Climate Change and Agriculture

N.H.Rao
National Academy of Agricultural Research Management
Hyderabad
National Academy of Agricultural Research Management
Rajendranagar, Hyderabad - 500 030
Learning Objectives
Climate context: anthropogenic forcing, models, impacts,
scenarios, projections

Agricultural context: crop yield changes, economic impacts,

resource and environment effects, climate variability, food
security

Sustainable development: mitigation, vulnerability, adaptation

…… With reference to India

Background: Green house effect and Climate change
• climate is driven by solar energy – 30 % scatters back to space, 70% warms the
earth’s surface; earth emits the energy back as infrared/thermal radiation
• greenhouse gases: green house gases in the atmosphere ( water vapour, CO2,
ozone, methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons and other industrial gases together <
1%) block infrared radiation (cannot pass through like light energy) which needs to
be carried away by air currents into space above the greenhouse blanket
• greenhouse effect: greenhouse gases cause a natural greenhouse effect – keep the
planet about 300 C warmer than it would otherwise be (essential for life)
• anthropogenic forcing: levels of green house gases (except water vapour) are
rising as result of human activity – industry, agriculture, land use change etc. –
leading to an enhanced greenhouse effect
• global warming: climate system adjusts to rising greenhouse gases to keep the
global energy budget in balance through rise in average temperature
• uncertainties: global warming even by a small rise in temperature will be
accompanied by many changes: in cloud cover, wind patterns, etc which may
produce positive or negative feedbacks
 Scientific Understanding of climate change – climate models
Climate and development policy

Stockholm
Summit, WCED
1972 1987 IPCC, FAR, 1990
IPCC
1988 Rio Summit 1992
UNFCCC, 1994 Kyoto
protocol

IPCC 1995, 2001, 2007

 Background: Climate, environment and
and development

• Stockholm summit, 1972 Environment Policy

• WCED, 1987 Sustainable Development
• IPCC 1988 Climate change (WMO/UNEP)
• Earth Summit, Rio,1992 UNFCCC supported by IPCC
• IPCC Assessments 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007

Intergovernmental
committee for Kyoto Standard reference Final
UNFCCC protocol for parties of draft
1997 UNFCCC
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) was adopted in May 1992 in New York and opened for
signature at the “Rio Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro a month later. It
entered into force in March 1994, and has achieved near universal
ratification with 189 countries out of the 194 UN member states,
having ratified (December 2006)
Article 2 of the convention: The ultimate objective of this Convention
is to achieve “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system. Such a level should be
achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt
naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not
threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a
sustainable manner”.
Main categories of GHG emission sources

•Energy: fuel combustion in energy industries, manufacturing

industries, transportation, other
•Industrial processes and product use: chemical industries,
mineral industry, metal industry, electronics industry, product
usage, other
• agriculture, forestry and other land use: livestock, manure
management, forest land, crop land, wet land, grassland, other
land
• waste disposal: solid waste disposal, biological treatment,
incineration and open burning, other
• Other
Atmospheric concentrations of
GHGs over last 10000 years
•Global atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide have increased markedly as a
result of human activities since 1750
and now far exceed pre-industrial
values
• The global increases in carbon
dioxide concentration are due
primarily to fossil fuel use and land
use change, while those of methane
and nitrous oxide are primarily due to
agriculture.
(IPCC, 2007)
Emissions from different sources (IPCC, 2007)
Summary of GHG increases (1970-2004) - global

• CO2 : 70% (largest sources power generation, transport)

• CH4 : 40% (largest source agriculture)
• N2O: 50% (largest source agriculture – fertilizer use)

Agricultural CH4 and N2O have increased 17% during

1990-2005 – most of it from developing countries
Regional share of GHG emissions

1990 2000

• India’s share:

Source : Sharma et al, 2006

Global
temperature and
precipitation
trends from
climate models
Observed and simulated temperature change (IPCC, 2007)
Climate model simulations for India – (Rupakumar et al,
2006)
IPCC Fourth Assessment (2007) – attributing climate
change

• Climate models together with observations enable an assessed

likely range to be given for climate sensitivity and provide
increased confidence in the understanding of the climate system
response to radiative forcing
• Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. This
is an advance since the TAR’s conclusion that “most of the
observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been
due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”.
 Climate projections (to 2100) – based on scenarios

• driving forces : population, economic growth, technological change

• uncertainty: future evolution of driving forces uncertain
• scenarios: alternate visions of future based on assumptions about
driving forces
• IPCC scenarios: 40 scenarios grouped in 4 families A1, A2, B1, B2
- A1: rapid growth in globalized world, high efficiencies
- A2: rapid growth in a self reliant world
- B1: similar to A1 but more emphasis on information and services
- B2: local solutions for sustainable development

• corresponding GHG emission levels for each scenario

• marker scenarios: for each family identified
Climate projections
Projections
Temperature and precipitation trends over India
for A2 and B2 scenarios (Rupakumar et al, 2006)
 Assessing impacts – crop production
From
scenarios
Weather Crop Models Soil
Rainfall, temperature, texture, pH,
frost, solar radiation, depth, fertility
wind, vapor pressure
Crop
Crop/Variety growt Agronomic
Physiology, inputs
phenology, h and seeds, FYM,
morphology irrigation, fertilizers
yield
Pests Management
type, population/ Dates of planting,
severity fertilization,
irrigation

Fig source: Aggarwal, 2002

 Impacts – crop yields and production in India
Year 80

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 75

0.0 70
Change in grain yield, %

Production , Mtons
-5.0 65

60
-10.0
-15.0 Wheat 55

50

-20.0 Minimum
45

40
-25.0 Maximum
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
-30.0
-35.0
5
Year
Wheat production
in India
Change in grain yield, %

0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
-5

-10
Rice
Minimum Source: Aggarwal, 2002
-15
Maximum
-20

-25
 Economic impacts: crop models + economic
models

Climate change scenarios

Site specific crop yield

changes

Aggregate changes Population

trends
Technology
change Economic impact

Fig source:
Kumar and
Economic
Parikh, 2001 Welfare implications growth
Differential impacts : Development status

Warming impact to India—effect of temperature on farm

value (source: Dinar, 2002)
 Adaptations
• Agronomy: time of planting
• New crops/varieties: drought/heat resistant

With Adaptation

T (+ 2C) + precipitation (+) 7%  GDPAgri 7%

T (+ 3.5C) + precipitation (+ 15% )  GDPAgri  2.5%

 Poverty   Hunger 
(Kavikumar, 2002)
Impacts – global crop yields

maize wheat rice

Impacts – food security

Source: Fischer et al 2002

Impacts on resources - water
Mitigation strategies
Crop management: plant breeding, nutrient management, water
management, rice management, land use change, agroforestry,
Grazing land management
Management of Soil organic matter
Restoration of degraded lands
Livestock management: feed management, dietary additives,
animal breeding
Waste management
Bio-energy
Carbon sequestration – soil as carbon sink
Climate Change and Vulnerability of
Food Systems

HUMAN ACTIVITY

Socio-economic Global Climatic Natural Resources

Changes Changes Changes

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

Impacts Adaptations Mitigation

VULNERABILITY OF FOOD SYSTEMS

Indian agriculture - Climate change vulnerability (TERI, 2003)
Research opportunities

• integrated experimentation and modelling of agricultural

systems with feedbacks, multiple stresses, transient climate
scenarios, uncertainties
• improve resilience of agricultural systems to change
• economic analysis for adaptation processes
• climate-agriculture- environment interactions
• integrate agricultural and climate models