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The Indian Automotive Industry

A Perspective

1
• TATA Motors – Organisation Structure

• Global Auto Industry – An Analysis

• Overview of Indian Economy


• Indian Auto Industry
Two Wheelers
Three Wheelers
Passenger Cars
Commercial Vehicles
• Indian Auto Component Industry

• Emerging Opportunities
2
Organization Structure – TATA Motors
Senior Management Team
R N Tata
(Chairman – Tata Motors)

Ravi Kant
(Managing Director)

P P Kadle
(ED – Finance &
A P Arya P M Telang Corporate Affairs)
(President – Heavy and (President – Light and
Medium Commercial Vehicles
Small Commercial
Vehicles) Rajiv Dube
(Sr Vice President – Passenger Engineering
Cars) Research Centre

3
• TATA Motors – Organisation Structure

• Global Auto Industry – An Analysis

• Overview of Indian Economy


• Indian Auto Industry
Two Wheelers
Three Wheelers
Passenger Cars
Commercial Vehicles
• Indian Auto Component Industry

• Emerging Opportunities
4
World Vehicle Production Trends (in '000s)

70000 Asia’s share of the


world vehicle
production is growing
60000
significantly..

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year

North America South America European Union Other Europe Japan Asia-other than Japan
Source : OICA.net

Data excludes 2-wheelers where Asia is not only the largest producer, but is also the largest market 5
State of the Global Automotive Industry

Stagnant Sales except in Asia

Over Capacity in most Regions

Intense Product & Price Competition

Industry Margins Under Pressure

Most of Industry EVA negative

Global Focus to Asia for growth

6
• TATA Motors – Organisation Structure

• Global Auto Industry – An Analysis

• Overview of Indian Economy


• Indian Auto Industry
Two Wheelers
Three Wheelers
Passenger Cars
Commercial Vehicles
• Indian Auto Component Industry

• Emerging Opportunities
7
INDIA : An Introduction

India USA

 Population : 1080 million 296 million

 States : 28 50
(+ 7 Union Territories) (+14 dependent areas)

 Geographical Area : 3.3 mn sq km 9.6 mn sq kms

 GDP - Nominal : US $ 0.67 trillion US $ 11.73 trillion

 Per Capita Income - Nominal: US $622 US $39,935


Per Capita Income : US $ 3080 US $ 39,496
(at Purchasing Power Parity)
Current Exchange Rate: 1 USD = INR 45
Estimates for 2004
Exchange Rate (PPP) : 1 USD = INR 10 (approximately)
Sources:– IMF Data, The World Factbook, CIA

8
Real GDP (USD Billion)

600
6.9% 586
5.4% 548
After decades of
500
indifferent growth,
India’s economy
is accelerating in
473
400 the new
5.8%
millenium..

300

3.0% 279
200
3.2%

4.2% 159
100 118
86
60
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 2004
Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 2004

9
Per capita GDP (USD)

600
6.9%
Rapid increase in 3.6%
546
500 population in the
last fifty years 511
have negated the 466
impact of
400 economic growth 3.6%
in the past

300 0.7% 328


0.8%
200 2.2% 231
216
199
164
100

0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 2004
Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 2004

10
Goldman Sachs
Indian Economy predicts India to
already ranks 4th in be the third
the world in terms largest economy
of GDP adjusted for in the world in
Purchasing Power absolute terms by
Parity 2025

GDP Growth Forecast


%

GDP 10
RANK COUNTRY
(Purchasing Power Parity)

1 United States 11,750,000,000,000 7.5


2 China 7,262,000,000,000
3 Japan 3,745,000,000,000
4 India 3,319,000,000,000 India
5 Germany 2,362,000,000,000 5
6 United Kingdom 1,782,000,000,000 Brazil
7 France 1,737,000,000,000
8 Italy 1,609,000,000,000 2.5 China
9 Brazil 1,492,000,000,000
10 Russia 1,408,000,000,000 Russia

