3 A Prediction Model For Mosquito Density by Bersales and Delas Llagas

A Prediction Model
for Mosquito Density1
Lisa Grace S. Bersales, PhD2 and Lilian A. de las Llagas,PhD3
1 based on a study of the UP School of Statistics Research Foundation and the UP Manila College of Public Health funded
by the DOST-PCHRD
2Professor of Statistics, School of Statistics, University of the Philippines Diliman and National Statistican,Philippine
Statistics Authority
3Professor of Parasitology, Department of Parasitology, College of Public Health, University of the Philippines Manila
13th National Convention on Statistics

October 3-4, 2016, EDSA Shangri-La Hotel, Mandaluyong City
Outline of Presentation
•Motivation for the Study

•Objective
•Framework
•Data Collection
•Model
•Results
•Moving Forward

Motivation for the Study
• Mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) are preventable

public health problems
– Focus for dengue (and zika)
• ages of cases ranged from less than 1 month to 99
years old. (median = 13 years)
• Majority of the cases belong to the 5-14 years age
group (DOH-Epidemiology Bureau, 2015)

 Realities
• Population at risk are school children
• High mosquito-pupil contact in schools
• 3S prevention and control measures (DOH-2015)
• Search & Destroy
• Self-protection measures
• Say yes to fogging when NOT FULLY
there is an impending WORKING
outbreak

• active pest surveillance is not routinely done

• an absence of the true picture of mosquito infestation
levels before, during, and after dengue transmission
months
• a threshold size of the pest mosquito is needed to keep a
stable level of disease transmission as initiating and
maintaining transmission
• cost, logistics, and negative attributes relative to larval
surveillance, limit the practice of doing routine vector
surveillance

• without an active mosquito surveillance, this threshold size

remains unknown and control is a hit and miss thing 
unreliable
• abundance of dengue is closely associated with the vector
abundance and driven by climate, vector control practices,
and human behavior

Against this background,
this research offers a tool to address these
challenges and realities
A Mosquito Density Prediction Model

(mosquito surveillance without conducting field surveillance)

Aim of the Research
• To collect field data as inputs to a statistical model

predicting for estimates of OVITRAP INDEX (OI)
• a sensitive and effective surveillance tool in public
elementary & high schools in the PH; situated in Luzon,
Visayas, and Mindanao mega and provincial cities
• outcome variable: OI
• predictor variables: reinfestation index,
productivity container index, climate,
vector control practices

Research Framework
The ovitrap system and its measurement, the OI, best reflect
and illustrate the interrelationships of the predictor variables
and their response to climate and non-climate influences.

Ecological-biological-socio- OVITRAP INDEX
economic Vector Control Climate
Eschewed containers:
1. Conspecific attraction No. of gravid females RH (%)

attracted to lay eggs on the Temperature
2. Container characteristics
ovitraps; site
3. Location of the container Conspecific attraction
4. Mosquito adult trap (MAT)

No. of surviving females
Adulticiding through one day to RH (%) Temperature
complete the gonotropic
Genetic Control cycle
Source reduction No. of surviving pupae Air and Water Temperature

emerging as adults
Larviciding
Temperature
Source reduction
No. of larvae Interspecies competition
Mosquito larvicidal trap
metamorphosing to adults Larval food
(MLT)
Predators
Household storing, filling Rainfall (inundation)

Eggs laid on the containers
and emptying of containers
indoor/outdoor
practices
By
13th: National
De Las Llagas (2000,
Convention 2002, 2007, 2009, 2013 & 2014)
on Statistics
Significance / Application
To have a readily available and accessible mosquito density,

the OI estimates, without doing field surveillance during and
after dengue high transmission for sustained control efforts.
The model serving as an early warning device to prompt the

communities to do an aggressive mosquito search and
destroy activities because their schools are at risk of having
dengue transmission.

Aim of the Research
• To collect field data as inputs to a statistical model predicting for
estimates of OVITRAP INDEX (OI)
• a sensitive and effective surveillance tool in public
elementary & high schools in the Philippines; situated in
Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao
• outcome variable: OI
• predictor variables: climate, productivity container
index, reinfestation rate and vector control practices

Methodology
1.Selected public elementary and high schools located in 4
climate types in the Philippines
•with reported dengue cases
TYPE 1: QC and Tagaytay
TYPE 2: Sorsogon
TYPE 3: Cebu and Tuguegarao
TYPE 4: Davao
2. Profiled the school containers
3. Set the inclusion criteria

