Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Foundations of IF Management :-
Globalization and the Multinational Firm
International Monetary System
Balance of Payments
The Market for Foreign Exchange
International Parity Relationships and
Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates
International Finance (IF) -Overview
World Financial Markets and
Institutions:-
International Banking and Money Market
International Bond market/Equity Market
Futures and Options of Foreign Exchange
Currency and Interest Rate Swaps
International Portfolio Investments
International Finance (IF) -Overview
Foreign Exchange Exposure and
Management:
Management of Credit Exposure
Management of Economic – Currency/Country
Exposure
Management Transaction/Product Exposure
Management of Translation & Settlement
Exposure
International Finance (IF) -Overview
Financial management of the Multinational Firm:
Foreign Direct/FII Investments and Cross-Border
Acquisitions
International Capital Structure and the Cost of Capital
International Capital Budgeting
Multinational cash Management
Export and Imports
International Tax Environment
Corporate Governance around the world.
International Finance
Globalization and the Multinational Firm,
Exchange Rate History
Currency Demand and Supply
Balance of Payments
Globalization and the Multinational Firm
Declining trade barriers, Collapse of Communist power
in Eastern Europe, move toward free market economies
by China and Latin America changes in communication,
information and transportation technologies have
globalized and integrated world economy
‘IF’ differs from domestic finance due to – Foreign
exchange & political risks, market imperfections and
expanded opportunity set (firms gaining from greater
economies of scale and deployment of assets on global
basis)by using proper tools and instruments.
Goals for IF - Maximization of Shareholders worth and
need for Corporate Governance.
Globalization and the Multinational Firm
MNC’s produces goods in one country, raise finance
from different countries and sell in other countries.
Globalization of the World Economy – Emergence of
Globalized Financial Markets, Advent of the Euro,
Trade Liberalization (WTO, NAFTA, EU) and
Economic Integration (MNC’s taking comparative
advantage over another country (Theory of
comparative advantage) due to their controlling
capital and know-how i.e. money & technical know-
how power).
Need & Importance of IF
International Trade & Trade Settlement in
Foreign Exchange
Globalization & Liberalization by countries
Integration of Financial Markets with the
development of new financial instruments,
liberalization of regulations governing the
financial markets and increased cross
penetration of foreign ownership
Cover Trade & Forex Risk with new
instruments & Products
Basic Ingredient of IF
Same that of WTO i.e. due to free flows
between countries on account of:
Trade –Trade Finance Products
Capital – Financial Markets and Instruments
Arbitrage – Interest Rate between different
markets and different countries
Movement of People - Need for Money
Transfer –Genuine/Non-Genuine
Trade Theories, Developments,
Barriers and Regulations
Theory of Absolute Advantage – One country
may be more efficient in producing a
particular good than another country and that
country may be capable of producing some
other good more efficiently than the first one
Theory of Comparative Advantage – Both
countries enjoy comparative advantage in at
least one of the products and to be seen from
the point of Perfect competition, Productivity,
Full employment, Mobility and Technology.