(*) Estimates for 2004 0


2000-05

2005-10

2010-15

2015-20

2020-25

2025-30

2030-35

2035-40

2040-45

2045-50
Source : The World Factbook - CIA

11
India’s “Demographic Dividend”
Average Median Age (Years)

50.00
45.00 India has one of the
40.00 42.64 42.16 youngest population
38.99 38.85 amongst all nations
35.00 36.27
30.00 32.26
25.00 27.81 27.60
24.93 24.66 23.98
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Japan Germany UK France USA China Brazil World Mexico India South
Africa
Source: The World Factbook, CIA Year

Average Median Age (Years)

“Although it is the most populous country, because of Beijing’s long-standing one-child policy,
China’s working age population will begin to decline in the next 10 years. Meanwhile, India’s
youthfulness - 350 million citizens are under age 15 - ensures its workforce will expand for decades,
potentially enabling it to outstrip China’s economic pace through sheer weight of numbers.”
Time Magazine, Issue dated Dec 05, 2005
12
India has transitioned from a predominantly agrarian to a service-based economy in
line with the growth trajectory followed by major developed economies..
The Indian Economy is
Sectoral Share of GDP now more broad-based
and thus resilient..
100%

29.0% 32.9%
33.5% 36.0%
41.1%
48.5%
75% 51.4%

15.2%
20.7% 21.9%
25.9%
50%
%

24.9%
24.2%
24.5%

55.8%
25% 45.8% 45.2%
38.1% 34.0%
27.3% 24.0%

0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004
Sources:
Year
Statistical Outline of India 2004-05
Agriculture Industry Services

13
• TATA Motors – Organisation Structure

• Global Auto Industry – An Analysis

• Overview of Indian Economy


• Indian Auto Industry
Two Wheelers
Three Wheelers
Passenger Cars
Commercial Vehicles
• Indian Auto Component Industry

• Emerging Opportunities
14
Automobile production in India has doubled in 4 years, with growth seen across all
four major segments..
Automobile Production in India (Nos.)

By numbers, two wheelers


9,000,000 are the dominant segment 350,033
of the Indian Automotive
8,000,000 market
275,040 1,209,654

7,000,000 374,414
203,697 989,560

6,000,000 723,330 356,223


162,508
276,719
156,706 669,719
5,000,000
640,934 212,748
203,234
4,000,000
6,526,547
5,622,741
3,000,000 5,076,221
4,271,327
3,758,518
2,000,000

1,000,000

0
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Year

Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles

15
In many ways, the Indian Automotive Market is unique

 Harsher operating conditions pose unique challenges for product


conceptualization, design and development:
 Road inadequacy and quality
 High Traffic density
 Poor Fuel quality & variety (Gasoline, Diesel, CNG & LPG)

 Manufacturing complexity higher despite lower volumes compared to


global standards
 Large product portfolios

 Product obsolescence policies not articulated and enforced, entailing


longer product life.

 Firms able to maintain profitability even at low volumes.

16
Personal Mobility is positively correlated to per capita GDP

17
India is expected to achieve mass motorization status in 2014

Vehicle Density vs. GDP/capita

India in Developing Markets Mature Markets


2002
Inhabitants/Vehicle

Inhabitants/Vehicle
100 ‘02
China in 2002
India 100

50 India in 2014 China 82

China in 2014 Germany


10 Mexico Belgium
South Korea Canada
Brazil Austria
Poland UK Sweden
Argentina Australia
Czech Spain Japan
Republic USA
Italy France
0 2 15 20 25 30 35 40
$1,000
Per Capita Income (US$ 000)
Note: The above includes both Passenger Vehicles and Commercial Vehicles
Sources: Ward’s Auto Yearbook 2002, EIU, Goldman Sachs BRICs report, DRI 2002, A.T. Kearney analysis

18
Key Challenges facing the industry

 Increasingly Stringent Emission &


Safety Regulations
 Technological capability
 Cost

 Increase in input prices


Transition of Emission & Safety Regulations for Vehicles
 Ferrous & Non-Ferrous Metals India
 Crude oil & derivatives
 Natural rubber YEAR Emission Regulation Safety Regulation
Metro Cities Rest of Country

