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Sekilas tentang

Pengambilan Keputusan
(Materi Matrikulasi MM-UA)

BY :
Dr. LEO HERLAMBANG
Universitas Airlangga
January, 2018

LH-Consulting
Decision
- A Decision is a choice made from available
alternatives
- Decision Making is the process of identifying
problems and opprtunities and then resolving
them.
Types of Decision
P_NP
1. Programmed Decision
2. Non Programmed Decision
Decision - Making Models
C_A_P
1. Model Classical Model
2. Administrative Model
3. Political Model

The choice of model depend on the manager’s


preference, whether the decision is programmed or
not programmed, and the degree of uncertainty
associated with the decision
Decision - Making
1. Model Classical Model
- Normative
2. Administrative Model
- Bounded Rationality & satisfying
- intuition
3. Political Model
- Coalition
Characteristic Decision Models
Classical Administrative Political
1. Clear-cut 1. Vague problem 1. Pluralistic,
problems & and goals conflicting
goals
goals
2. Condition of
certainty 2. Uncertainty 2. Uncertainty &
3. Full ambiguity
information 3. Incosistent
about 3. Limited
viewpoints
alternatives & information
their outcomes 4. Bargaining &
4. Satisficing choice
4. Rational choice Discussion
for resolving
by individual among
for maximizing problem using
coalition
outcomes intuition member
6
6 Decision – Making Steps
1. Recognition of Decision Requirement
- Problem -> Opportunity
2. Diagnosis & Analysing of Cause
-7W1H
3. Development of alternatives
4. Selection of Desired Alternatives
- manager’s risk prospensity
5. Implementation of Chosen Alternative
6. Evaluation & Feedback
Why Do Managers
Make Bad Decision ?
1. Being influenced by initial impressions
2. Justifying past decision
3. Seeing what yo want to see
4. Perpetuating the status quo
5. Being influenced by emotions
6. Overconfidence
Innovative Group
Decision Making
1. Start with brainstorming
2. Engage in rigorous debate
3. Avoid groupthink
4. Know when to bail
5. Act with Speed
6. Don’t ignore a Crisis
Evidence –Based
Management
1. Demand Evidence
2. Practice the Five Evidence
3. Do a Postmortem review
4. Balance Decisiveness and humility

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