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(with solutions)
Try solving these problems and compare with the solutions
1. One bag contains 4 white balls and 2 black balls; another contains 3 white and
5 black. If one ball is drawn from each bag, find the probability that (a) both are
white; (b) both are black; (c) one is white and one is black.
2. A and B play a game in which they alternately toss a pair of dice. The one
who is first to get a total of 7 wins the game. Find the probability that (a) one
who tosses first will win the game; (b) one who tosses second will win the
game.
Reminder: Infinite Geometric Progression
Solution, Of 12000 bolts, 360 are defective and 11640 are not.
P= C11640,588 C360,12 /C12000,600 = 0.0347277
Some comments: This problem caused some controversy. Some of you suggested that the
probability of finding a defective bolt is 0.03. Then the probability could be estimated
through the Binomial distribution
p(12 out of 600) = C600,12 0.03120.97588~0.036 (Eq. 2). This is very close indeed to
the result of Eq. 1. May be this tiny difference is just a result of an error?
To demonstrate that this is not true, we consider a simpler example.
Suppose that there are 10 balls, 6 are black and 4 are white. What is the
probability that of 4 balls chosen at random, 2 are white.
The conventional solution is p= C4,2C6,2/C6,4=0.429. Trying to be silly, we can also use a
Binomial formula assuming that the probabilities are 3/5 and 2/5:
p = C4,2(2/5)2(3/5)2= 0.346.
This time the difference is significant. In addition, we can now understand the source of the
problem, The Binomial distribution can be used only when the probabilities of two outcomes do
not depend on the number of previous trials. This condition is not fulfilled in our example. The
probability of choosing a white ball depends on the outcomes of previous selections.
The same is true for the “bolts” problem, although the differences are much less significant.
Suggestion : try to investigate how the results derived with Eqs. 1 and 2 depend on the total
number of bolts n (initially we had n=12000). Change n from 100 to 100000. Use Matematica.
The function below utilizes Eq. 1 and can be useful. We still assume that 600 bolts are
selected, and the probability of 12 defective bolts is questioned.
f[n_]:= Binomial[0.03*n,12]*Binomial[0.97 n, 588]/Binomial[n,600]//N
Please, let me know about the outcome. Good luck.
4. The probabilities that a husband and wife will be alive 30 years from now
are given by 0.7 and 0.8 respectively. Find the probability that in 20 years (a)
both (b) neither (c) at least one, will be alive.
5. Four different mathematics books, six different physics books, and two
different chemistry books are to be arranged on a shelf. How many different
arrangements are possible if (a) the books in each particular subject must
all stand together. (b) only the mathematics books must stand together
8. The odds in favor of A winning a game of chess against B are 3:2. If three
games are to be played, what are the odds (a) in favor of A winning at least 2
games; (b) against A of losing the first two games to B
10. A pair of dice is tossed repeatedly. (a) Find the probability that the sum of 11
occurs for the first time on the 6-th toss.
11. Find the probability of scoring a total of 7 points (a) once, (b) at least once,
(c) twice, in two tosses of a pair of dice.
15. In how many ways can 4 boys and 4 girls pair off? In how many ways can they
stay in a row in alternating gender?
Answer: (a) 4! (b) 2*4! 4!
16 A marble is drawn at random from a box containing 10 red, 30 white, 20
blue and 15 orange marbles. Find a probability that it is (a) orange or red
(b) nor red or blue
Answer: (a) 10/75+15/75= 1/3 (b) 45/75= 3/5
17. Two marbles are drawn at random with replacement from a box
containing 10 red, 30 white, 20 blue and 15 orange marbles. Find a
probability that (a) the first is blue and the second is orange (b) they are
either red or white or both (red and white). Hint: "both" consists of 2
outcomes, depending on the order.
Answer: (a) 20*15/(75*75)= 4/75
(b) ((10/75)²+(30/75)²+2*10*30)/(75*75)= 64/225