 Rising Customer Expectations 2000 BS 2 (Euro II) BS 1 (Euro I)


Underbody Protection Devices
Advance Warning Triangles
 Product features
 Quality & reliability 2005 BS 3 (Euro III) BS 2 (Euro II)
Spray Suppression, Noise
Norms, Headlamp levellers

ABS, Pedestrian Protection


2009 BS 4 (Euro IV) BS 3 (Euro III)
(Expected)
 Integration with Global Markets
 Lowering product life cycles
 Reducing time-to-market for new
products
 Threat of new competition

19
• TATA Motors – Organisation Structure

• Global Auto Industry – An Analysis

• Overview of Indian Economy


• Indian Auto Industry
Two Wheelers
Three Wheelers
Passenger Cars
Commercial Vehicles
• Indian Auto Component Industry

• Emerging Opportunities
20
2-Wheeler Production & Market Sub-Segments (Nos.)

CAGR – 15%

8,000,000 Within 2-Wheelers, Motorcycles


contribute 80% of the segment size
7,000,000 1,209,654

6,000,000 989,560 986,208

723,330
5,000,000 935,279

669,719 848,434

4,000,000
640,934 937,506

3,000,000
879,759 5,193,752
4,355,168
3,876,175
2,000,000
2,906,323
2,183,785
1,000,000

0
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Year

Motorcycles Scooters Moped

21
Indian 2-Wheeler Market
Competitive Scenario

Motorcycle 50% 30% 13% 4% 1% 2% <1% - <1%

- 15% 28% - 2% 46% 9% <1% -

- - 82% - - - 8% 10% -

Figures denote Mkt Share (Apr-Oct 05)


India is now the second
largest two-wheeler
market in the world

22
The Indian 2-Wheeler Industry

Indian 2-wheeler Industry Characteristics

Similarity with Global Industry • Large variety of products & choice for the customer
(9 manufacturers, 70+ Models)

• Basic transportation necessity as against fun & fashion


orientation of the Western Markets. (Primary transportation
vehicle for entire families)
Dis-similarity with Global
Industry • Product design & execution driven by economy rather
performance and power

• Presence of strong home-grown players competing against


Global majors.

23
Key Market Drivers Key Trends
 Increasing disposable incomes
 Eclipse of scooter segment

 Low operating cost


 Higher fuel efficiency of New-
generation motorcycles  Emergence of new motorcycle sub-
 Greater reliability resulting in low
maintenance cost segments

 Economy

 Low interest rates translating to low  Executive


financing and acquisition costs
hence greater affordability.  Performance

 Inadequate urban & rural public


transportation infrastructure
 Shrinking product life-cycles
 Ease of use in congested city
centres

24
• TATA Motors – Organisation Structure

• Global Auto Industry – An Analysis

• Overview of Indian Economy


• Indian Auto Industry
Two Wheelers
Three Wheelers
Passenger Cars
Commercial Vehicles
• Indian Auto Component Industry

• Emerging Opportunities
25
3-Wheeler Production (Nos.)
CAGR – 17%

400,000 Predominantly used for commercial


purposes, for both Goods Transport
(40%) and Passenger Transport (60%).
350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000 374,414
356,223

150,000 276,719

203,234 212,748
100,000

50,000

0
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Year

Three Wheeler

26
Indian 3-Wheeler Market
Sub-segments and Competitive Scenario

Sub
Scooters
Segments India

60% 68% 24% 2% 1% 3% 3%


Passenger

40% 23% 40% 12% 13% 7% 6%


Goods

Figures denote Mkt Share (Apr-Oct 05)


India is the largest three-
wheeler market in the world

27
The Indian 3-Wheeler Industry

Indian 3-wheeler Industry Characteristics

Similarity with Global Industry • None.

• Product unique to emerging markets in South / South-East


Asia & parts of Africa

Dis-similarity with Global • Product design & execution focus on technological simplicity
Industry and ease of use.

• Lesser competitive intensity as compared to other segments.

