CRIME DATA

Qualitative v Quantitative Research

■ We've seen a lot of qualitative research already, including ethnographic work and in-
depth interviews.
■ Qualitative research is often interested in reaching theoretical saturation.
– This means you conduct your research until you're not finding anything new
■ Quantitative research aims to test hypotheses or describe general trends through
quantifications of key variables of interest.
■ Quantitative approaches include anything (pretty much) that makes use of statistical
inference. Surveys, official data, some kinds of content analysis, etc.
■ The methodology should generally reflect the research question(s) that is of interest.
Main Crime Data Sources in US

■ Uniform Crime Reports (FBI)

– NIBRS (National Incident-Based Reporting
System; also maintained by FBI as part of
UCR)
■ NCVS (National Crime Victimization Survey)
■ Self-Report Surveys
Uniform Crime Report Data
■ Police departments throughout the country voluntarily send lots and lots of crime
info to the FBI each year
■ Departments can be in cities, towns, counties, tribes, colleges, and the like, and
about 18,000 departments participate in the program in total
■ The UC Reports are technically the four publications that the FBI puts together
every year, and these reports cover particular topics like general crime trends in
the US and the number of law enforcement officers killed or assaulted
■ Reported crime incidents are "known" to law enforcement. This could be
contrasted with data that reports just the number of arrests or just the number of
convictions. These crime incidents include juveniles.
■ The FBI distinguishes between violent crimes and property crimes, and within
these distinctions the agency aims to maintain standardized definitions over
time. (The definition for rape, however, changed relatively recently.)
UCR Data

■ The major limitation of UCR data is the "hierarchy rule"

■ This means that when it comes to tallying up how many crimes have been
committed, the UCR only records the most serious crime for a given criminal incident
■ For example, if a person robbed a convenience store and also shot and killed the
store's clerk, then only the murder would be included in the data
NIBRS
■ NIBRS is a part of one of the yearly reports issued under UCR
■ Unlike the UCR's Summary Reporting System, NIBRS contains much
more detail about criminal incidents, covers more criminal categories,
avoids the hierarchy rule, and occasionally defines crimes differently,
such as sex crimes.
■ There is far less participation in NIBRS than in the UCR's broader
reporting program, although participation is increasing
■ The data are very rich, but they can be difficult to access
NCVS
■ Instead of looking at offenses known to the police, the NCVS is a representative
survey of US households that asks individuals about their victimization experiences.
■ When a household is selected to be in the sample, everyone aged 12 and older is
interviewed about his/her victimization experiences during the past six months.
Crimes that are covered include rape, larceny, having a car stolen, robbery, and
assault.
■ What makes the NCVS data even more useful for researchers is that it contains lots
of demographic information about the victim and the offender.
■ When it comes to counting the number of crimes that have occurred, the NCVS
considers each victimization. This means that the number of victimizations is not
the same as the number of victims. Individuals are often victimized multiple times in
a specific period.
Self-Report Surveys

■ Monitoring the Future

– Collected for different kids every year since 1975 (8th, 10th, 12th grade and
thousands of kids)
■ National Longitudinal Survey of Youth
– Began in 1997, included about 9,000 kids between 12 and 16 years-old and
includes info on work, school, and delinquency
■ The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health)
– Started in 1994-95 studying students in grades 7-12. There have been five
waves since then. Almost 100,000 children initially studied
Limitations of the Data
■ Biggest limitation of UCR is the hierarchy rule
■ Biggest limitation of NIBRS is the limited number of participating places
■ For "official" law enforcement measures of crime, the dark figure of crime is
a major concern: this is the difference between crimes that come to the
attention of police and crimes that actually occur
■ For victimization surveys, reliability and validity are concerns
■ Self-Reports have many limitations, including:
– Reliability/Validity concerns
– Selection Effects
– Measurement error due to sampling strategy
Tyranny of Small Numbers

■ When one talks about percentage increases or decreases over time, one can
present a misleading story when making comparisons across groups.
■ Percentage increases or decreases may be misleading if the size of groups to begin
with is not considered. This is important as media publications may overexaggerate
criminal activity by focusing on percentage changes.
■ Example:
■ If a city had one homicide two years ago and last year it had three homicides, then it
would be factually accurate to say that homicide increased by 200%, but it's a very
misleading thing to say because homicide incidence was so low to begin with
Clearance Rates

■ Definition: the rate at which crimes of a certain type are "closed" due to arrest or
some other means. Often converted to a percentage.
– Side Note: Usually under 5% of homicides are committed by juveniles
■ Homicide clearance rates: Probably lower than you think (higher is better). National
average is about 60%, and continues to decline. Examples:
– Chicago: About 25%
– Memphis: About 38%
– Detroit: About 15%
■ Which crime has the lowest clearance rates? Motor vehicle theft. Often between 10
and 15%