Methodology
4.1 Entomological sampling - weekly from July to 12-15 months
representing the 4 seasons of the year (HD, HW, CW, CD)
4.2 Synoptic- and macro-climate readings
5. Ovitrap surveillance system procedures and activities
6. Data collection and management

JULY2015 – JUNE2016
DATA PER CLIMATE TYPE
Wet months
DRY WET
CLIMATE
MONTHS MONTHS
6 MONTHS 4 MONTHS
TYPE 1 (pronounced) (pronounced)
TYPE 3 6 MONTH 4 MONTHS
12 MONTHS
TYPE 2 (pronounced)
TYPE 4 12 MONTHS
Climate Map delineated based on Modified Coronas Classification (PAGASA)

13th
by De Las National
Llagas, Convention
L.A. on Statistics
(10 February 2016)
The Prediction Model
Fixed Effects Model for Panel Data with interaction effects and
seasonal autoregressive errors
Panel: 21 schools
Period Covered to date for estimating the model: July 2015-

June 2016

The Prediction Model
Dependent variable: Ovitrap Index(OI)
Predictors:
•Productive Container Index

•Reinfestation rate
•Climate Type: Type 1, Type 2, Type 3, Type 4
•Mean Relative Humidity
•Mean Temperature
•Percentage of classrooms with curtains
•Mean number of electric fans in classrooms

The Estimated Prediction Model
Dependent Variable: OI
Method: Panel Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 2016M02 2016M06
Periods included: 5
Cross-sections included: 21
Total panel (balanced) observations: 105
White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f.
corrected)
Convergence achieved after 24 iterations

The Estimated Prediction Model
Predictor Coefficient P-value
Constant 72.21 0.43

Mean Relative Humidity
(MEAN_RH) 2.22 0.01
Mean Temperature
(MEAN_TEMP) 8.26 0.01
Percentage of classrooms with curtains
(CURT) -1.06 0.04
Mean number of fans in classrooms
(FANS) -3.82 0.05
Reinfestation Rate(REINFEST) 6.80 0.00
Productivity Container Index(PCI) -0.10 0.05
MAY -142.76 0.03
MEAN_RH 2.22 0.01
MEAN_TEMP 8.26 0.01
MEAN_RH*TYPE1 -1.94 0.01
MEAN_RH*MAY 1.36 0.00
MEAN_TEMP*TYPE1 -8.53 0.01
MEAN_TEMP*MAY 1.58 0.27
CURT*TYPE1 0.97 0.09

FANS*TYPE1 5.08 0.53
FANS*TYPE2 6.71 0.00
PCI*TYPE2 0.91 0.00
PCI*TYPE3 -0.16 0.06
REINFEST*TYPE1 -9.15 0.00
REINFEST*TYPE2 -19.05 0.00
MAY*PCI 0.05 0.26
MAY*REINFEST -3.23 0.00
AR(1) 0.16 0.19
AR(3) -0.14 0.38
SAR(4) -0.44 0.00

Performance of the Prediction Model
Measures of Fit:
R-squared 85.0%
Adjusted R-squared 71.6%
Inverted AR Roots 0.5 .19-.19i .19+.19i -.19+.19i

Performance of the Prediction Model
Measure of Forecasting Performance:
Within-Sample
Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)= 9.4%

Performance of the Prediction Model:Projections
forecast for OI Percentage

(sch id-yrmonth) OI
Error
1 - 16M02 71.64 74.45635089 -3.9%
1 - 16M03 74.44 69.1187157 7.1%
1 - 16M04 62.83 75.34047389 -19.9%
1 - 16M05 60.41 58.12877922 3.8%
1 - 16M06 63.46 56.58424163 10.8%
MAPE 9.1%

Next Steps
• Data Collection from June 2016 to evaluate

performance of projections>out of sample MAPE
• Geospatial map of predicted ovitrap index

THANK YOU VERY MUCH!

References
De Las Llagas LA. Biology and Control of Aedes Mosquito Vector of Dengue /
Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in the Philippines. UP Manila Journal 1995; 1: 11-18.
De Las Llagas LA. DOH-NCR Dengue Prevention and Control Program: Manual of
Procedures. Metro Manila: Center for Health Development – Metro Manila; 2009.
137 pp.
De Las Llagas LA. Philippine Handbook on Integrated Vector Control Concepts
and Practices. Manila: Department of Health (DOH); 2013. 143 pp.
De Las Llagas LA, Bersales LGS. Application of Modeling in Forecasting Dengue
Mosquito Density in Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines. Poster Presented at the 45th
Anniversary and Annual Scientific Conference of the Pest Management Council of
the Philippines, Inc., Cebu City, 2014.
De Las Llagas LA, Medina AC. Establishment of Sensitive Vector Indicator for
Dengue Surveillance. DOH-Research Compendium 1993-2001. Manila: HRD-
HPDPB; 2002. 106-108.
De Las Llagas LA, Mistica MS, Bertuso AG. Dengue Mosquito Ovitrapping and
Preventive Fogging Trials in the Philippines. The Philippine Entomologist 2007; 21:
136-145.