28
Key Market Drivers Key Trends
 “Last Mile” Transportation needs.
 Goods segment growing at faster
 High product maneuverability & clip.
driveability. Ideal for congested
Indian roads and tropical
conditions.  Ability of product to meet
increasingly stringent emission &
 Inadequate urban & rural public
transportation infrastructure safety regulations is doubtful.

 Low initial ownership cost


 Market push building up for product
 Self-employment opportunity for upgradation.
large segment of urban youth

29
• TATA Motors – Organisation Structure

• Global Auto Industry – An Analysis

• Overview of Indian Economy


• Indian Auto Industry
Two Wheelers
Three Wheelers
Passenger Cars
Commercial Vehicles
• Indian Auto Component Industry

• Emerging Opportunities
30
Passenger Vehicle Production & Market Sub-Segments (Nos.)

CAGR – 17%

1,400,000 Unlike the USA, the Indian Passenger


Vehicle market is dominated by Cars
(79%)
1,200,000 67,371

181,778
1,000,000 60,673

146,325

800,000
51,441
0 63,751
114,479
600,000 127,519
105,667
960,505
782,562
400,000

513,415 557,410
500,301
200,000 (*)

0
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
(*) MPVs were part of Passenger Car segment till 2000-01 Year

Passenger Cars Utility Vehicles Multi-Purpose Vehicles

31
Indian Passenger Vehicle Market – Competitive Scenario

Passenger
Cars 52% 17% 19% - 1% 5% 2% 2% 2% 1% - <1% <1%

Utility
Vehicles 2% 18% 1% 42% 21% 1% 10% 1% <1% - 4% - <1%
Multi
Purpose 100% - - - - - - - - - - - <1%
Vehicles

Figures denote Mkt Share (Apr-Oct 05)


4th largest Passenger Vehicle Market
in Asia

32
The Indian Passenger vehicle Industry
Indian Passenger Vehicle Characteristics
Industry

Similarity with Global Industry • Multiple segmentation across & within major segments
• Cars (A, B, C, D & E segments) (Hatchbacks, Sedans, Notchbacks, Station
Wagons & Saloons)
• Utility Vehicles (Multi- & Sports Utility)
• Large variety of products & choice for the customer
(13 manufacturers, 50+ Models)
• Market dominated by Mini Cars & Hatchbacks (>80%)
• High incidence of taxes in Car Prices.
(24% Excise Duty, 12.5% VAT, Local Taxes as applicable)
• Customer preference driven by value for money and cost of
ownership considerations rather than image, performance and
Dis-similarity with Global power.
Industry (80% of cars sold are priced below USD 12000)
• Large proportion of chauffer driven cars. Rear Passenger comfort
is a critical influence in purchasing decisions.
• Emergence of strong domestic players (TATA, Mahindra).
• Strong demand pull for Utility vehicles from Private Taxi segment.

33
Passenger Car Penetration is low in India
Cars per thousand population

The low penetration


presents an opportunity
for industry players to
offer an affordable four-
wheeled alternative to
the mass of 2-wheeler
customers

34
Key Market Drivers Key Trends
 Increasing disposable incomes
 Market evolution from Mini

 Rising aspirational levels cars to Hatchbacks to


Compact Sedans now evident
 Low interest rates.
Wide variety and easy
availability of Financing options.
 Increasing customer emphasis
 High sensitivity to Fuel prices on aesthetics and comfort.

 Lack of urban & rural public


transportation infrastructure
 Shrinking product life-cycles
 Flourishing Service Sector

35
• TATA Motors – Organisation Structure

• Global Auto Industry – An Analysis

• Overview of Indian Economy


• Indian Auto Industry
Two Wheelers
Three Wheelers
Passenger Cars
Commercial Vehicles
• Indian Auto Component Industry

• Emerging Opportunities
36
Commercial Vehicle Production & Market Sub-Segments (Nos.)

