MATH 361: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

5TH DAY OF SEPTEMBER 2019

LECTURE DELIVERED BY

Malik Rizwan

Contact
0334 5089011
malik_rizwan67@hotmail.com
 MATH 361: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

Weightage
 Quizzes 10%
 OHT 1 15% (7th Week)
 OHT 2 15% (13th Week)
 Project 10 %
 Ese 50% (18th Week)

Books
 Advance Engineering Mathematics, Erwin Kreyszig, 10th Edition
 Probability And Statistics, Murray R. Speigel
Course Content
 Graphical Representation Of Data Using
Stem-and-leaf Plot, Histogram, box-plot
 Mean, Mode, Median
 Standard Deviation And Variance
 Sample Space And Experiment Outcomes
 Set Theory
 Probability Theory/Theorems and
Conditional Probability
 Sampling With/Without Replacement
 Permutations And Combinations
 Random Variables And Probability
Distributions
 Mean And Variance Of A Distribution
 Expectation, Moments
 Binomial, Poisson & Hypergeometric
distributions
 Normal Distribution
 Distributions Of Several Random Variables
 Random Sampling
 Point Estimation Of Parameters
 Confidence Intervals
 Testing Of Hypothesis. Decisions
 Quality Control, Control Chart
 Acceptance Sampling, Errors &
Rectification
 What Is P&S And It’s Uses In Engineering World?
STATISTICS
 Deals With Collection, Presentation, Analysis And Use Of Data (Qualitative Or Quantitative) To
Make Decisions And Solve Problems In Designing Products And Processes.
 Different Statistical Tools (Mean, Mode Variance Etc.) And Models (Regression Model Etc.) Are
Used To Carry out Above Mentioned Tasks.

EXAMPLE
You Want To Report Velocities Of Cars Passing A Certain Point On The Road (Experiment). Let Us
Consider A Hard And An Easy Way To Do It.
The Hard Way Is Spending Days, Weeks Or Months Measuring The Velocity Of Every Single Car Passing
From That Point And Reporting Your Data In An Endless Excel Spreadsheet.
The Easy Way Is Selecting A Few Say 50 Random Cars As Representative Sample For The Velocities On
A Day Or So And Computing Its Average And Standard Deviation (Statistical Tools) And Reporting
(Representation Of Data) Only Those Two Numbers As An Approximate Description Of This Velocity.
Representing A Quantity By An Average And A Standard Deviation Is A Very Simple Form Of Statistical
Modelling.
 What Is P&S And It’s Uses In Engineering World?
Probability Is Used To

 Quantify The Likelihood Or Chance Of An Event To Occur Taking In Account Of

Different Variables Effecting The Event

 Represent The Risk Or Uncertainty Involved In Engineering Applications

Example

 Coin Flip In A Toss (Random Experiment) And To Calculate The Probability For A Head
Or Tail (Desired Event).

 Probability Of A Number (Desired Event) Facing Up When A Dice Is Rolled (Random

Experiment).
 Different Engineering Applications That Use S&P

 Testing Materials
 Control Of Production Processes
 Quality Control Of Production Outputs
 Performance Tests Of Systems
 Robotics And Automatization In General
 Production Planning
 Marketing Analysis And So On…….
 Representation: Graphical Representation Of Data
 Data
A Data Is Series Of Facts From Which Conclusions May Be Drawn.
 Raw Data
Values Collected In A Survey Or Experiment That Are Unarranged And Uncategorised Are Called Raw Data.
Raw Data Can Be Arranged Using Different Data Representation Or Arrangement Techniques. E.G.
Velocities For Automotive In Km/H 57, 8, 6, 9, 3, 15 ,3, 57, 9, 9, 10
 Variable
In Order To Collect Data, We Need To Measure Some Property Of The Subject Under Consideration. This
Property Is Called Variable.
Gender/Age/Score Of Students In A Class
Velocity Of Cars Passing By Some Point
Tensile Strength Of Different Metal Sheets
Further There Are Two Types Of Variables:
 Qualitative
A Variable Is Qualitative If It Is Not Possible For It To Take A Numerical Value Or The Property Measured Can
Only Be Expressed In Words Rather Numbers.
Colour Of Different Specimen Undergoing Same Series Of Chemical Tests
Genders In A Group Of People
A Variety Of Food Whether Served Hot Or Cold
 Representation: Graphical Representation Of Data
 Quantitative
A Variable Is Quantitative If It Can Take A Numerical Value Or In Simple Words The Measurement Of The
Property Taken Can Be Expressed In The Form Of Numbers E.G. Temperature, Length, Age Etc. It Is
Further Divided In To
 Continuous Variable
Such A Variable Which Can Take Any Numerical Value Between A Certain Range Is Called Continuous
Variable.
Tensile Strength Of Materials
Time Required To Do A Certain Task
Mass Of Different Animals In A Zoo
 Discrete Variable
Such A Variable That Can Only Take A Specific Numerical Value Out Of Pre-stated Values Or Range Is
Called Discrete Variable And Has Clear Steps Between Its Possible Values.
Ratings Between 1-5 For Different Restaurants
Number Of Red Marbles In A Jar
Outcomes Of A Rolled Dice
 Stem-and-leaf Diagram
 Absolute Frequency
The Number Of Times A Value Occurs Is Called Its Absolute Frequency
 Cumulative Absolute Frequency
The Sum Of The Absolute Frequencies Of The Values Up To The Line Of The Leaf Is Called
Cumulative Absolute Frequency
EXAMPLE
9 12 18 13 19 15 20 23 29 22 39 38 32 35 37 38 38 49 43 42 46 58 59 50 53 55 66 67 65 71

