircraft at the end of year 1, should it be profitable to do so. Suppose after 1 year
of use the turboprop aircraft can be sold for 3600 and the piston-engine aircraft for 1400.
If the demand in year 1 turns out to be low, the payoffs for continuation and abandonment as
of year 1 are as follows.
Turboprop Aircraft Piston Engine Aircraft
Continuation : 0.4 (7000) + 0.6(600) Continuation : 0.2(2500) + 0.8 (800)
= 3160/(1.12) =2821 = 1140/(1.12) = 1018
Abandonment : 3600 Abandonment : 1400
Thus in both the cases it makes sense to sell off the aircraft after year 1, if the demand in year 1
turns out to be low.
The revised decision tree, taking into account the abandonment options, is shown in Exhibit 1.2.
Exhibit 1.2 Decision Tree Year 1 Year 2
High demand
(0.8)
7000
High demand (0.6)
Low demand
1000
(0.2)
1000
C
Turboprop 1
High demand
D1 (0.8)
6000
Piston engine
Low demand
- 1800 (0.2)
800
For the piston engine aircraft the possibility of abandonment increases the NPV from 505
to 678. Hence the value of the abandonment option is 173.
Corporate Risk Analysis
Judgmental Evaluation
Under certain circumstances, the expected NPV and the standard deviation of NPV may
be obtained through analytical derivation; as proposed by H.S. Hillier.
Sensitivity analysis indicates the sensitivity of the criterion of merit (NPV, IRR or any
other) to variations in basic factors. Though useful, such information may not be
adequate for decision making. The decision maker would also like to know the
likelihood of such occurrences. This information can be generated by simulation
analysis which may be used for developing the probability profile of a criterion of merit
by randomly combining values of variables that have a bearing on the chosen criterion.
Decision tree analysis is a useful tool for analysing sequential decisions in the face of
risk. The key steps in decision tree analysis are : (i) identification of the problem and
alternatives. (ii) delineation of the decision tree. (iii) specification of probabilities and
monetary outcomes. (iv) evaluation of various decision alternatives
A projects corporate risk is its contribution to the overall risk of the firm. Put
differently, it reflects the impact of the project on the risk profile of the firms total
cash flows. On a stand-alone basis a project may be very risky but if its returns are
not highly correlated or, even better, negatively correlated with the returns on
the other projects of the firm, its corporate risk tends to be low.
Aware of the benefits of portfolio diversification, many firms consciously pursue a
strategy of diversification. The logic of corporate diversification for reducing risk,
however, has been questioned. Why should a firm diversify when shareholders can
reduce risk through personal diversification? There does not seem to be an easy
answer.
Once information about expected return (measured as NPV or IRR or some other
criterion of merit) and variability of return (measured in terms of range or standard
deviation or some other risk index) has been gathered, the next question is, should
the project be accepted or rejected. There are several ways of incorporating risk in
the decision process : judgmental evaluation, payback period requirement, risk-
adjusted discount rate method, and the certainty equivalent method.
Often managers look at risk and return characteristics of a project and decide
judgmentally whether the project should be accepted or rejected. Although
judgmental decision making may appear highly subjective or haphazard, this is
how most of us make important decisions in our personal life.
In many situations companies use NPV or IRR as the principal selection criterion,
but apply a payback period requirement to control for risk. If an investment is
considered more risky, a shorter payback period is required.
Under the risk profile method, the probability distribution of NPV, an absolute
measure, is transformed into the probability distribution of profitability index, a
relative measure. Then, the dispersion of the profitability index is compared with
the maximum risk profile acceptable to management for the expected profitability
index of the project.
The risk-adjusted discount rate method calls for adjusting the discount rate to
reflect project risk. If the project risk is same as the risk of the existing investments
of the firm, the discount rate used is the WACC of the firm; if the project risk is
greater (lesser) than the existing investments of the firm, the discount rate used is
higher (lower) than the WACC of the firm.
Under the certainty equivalent method, the expected cash flows of the project are
converted into their certainty equivalents by applying suitable certainty equivalent
coefficients. Then, the risk-free rate is applied for discounting purposes.
The analysis of risk factor in practice can be improved if the probability
distributions of the key factors underlying an investment project are developed and
information is communicated in that form.