CAGR – 22%

400,000 Unlike most developed markets,


Indian Market has seen dominance
by Medium Commercial vehicles
350,000

300,000
138,890

250,000
108,917

200,000

83,195
150,000
65,756
68,922
211,143
100,000 166,123
120,502
87,784 96,752
50,000

0
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Year

Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Light Commercial Vehicles

37
Indian Commercial Vehicle Market – Competitive Scenario

Medium &
Heavy CV - 64% 24% - 8% - 3% - <1% <1%
Trucks

Buses – L, M
& HCV 40% 30% 7% 5% 10% 6% 1% 1% -
Light & Small
Comm Veh – 59% <1% 32% 4% 3% 3% <1% - -
Trucks

Figures denote Mkt Share (Apr-Oct 05)

TATA Motors dominates over 60% of the Indian Commercial Vehicle


Market. It is also the World’s fifth largest Medium & Heavy commercial
vehicle manufacturer.

38
The Indian CV Industry

Indian CV Characteristics
Industry
Indian CV Industry
Similar with Global • Cyclical
250
CV Industry
200

Nos in '000
150
CAGR: 5%
100
Dis-similar to • Secular long term growth trend
Global CV Industry • Lower Power to Weight Ratios 50

• Early stage of road development 0


• Less degree of product

72 1
74 3
76 5
78 7
80 9
82 1
84 3
86 5
88 7
90 9
92 1
94 3
96 5
19 -97

02 1
-03
00 9
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-9
-9
-9

-0
-9
70

98
sophistication.
• Strong price entry barriers created
by domestic players

39
Key Market Drivers
 Growth in Economic Activity

 Road Network Development

 Low interest rates.

Wide variety and easy availability of Financing options.

 High sensitivity to Fuel prices

40
Indian CV Industry: Trucks
The growth of the Commercial vehicle industry is critically dependent on Infrastructure
development & economic activity
Impact of Road development Impact of GDP Growth.

Dramatic impact in
1000 initial stage of road Stage 1000
Gradual impact Stage
development
900 900 Germany
Germany
800 800
France
700

MHCV / m population
UK 700 France

Truck penetration
MHCV / m population

UK
Truck penetration

600 600
Turkey
Spain
500 4 4
500 Portugal Spain
Portugal
400 Australia
Russia 400
Argentina Argentina
300 Brazil 3 Brazil
300 Hungary 3
200 China
India (AL)
South Africa 2 200 Mexico
Romania China
100 Indonesia 1 South Africa 2
India
100 Indonesia
0 India
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Road Density GDP per capita
Paved Highway (km) / Area (km2) 1000 US$ / head

Source: VDA (German Automotive Association), Worldbank, DRI Automotive report


41
Road network development in India
Between 2003-04 to 2007-08 each year ~2000 Kms of 4-laned highways will be added
Year-wise completion schedule of NHDP
Golden
Quadrilateral Planned length – 14,000 km

2004
2003 21%
NSEW 12%
Corridors

Completed
Feeder 15%
Roads 2005-07
52%
Source: CrisInfac, NHAI

Impact on Domestic CV Industry


 Faster turnaround
 Increased freight movement
 Lower operating cost of vehicles
 Replacement demand
Between 1997 - 2002, Highway length in China increased by around 15,000 km and CV
volumes nearly doubled from 1.2 mn to 2.1mn …
….. Indicative of future likely directions in Indian market
42
Key Trends
 Migration from erstwhile “Basic Average Power To Weight Ratios
MCV Workhorse” to “Hub & Of Selected Countries
Spoke” Model
18 Europe

Average Power to Weight ratio


 Increasing Power to weight 16
ratio 14
Japan

12 Brazil

 Increasing customer emphasis 10 China


on aesthetics and comfort. 8 India
6
 Arrival of Global Players 4
2
15 25 35 45
 Divergence in Truck and Bus GVW (Tonnes)
Technology

 Focus on Fully Built Transport


Solutions

43
• TATA Motors – Organisation Structure

• Global Auto Industry – An Analysis

• Overview of Indian Economy


• Indian Auto Industry
Two Wheelers
Three Wheelers
Passenger Cars
Commercial Vehicles
• Indian Auto Component Industry

• Emerging Opportunities
44
Automobile Component Business - India
(In USD Million)
CAGR – 22%

