Basics of Performability Modeling

Modeling (Concepts, Process)

Definitions

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 Quotes about Modeling &
Prediction
“All Models are Wrong; Some Models are Useful”
George Box http://www.engr.wisc.edu/ie/faculty/box_george.html

“Prediction is fine as long as it is not about the

future” Mark Twain

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Modeling Steps (Trivedi’s view)

• Model construction
• Model parameterization
• Model solution
• Result interpretation
• Model Validation

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 Modeling Process (my view)
•Understand the problem
•Set up modeling goals
•Select metrics
•Choose a systematic approach
•Determine parameters values Present modeling
results to the
•Select evaluation technique customers
•Determine the level of detail
•Gather/collect data
•Construct models
•Model validation
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 Modeling & Justification
•assumptions
modeling •abstraction

Reality Modeling
results

justification

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 Rule #1: Have a good understanding of the
overall picture

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 Check List
•Is the problem clearly understood?
•Is the analysis goal unbiased?
•Are correct and appropriate metrics being used?
•Is a systematic approach applied in the overall analysis?
•Is appropriate evaluation technique picked?
•Are all the important parameters considered?
•Are those assumptions unrealistic?
•Is the level of detail being modeled appropriate?
•Is representative data being used?
•Does the results make sense?

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 Common Traps

* Assuming no change in the future

* Omitting/forgetting assumptions and
limitations
* Ignoring the disparity in viewpoint

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 Definitions

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 MEASURES TO BE
EVALUATED
 Dependability
– Reliability
– Availability
– Downtime

“Does it work, and for how long?''

 Performance
– Throughput, Response Time, etc.

“Given that it works, how well does it work?''

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 Dependability– Umbrella term
Trustworthiness of a computer system such that reliance can justifiably be
placed on the service it delivers
RELIABILITY
AVAILABILITY
SAFETY SECURITY
ATTRIBUTES
CONFIDENTIALITY
INTEGRITY
MAINTAINABILITY

FAULT PREVENTION
FAULT REMOVAL
DEPENDABILITY MEANS
FAULT TOLERANCE
FAULT FORECASTING

FAULTS
THREATS ERRORS
FAILURES
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 Definition of Reliability
Recommendations E.800 of the International
Telecommunications Union (ITU-T) defines reliability as
follows:
“The ability of an item to perform a required function
under given conditions for a given time interval.”
In this definition, an item may be a circuit board, a
component on a circuit board, a module consisting of several
circuit boards, a base transceiver station with several
modules, a fiber-optic transport-system, or a mobile switching
center (MSC) and all its subtending network elements. The
definition includes systems with software.
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 Reliability Def.
 The reliability of a component or system is
its ability to function correctly over a
specific period of time
 From a mathematical point of view, the
reliability R(t) of a system S can be
expressed as:
R(t) = Pr(S is fully operational in [0,t))

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 Reliability Def. (Math viewpoint)
 Let X be the random variable representing the
lifetime or time to failure of a system
 Let F be the distribution function (CDF) of X
 The system reliability at time t is
R(t) = Pr(X>t) = 1-F(t)
 For exponential distributed X, what is F(t)?
And What is R(t)?
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Exponential Distributed System’s
R(t) with different failure rates
0.1 0.05 0.01

1.2

0.8
R(t)

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
Time step
1

5
9
13
17
21

25
29
33

37
41
45

49
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 Failure rate as a function of time
Failure rate

time

•Bathtub Curve
•Most likely applied to hardware modules

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 Definition of Availability
Availability is closely related to reliability, and is also defined
in ITU-T Recommendation E.800 as follows
"The ability of an item to be in a state to perform a
required function at a given instant of time or at any
instant of time within a given time interval, assuming
that the external resources, if required, are provided."
An important difference between reliability and availability is
that reliability refers to failure-free operation during an
interval, while availability refers to failure-free operation at a
given instant of time.

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 Availability
 Instantaneous (point, transient) availability
– A(t)
– The probability that system is working at the
instant t, regardless of the number of times it
may have failed and been repaired in the
interval [0,t).
 Steady-state availability
– Ass
– For a typical repairable system, the availability
tends towards a constant limiting value,
referred to as the steady-state availability.
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 A Simple Way of Calculating
Steady State Availability

Ass =

For exponential distribution, MTBF = 1/, MTTR= 1/

Then Ass =

Difference between MTBF and MTTF

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 MTTF and MTBF
 They are often used interchangeably,
however, they have different meanings
 MTTF: The mean time until the first failure
 MTBF: The mean time between failures
(imply that the system is repairable)

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 The Need of Performability
Modeling
 New technologies, services & standards need new
modeling methodologies

 Pure performance modeling: too optimistic!

Outage-and-recovery behavior not considered
 Pure dependability modeling: too conservative!
Different levels of performance not considered

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 “ilities” besides performance

for a specified Reliability

operational time
Performability
measures of the Availability
at any given instant
systems ability to
perform designated
functions Performance under
failures Survivability

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 Performability Measures
 Composite Performance and Dependability

“How much work will be done(lost) in a

given interval including the effects of
failure/repair/contention?''

 Need Techniques and Tools to Evaluate

– Performance, Dependability and Their
Combinations
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 QUANTITATIVE
EVALUATION TAXONOMY
Measurement
Quantitative Simulation
Evaluation
Modeling Closed-form
solution
Analytic
solution
Numerical
solution using
a tool

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 MODELING TAXONOMY
Simulation

Modeling Non-State-Space
Method
Analytic
modeling
State-Space
Method

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 Non-State-Space Modeling
Techniques TAXONOMY
Non-State-Space method

Performance models Dependability models

Queuing models Fault Tree models

Reliability Block Diagram models

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 State Space Modeling Taxonomy
State space models discrete-time Markov chains

Markovian models continuous-time Markov chains

Markov reward models

Semi-Markov process
non-Markovian
models
Markov regenerative process

Non-Homogeneous Markov

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