Beyond Sectarianism:

the New Middle East

Cold War
F. Gregory Gause III
 Contents

About the author The article Conclusions and update Questions

Main ideas
Specifications
Iran & Saudi Arabia
US policy advice
 The Author

Brookings Doha Center Texas A&M University Focus on Arabian

Peninsula
 The Saudi/Iranian Cold War

Struggle over direction of ME politics Domestic conflicts – transnational

• Not all ME conflicts affinities – regional ambitions
• Patronage

Similar to previous Arab Cold War Complicated sectarian element

• Gamal Abd al-Nasir
• Solidification of Arab States + decline of Weak state = battlefield for cold
Arab Nationalism war
 • Sunni vs Shia
• Tool by Iran and Saudi Arabia
• Both crossed the line
Sectarian • Distorts analytical focus
• Orientalist perspective?
Framework • Oversimplification
• Many actors outside Shia/Sunni divide
(Kurds, Christians, Alawis…)
• Motivations for Cold War
 • State: monopoly over the use of legitimate violence
within its borders
• Political loyalties and state-society relations
• Internally ≠ Externally
• More weak states = more serious cold war
Domestic • 2003 US invasion of Iraq  reversal of Arab state
strengthening period  beginning of new Cold War
Bases: Iraq and • Weakening of Iraq & Syrian civil war  more
Syria importance to sectarian alliances
• Sectarian groups become the main source of protection
and services when the state collapses
• Bottom-up dynamic
• Non-state parties invite external powers in for their
domestic power struggle
 Rivalry for Power
Iran: leading influence
• Old influence
• Alliance with Ba’athist Syria
• 1980s-2000s: stronger states  normal
diplomacy
• 2003: new vacuums + 2005: ambitious
leader
• 2000s: leading in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq
• Lebanon: support Hezbollah
• Syria: support regime
• Iraq: support Maliki
• Yemen
• Very little support to Houthi movement
• Arab Spring: fall of Egyptian & Tunisian
regimes = victory
• Syria: regime
Saudi Arabia
• Late 2000s: enters the game (reluctantly)
• Lebanon
• Support al-Hariri
• Iraq
• Support Iraqiya; Maliki wins
• Palestine
• Support Fatah/Palestinian Authority
• Yemen
• Disproportionate reaction to rise of
Houthi movement; victory = publicity
• Arab spring: troops to Bahrein; setback
• Syria: all-in for the Islamist rebels by 2012
 • Conflict over proper political role of Sunni Islam
• Multilateral situation: distrust among Sunnis
• Saudi Arabia and UAE vs Muslim
Brotherhood/Ennahda
• Don’t like the democracy + Islamist politics mix
Intra-Sunni • Qatar pro Muslim Brotherhood

Cold War • Saudi Arabia + Bahrain + UAE vs Qatar

• Saudi: good and bad Salafi groups (al-Qaeda
main enemy)
• Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE support el-Sisi
coup
• Saudi Arabia + Turkey = difficult match
 • Centrality of non-state actors
• Allies and clients; own agendas; deeply
imbedded in their own contexts
• Key to success in Cold War: support non-state
actors in their country
• Effective patronage: transnational
connections more important than military
Patronage
Examples
• Israel: no natural allies  insignificant role
• Turkey: mess in Syria + domestic demonstrations
• Qatar: money and Al Jazeera  oversized
influence
 • Inconsistent policies (?)
• Top priorities
• Nuclear deal with Iran to contain it
• Avoid resurgence of al-Qaeda
• Long-term challenge: build stable states. How?

Role of the • How to safeguard US’ interest

• Do not get militarily involved  rely on
United States regional balance of power
• Support/work towards stable governments
(stable ≠ democratic)
• Work towards improvement of Saudi-Iranian
relationship
• Get the EU in
• Secure oil production and flows
 Updates

• Cold War still ongoing

• No clear winner in Syria
• US:
• Got involved militarily
• Repealed Iranian nuclear deal
• Closer ties with Israel?
• Turkey in Syria: new comeback?
• Yemeni situation?
 Canvas Question
To what extent was the regional Cold War
due to political upheavals and religious
fundamentalists?