Climate Change 3

T.Ivanova, M.Kolaříková, M.Dvořák, V.Krepl

Health and Environmental Effects

1) Health
2) Agriculture&Food Supply
3) Forests
4) Ecosystems&Biodiversity
5) Water resources
6) Energy Production&Use
7) Coastal Zones
8) Polar Rerions
9) Extreme Events&
Abrupt Climate Change
Health and Environmental Effects

1) Health
 Health and Environmental Effects - Health

Extreme temperatures can directly lead to loss

of life, while climate-related disturbances in
ecological systems, such as changes in the
range of infective parasites, can indirectly
impact the incidence of serious infectious
diseases.

In addition, warm temperatures can increase

air and water pollution, which in turn harm
human health.
Direct Temperature Effects
Increases in average temperatures are expected
to result in new record-high temperatures and
warm nights (NRC, 2001).
Particular segments of the population such as
those with
heart problems,
asthma,
the elderly,
the very young,
the homeless
can be especially vulnerable to extreme heat.
By investigation of many institutions world wide climate
change may affect the frequency and severity of
extreme events (hurricanes, extreme heat, floods, etc).
Extreme weather events can be destructive to human
health and well-being.

An increase in the frequency of extreme events may

result in more event-related:
deaths,
injuries,
infectious diseases,
stress-related disorders,
etc.
Climate change may increase the risk of climate
sensitive diseases - infectious diseases.

Particularly those diseases that appear in warm areas

and are spread by mosquitoes and other insects.
These "vector-borne" diseases include:
• malaria,
• dengue fever,
• yellow fever,
• Encephalitis,
• etc.
“Water-borne” diseases (such as cholera) may increase
where warmer air and water temperatures combine
with heavy runoff from agricultural and urban surfaces.
Also, algal blooms could occur more frequently as
temperatures warm.
- These diseases may be largely contained by standard
water-treatment practices.
Higher temperatures, in combination with favorable
rainfall patterns, could prolong disease transmission
seasons in some locations where certain diseases
already exist.
In other locations, climate change will decrease
transmission via reductions in rainfall or temperatures
that are too high for transmission. (For example,
temperature and humidity levels must be sufficient for certain
disease-carrying vectors, such as ticks that carry Lyme disease, to
thrive).
Though average global temperatures are expected to
continue to rise, the potential for an increase in the
spread of diseases will depend not only on climatic but
also on non-climatic factors, primarily the effectiveness
of the public health system (WHO, 2003).
 Air Quality - Health Problems

Climate change is expected to contribute to air quality

problems (IPCC, 2001).
Respiratory disorders may be exacerbated by
warming.
• Increase of ground-level ozone: ground-level ozone can
damage lung tissue, and is especially harmful for those
with asthma and other chronic lung diseases.
• Increase in concentration of "particulate matter“ (PM)
- wildfires and dust from dry soils – can link to significant
health problems – when breathed in, these particles can
reach the deepest regions of the lungs.
Other Health Linkages
Other, less direct linkages exist between climate
change and human health.
For example:
regional climate change impacts on agricultural yields,
water resources are likely to grow over time, with the
most negative effects expected in developing
countries.
If temperatures increase beyond optimum thresholds
in the tropics, for example, the number of
undernourished people in the developing world could
increase (IPCC, 2001).
Health and Environmental Effects

2) Agriculture and Food Supply

 Health and Environmental Effects – Agriculture and Food Supply

Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability

(change of temperature, rainfall, ground level ozone…)
and extreme events (droughts, floods, severe
storms…).
Challenge of farmers.
• An increase in average temperature can:
1)lengthen the growing season in regions with a
relatively cool spring,
2)adversely affect crops in regions where summer
heat already limits production,
3)increase soil evaporation rates, and
4)increase the chances of severe droughts.
•Changes in rainfall can affect:
• soil erosion rates and
• soil moisture,
both of which are important for crop yields.
•Higher levels of ground level ozone limit the growth of
crops. Tropospheric ozone injury to
mainland plant, Curly Dock
Rumex crispus

•Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events

remain a key uncertainty about future climate change -
such changes are anticipated by global climate models -
but regional changes are more difficult to forecast.
 Source: Climate Change
Impacts and Adaptation
Program (Canada) web site
Health and Environmental Effects

3) Forests
 Health and Environmental Effects – Forest

Forests are sensitive to climatic variability and change.