Key 1I2 means 12

Figure 1 Stem And Leaf Diagram Figure 2 Ordered Stem And Leaf Diagram
 Histogram
 A Histogram Is Used For Larger Set Of Data And Is Better In Displaying The Distribution Of Data.
 The Bars In A Histogram Has No Spaces Between Them And Area Of Each Bar Is Proportional To
The Frequency
 For Large Sets Of Data, The Data Is Divided Into Classes Or Class Intervals.
 A Grouped Frequency Distribution Shows How Many Values Of The Variable Lie In Each Class.
 There Is No Clear Rule About How Many Classes Should Be Chosen Or What Size They Should Be.
 Class Boundaries Are The Upper And Lower End Values In Each Class Interval, Which Are Used To
Accommodate Different Values Of The Data Set In Each Interval.
 Histogram
 Class Marks Are The Midpoints Of Class Intervals.
 Relative Frequency Is The Fraction Of Times A Value Occurs Given By
Absolute Frequency/ Total Number Of Values, Cases, Frequency
 Cumulative Relative Frequency Is The Sum Of The Relative Frequencies For All Values That Are Less
Than Or Equal To The Given Value.
 For Equal Class Intervals, The Height Of The Bar Is Equal To The Frequency In That Class
Interval.
 If Class Intervals Are Unequal Then We Use Either The Relative Frequency Or Frequency Density
As Entities On Y-axis, So That Area Of The Rectangle Or Bar Is Proportional Or Equal To The
Frequency Respectively. Where Frequency Density Is Given By
Height Or Frequency Density = Absolute Frequency/ Width Of Class Interval
 Histogram

CLASS CUMULAT RELAT CUMULAT CLASS FREQ

CLASS LIMIT CLASS BOUNDARIES FREQ
MARK FREQ FREQ RELAT FREQ WIDTH DENSITY

40-49 39.5-49.5 3 44.5 3 0.005 0.005 10 0.3

50-59 49.5-59.5 10 54.5 13 0.016 0.021 10 1

60-69 59.5-69.5 53 64.5 66 0.083 0.103 10 5.3

70-79 69.5-79.5 107 74.5 173 0.167 0.270 10 10.7

80-89 79.5-89.5 147 84.5 320 0.229 0.499 10 14.7

90-99 89.5-99.5 130 94.5 450 0.202 0.701 10 13

100-109 99.5-109.5 78 104.5 528 0.121 0.823 10 7.8

110-119 109.5-119.5 59 114.5 587 0.092 0.915 10 5.9

120-129 119.5-129.5 36 124.5 623 0.056 0.971 10 3.6

130-139 129.5-139.5 11 134.5 634 0.017 0.988 10 1.1

140-149 139.5-149.5 6 144.5 640 0.009 0.997 10 0.6

150-159 149.5-159.5 1 154.5 641 0.002 0.999 10 0.1

160-169 159.5-169.5 1 164.5 642 0.002 1.000 10 0.1

Data For Scores Acquired By Different Students In A Class

Histogram

Class Mark = 84.5

Score
 Measures Of Location/ Measure Of Central Tendency
There Are Three Different Measure Of Location Or Central Tendency
 Mean
 Median
 Mode
All These Are Used To Find A Central Point/ Typical Or A Single Value To Describe A Set Of Different Values
And Then Compare With Other Sets Of Data.
 Mean
The Mean Of A Data Set Is Equal To The Sum Of The Values In The Data Set Divided By The Total Number
Of Values.
49,56,89,66,39,40
Mean = 49+56+89+66+39+40 = 56.5
6
Mathematically Given By
 Measures Of Location/ Measure Of Central Tendency
 Median
Median Is Simply The Middle Value Of An Arranged Set Of Data Or It Is A Value In A Data Set That Has
Equal Numbers Of Values Above And Below. If Total Number Of Values Is Odd Then Its Just The Middle
Number When Arranged And For Even Number Of Total Values,
Given By
1/2 (n+1)th Value If n Is Odd
Halfway Between 1/2nth Value And The Following Value If n Is Even
39, 40, 49, 56, 66, 89
Median = 49+56 = 52.5 (Half Of 1/2nth And Following Value)
2
 Mode
It Is The Most Frequently Occurring Value Or A Value With Higher Frequency. A Data Set Can Have More
Than One Mode Or None If All Values Have Same Frequency Or Reoccurrence.
49,56,39,49,28,95
Mode Is 49
 Measures Of Spread
As Clear From The Name, These Measures Are Used To Check The Spread Of A Data
A: 48 52 60 60 60 68 72
B: 0 10 60 60 60 110 120
Now Both Sets Have Equal Mean=median= Mode=60
In Such Cases We Go For Data Spread. In The Above Case, 'B' Has More Spread Then ‘A’ Due To The
Outliers. On The Other Hand Measures Of Location Are Of Less Help.
 Outliers
The Values In A Data Set That Lie Far Away From Other Values Are Called Outliers. Outlier Could Be
More Than One. It May Also Indicate That Something Went Wrong With The Data Collection Process.
A Value More Than A Distance Of 1.5xIQR From Either End Of The Box In A Box Plot Is An Outlier.
$1000, $1000, $900, $5000, $5500, $1200, $1300, $800
$5500 And $5000 Are Outliers
 Range
The Spread (Variability) Of The Data Values Can Be Measured By The Range, Given By
R = Highest Value – Lowest Value (Of The Data)
It Ignores Pattern Of Spread But Only Consider The Extreme Values.
39,40,49,56, 66, 89
R = 89 – 39 = 50