Probability: Living with the Odds

7D Discussion Paragraph
1 web
32. Cancer vs. Heart
Disease
33. Travel Safety
34. Life Expectancy
1 world
35. Travel Safety
36. Vital Statistics
37. Life Expectancies

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc.

Unit 7E

Counting and
Probability

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-3

 7-E

Arrangements with Repetition

If we make r selections from a group of n choices, a
total of n  n      n  n different arrangements are
r

possible.

Example: How many 7-number

license plates are possible?

10 10 10 10 10 10 10  107

There are 10 million different possible license plates.

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-4
 Arrangements with Repetition
CN (1)

 a. How many seven-symbol license plates are

possible if both numerals and letters can be used
in any order?

 b. How many six-character passwords can be

made by combining lowercase letters, uppercase
letters, numerals, and the characters @, $, and &?

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-5

 7-E

Permutations
We are dealing with permutations whenever
 all selections come from a single group of items,
 no item may be selected more than once,
 and the order of arrangement matters.
 e.g., ABCD is different from DCBA

The total number of permutations possible with a

group of n items is n!, where
n! n  n 1     2 1
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-6
Class Schedules
CN (2)
 A middle school principal needs to schedule six
different classes—algebra, English, history,
Spanish, science, and gym—in six different time
periods.

 2. How many different class schedules are

possible?

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-7

 7-E

The Permutations Formula

If we make r selections from a group of n choices,
the number of permutations (arrangements in which
order matters) is
n!
n Pr   n   n  1   n  2    n  r  1
 n  r !

Example: On a team of
10 swimmers, how many possible
4-person relay teams are there?

There are 10  9  8  7  5040

possible relay teams!
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 7-E

The Permutations Formula

Example: If an international track event has
8 athletes participating and three medals (gold, silver
and bronze) are to be awarded, how many different
orderings of the top three athletes are possible?

8! 8  7  6  5!
8 P3    8  7  6  336
 8  3 ! 5!

There are 336 different orderings of the top three

athletes!
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-9
Leadership Election
CN (3)
 A city has 12 candidates running for three
leadership positions. The top vote-getter will
become the mayor, the second vote-getter will
become the deputy mayor, and the third vote-
getter will become the treasurer.

 3. How many outcomes are possible for the three

leadership positions?

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-10

Batting Orders
CN (4)

 4. How many ways can the manager of a

baseball team form a (9-player) batting order from
a roster of 15 players?

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-11

 7-E

Combinations
Combinations occur whenever
 all selections come from a single group of items,
 no item may be selected more than once,
 and the order of arrangement does not matter
 e.g., ABCD is considered the same as DCBA

If we make r selections from a group of n items, the

number of possible combinations is
Pr n!
n Cr  
n
r! n  r !r!
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-12
 7-E

The Combinations Formula

Example: If a committee of 3 people are needed out
of 8 possible candidates and there is not any
distinction between committee members, how many
possible committees would there be?

8! 8! 8  7  6  5! 8  7  6
8 C3      56
8  3!3! 5!3! 5!3! 3  2 1

There are 56 possible committees!

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-13

 7-E
Ice Cream Combinations
CN (5)

 Suppose that you select 3 different flavors of ice

cream in a shop that carries 12 flavors.

 5. How many flavor combinations are possible?

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-14

 7-E
Poker Hands
CN (6a-b)

 a. How many different five-card poker hands can

be dealt from a standard deck of 52 cards?

 b. What is the probability of one particular hand,

such as a royal flush of hearts (ace, king, queen,
jack, and 10)?

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-15

 7-E
(Not) Winning the Lottery
CN (7)

 Suppose you play the lottery in which the winner

is chosen by drawing 6 balls at random from a
drum containing 52 numbered balls (numbered 1
through 52).

 7. What is the probability that your 6 numbers will

match the 6 winning numbers?

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-16

 7-E
Probability and Coincidence
CN (8)
Coincidences are bound to happen.
Although a particular outcome may be highly
unlikely, some similar outcome may be extremely
likely or even certain to occur.

8. What is the probability that at least two people

in a class of 25 have the same birthday?

The answer has the form

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-17

 7-E
Birthday Coincidence

The probability that all 25 students have different

birthdays is

364 363 341 364  363     341

     
365 365 365 36524

1.348  1061
  0.431
3.126  10 61

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-18

 7-E

Birthday Coincidence
The probability that at least two people in a class of
25 have the same birthday is

P(at least one pair of shared birthdays)

= 1 – P(no shared birthdays)
≈ 1 – 0.431 ≈ 0.569 ≈ 57%

The probability that at least two people in a class of

25 have the same birthday is approximately 57%!
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-19
 7-E

Birthday Coincidence
What are the probabilities that someone in a room
of x people will have a birthday in common with
someone else in that room?
y = Probabilities
1

0
x = People in Room

x = People in Room: 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
y = Probabilities: .117 .253 .411 .569 .706 .814 .891 .940

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-20

 7-E

Birthday Coincidence
What are the probabilities that someone in a room
of x people will have a birthday in common with
someone else in that room?
y = Probabilities
1

0
x = People in Room

x = People in Room: 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
y = Probabilities: .117 .253 .411 .569 .706 .814 .891 .940

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-21

 7-E

Birthday Coincidence
What are the probabilities that someone in a room
of x people will have a birthday in common with
someone else in that room?
y = Probabilities
1

0
x = People in Room

x = People in Room: 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
y = Probabilities: .117 .253 .411 .569 .706 .814 .891 .940

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-22

 7-E

Birthday Coincidence
What are the probabilities that someone in a room
of x people will have a birthday in common with
someone else in that room?
y = Probabilities
1

0
x = People in Room

x = People in Room: 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
y = Probabilities: .117 .253 .411 .569 .706 .814 .891 .940

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-23

 7-E

Birthday Coincidence
What are the probabilities that someone in a room
of x people will have a birthday in common with
someone else in that room?
y = Probabilities
1

0
x = People in Room

x = People in Room: 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
y = Probabilities: .117 .253 .411 .569 .706 .814 .891 .940

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-24

 7-E

Birthday Coincidence
What are the probabilities that someone in a room
of x people will have a birthday in common with
someone else in that room?
y = Probabilities
1

0
x = People in Room

x = People in Room: 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
y = Probabilities: .117 .253 .411 .569 .706 .814 .891 .940

How many people in the room would be required for 100% certainty?
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-25
 7-E
Quick Quiz
CN (9)

 9. Please answer the 10 quick quiz multiple

choice questions on p. 465.

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-26

 7-E

Homework 7E
 Discussion Paragraph 7D
 Class Notes 1-9
 P.466:1-10
 1 web
 The “Monty Hall” Problem

 1 world
 59. Lottery Chances

 60. Amazing Coincidence

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-27