Course content

 Introduction to Probability and Random Variables: Axioms

of Probability; Joint Probability; Conditional probability;
Random Variable (RV): Discrete and Continuous Random
variables.
 Probability Distributions: Probability Density Function;
Cumulative Distribution Function; Poisson’s Distribution,
Uniform Distribution, Gamma Distribution, Exponential
Distribution, normal Distribution, Lognormal Distribution
and Extreme Value Distribution; Probability Plotting,
Fitting a Distribution, goodness-of-fit tests.
 Conditional and Joint Distribution Functions: Conditional
CDF, Joint Distribution Function, Marginal Distribution
Function.
 Course content
 Function of RV: Monotonically Increasing and Decreasing
Functions; Function of Jointly Distributed RVs, Moments
of a RV.
 Multivariate Statistics: Joint Central Moments; Covariance
Matrix; Correlation Co-efficient and statistical
significance.
 Randomness in Response Variable: known functional
relationship, central limit theorem, partial and
approximate solutions, unknown functional relationship.
 Linear Regression Analysis: Simple linear regression
analysis, coefficient of determination, Multiple linear and
non-linear regression analysis, Hypothesis Testing.
 Course content
 Reliability Analysis: Introduction to risk analysis, First
Order Reliability Analysis, Monte-Carlo Simulations,
LRFD approach, target reliability, response surface
method, sensitivity analysis, system reliability.

 Spatial Variability: Statistical homogeneity,

autocorrelation function, Autocorrelation distance.

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 Course Objectives
 Importance of probability-based designs in engineering,
 Statistical evaluation of random variables,
 assigning a suitable probability distribution to a given dataset
through hypothesis testing,
 characterizing the uncertainty associated with various
independent and dependent variables,
 correlation between random variables,
 estimating the probability of failure of a limit state,
 generating pseudo-random data for a given variable,
 estimation of probability of failure and reliability index,
 understanding the importance of partial factor design
approach,
 concept of spatial variability, and
 estimation of autocorrelation function.

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 Text Book
 Haldar, A. and Mahadevan, S. (1999): Probability,
Reliability and Statistical Methods in Engineering
Design, Wiley Publication.

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Text Book
 Text Book
 Ang, A.H-S., and Tang, W.H. (2007). Probability
Concepts in Engineering: Emphasis on Applications
to Civil and Environmental Engineering, Wiley
Publication.

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Text Book
 Reference Books
 Benjamin, J.R. and Cornell, C.A. (1970), Probability, statistics
and decisions for civil engineers, John Wiley, New York.

 Fenton, G.A. and Griffiths, D.V. (2008). Risk Assessment in

Geotechnical Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

 Haldar, A., and Mahadevan, S. (2000). Reliability assessment

using stochastic finite element analysis. John Wiley and
Sons, New York

 Papoulis, A. (1991). Probability, random variables and stochastic

processes, 3rd Edition, McGraw-Hill, New York.

 Ranganathan, R. (1999). Structural reliability analysis and

design. Jaico Publishing House, Mumbai.

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 Course Evaluation
Class Tests 30%

Mid-semester Exam 30%

End-semester Exam. 40%

12
Malin Landslide
th
(30 July 2014)
Malin Landslide
th
(30 July 2014)
Mumbai-Pune Expressway
th
landslide (19 July 2015)
 This monsoon
Malad retaining wall
collapse, 2nd July,
2019

Pune retaining wall

collapse, 29th June,
2019

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This Monsoon

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19
20
 Mumbai-Goa Highway Bridge (near
Raigad) Collapse (3rd August, 2016)

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 CST Railway Bridge Collapse
(14th March,2019)

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 and TODAY

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24
 0.3 m

3.3 m Unit weight of

Asphalt layer
soil = 18 kN/m3

Unit Weight of
RCC=25 kN/m3
1.5 m Friction angle
2.1 m of soil=30 deg.
0.6 m

2.7 m

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 Characteristic Strength
 The strength of material below which not more than
5% of test results are expected to fall.

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 Characteristic Load
 Value of load which has a 95% probability of not
being exceeded during the life of the structure.

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Characteristic Value?

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 Design Strength
 Design Strength=Characteristic strength/partial
safety factor

 Design load= Characteristic load x partial safety

factor

 Partial safety factor for concrete

 Partial safety factor for steel

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