Probability: Living with the Odds

Discussion Paragraph 7A

1 web
70. Blood Groups
71. Accidents
1 world
72. Probability in the
News
73. Probability in your
Life
74. Gambling Odds

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc.

Unit 7B

Combining Probabilities

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-3

 7-B

And Probability: Independent Events

Two events are independent if the outcome of one
does not affect the probability of the other event.

If two independent events A and B have individual

probabilities P(A) and P(B), the probability that A
and B occur together is P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B).

This principle can be extended to any number of

independent events.

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-4

 7-B
Consecutive Floods
CN (1)

 1. Find the probability that a 100-year flood (a

flood with a .01 probability of striking in a given
year), will strike a city in two consecutive years.

 Assume that a flood in one year does not affect

the likelihood of a flood in the next year.

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-5

 7-B
Three Coins
CN (2)

 Suppose you toss three coins.

 2. What is the probability of getting three tails?

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-6

 7-B

And Probability: Dependent Events

Two events are dependent if the outcome of one
affects the probability of the other event.
The probability that dependent events A and B
occur together is
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B given A)
where P(B given A) is the probability of event B
given the occurrence of event A.

This principle can be extended to any number of

dependent events.
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-7
 7-B
Bingo
CN (3)
 The game of Bingo involves drawing labeled
buttons from a bin at random, without
replacement. There are 75 buttons, 15 for each
of the letters B, I, N, G, and O.

 3. What is the probability of drawing two B

buttons in the first two selections?

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-8

 7-B
Jury Selection
CN (4)

 A three-person jury must be selected at random

from a pool of 12 people that has 6 men and 6
women.

 4. What is the probability of selecting an all-male

jury?

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-9

 7-B
Either/Or Probabilities:
Non-Overlapping Events
Two events are non-
overlapping if they cannot
occur together, like the
outcome of a coin toss, as
shown to the right.
For non-overlapping events A and B, the probability
that either A or B occurs is shown below.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
This principle can be extended to any number of
non-overlapping events.
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-10
 7-B
Either/Or Dice
CN (5)

 Suppose you roll a single die.

 5. What is the probability of rolling

either a 2 or a 3?

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-11

 7-B
Either/Or Probabilities:
Overlapping Events
Two events are overlapping
if they can occur together,
like the outcome of picking a
queen or a club, as shown to
the right.
For overlapping events A and B, the probability that
either A or B occurs is shown below.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
This principle can be extended to any number of
overlapping events.
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-12
 7-B
Democrats and Women
CN (6)
 You select one person at random from a room
with eight people: two Democratic men, two
Republican men, two Democratic women, and two
Republican women.

 6. What is the probability that you will select

either a woman or a Democrat?

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-13

 7-B

Examples
What is the probability of rolling either a 3 or a 4 on a
single six-sided die?
These are non-overlapping events.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
P(3 or 4) = P(3) + P(4) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3
What is the probability that in a standard shuffled
deck of cards you will draw a 5 or a spade?
These are overlapping events.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
P(5 or spade) = P(5) + P(spade) – P(5 and spade)
= 4/52 + 13/52 – 1/52 = 16/52 = 4/13
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-14
 7-B
The At Least Once Rule
(For Independent Events)

Suppose the probability of an event A occurring in

one trial is P(A). If all trials are independent, the
probability that event A occurs at least once in n trials
is shown below.

P(at least one event A in n trials)

= 1 – P(not event A in n trials)
= 1 – [P(not A in one trial)]n

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-15

 7-B
100 Year Flood
CN (7)

 7. What is the probability that a region will

experience at least one 100-year flood (a flood
that has a .01 chance of occurring in any given
year) during the next 100 years?

 Assume that 100-year floods in consecutive years

are independent events.

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-16

 7-B
Lottery Chances
CN (8)

 You purchase 10 lottery tickets, for which the

probability of winning some prize on a single ticket
is 1 in 10.

 8. What is the probability that you will have at

least one winning ticket among the 10 tickets?

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-17

 7-B
Quick Quiz
CN (9)

 9. Please answer the 10 quick quiz multiple

choice questions on p. 435.

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-18

 7-B
Homework 7B

 Discussion Paragraph 7A
 Class Notes 1-9
 p. 436: 1-10
 1 web
 59. Lottery Chances

 60. HIV Probabilities

 1 world
 61. Combined Probability in the News

 62. Combined Probability in Your Life

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-19