WAITING LINES AND
SIMULATION
• I. WAITING LINES (QUEUEING) :
• II. SIMULATION
WAITING LINES
• I. Length of line: number of people in queue
• II. Time waiting in line
• III. Efficiency: waiting vs idle server
• IV. Cost of waiting
I. WAITING LINES
• ASSUMTIONS
• 1) FIRST COME FIRST SERVE
• 2) ARRIVALS COME FROM VERY
LARGE POPULATION
• 3) NUMBER OF ARRIVALS IS POISSON
• 4) SERVICE TIME IS EXPONENTIAL
• 5) ARRIVALS INDEPENDENT
APPLICATIONS
• BANK TELLER LINE, CAR WASH
• INTERNET: CABLE VS PHONE LINE
• WAITING FOR CABLE GUY
• METERED FREEWAY ON RAMPS
• WAREHOUSE: ORDERS WAIT TO BE
SHIPPED
• AIRPLANES WAITING TO LAND
av# arrivals
av# served
EXAMPLE: AUTO REPAIR
• ONE MECHANIC
• MAY NOT BE POISSON IF CUSTOMERS
ARE CLUSTERED EARLY MORNING
OR AFTER WORK
• MAY NEED TO USE SIMULATION
LATER
2cars / hr
3cars / hr
L=Average Length
• ALL customers in system
• Waiting AND being served
L
2
2
3 2
Lq=Average Length of queue
• Customers waiting in line
• Number waiting to be served
2
Lq
( )
2
2
Lq 1.3
3(3 2)
W=Av Time customer in system
• From arrival time to departure time
• Time waiting and being served
1
W
1
W 1hr
3 2
Wq=Av time customer waits in
queue
• Waiting to be served
• Marketing, Service operations management
• Customers may go to competitor if Wq big
• Exception: lowest price(trade off)
• Car dealer: Wq=0
Wq
( )
2
Wq .67hr
3(3 2)
Interpret Wq
• Wq=40 minutes waiting in line
• W=60 minutes in system
• 20 minutes being served
U=Utilization
• U=efficiency
• Probability server is busy
• Probability customer has to wait
U
U=2/3
67% efficiency
Po=P(zero customers in system)
• Po=1-U
• P(server is idle)
• P(customer does not have to wait)
• Here: Po = .33
COST OF WAITING
SUPPOSE EACH HOUR A
CUSTOMER WAITS COSTS $10
INTANGIBLE COST
• NOT ACCOUNTING COST
• MARKETING ESTIMATE
• USED FOR DECISION MAKING
SUPPOSE MECHANIC
RESIGNS
• TWO ALTERNATIVE ACTIONS
• ACT 1: MECHANIC #1,
$17/HR LABOR COST, 3 CARS/HR
• ACT 2: MECHANIC #2,
$19/HR, 4 CARS/HR
• 8 HRS/DAY
MINIMIZE TOTAL COST
• TOTAL COST =
WAITING COST + LABOR COST
• LABOR COST = (8)(COST/HR)
• WAIT COST = (#HRS WAITING)($10)
• AVERAGE #CARS ARRIVE/HR= 2
• TOTAL #CARS/DAY = 8(2)=16
Wq
( )
MECHANIC #1
3 CARS/HOUR
2
Wq .67hr
3(3 2)
MECHANIC #2
• 4 CARS/HOUR
2
Wq .25
4( 4 2)
WAIT COST
MECHANIC#1 MECHANIC#2
#SERVED/HR 3 4
WAIT TIME .67 HR .25 HR
DAILY WAIT .67(16)= .25(16)= 4HR
TIME 10.67HR
WAIT COST 10.67(10)=$107 4(10)=$40
LABOR COST
MECHANIC#1 MECHANIC#2
HOURLY $17/HR $19/HR
WAGE
DAILY LABOR 8(17)=$136 8(19)=$152
COST
Total cost
MECHANIC#1 MECHANIC#2
WAIT COST $107 $40
LABOR COST $136 $152
TOTAL COST $243 $192=MIN
HIRE SECOND MECHANIC?