Climate change effects on forests are likely to include:
• changes in forest health and productivity
• changes in the geographic range of certain tree species.
• timber production,
These effects can in turn alter:
• outdoor recreational activities,
• water quality,
• wildlife,
• rates of carbon storage.

Climatic factors that are likely to play an important role in

future forest conditions are: air temperature, rainfall,
atmospheric levels of CO2 and GHG, extreme events,
wildfire events.
Source: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/posters/on/on_07_e.php
 Temperature •Forest Location
expected to change
and •Forest Composition
precipitation •Forest Productivity
changes

Climate change is likely to drive the migration of tree

species, resulting in changes in the geographic
distribution of forest types and new combinations of
species within forests.
The IPCC noted:
"Some species do occupy sites that are on the limits
of their physiological tolerance, and if climate change
takes local climate beyond that threshold, clearly they
will not be able to persist at that site".
Tree growth rates may increase with increasing levels
of atmospheric CO2, but these effects are expected to
saturate over time as tree communities adjust to
increased CO2 levels – will alter rates of carbone
storage (sequestration) in trees and soils.
- Increased carbon sequestration would remove
more CO2 from the atmosphere.
Negative feedback that lessens climate change

- Whereas carbon losses through forest disturbances

would result in more CO2 entering the atmosphere
Positive feedback that strengthens climate
change
 Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments:

the most sophisticated

experimental approach to
date for studying the effects
of elevated CO2 on
vegetation

Aerial View of
Free-Air CO2
Enrichment rings at
Duke Forest,
Durham, N.C.
USA

Duke University
Photo by Will Owens. Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/pub/2702.php
Increased temperatures could increase fire risk in areas
that become drier due to climate change (IPCC, 2001).

Climate change could also promote the rapid increase of

diseases and pests that attack tree species (Shugart,
et al., 2003).

Changes in forest disturbance regimes, such as fire or

disease, could also affect the future of word forests
and the market for forest products, such as timber.
 „More Large Forest Fires
Linked To Climate Change“
Science Daily (Jul. 10, 2006) — Large
forest fires have occurred more
frequently in the western United States
since the mid-1980s as spring
temperatures increased, mountain
snows melted earlier and summers got
hotter, according to new research.

Trees killed by the Aspen Fire, a

large and severe forest fire that
occurred in the summer of 2003 in
the Santa Catalina Mountains near
Tucson, Ariz.

(Photo credit: Thomas W. Swetnam). Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/07/060710084004.htm

Health and Environmental Effects

4) Ecosystems and Biodiversity

 Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Ecosystem is an interdependent, functioning system of

plants, animals and microorganisms.
- can be as large as the Mojave Desert, or as small as a
local pond.
Without the support of the other organisms within their
own ecosystem, life forms would not survive, much less
thrive – should be in balance with each other and with
the environment around.
Climate is an integral part of ecosystems and organisms
have adapted to their regional climate over time.
Climate change is a factor that has the potential to alter
ecosystems and the many resources and services
they provide to each other and to society.
Many animals already may be responding to local climatic
changes - climatically associated shifts have been noted on
many continents and within each major taxonomic group of
animals (IPCC, 2001)
The types of changes already observed include:
•shift to higher elevations and towards to poles,
•changes in animal abundance-population numbers,
•changes in body size,
•shifts in the timing of events (earlier breading in spring).
These changes can cause adverse or beneficial effects on
species.
For example: Climate change could benefit certain plant or insect
species by increasing their ranges. The resulting impacts,
however, could be positive or negative depending on whether
these species were invasive (e.g., weeds or mosquitoes) or if they
were valuable to humans (e.g., food crops or pollinating insects).
 According to IPPC, overall biodiversity is forecast to
decrease in the future as a result of a multitude of
pressures, particularly:
• increased land-use intensity,
• associated destruction of natural or semi-natural habitats
(habit fragmentation, introduction of exotic species ).