Developments, Barriers and
Regulations
Growth/Developments of International Trade
Risks involved in International Trade
Emergence of Trading Blocks – Free Trade Area,
Custom Union, Common Market, Economic Union,
NAFTA, ASEAN, SAARC, The European Union
Trade Barriers – Tariff –Custom/import duty,
taxes/vat –Non-Tariff Barriers – Quota, Embargo,
Subsidies to local goods. Then Technical Barriers,
procurement policies, international price fixing and
Exchange Control Regulations etc
Various Regulations to Trade – FEMA, Exim Policy etc
International Trade Finance in
India – Risk/Exposure
Risk in Export-Import Business
Exposure on:
Buyer/Seller – Credit, Capital, Capacity, Character and
Conditions of business
Country Risk – Political Risk, War or War like situation,
Internal Disturbance & Govt. Policy
Exchange Rate Risk –Price/Volatility Risk –Translation/-
Transaction Risk
Product Risk - Culture
Operation Risk, Settlement Risk
Interest Rate Risk –Inflation, Economic conditions/exposure
International Trade Finance in
India- ECONOMIC SCENARIO
Forex Reserves touches USD 229.00 Bio
Good Forex inflow by Exporters/ECB’s/FII’s/-
FDI’s leveraging on capital market and less
outflow by Importers
Rupee remained between 40.90-40.95
Inflation around 4.00%
Forward premium around 1.00% for 1 year
Libor at 5.50% p.a. for 3 to 6 months
International Trade Finance in India- FINANCING
MECHANISM & CORRESPONDENT BANKS
ACCOUNTS
Current Account
Capital Account
Official Reserve Transactions
Quick vocab review - BOP
Credit: any money flowing into the country is
listed on balance of payments as a credit
Exports
Foreigners investing in domestic real or financial
assets
Debit: any money flowing out of the country is
listed on balance of payments as a debit
Imports
Domestic citizens investing in foreign real or financial
assets
International Finance
Gold Standard
Bretton Woods
International Monetary Fund
Gold standard
Currency of each country could be
redeemed directly for a fixed amount of
gold
Problems with commodity money: subject
to forces of supply and demand
New gold discoveries caused inflation
Country’s money supply strongly affected
by its international balance of payments
Bretton Woods
Foreign currencies were linked to U.S.
dollar for exchange rates
U.S. dollar was fixed to gold
Foreign currencies could be exchanged
to dollars, which could then be
exchanged for gold
Creation of the International Monetary
Fund (IMF)
Currency appreciation
If U.S. $ appreciates relative to the
German mark, 1 $ will now buy more
marks, or it will take more marks to
exchange for 1 U.S. dollar
Originally: 1 $ = 2.2965 German marks
1 German mark = 0.4355 U.S. $
After $ appreciation: 1 $ = 2.50 German
marks
1 German mark = 0.40 U.S. $
Currency depreciation
If U.S. $ depreciates relative to the
German mark, 1 $ will now buy fewer
marks, or it will take less marks to
exchange for 1 U.S. dollar
Originally: 1 $ = 2.2965 German marks
1 German mark = 0.4355 U.S. $
After $ depreciation: 1 $ = 2.00 German
marks
1 German mark = 0.50 U.S. $
Other terminology
Currency devaluation: foreign exchange
becomes more expensive; domestic
currency becomes weaker (relative to
other currencies)
Currency revaluation: foreign exchange
becomes less expensive; domestic
currency becomes stronger (relative to
other currencies)
Relationship Between Trade
Balance and Currency Value
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
spot
33%
FX sw aps
50%
forw ard
gap 11%
6%
FX market in the U.S. is the most
active market in the U.S
600 billion turnover per day, in 2006
Comparisons with U.S. asset markets:
· 10 times the turnover of U.S. govt. bonds
· 50 times the turnover of NYSE stocks
Comparisons with real activity in U.S.:
· 10 times U.S. daily GDP
· 30 times U.S. daily exports + imports
Primary functions of FX Market
Currency conversions associated with
international payments process
Provision of credit to clients
(also part of international payments
process)
Managing exchange rate risk
Structure of FX Market (retail level)
Interbank mkt
firms ($/INR or FC) for. firms
Corp.
order dom. for. Corp.
bank bank order
(market makers)
· temporarily take positions intra-daily, but
Foreign exchange.
Nonbank dealers account for about 20% of the market.
There are FX brokers who match buy and sell orders but do
Financial Telecommunications.
CHIPS: Clearing House Interbank Payments System
MARKET MOVERS
TRADERS
HEDGERS
ARBITRAGERS
SPECULATORS
GLOBAL MARKET MOVERS
OIL PRICES
GROUP OF SEVEN G 7
BALANCE OF TRADE
VALUE OF DOLLAR
PEOPLE MARKET MOVERS
PRESIDENT OF U.S.