SIMILAR TABLE: 2
SERVERS VS 1 SERVER
II. SIMULATION
• DEFINE PROBLEM
• DEFINE VARIABLES
• BUILD MODEL: IMITATE BEHAVIOR
OF REAL WORLD
• LIST ALTERNATIVE ACTIONS
• RANDOM NUMBERS
• CHOOSE BEST ALTERNATIVE
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
• ADVANTAGES • DISADVANTAGES
• Flexibility • No mathematical
• Probabilities: optimization (LP
• Client understands guarantees optimum)
model • Trial and error
• Familiar simulations: • Might not try best
dice, board games,
video games, flight action
simulator
EXAMPLES
• APOLLO 13 EMERGENCY RETURN
• WEATHER FORECAST
• SUGAR PLANTATION DECISION
WHICH FIELD TO BURN
EXAMPLE: WAIT LINE
• PREVIOUS • SIMULATION
SECTION • NO RESTRICTIVE
• RESTRICTIVE ASSUMPTIONS
ASSUMPTIONS • ONLY
• EXACT FORMULAS APPROXIMATIONS
EXAMPLE: WAIT LINE
• REFERENCE: RENDER, BARRY
• QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS, P 708
• BARGES ARRIVE AT PORT
• BARGES UNLOADED IN PORT
• OBJECTIVE: MINIMIZE DELAY
• FCFS:FIRST COME FIRST SERVED
GIVEN: PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
• X1= NUMBER OF BARGES ARRIVING
AT PORT
• X2= MAXIMUM NUMBER OF BARGES
UNLOADED IN PORT
ARRIVALS
X1 P(X1)
O .13
1 .17
2 .15
3 .25
4 .20
5 .10
STEP1:CUMULATIVE PROB
X1 P(X1) P(X1<x)
O .13 .13 P(X1<0)
1 .17 .30 P(X1<1)
2 .15 .45 P(X1<2)
3 .25 .70
4 .20 .90
5 .10 1
STEP 2: RANDOM NUMBER
INTERVALS
X1 P(X1) P(X<x) X1 RN
O .13 .13 P(X1<0) 01 to 13
1 .17 .30 P(X1<1) 14 to 30
2 .15 .45 P(X2<2) 31 to 45
3 .25 .70 46 to 70
4 .20 .90 71 to 90
5 .10 1 91 to 00
STEP 3: SIMULATE
ARRIVALS
DAY X1 RN SIMULATED
(GIVEN) ARRIVALS
1 06 0
2 50 3
3 88 4
4 53 3
MAX UNLOADED
X2 P(X2);
GIVEN
1 .05
2 .15
3 .50
4 .20
5 .10
STEP 4: CUMULATIVE PROB
X2 P(X2) P(X2<x)
1 .05 .05
2 .15 .20
3 .50 .70
4 .20 .90
5 .10 1
STEP 5: RANDOM NUMBER
INTERVALS
X2 P(X2) P(X2<x) X2 RN
1 .05 .05 01 to 05
2 .15 .20 06 to 20
3 .50 .70 21 to 70
4 .20 .90 71 to 90
5 .10 1 91 to 00
STEP 6: SIMULATE
UNLOADING
DAY X2 RN SIMULATED
(GIVEN) MAXIMUM
UNLOADED
1 63 3
2 28 3
3 02 1
4 74 4
UNLOADED=MIN(3),(4)
(1)#DE- (2) (3) (4)MAX UNLOA
LAYED ARRIV TOTAL UNL DED
0 0 0 3 MIN(0,3
=0
0 3 3 3 MIN(3,3
=3
0 4 4 1 MIN(4,1
=1
4-1=3 3 3+3=6 4 MIN(6,4
=4
AVERAGE NUMBER
DELAYED
• AV = TOTAL DELAYED =
TOTAL NUMBER DAYS
= ¾ = 0.75
• REAL-WORLD: WOULD RE-DO
SIMULATION WITH MORE WORKERS
TO UNLOAD BARGES TO RE-
CALCULATE AV