The risk of extinction could increase for many species,

especially those that are already endangered or at risk
due to isolation by geography or human development,
low population numbers, or a narrow temperature
tolerance range - but it is difficult to do in future
projections because of the complexities involved in
human/nature interactions.
Health and Environmental Effects

5) Water Resources
Increasing global surface temperatures are very likely to lead
to changes in precipitation and atmospheric water vapor
(GHG), because of changes in atmospheric circulation, a
more active hydrological cycle.

The future effects of climate change on water resources in

the world will depend on trends in both climatic and non-
climatic factors (increased demand for water caused by
population growth, development of new technologies,
changes in water management decisions, ect.).
Water availability, quality and streamflow are sensitive to
changes in temperature and precipitation.
It is difficult to predict future changes in regional precipitation
patterns - increase in energy in the hydrologic cycle does not
necessarily translate into an increase in precipitation in all
geographic regions.
•changes in temperature,
Water
•changes in precipitation patterns can have impacts on
availability
•changes in snowmelt

Temperature is predicted to rise in most areas, but is generally

expected to increase more in inland areas and at higher
latitudes.
Higher temperatures will increase loss of water through
evaporation. The net impact on water supplies will depend on
changes in precipitation (including changes in the total amount,
form, and seasonal timing of precipitation).
In areas where precipitation increases sufficiently, net water
supplies may not be affected or they may increase.
In other areas where precipitation remains the same or
decreases, net water supplies would decrease.
Where water supplies decrease, users of water such as
irrigated agriculture, municipals, industries, hydropower,
recreation, navigation could be directly affected.

Glaciers are expected to continue retreating, and many small

glaciers may disappear entirely.
Peak streamflow may move from late spring to early spring/late
winter.
Changes in streamflow have important implications for: water
management, flood management, irrigation, planning.
•Higher water temperatures
•Changes in timing, intensity duration can affect Water
of precipitation Quality

Flood magnitudes and frequencies are expected to increase

overall (IPCC, 2001). Flooding can affect water quality, as
large volumes of water can transport contaminants into water
bodies.
Sea level rise may also affect freshwater quality by
increasing the salinity of coastal rivers and bays and causing
saltwater intrusion, movement of saline water into fresh
ground water resources in coastal regions.
Changes in water quality could have implications for all
types of uses.
Higher temperatures reduce dissolved oxygen levels, which
can have an effect on aquatic life.
Health and Environmental Effects

6) Energy Production and Use

 Health and Environmental Effects – Energy Production and Use

Energy production and use are sensitive to changes

in the climate.
Energy production:
Hydropower generation is the energy source that is likely
to be most directly affected by climate change because it is
sensitive to: the amount, timing and geographical pattern
of precipitation and temperature (IPCC, 2001).
Changes in precipitation are difficult to project at the
regional scale, which means that climate change will affect
hydropower either positively or negatively, depending on
the region.
Other renewable sources of energy could be affected by
climate change, although these changes are very difficult
to predict.

If climate change leads to increased cloudiness, solar

energy production could be reduced.
Wind energy production would be reduced if wind
speeds increase above or fall below the acceptable
operating range of the technology.
Changes in growing conditions could affect biomass
production (IPCC, 2001).
 Infrastructure for energy production, transmission and
distribution could be affected by climate change.

Power plant operations can be affected by extreme heat

waves.
For example, intake water that is normally used to cool
power plants become warm enough during extreme heat
events that it compromises power plant operations.

If a warmer climate is characterized by more extreme

weather events such as windstorms, ice storms, floods,
tornadoes and hail, the transmission systems of electric
utilities may experience a higher rate of failure with
attendant costs (IPCC, 2001).
 Damage to an electric high-power
transmission tower in Natchitoches
Parish. These are made of
galvanized steel and require a
substantial tornado to twist them to
failure.

People look at a series of Hydro-Quebec high

voltage towers near St-Bruno, Quebec,
Canada, south of Montreal, that collapsed after
a severe ice storm hit southwest Quebec. The
storm left more than 1.4 million households out
of electricity.