CHANCELLOR OF EXCHEQUER
ECB PRESIDENT
SUMMIT/TRADE TALKS
MONETARY AND FINANCIAL MARKET
MOVERS
INTEREST RATES
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM
YIELD CURVE
BASE RATE
LEADING INDICATORS
SPECIAL FEATURES OF FX MKT
MANAGED FLOAT
FLOW DRIVEN
TRADE FLOWS
CAPITAL FLOWS
OPTIONS HEDGING
FDI FLOWS
NRI REMITTANCE
FCNR(B) DEPOSITS
$.01/yen
Indirect Quotation
the price of a U.S. dollar in the foreign currency
= Y100/$
e.g. “you get 100 yen to the dollar”
Spot Rate Quotations
USD
equiv USD equiv Currency per Currency per
Country Friday Thursday USD Friday USD Thursday
Argentina
(Peso) 0.3309 0.3292 3.0221 3.0377
Australia
(Dollar) 0.5906 0.5934 1.6932 1.6852
Brazil (Real) 0.2939 0.2879 3.4025 3.4734
Britain (Pound) 1.5627 1.566 0.6399 0.6386
The direct
1 Month quote for
Forward 1.5596 1.5629 0.6412 0.6398
British pound
3 Months is:
Forward 1.5535 1.5568 0.6437 0.6423
6 Months £1 = $1.5627
Forward 1.5445 1.5477 0.6475 0.6461
Canada (Dollar) 0.6692 0.6751 1.4943 1.4813
1 Month
Forward 0.6681 0.6741 1.4968 1.4835
Spot Rate Quotations
Swap Transactions
Forward Premium
USD equiv USD equiv Currency per Currency per Clearly the
Country Friday Thursday USD Friday USD Thursday
market
Argentina (Peso) 0.3309 0.3292 3.0221 3.0377
Australia (Dollar) 0.5906 0.5934 1.6932 1.6852
participants
Brazil (Real) 0.2939 0.2879 3.4025 3.4734 expect that the
Britain (Pound) 1.5627 1.566 0.6399 0.6386 pound will be
1 Month Forward 1.5596 1.5629 0.6412 0.6398 worth less in
3 Months Forward 1.5535 1.5568 0.6437 0.6423 dollars in six
6 Months Forward 1.5445 1.5477 0.6475 0.6461 months.
Canada (Dollar) 0.6692 0.6751 1.4943 1.4813
1 Month Forward 0.6681 0.6741 1.4968 1.4835
3 Months Forward 0.6658 0.6717 1.502 1.4888
6 Months Forward 0.662 0.6678 1.5106 1.4975
Forward Rate Quotations
Participants
Organizations
Commercial banks
Brokers
Forex Dealing Room Operations
Indian Regulations
Brokers role is to bring market participants together
currencies
Brokers notes to be received promptly and acted upon on the
Spread of brokers
Dealing Process
Dealing
Customer Bank Branch Room
Front Office
Regulatory Requirements
Daily Fx turnover and Gaps position and Cash Balance
Monthly statement in USD denomination
Gap Limits, Aggregate gap limit (AGL) approved
Maximum AGL on any day
VaR approved
Maximum VaR on any day during the month
TRADING LIMITS
DAYLIGHT LIMITS
OVERNIGHT LIMITS
STOP LOSS LIMITS
CREATING AND MONITORING MISMATCHES
EXPORT AND IMPORT TRANSACTIONS
GENUINE MISMATCHES
DELIBERATE MISMATCHES
Forex Dealing Room Operations
Front Office: Confirmation, stamped agreement, P/L
evaluation monthly report, gold and record maintenance
Policy prescriptions
Strategy formulation
Concentration limits
Risk processes
Task delineation
Internal accounting/reporting
Secrecy issues
Forex Dealing Room Operations
Managing Risks
Open position Day light, overnight and cut loss
Maturity IGL, Monthly Limits, AGL, etc.
mismatch
Credit risk Country/group, currency limits
Operational Duty segregation, processes, etc
Risk
Legal Risk Responsibility fixation, supports,
Sovereign etc.
Risks External data, monitoring, etc.