References
Honório NA, Codeço CT, Alves FC, Magalhães, MA, Lourenço-De-Oliveira R. Temporal
Distribution of Aedes aegypti in Different Districts of Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, Measured
by Two Types of Traps. Entomological Society of America 2009; 46: 101-114.
Jacob WL, Bevier GA. Application of Ovitraps in the U.S. Aedes aegypti Eradication
Program. Mosquito News 1969; 29: 55-62.
Lee H. Aedes Ovitrap and Larval Survey in Several Suburban Communities in
Selangor, Malaysia. Mosquito-Borne Diseases Bulletin 1992; 9: 9-15.
Lian CW, Chan MS, Wang YC. Spatial Environmental and Entomological Risk
Factors Analysis on a Rural Dengue Outbreak in Landee District in Sarawak,
Malaysia. Tropical Biomedicine 2006; 23: 85-96.
National Vector Borne Diseases Control Program (NVBDCP). Investigation &
Control of Outbreaks – DF & DHF. Delhi: NVBDCP, 1998.

References
Ocampo VR, De Las Llagas LA, Bertuso AG et al. Dengue Vector Surveillance
in Selected Schools in the National Capital Region (NCR) 2014. Unpublished
Report.
Salazar NP, Baltazar JC, Chan VF. Dengue-Dengue Project: A WHO Funded
Project 1978-1979. Unpublished Report.
Williams CR, Long, S.A., Webb, C.E. Bitzhenner, M., Geier, M., Russell, R.C.,
and Ritchie, S.A. Aedes aegypti Population Sampling Using BG-Sentinel Traps
in North Queensland Australia: Statistical Considerations for Trap Deployment
and Sampling Strategy. Entomological Society of America 2007; 44: 345-350.
Yap HH. Distribution of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) in
Small Towns and Villages of Penang Island, Malaysia – An Ovitrap Survey. Southeast
Asian. J. Trop. Med. Public Health 1975; 6: 519-524.


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A Prediction Model

for Mosquito Density1

Lisa Grace S. Bersales, PhD2 and Lilian A. de las Llagas,PhD3

13th National Convention on Statistics

•Motivation for the Study

13th National Convention on Statistics

• Mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) are preventable

13th National Convention on Statistics

13th National Convention on Statistics

• active pest surveillance is not routinely done

13th National Convention on Statistics

• without an active mosquito surveillance, this threshold size

13th National Convention on Statistics

A Mosquito Density Prediction Model

13th National Convention on Statistics

• To collect field data as inputs to a statistical model

13th National Convention on Statistics

13th National Convention on Statistics

1. Conspecific attraction No. of gravid females RH (%)

4. Mosquito adult trap (MAT)

Source reduction No. of surviving pupae Air and Water Temperature

Household storing, filling Rainfall (inundation)

To have a readily available and accessible mosquito density,

The model serving as an early warning device to prompt the

13th National Convention on Statistics

13th National Convention on Statistics

13th National Convention on Statistics

4.2 Synoptic- and macro-climate readings

5. Ovitrap surveillance system procedures and activities

6. Data collection and management

13th National Convention on Statistics

TYPE 3 6 MONTH 4 MONTHS

Climate Map delineated based on Modified Coronas Classification (PAGASA)

Period Covered to date for estimating the model: July 2015-

13th National Convention on Statistics

•Productive Container Index

13th National Convention on Statistics

13th National Convention on Statistics

Predictor Coefficient P-value

Constant 72.21 0.43

13th National Convention on Statistics

13th National Convention on Statistics

Inverted AR Roots 0.5 .19-.19i .19+.19i -.19+.19i

13th National Convention on Statistics

Measure of Forecasting Performance:

13th National Convention on Statistics

forecast for OI Percentage

13th National Convention on Statistics

• Data Collection from June 2016 to evaluate

• Geospatial map of predicted ovitrap index

13th National Convention on Statistics

13th National Convention on Statistics

13th National Convention on Statistics

13th National Convention on Statistics

13th National Convention on Statistics

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