Compiled by :

Name : Ramadan Iqbal Firdaus

NPM : 0215101109

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The phenomenon that occurs because
of the Indonesia Coal Index (ICI) has
decreased in 2014 to 2015, and from
2016 to 2017. It is the same as a
decrease in net profit from the same
year. and several companies running
operations are financed by debts
above 50%

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 Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA)
125
115
105
95
85
75
65
55
45
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA)

in 2014 to 2015 and 2016 to 2017 companies experienced a decline in

Indonesia coal index (ICI), this if it occurs continuously can cause
companies to experience a decline in profits, declining profits can lead
to bankruptcy

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 Net Profit
Nama Perusahaan
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ADRO 6.832 9.232 340.686 536.438 477.541
BSSR 2.544.925 26.367.125 27.421.577 82.816.929 69.093.191
BUMI (465.904.664) (2.185.480.487) 120.255.710 242.746.183 158.218.349
BYAN (189.017.198) 81.798.054 18.015.433 338.017.199 524.309.273
GEMS 10.818.904 2.088.781 34.988.248 120.106.040 100.548.578
HRUM 2.628.331 (18.996.829) 17.979.743 55.748.001 40.205.422
ITMG 200.971 63.107 130.709 252.703 258.756
KKGI 8.002.278 5.672.213 9.472.864 13.439.975 475.600
MBAP 13.923.811 34.663.066 27.113.735 58.635.700 50.310.702
MYOH 268.299.625 24.732.565 21.258.853 12.306.356 30.928.664
PTBA 1.863.781 2.037.111 2.024.405 4.547.232 5.121.112
PTRO 2.356 (12.691) (7.825) 8.311 23.166
SMMT (3.502.096.211) (60.578.867.106) (18.281.061.731) 40.078.001.432 84.584.567.691
TOBA 30.905.799 20.325.579 14.586.772 41.369.891 68.089.796
most companies showed a decrease in net income, a decrease in net profit if the company continues
sustainable can cause trouble to operationalize the company in the future. Companies that are not
able to operationalize the company can lead the company's financial performance deteriorates,
when the company's deteriorating financial performance could have been bankruptcy

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 Debt Asset Ratio
Nama Perusahaan
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ADRO 0,49 0,44 0,42 0,40 0,40
BSSR 0,46 0,40 0,31 0,29 0,44
BUMI 1,16 1,86 1,9 0,92 0,87
BYAN 0,78 0,82 0,77 0,42 0,31
GEMS 0,33 0,3 0,51 0,54 0,54
HRUM 0,1 0,14 0,14 0,19 0,19
ITMG 0,29 0,25 0,29 0,32 0,32
KKGI 0,22 0,14 0,16 0,2 0,20
MBAP 0,32 0,21 0,24 0,21 0,21
MYOH 0,51 0,42 0,27 0,25 0,28
PTBA 0,41 0,45 0,43 0,37 0,34
PTRO 0,59 0,58 0,57 0,59 0,64
SMMT 0,37 0,44 0,4 0,42 0,43

theTOBA
company financed by debt then the0,45
0,53 greater the risk that
0,44 it will get. the0,5
higher the amount
0,48 of
debt the company owned can lead the company into bankruptcy if it was unable to pay its debts

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 PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION

1. How is the prediction of bankruptcy of companies in the sector mining in the sub-sector coal
on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2014-2018 using the Zmijewski model?
2. How is the prediction of bankruptcy of companies in the sector mining in the sub-sector coal
on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2014-2018 using the Grover model?
3. How is the prediction of bankruptcy of companies in the sector mining in the sub-sector coal
on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2014-2018 using the Fulmer model?
4. Are there differences in results between the Zmijewski model and the Grover model in
predicting the bankruptcy of companies in the sector mining in the sub-sector coal listed on
the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2014-2018 ?
5. Are there differences in results between the Zmijewski model and the Fulmer model in
predicting the bankruptcy of companies in the sector mining in the sub-sector coal listed on
the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2014-2018 ?
6. Are there differences in results between the Grover model and the Fulmer model in predicting
the bankruptcy of companies in the sector mining in the sub-sector coal listed on the
Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2014-2018 ?
7. Are there significant differences from each model used in analyzing the predictions of
bankruptcy of companies in the sector mining of the sub-sector coal listed on the Indonesia
Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2014-2018?