Rate Mechanism
Transaction Buying Selling
Spot TT Base 48.5500 Base
Less Margin@.08% 0.0380 48.7000
Spot TT 48.5120 Add Margin@.15%
0.0731
Spot TT 48.7731
Forward TT Base 48.5500 Base 48.7000
Add Premium 0.1500 Add Premium 0.2000
Less Margin@0.08% 0.0389 Add Margin@.15% 0.0734
Forward 48.6611 Forward 48.9734
Bill Base 48.5500 Base 48.7000
Premium 0.4000 Add Margin@.15% 0.0731
Add Margin@0.2% 0.0975
Less Margin@.15% 0.0734 Bill 48.8706
Bill 48.8766
TC Base 48.7500 TT Selling 48.7641
Less Margin@1% 0.4875
MANAGING FOREX TRADING DESK
ANALYSING AND INTERPRETING THE DATA
DATA IN LINE WITH THE MARKET EXPECTATION
HOW MUCH IS ALREADY DISCOUNTED?
NO REACTION FROM THE MARKET – PRICED IN
DATA GOOD OR BAD
ARE THERE ANY SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS?
ECONOMIC DATA VIZ., INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION,
EXPORT AND IMPORT, MONEY SUPPLY, RETAIL SALES
MAY BE INFLUENCED BY SEASONALFACTORS
MANAGING FOREX TRADING DESK
RIFLE APPROACH
R - READ
I – INTERPRET
F – FORM THE VIEW
L – GO LONG OR SHORT
E – EXIT AT THE OPPORTUNE OR
APPROPRIATE TIME
INR – DISCOUNT & PREMIUM
IN THE INDIAN FOREX MARKET FORWARD DIFFFERENTIAL
NOT LINKED TO THE INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL
MULTIPLICITY OF INTEREST RATES
ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES
RESTRICTIVE MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS
DEMAND AND SUPPLY FACTORS DOMINATE
PERCEPTION OF THE CURRENCY – DEPRECIATION OR
APPRECIATION OF INR
CENTRAL BANK’S PARTICIPATION
MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS – ADVANCE TAX OUTLFOWS,
FCNR(B), EEFC AND ECB FUNDS
MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
INFLUENCE OF NDF MARKET
MANAGING FOREX TRADING DESK
SOME TRADING MAXIMS
WHEN YOU HAVE A POSITION FORGET YOUR EMOTIONS
TREND IS YOUR FRIEND – DONT FIGHT THE TREND
CONTRARIAN VIEW MAY WIN BUT NOT ALWAYS
THE FEAR OF LOSS IS MORE THAN THE LOSS
WHEN IN DOUBT GET OUT
WHEN THE ONLY THING LEFT IS HOPE YOU ARE SITTING
WITH THE WRONG POSITION
TRADING DISCPLINE IS NOT ONLY IN CUTTING LOSSES
BUT ALSO IN TAKING PROFITS
THERE IS MORE TO LIFE THAN TRADING
FEMA ACT 1999 Defines Foreign Exchange as “Foreign Exchange means &
includes:
a) All deposits, credits and balances
payable in foreign currency, and any
drafts, traveller’s cheques, letters of credit
and bills of exchange, expressed or
drawn in Indian currency and payable in
any foreign currency.
Method - I Method - II
DIRECT(FC fixed) INDIRECT( HC fixed)
USD 1 = Rs 45.18 Rs 100 = USD 2.2133
GBP 1 = Rs.85.99 Rs 100 = GBP 1.1629
EUR 1 = Rs 57.92 Rs 100 = EUR 1.7265
U S D 1 = C H F 1 .2 5 7 0 /7 3
C H F 1 .2 5 7 0 C H F 1 .2 5 7 3
B U Y IN G R A T E S E L L IN G R A T E
Understanding Exchange Rates
Dollar/Swiss Francs -- USD/CHF
Note the order of the currencies
While quoting, the dealers use only the third & fourth
decimals.
USD/CHF 1.2540 / 45
USD/INR 45.1675 / 00
GBP/USD 1.8000 / 10
BIG FIGURE
In a live dealing scenario dealers would quote only