SUSTENTO DE TASA DE CRECIMIENTO

OPCION 1: INTERCENSAL OPCION 2: TASA DECRECIENTE

TASA DE CRECIMIENTO SANTA ANITA ATE LIMA
1993 2007
VARIABLES DIST. SANTA DIST. SANTA AÑO
DIST. ATE DIST. ATE POB. TASA POB. TASA POB. TASA
ANITA ANITA
Población
2000 157,523 379,443 6,968,339
total (N° de 118,659 266,398 184,614 478,278
habitantes) 2001 162,300 3.03% 394,831 4.06% 7,103,087 1.93%
TASA DE CRECIMIENTO 2002 167,072 2.94% 410,413 3.95% 7,236,194 1.87%
1993/2007
SANTA 2003 171,827 2.85% 426,162 3.84% 7,367,376 1.81%
ATE
ANITA 2004 176,554 2.75% 442,048 3.73% 7,496,342 1.75%
3.21% 4.27%
FUENTE: INEI - CENSO DE POBLACION Y DE VIVIENDA 1993 Y 2007 2005 181,240 2.65% 458,034 3.62% 7,622,792 1.69%
2006 185,828 2.53% 473,918 3.47% 7,744,537 1.60%
2007 190,314 2.41% 489,669 3.32% 7,861,745 1.51%
2008 194,774 2.34% 505,506 3.23% 7,977,709 1.48%
2009 199,282 2.31% 521,692 3.20% 8,095,747 1.48%
2010 203,919 2.33% 538,495 3.22% 8,219,116 1.52%
2011 208,697 2.34% 555,974 3.25% 8,348,403 1.57%
2012 213,561 2.33% 573,948 3.23% 8,481,415 1.59%
2013 218,486 2.31% 592,344 3.21% 8,617,314 1.60%
2014 223,447 2.27% 611,082 3.16% 8,755,262 1.60%
2015 228,422 2.23% 630,085 3.11% 8,894,412 1.59%

FUENTE: PERÚ, Estimaciones y Proyecciones de Población por Sexo, según Departamento,

Provincia y Distrito, 2000-2015

OPCION ELEGIDA
 SUSTENTO DE TASA DE CRECIMIENTO

REGRESION LINEAL

TASA TASA TASA

Año xy x2 y2 Año xy x2 y2 Año xy x2 y2
(%) (%) (%)
2001 3.03 6068.178615 4004001 9.2 2001 4.06 8114.759676 4004001 16.4 2001 1.93 3869.368984 4004001 3.7
2002 2.94 5886.348737 4008004 8.6 2002 3.95 7901.1167 4008004 15.6 2002 1.87 3751.611292 4008004 3.5
2003 2.85 5700.69491 4012009 8.1 2003 3.84 7686.30174 4012009 14.7 2003 1.81 3631.156738 4012009 3.3
2004 2.75 5513.049754 4016016 7.6 2004 3.73 7470.37655 4016016 13.9 2004 1.75 3508.004261 4016016 3.1
2005 2.65 5321.561675 4020025 7.0 2005 3.62 7250.577741 4020025 13.1 2005 1.69 3382.079553 4020025 2.8
2006 2.53 5078.088722 4024036 6.4 2006 3.47 6956.481592 4024036 12.0 2006 1.60 3203.819152 4024036 2.6
2007 2.41 4845.01905 4028049 5.8 2007 3.32 6670.575712 4028049 11.0 2007 1.51 3037.450218 4028049 2.3
2008 2.34 4705.738937 4032064 5.5 2008 3.23 6494.362086 4032064 10.5 2008 1.48 2961.883297 4032064 2.2
2009 2.31 4649.784879 4036081 5.4 2009 3.20 6432.603391 4036081 10.3 2009 1.48 2972.511808 4036081 2.2
2010 2.33 4676.975341 4040100 5.4 2010 3.22 6473.723406 4040100 10.4 2010 1.52 3062.987146 4040100 2.3
2011 2.34 4711.948372 4044121 5.5 2011 3.25 6527.61807 4044121 10.5 2011 1.57 3163.31047 4044121 2.5
2012 2.33 4689.271048 4048144 5.4 2012 3.23 6504.623906 4048144 10.5 2012 1.59 3205.644768 4048144 2.5
2013 2.31 4642.245073 4052169 5.3 2013 3.21 6452.180887 4052169 10.3 2013 1.60 3225.460457 4052169 2.6
2014 2.27 4573.040836 4056196 5.2 2014 3.16 6370.758766 4056196 10.0 2014 1.60 3224.058819 4056196 2.6
2015 2.23 4486.354706 4060225 5.0 2015 3.11 6266.116177 4060225 9.7 2015 1.59 3202.499822 4060225 2.5
30120 37.6313666 75548.30065 60481240 95.4 30120 37.6313666 75548.30065 60481240 95.4 30120 24.60562729 49401.84679 60481240 40.6

SANTA ATE LIMA

ANITA

LINEA TENDENCIA

SANTA
ANITA ATE LIMA
SUSTENTO DE TASA DE CRECIMIENTO

TASAS A USAR EN EL ESTUDIO DE FACTIBILIDAD HASTA EL AÑO 2041

ATE SANTA ANITA LIMA

AÑO
1 2 3
2015 3.11% 2.23% 1.59%
2016 2.92% 2.07% 1.46%
2017 2.85% 2.01% 1.44%
2018 2.79% 1.96% 1.42%
2019 2.72% 1.90% 1.39%
2020 2.66% 1.85% 1.37%
2021 2.59% 1.79% 1.35%
2022 2.53% 1.73% 1.33%
2023 2.46% 1.68% 1.31%
2024 2.40% 1.62% 1.28%
2025 2.34% 1.57% 1.26%
2026 2.27% 1.51% 1.24%
2027 2.21% 1.46% 1.22%
2028 2.14% 1.40% 1.19%
2029 2.08% 1.35% 1.17%
2030 2.01% 1.29% 1.15%
2031 1.95% 1.24% 1.13%
2032 1.88% 1.18% 1.10%
2033 1.82% 1.13% 1.08%
2034 1.75% 1.07% 1.06%
2035 1.69% 1.02% 1.04%
2036 1.62% 0.96% 1.02%
2037 1.56% 0.91% 0.99%
2038 1.49% 0.85% 0.97%
2039 1.43% 0.79% 0.95%
2040 1.36% 0.74% 0.93%
2041 1.30% 0.68% 0.90%