Bayes’

Theorem
Thomas Bayes

Born on 1702 in
London, England
and died on April
7, 1761 at the age
of 59.
• He is an English Theologian
and Mathematician.
• He has greatly contributed in
the field of probability and
statistics and his widely
known contribution was his
formulated theorem that
bears his name: The…
 Bayes’
Theorem
What is Bayes’ Theorem?
- describes the probability
of an event, based on prior
knowledge of conditions
that might be related to the
event.
Formula:

𝑃
𝐵
𝐴
 𝑃(𝐴)
P (A/B)=
𝑃(𝐵)
Example :

A marble is chosen at random from a set

of marbles divided into two boxes. The
first box contains 3 red and 8 white
marbles while the second box contains 4
red and 5 white marbles. A marble is
selected at random from either of the
two boxes and it is white. What is the
probability that the marble came from
the first box?
 Examples:
Approximately 1% of women aged 40-50 have breast cancer. A women with breast
cancer has 90% chance of positive test from a mammogram,
While a woman without breast cancer has 10% chance of false positive result.
What is the probability a woman has breast cancer given that she just had a
positive test?