Ice rain in Russian 2010:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJ2XNhuomBc&feature=related
Photo credit: Jacques Boissinot/CP PHOTO.
Source http://www.energyquest.ca.gov http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9Kfq1wNqd4&feature=related
Energy Use:
For example, increasing temperatures will reduce
consumption of energy for heating but increase energy
used for cooling buildings.
There may also be changes in energy consumed for other
climate-sensitive processes, such as pumping water for
irrigation in agriculture.

Depending on the magnitude of these possible energy

consumption changes, it may be necessary to consider
changes in energy supply or conservation practices to
balance demand.
The net effects of these changes on energy production,
use and utility bills, will vary by region and by season.

Climate change effects on energy supply and demand

will depend not only on climatic factors, but also on
patterns of: economic growth, land use, population
growth and distribution, technological change, social and
cultural trends that shape individual and institutional
actions.
Health and Environmental Effects

7) Coastal Zones
 Health and Environmental Effects – Coastal Zones

Coastal zones are particularly vulnerable to climate

variability and change.
Key concerns include:
• sea level rise,
• land loss,
• changes in maritime storms and flooding,
• implications for water resources.

Sea level is rising along most of the world coast. In the last
century, sea level rose 127 to 152 mm more than the
global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.
The IPCC found significant uncertainty in the analysis of
20th century sea level change. Also, there is little
knowledge about the regional pattern of sea level
change.
Coastal marshes and swamps are particularly vulnerable to
rising sea level because they are generally within a few
meter of sea level (IPCC, 2001).
Wetlands
• provide habitat for many species,
• play a key role in nutrient uptake,
• serve as the basis for many communities’ economic
livelihoods,
• provide recreational opportunities,
• protect local areas from flooding.
As the sea rises, the outer boundary of these wetlands will
erode, and new wetlands will form inland as previously dry
areas are flooded by the higher water levels. The amount of
newly created wetlands, could be much smaller than the lost
area of wetlands - especially in developed areas protected
with: bulkheads, dikes, structures that keep new wetlands from
forming inland.
The IPCC suggests that during the next century: sea level rise
could convert as much as 22% of the world’s coastal wetlands to
open water (IPCC, 2001).
Sea level rise also increases coastal flooding from
rainstorms, because low areas drain more slowly as sea
level rises.
Shore erosion also increases vulnerability to storms, by
removing the beaches and dunes that would otherwise
protect coastal property from storm waves (FEMA 2000).

An increase in the intensity of tropical storms would

increase flood and wind damages.

Rising sea level in costal zones increases the salinity

of both surface water and ground water through salt water
intrusion – can be harmful for human, aquatic plants,
animals.
 Costal Zones - Warming Winds, Rising Tides: Bangladesh.
Braasch Photography

Asia's largest rivers, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra, join in the
world's most extensive delta and flow into the Bay of Bengal.
There lies Bangladesh, a nation of 140 million people beset by
poverty and the floods of the rivers, and now also affected by
rising sea level. Gary Braasch visited to document this threat,
traveling by boat south from Dhaka and speaking to villagers,
fishermen, and scientists. Already a million people a year are
displaced by loss of land along rivers, and indications are this is
increasing. Villagers spoke of losing a town mosque to
unexpectedly fast erosion, even in a time of good weather in the
dryer season. The one meter sea level rise generally predicted if
no action is taken about global warming will inundate more than
15 percent of Bangladesh, displacing more than 13 million people
and cut into the crucial rice crop. Intruding water will damage the
Sundarbans mangrove forest, a world heritage site.
 Bangladesh erosion along
river cuts a town in the
middle, an increasing threat
from global warming.

