Analyzing the Performance of

Industrial Exports from India

Minor Project Report

Presented by:
LUNATIC
Under the Supervision of- LUNATIC
 Layout of Presentation

 Introduction
 Theoretical Framework
 Objectives
 Methodology
Introduction:
 International trade refers to exchange of goods and services between
countries.

 It was earlier assumed that the periphery which is the set of poor and
developing economies would remain primary exporters and the centre which
is the set of developed countries would grow in strength as industrial
exporters.

 Earlier, there was no hope for developing economies to emerge as industrial

exporters. The report basically examines India’s case for becoming an
industrial exporter despite being an over-populated developing economy. This
possibility of international specialization has emerged with the development
of new economic global environment.
 Conceptual Framework
 It was expected that India being a labour-surplus economy would specialize in
labour-intensive commodities namely primary exports.
 However, the industrialization strategy as laid down in the four decades of
planned economic development has focused on import-substitution particularly
building up of a capital goods base. But this was not restricted only to capital
goods base.
 Thus, the first four decades laid down the basis for broad-based
industrialization.
 Though import-substitution led to decline in dependence on imports. It is still
often argued that such a strategy was not in line with India’s comparative
advantage. In fact, during the first four decades, India’s industrialization strategy
prevented the growth of industrial exports.
 The only feasible strategy for rapid economic development to step up industrial
growth was import-substituting industrialization.
 However, two more expectations were there:
 Growing capital base would enable the formation of broad-based
industrialization.
 Ultimately, this broad-based industrialization would lead to formation of
new economic structure.
 After four decades, industrial capacity build up.
 Productivity increases in industry due to greater internal specialization and cost
reduction.
 On the other hand, primary production could not keep pace.
 Thus, industrial exports have grown.
Rationale

 The foreign exchange position was expected to grow.

 As a consequence, the expectation was that India’s production structure
would become more competitive.
 Given the development of the industrial base, the cost-advantage would move
in favour of industrial commodities.
 The question , therefore, is what has been the performance of the industrial
exports in India
 Objective of the Study

• To review the comparison between non-industrial

(agricultural) exports and industrial exports in
terms of value.
• To know what goods are exported.
• To know major export company in India.
• To know how India being such an overpopulated
economy became one of the major industrial
exporter.
 Data and Methodology
• Data Collection: Data on industrial exports and
agricultural exports has been collected from
Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence
and Statistics (DGCIS), Ministry of Commerce.
These variables are observed annually over the
period 1992-2013 and consist of 22 data points.
• Methodology: In order to analyze performance in
India’s industrial exports, Linear Trend Equation
model is used.
Comparison of Industrial and Non-Industrial Exports: VALUE
In order to analyze the comparison between agricultural exports and industrial
exports, Linear Trend Model is used

The simplest functional form is the linear functional form where the relationship
between the dependent and independent variable is graphically represented by a
straight line. It is represented as follows:

 The above equation is linear in variables as well as linear in parameters. In this

model, the time variable t is known as the trend variable. If the slope coefficient
is positive, there is upward trend in Y, whereas if it is negative, there is
downward trend in Y.
Comparison of Industrial and Agricultural Exports: Value

160000000
Agricultal & Industrial Exports: Value (Rs. Lakhs)

140000000

120000000

100000000
Agricultural
80000000 Exports :
Value (Rs.
60000000 Lakhs)
Industrial
40000000 Exports :
Value (Rs.
Lakhs)
20000000

0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
92. 94. 96. 98. 00. 02. 04. 06. 08. 10. 12.
19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

It has been analyzed from the aboveYearfigure that over the past 21 years, both industrial
exports and agricultural exports show a rising trend but industrial exports has grown
faster than the agricultural exports.
 Comparison between Industrial Exports and Agricultural Exports: Index

Comparison between industrial exports and industrial exports is also analyzed through
index taking 1992 as base year. Index of value also shows that industrial exports are
growing faster than agricultural exports. This is shown in figure:
4500

4000

3500

3000

2500
Index of
AE
2000
Index of
1500 IE

1000

500

0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
92. 93. 94. 95. 96. 97. 98. 99. 00. 01. 02. 03. 04. 05. 06. 07. 08. 09. 10. 11. 12. 13.
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
THANK YOU