Youth Matters: The Demographics of Youth Around the World

Carl Haub
Senior Demographer, Population Reference Bureau
Center for International Media Assistance
May 28, 2009
 Who Are Youth?

• The United Nations defines “youth” as those ages 15-24, a definition first
derived during the International Youth Year in 1985. “Children” are those below
the age of 15. All UN youth statistics are shown for age 15-24.

• The UN also allows for children to be those up to the age of 18 so that they
might be covered under the UN’s Convention on the Rights of the Child.

• Many individual countries limit youth to those below the age of majority
(treated as an adult under the law), frequently age 18.

• A major 2005 National Research Council study defined youth as ages 10-24.

• The UN also distinguishes between teenagers (13 - 19) and “young adults” (20-
24).

• Because ready access to age data in many developing countries is in five year
age groups, analysis using many specialized age groups can be difficult.
 Projected World Youth Population, Ages 15–24, 1950 - 2050
Billions
1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6 More developed regions

Less developed regions

0.4

0.2

0.0

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision
 Projected World Youth Population, Ages 15–24, by Region, 1950 - 2050
Billions
0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

Africa
0.4 Asia
Lat. Amer./Carib.
0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0
50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision
 The “Youth Bulge” and the “Demographic Dividend”

• The youth bulge is a somewhat vague concept, used with varying definitions
or, at times, with no clear definition at all.

• It may simply mean a large number of youth with the colorful term “bulge” only
serving to confound the issue.

• The bulge may be defined as those ages 15–24 or 15–29 as a percentage of the
adult population, which may be adults age 30 or above or adults in the prime
working ages 30 and above.

• The demographic dividend is related to the bulge in that it is usually described

in terms of a larger group in the working ages (especially the younger working
ages) relative to those ages 0-14.

• For that to happen, it is necessary that fertility decline to rather low levels so
that the 0-4 age group is smaller than 5-9 for the first time. That has only begun
to happen in some developing countries and is quite distant in most.
 Graphing the Youth Bulge, Population 15–29 As a Percent of 30+
Is a Large Number in the Young Working Age a Benefit by Itself?
Percent
140

120

100

Thailand
80
Uganda

60

40

20

50 55 960 965 970 975 980 985 990 995 000 005 010 015 020 025 030 035 040 045 050
19 19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision
 Nandan Nilekani on the Demographic Dividend

Yes, in fact, I think the big change in India is that over the last 40
years we've gone from seeing a population as a burden to population
as human capital. And the demographic dividend in particular arises
because population growth rates have slowed down. And so we have
a huge hump of people in the working age of 15-65, which is typically
when economies grow very rapidly.

---- Nandan Nilekani, co-founder of Infosys

Marketplace, April 2, 2009
 Population Pyramid, India, 2006 – Demographic Dividend?

Age

80+

75-79

70-74
Males Females
65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15 - 19

10 - 14

5-9

0-4

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Percent of total population

Population Reference Bureau projections, based on 2001 Census of India

 Population Pyramid, Thailand, 2005 – Perhaps This Is the
Demographic Dividend
Age

75+

70-74

65-69
Males Females
60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15 - 19

10 - 14

5-9

0-4

3 2 1 0 1 2 3
Percent of total population

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision
 The “Demographic Divide”
The Example of Nigeria and Japan

Nigeria Japan
Population 2008 (millions) 148 128
Population 2050 282 95
Lifetime Births per Woman 5.9 1.3
Annual Number of Births 6,300,000 1,100,000
Percent of Population Below Age 15 45 13
Population Below Age 15 66,000,000 17,000,000
Population Ages 15-24 30,000,000 13,000,000
Percent of Population Age 65+ 3 21
Life Expectancy at Birth 47 82
Annual Number of Infant Deaths 630,000 2,900
2008 World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau
 Population Under Age 15 (Percent)
Around 1980 and 2008

ca. 1980 ca. 2008

Western Africa 46 44
Middle Africa 43 46
Eastern Africa 46 44
Northern Africa 44 33
Southern Africa 42 33

India 41 32
China 32 19

1980 and 2008 World Population Data Sheets of the Population Reference Bureau
 The Total Fertility Rate

The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children a

woman would have in her lifetime if the rate of childbearing of a given
year were to remain constant.

An example from Nigeria:

Age of mother Births per 1,000 women

15-19 122
20-24 224
25-29 265
30-34 242
35-39 161
40-44 88
45-49 42
Sum (TFR) times five 5720

2008 Demographic and Health Survey of Nigeria, preliminary report

 Total Fertility Rate, Five African Countries, 1970, 2000/2003 and 2006/2008

Lifetime children per woman

7.4
7.1
6.9 6.9
6.6 6.7
6.2
5.9 6.0
5.7 5.7

4.4
4.0

3.2 3.1

Nigeria Zambia Ghana Uganda Egypt

1970 2000/2003 2006/2008

United Nations Population Division, Demographic and Health Surveys

Total Fertility Rate, Five Asian Countries, 1970, 2000/2003 and 2006/2008

Lifetime children per woman

7.9

6.3

5.5 5.4

4.5

3.7 3.6
3.5
3.2 3.3
2.9
2.6 2.6

1.3 1.2

India Indonesia Philippines South Korea Jordan

1970 2000/2003 2006/2008

United Nations Population Division, Demographic and Health Surveys, Population Reference Bureau estimates
 Total Fertility Rate, Five Latin American Countries, 1970, 2000/2003 and 2006/2008

Lifetime children per woman

6.5
6.3 6.3
5.8
5.6

4.7
4.4 4.4
4.0
3.8
3.5

2.9
2.6 2.6
2.4

Guatemala Bolivia Haiti Peru Colombia

1970 2000/2003 2006/2008

United Nations Population Division, Demographic and Health Surveys, Population Reference Bureau estimates
 Total Fertility Rate in Pakistan, by Wealth Quintile, 2006-2007

Lowest 5.8

Second 4.5

Middle 4.1

Fourth 3.4

Highest 3.0

2006-2007 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey

 Female Secondary School Enrollment as a Percentage of Boys'
1990 and 2000/2004
111
107
100
92
85
81 81
73 72
63
60
52
45
41

Africa Latin America Asia Ghana Benin Bangladesh India

1990 2000/2004

Population Reference Bureau, World’s Youth Data Sheet, 2006

 Percent Enrolled in Seconday School, Male/Female, 2000/2004

107
100

64
59 58
50
47 45 47
40 38 38
34

17

Africa Latin America Asia Ghana Benin Bangladesh India

Male Female

Population Reference Bureau, World’s Youth Data Sheet, 2006