More information about Braasch Photography is at http://www.braaschphotography.com

Bangladeshis point to
where the town
mosque stood just
two months ago, as
increasing river
erosion is eating away
at their town south of
Dhaka.
 Fast eroding
eastern edge of
Bhola Island,
Bangladesh.
 Bangladesh, M. A.
Mohit at his family
village, Bhola Island,
where
6-7 km of the town
has eroded away.
 Costal Zones - Warming Winds, Rising Tides: Tuvalu.
Braasch Photography
The 12.000 Tuvaluans live on nine coral atolls totaling 2.590
hectare scattered over 129.500 hectare of ocean south of the
equator and west of the International Dateline. Tuvalu is the
smallest of all nations, except for the Vatican. Tuvalu has no
industry, burns little petroleum, and creates less carbon
pollution than a small town in America. This tiny place
nevertheless is on the front line of climate change. The
increasing intensity of tropical weather, the increase in ocean
temperatures, and rising sea level -- all documented results of
a warming atmosphere -- are making trouble for Tuvalu.
Tuvaluans face the possibility of being among the first climate
refugees, although they never use that term. Former assistant
Environmental minister and now assistant secretary for Foreign
Affairs Paani Laupepa said he felt threatened "Our whole
culture will have to be transplanted."
Health and Environmental Effects

8) Polar Regions
 Health and Environmental Effects – Polar regions

Polar regions include:

• Arctic in the Northern Hemisphere
• Antarctica in the Southern Hemisphere

The Arctic encompasses a By contrast, Antarctica is an

large, mostly frozen ocean ice-covered continent
surrounded by land, is home to surrounded by ocean and is
almost four million people generally uninhabited
(ACIA, 2004), and includes
some or all of the territories of
eight nations.

There is evidence that climate change is already having

observable impacts in the Arctic and in Antarctica.
 Polar regions are expected to experience the
greatest rates of warming compared to other world
regions (IPCC, 2001).
In part, this is because ice has greater reflectivity (also
known as albedo) than ocean or land.
Melting of highly reflective snow and ice reveals darker
land and ocean surfaces, increasing absorption of the
sun's heat and further warming the planet, especially in
those regions.
Arctic
In 2004 the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) was
released - this report was produced by an international team
of scientists at the request of the Arctic Council (establishe in
1996 by Ottava Declaration) = high level intergovermental
forum to provide a means for promoting cooperation,
coordination and interaction (sustainable development and
environmental protection) among 8 Arctic States: Canada,
Denmark (representing Greenland), Finland, Iceland,
Norway, Russia, Sweden, USA.
Chairmanship of the Council rotates every two years among
the 8 national members (from 2011 Sweden).
Six Arctic indigenous communities have the status of
Permanent Participants on the Council. Communities are
represented by Aleut International Association, Arctic
Athabaskan Council, Gwich'in Council International, Inuit
Circumpolar Conference, Russian Association of Indigenous
Peoples of the North, and the Saami Council.
The ACIA concluded the following:
Effects on the Climate System
• Average temperatures in the Arctic have risen at almost
twice the rate as temperatures in the rest of the world
over the past few decades.
• Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising
permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of
strong Arctic warming.
• The above trends are expected to continue during this
century, resulting from ongoing increases in atmospheric
concentrations of GHG (though GHG do not primarily
originate from the Arctic).
• Melting of Arctic glaciers is a contributing factor to sea-level
rise around the world.
• Warming is very likely to alter the release and uptake of
GHG from soils, vegetation, and coastal oceans.
The ACIA concluded the following:
Effects on the Climate Biological and Human Systems
•Increased areas of tree growth in the Arctic could serve to
take up CO2 and supply more wood products and related
employment, providing local and global benefits. However,
tree growth would mean absorption of additional sunlight
(land surface would become darker and less reflective) and
add to regional warming.
• Reduction in sea ice is very likely to have devastating
consequences for polar bears, ice-dependent seals, and
local people for whom these animals are a primary food
source.
•Arctic impacts will have implications for biodiversity around
the world because migratory species depend on breeding
and feeding grounds in the Arctic.
The ACIA concluded the following:
Effects on Biological and Human Systems
•Reduced sea ice is likely to increase marine access to the
region’s resources, expanding opportunities for shipping and
possibly for offshore oil extraction (although operations could
be hampered initially by increasing movement of sea ice in
some areas).
•As frozen ground thaws, many existing buildings, roads,
pipelines, airports, and industrial facilities are likely to be
destabilized.
•Climate change is taking place within the context of many
other ongoing changes in the Arctic, including observed
increases in chemical contaminants entering the Arctic from
other regions, overfishing, land use changes that result in
habitat destruction and fragmentation, rapid growth in the
human population, and cultural, governance and economic
changes.
Satellites and U.S. and British Navy submarines have
provided data on retreating Arctic sea ice and decreasing
Arctic ice thickness.
Satellite data show that the extent of Arctic sea ice has
decreased by about 3% per decade.
Sonar data from U.S. Navy submarines between 1957 and
2000 show that average ice thickness has decreased by
42% from 3,1 meters to 1,8 meters.