9,000
The growth rate in Auto Components
1,400
8,000 business has kept pace with OEM
growth
7,000
1,020
6,000

760
5,000
578
4,000 625 7,300

3,000 5,710
4,670
3,892
2,000 3,340

1,000

0
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Year

Domestic Export

45
Key Market Drivers Key Trends
 Linked to growth of OEM Industry  India’s emergence as low cost
global sourcing destination.
 Highly sensitive to input cost
escalation.  Indian ancillary manufacturers are
shifting focus from global after-
 Competitiveness driven by market to global OEM supplies.
 Manpower – Large pool of
qualified engineers & skilled  Firms focus on operational
technicians at lower cost
excellence to improve quality &
 Lower investment cost – Through
appropriate, low cost automation. reliability of products.
(8 Deming Award winners)

 Increasing relevance of Global Tier


1 suppliers (Bosch, Denso, Visteon,
Delphi)

46
The Indian Auto component industry is now transitioning from
being a supplier for the global aftermarket to becoming a full-
scale global Tier 1 supplier

Rotating Auto Heavy Forgings


Electricals Wheel Rims
Tyres & Tubes
High
Product Complexity

Small Castings & Plastic Components


Forgings
Medium

Hand Tools
Metal bonded &
Low

Moulded Rubber Parts

Aftermarket Tier 2-n supplier Tier 1 supplier


Customer complexity

47
Indian Component suppliers are adopting different approaches
for Global expansion & growth

Exports from India

Suppliers of:
• Castings
• Forgings
• Machined Items
Greenfield Overseas Locations
• Rubber Items
• Wheel Rims Sundaram Fasteners: China
Minda Group: Indonesia Overseas Acquisitions

Bharat Forge
(CDP-Germany; Federal Forge-
USA)

Sundaram Fasteners
(Cramlington Precision, UK;
Peiner-Germany)

48
• TATA Motors – Organisation Structure

• Global Auto Industry – An Analysis

• Overview of Indian Economy


• Indian Auto Industry
Two Wheelers
Three Wheelers
Passenger Cars
Commercial Vehicles
• Indian Auto Component Industry

• Emerging Opportunities
49
Automobile Exports from India (Nos.) CAGR
Overall – 22%
Passenger Veh – 57%
2-Wheelers – 35%
700,000
International Business
growth presents a huge 29,949

600,000 opportunity, as well as


a challenge for the
Indian Automotive 166,413
17,432
500,000 Industry

129,291 66,801
400,000

12,255
68,144
300,000
72,005

11,870 43,366
200,000 13,770 366,724
27,112 53,165
265,052
16,263 15,462
100,000 179,682
111,138 104,183

0
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Year

Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles

50
Opportunities for the industry are emerging both in the areas of Automotive
Manufacturing and Engineering Services
Manufacturing: Engineering Services:

 Emerging World hub:  Indian IT Majors offering on-shore and


 Small Cars (Suzuki, Hyundai) off-shore engineering services to Global
 Castings & Forgings IT players.
(e.g. TCS, TATA Technologies, Infosys,
Satyam)
 Regional Sourcing base
 Aggregates for Entire Vehicle Programs
(e.g. Transmissions for Toyota IMV)
 Global Auto & Auto component majors
putting up Development Centres in
 Globalisation opportunities for Indian India, either on their own or in
Manufacturers partnership with local players
 Increasing exports of “Made In India” (e.g. General Motors, Daimler Chyrsler,
vehicles Johnson Controls, Delphi, Bosch)
 Establishing manufacturing facilities at
foreign locations (e.g. TVS Indonesia)
 Independent Indian OEMs focusing on
 Contract Manufacturing (e.g. Sub-150cc
Bajaj motor cycles for Kawasaki)
upgrading their design & engineering
capabilities.
 Growth through Mergers & Acquisitions
(TATA Motors acquisition of Daewoo (e.g. TATA Motors European Development
Commercial Veh, Korea & Hispano, Centre & Acquisition of INCAT plc, UK)
Spain

51
Thank You

52

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