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 PURPOSE OF RESEARCH

1. Analyze and test the condition of the company by using the Zmijewski model to predict
Financial Distress in Coal Companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period
2014-2018.
2. Analyze and test the condition of the company by using the Grover model to predict Financial
Distress in Coal Companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2014-2018.
3. Analyze and test the condition of the company by using the Fulmer model to predict Financial
Distress in Coal Companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2014-2018.
4. To find out whether there are differences in bankruptcy predictions between the Zmijewski
model and the Grover model in predicting bankruptcy of companies in the mining sector of
the coal sub-sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2014-2018.
5. To find out whether there are differences in bankruptcy predictions between the Zmijewski
model and the Fulmer model in predicting bankruptcy of companies in the mining sector of
the coal sub-sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2014-2018.
6. To find out whether there are differences in bankruptcy predictions between the Grover
model and the Fulmer model in predicting bankruptcy of companies in the mining sector of
the coal sub-sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2014-2018.
7. To find out whether there is a significant difference from each bankruptcy prediction model in
predicting the bankruptcy of the company in the sector mining in the sub-sector coal is listed
on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2014-2018.


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 RESEARCH OBJECT
• In this study the object of research is all coal companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange
(IDX) period 2014-2018

POPULATION AND SAMPLE

• Population : 22 company
• Sample: 12 Company X 12 Month X 5 Period
• Amount of data : 720

RESEARCH METHOD
• The method used in this study is a comparative descriptive method

TYPES AND SOURCES OF DATA

• The type of data used in this study is secondary data
• The data used in this study is monthly data obtained through the website www.idx.co.id, and
www.saham.ok

TOOL TEST
• Classical assumption tests : Normality test Kolmogorov-Smirnov
• Multiple linear regression analysis, using : Independent T-test, and ANOVA One Way test

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 Nama ZMIJEWSKI Score
No Perusaha
an 2014 Prediksi 2015 Prediksi 2016 Prediksi 2017 Prediksi 2018 Prediksi Rata-rata
1 ADRO -1,5081 TB -1,8241 TB -2,1535 TB -2,3871 TB -2,3857 TB -2,0517
2 BSSR -1,7301 TB -2,7265 TB -3,2205 TB -4,4451 TB -3,3677 TB -3,098
3 BYAN 0,87588 B -0,0464 TB -0,0089 TB -3,622 TB -4,0134 TB -1,363
4 GEMS -3,2426 TB -2,4531 TB -3,0303 TB -2,3429 TB -1,8185 TB -2,5775
5 HRUM -3,28 TB -3,5457 TB -3,7171 TB -4,079 TB -3,7365 TB -3,6717
6 ITMG -3,144 TB -2,8851 TB -3,3706 TB -3,4664 TB -3,2464 TB -3,2225
7 KKGI -3,1013 TB -3,308 TB -3,9224 TB -3,9982 TB -2,8388 TB -3,4337
8 MBAP -2,6711 TB -3,8931 TB -4,1501 TB -4,5898 TB -3,9949 TB -3,8598
9 PTBA -2,4426 TB -2,2824 TB -2,3349 TB -3,118 TB -3,3993 TB -2,7154
10 PTRO -0,972 TB -0,8609 TB -0,9886 TB -1,0218 TB -0,7553 TB -0,9197
11 SMMT -2,1855 TB -1,4122 TB -1,8842 TB -2,1434 TB -2,4127 TB -2,0076
12 TOBA -1,7668 TB -2,0334 TB -2,0741 TB -2,0009 TB -1,6643 TB -1,9079

In 2014 there was 1 company that could potentially bankruptcy

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 Nama Grover Score
No
Perusahaan 2014 Prediksi 2015 Prediksi 2016 Prediksi 2017 Prediksi 2018 Prediksi Rata-rata
1 ADRO 0,566831 TB 0,544028 TB 0,653679 TB 0,917967 TB 0,822535 TB 0,701008
2 BSSR 0,827068 TB 1,699626 TB 1,530143 TB 3,014583 TB 2,34648 TB 1,88358
3 BYAN 0,066153 TB 0,733842 TB 1,197298 TB 2,184597 TB 2,689843 TB 1,374347
4 GEMS 2,043247 TB 1,63311 TB 1,954378 TB 2,336782 TB 1,989388 TB 1,991381
5 HRUM 1,474395 TB 1,303619 TB 1,475341 TB 1,80715 TB 1,649122 TB 1,541925
6 ITMG 1,375307 TB 1,387094 TB 1,395153 TB 1,890536 TB 1,862586 TB 1,582135
7 KKGI 1,085814 TB 1,325734 TB 1,375926 TB 1,363252 TB 0,566602 TB 1,143466
8 MBAP 1,405569 TB 2,982923 TB 2,799263 TB 3,252004 TB 2,669496 TB 2,621851
9 PTBA 1,379331 TB 1,150522 TB 1,155525 TB 1,86625 TB 1,721422 TB 1,45461
10 PTRO 0,782008 TB 0,485598 TB 0,691567 TB 0,616183 TB 0,80816 TB 0,676703
11 SMMT 0,137285 TB -0,03406 B -0,07597 B -0,08912 B -0,01527 G -0,01543
12 TOBA 0,927989 TB 0,865979 TB 0,734727 TB 1,138505 TB 0,981925 TB 0,929825