See ice minimum recorded in the Nasa's satellite

record in year 1979 and 2005. On Sept. 21, 2005,
sea ice extent dropped to 5 million km2. Source: IPCC, 2001
Source: NASA.
Antartica

Like the Arctic in the Northern Hemisphere, Antarctica in the

Southern Hemisphere has been experiencing effects attributable
to changes in regional climate.
Future changes resulting from global climate change are also
expected to be significant in this region of the world.
Over the past half-century, there has been a marked warming
trend in the Antarctic Peninsula. According to NASA's Goddard
Institute of Space Studies, much of the rest of Antarctica has
cooled during the last 30 years resulting from ozone depletion
and other factors, but that this trend is likely to reverse.
Surface waters of the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica
have warmed and become less saline, and precipitation in this
region has increased (IPCC, 2001).
The loss of Antarctica ice shelves has few direct impacts on sea
level and global climate.
Because the ice shelves were floating, their melting does not
directly add to sea level rise.
They usually are replaced by sea-ice cover, so overall albedo
(reflectivity) changes very little (IPCC, 2001).

As climate change continues, most of the land-based Antarctic

ice sheet is likely to actually thicken as a result of increased
precipitation.
There is a small risk, however, that the West Antarctic ice sheet
will retreat in coming centuries.
This is because the West Antarctic ice sheet is moored in an
oceanic basin, where slippery mud covers the basin floor.
This unique setting makes the ice sheet potentially unstable.
 Health and Environmental Effects

Source: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/abrupt.html

9) Extreme Events and Abrupt Climate

Change
 Health and Environmental Effects – Extreme Events

Climate is defined not simply as average temperature and

precipitation but also by the type, frequency and
intensity of weather events.

Human-induced climate change has the potential to alter

the prevalence and severity of extremes such as:
• heat waves,
• cold waves,
• storms,
• floods and
• droughts.
Although global climate models have improved over time,
they still have limitations that affect the simulation of
extreme events – is difficult to predict them.
Abrupt climate change has a specific definition and
should not be confused with climate changes that occur
slowly or individual extreme events that affect relatively
small areas.
Abrupt climate change refers to sudden, large changes
in some major component of the climate system, with
rapid, widespread effects.
Abrupt climate changes occur when a threshold in the
climate system is crossed – a trigger that causes the climate
to rapidly shift from one state to a new, different one.
Examples of these triggers include: changes in the Earth’s
orbit, a brightening or dimming of the sun, strengthening
or weakening of ocean currents, melting or surging ice
sheets, emissions of climate-altering gases and particles
into the atmosphere
Scientific data shows that abrupt changes in the climate have
occurred throughout history and are characteristic of the Earth’s
climate system.
The changes are of concern because, if triggered, they could
occur so quickly and unexpectedly that human or natural
systems would have difficulty adapting to them.
Our state of knowledge is not yet sufficient to predict the timing
of the future abrupt climate changes or pinpoint their effects.
However, the National Academies of Sciences did conclude:
…greenhouse warming and other human alterations of the
Earth system may increase the possibility of large, abrupt,
and unwelcome regional or global climatic events. The
abrupt changes of the past are not fully explained yet, and
climate models typically underestimate the size, speed, and
extent of those changes. Hence, future abrupt changes
cannot be predicted with confidence, and climate surprises
are to be expected.
Thank you!!!
Source: Photographers' Perspectives on Global Warming, October 14 - November 6, 2005. was shown at JW Gallery, Brooklyn.NASA Sees Rapid Changes in Arctic Sea Ice