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Project Analysis and Decision Making
Project Analysis and Decision Making
Engineering 90
Dr. Gregory Crawford
Four Ways to do Project Analysis
Decision Tree
What’s the
difference?
E[( x X ) ]
2
2
Variance of x: X
Median = “the center of the set of numbers”; or the point m such that P(x <
m)< ½ and P(x > m)> ½ .
Simple Example – Widget Sales
14
Sales (in $ Millions)
12
10
8
Series1
6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8
Time (in years)
Linear Projections
Linear Projection
60
50
Sales (in $ M)
40
Actual Data
30
Projected Function
20
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Time (in years)
n
x y nxn yn
B̂2 i 1 i i
Bˆ 1 yn Bˆ 2 xn
n
i 1
x 2
i nx 2
n
Projected Sales
14
12 New function
10
$ Millions
8
Series1
6 Data
4
2 data
0
-2 0 2 4 6 8
Time
Revenue: $ 375,000,000
Variable Cost $ 300,000,000
Fixed Cost: $ 30,000,000
Depreciation $ 15,000,000
Tax: $ 15,000,000
Net Profit (Pretax Profit - Tax): $ 15,000,000
Revenue: $ 375,000,000
Variable Cost $ 300,000,000
Fixed Cost: $ 30,000,000
Depreciation $ 15,000,000
Tax: $ 15,000,000
Net Profit: $ 15,000,000
Operating Cash Flow $ 30,000,000
Standard Distribution
0.1
0.08
Probability
0
-0.02 50 60 70 80 90 100
Test Scores
Equations (Mmmm…
Math)
Cost of project
Projected Cash Flows
0.1
0.08
Frequency
0
-0.02 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80
• A Visual Representation of
Choices, Consequences,
Probabilities, and Opportunities.
• A Way of Breaking Down
Complicated Situations Down to
Easier-to-Understand Scenarios.
Decision Tree
Easy Example
Go to Graduate School to
get my MBA.
Benefits of Learning
According to Ronald School Net Value ($)
Harvard $148,378
Yeaple, it is only profitable Chicago $106,378
Stanford $97,462
to go to one of the top 15 MIT (Sloan) $85,736
Business Schools – Yale
Northwestern
$83,775
$53,526
otherwise you have a Berkeley $54,101
Wharton $59,486
NEGATIVE NPV! UCLA $55,088
Virginia $30,046
Cornell $30,974
Michigan $21,502
Dartmouth $22,509
(Economist, Aug. 6, 1994) Carnegie Mellon $18,679
Texas $17,459
Rochester - $307
Indiana - $3,315
North Carolina - $4,565
Duke - $17,631
NYU - $3,749
Things he may
have missed
A few days later she was told that if she expands, she can
opt to either (a) expand the factory further if the economy
is good which costs 1.5M, but will yield an additional $2M
in profit when economy is good but only $1M when
economy is bad, (b) abandon the project and sell the
equipment she originally bought for $1.3M, or (c) do
nothing.
• Good Economy
– Expand further = 8M – 1.5M = 6.5M
– Do nothing = 6M
– Abandon Project = 3M + 1.3M = 4.3M
• Bad Economy
– Expand further = 3M – 1.5M = 1.5M
– Do nothing = 2M
– Abandon Project = 1M + 1.3M = 2.3M
NPV of the
Project
Year 0 Year 1
Time Value of Money
Year 0 Year 1
Should she buy?
• NPV of purchase =
– .65(600,000/1.1) + .35(200,000/1.1) – 400,000
= $18,181.82
• Therefore, she should do the project!
• What happens if the discount rate = 15%?
– The NPV = 0, so it probably is not worth it.
• What happens if the discount rate = 20%?
– The NPV = - $16,666.67; so you should not buy!