in 2015, 2016, and 2017 there was 1 company that could potentially bankruptcy
in 2018 there was 1 company in the grey area
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 Nama Fulmer Score
No Perusaha
an 2014 Prediksi 2015 Prediksi 2016 Prediksi 2017 Prediksi 2018 Prediksi Rata-rata
1 ADRO -0,7241 B -0,5766 B -0,2141 B 0,2510 TB 0,2238 TB -0,2080
2 BSSR 2,1053 TB 1,1822 TB 1,4638 TB 4,0397 TB 2,5737 TB 2,2729
3 BYAN -0,1591 B -0,0373 B 0,1366 TB 2,4710 TB 4,2644 TB 1,3351
4 GEMS 0,8646 TB 0,3705 TB 1,5141 TB 1,5016 TB 0,7111 TB 0,9924
5 HRUM 12,1696 TB 6,8255 TB 5,8761 TB 8,1962 TB 4,7715 TB 7,5678
6 ITMG 1,1459 TB 1,3427 TB 1,7272 TB 2,4527 TB 2,0082 TB 1,7353
7 KKGI 4,7489 TB 5,5644 TB 7,7004 TB 7,8919 TB 4,4522 TB 6,0716
8 MBAP 1,1746 TB 3,9574 TB 6,3125 TB 6,7934 TB 4,7006 TB 4,5877
9 PTBA 2,5753 TB 2,2749 TB 2,6764 TB 3,3626 TB 4,5145 TB 3,0807
10 PTRO 0,2675 TB -0,0870 B -0,0136 B -0,1188 B -0,1575 B -0,0219
11 SMMT 0,4975 TB 2,8977 TB 2,5192 TB -0,0874 B 0,7346 TB 1,3123
12 TOBA 0,0504 TB 0,1036 TB 0,2234 TB 0,1422 TB 0,2616 TB 0,1562

in 2014 there was 2 company that could potentially bankruptcy, in 2015 there was 3 company that could potentially bankruptcy, in
2016 there was 2 company that could potentially bankruptcy, in 2017 there was 2 company that could potentially bankruptcy, and in
2018 there was 1 company that could potentially bankruptcy.
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 Independent T-test  ANOVA One Way test
 there are differences in the  there is a significant
predictions of bankruptcy between
the Zmijewski model and the difference between the
Grover model analysis of financial
 there are differences in the
predictions of bankruptcy between
distress with the method
the Zmijewski model and the of Zmijewski, Grover,
Grover model and Fulmer
 there was no difference in the
prediction of bankruptcy between
the Zmijewski model and the
Grover model

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1. Based on descriptive testing, the results obtained are as follows:
a. The results of the Zmijewski model analyst are 1 company that is predicted to go bankrupt
b. The results of the Grover model analysts are 3 companies that are predicted to go bankrupt, and
1 company in the gray area.
c. The results of the Fulmer model analyst are 10 companies that are predicted to go bankrupt
2. Based on the results of the Independent Sample T-test, the results can be summarized as follows
a. There are differences in the predictions of bankruptcy between the Zmijewski model and the
Grover model.
b. There are differences in the predictions of bankruptcy between the Zmijewski model and the
Fulmer model.
c. There were no differences in the predictions of bankruptcy between the Grover model and the
Fulmer model
3. Based on the results of the Independent Sample T-test, the results can be summarized as follows
Based on the results of the One Way ANOVA test, it can be concluded that there is a significant
difference between the analysis of financial distress and the Zmijewski, Grover, and Fulmer methods in
the coal sub-sector mining companies in the 2014-2018 period.

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For Authors
It is expected to be used as a means to train yourself in thinking scientifically through scientific
disciplines, especially Financial Management and applying it to data obtained from research
objects

For Companies
- For companies that are predicted to go bankrupt, companies should be better able to pay
attention to reducing the level of corporate debt costs to below 50% or 0.5 so that the
condition of their assets, especially working capital flows must always be positive in order to
avoid adverse effects towards company performance and pay attention to net income
(retained earnings) obtained by the company so that the net income generated is always in a
positive condition, and increase sales.
- For a company that is predicted not to go bankrupt or healthy, it is better to pay attention to
aspects that affect the company and take precautions to avoid bankruptcy, namely by paying
more attention to the amount of debt that exists with sales and profits generated, so that
profit, debt and sales go balanced.

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For Academics
- Further research can use different bankruptcy prediction models
- For parties who will conduct more in-depth research on this issue, it is
recommended to examine companies that have been declared bankrupt in the coal
sub-sector mining industry so that more accurate results are obtained

For Investors
This research is expected to provide information for prospective investors to make
considerations in making decisions that make decisions about investment in both the
short and long term in studying the potential level of bankruptcy of the company

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Faculty Of Business and Management